I spend a lot of time in my professional life talking to people about writing and storytelling. One of the more powerful tools to draw people in to learning (or buying) something new is to anchor a concept in a time-tested framework. If you want understand something, frame it up in a narrative arc people recognize. I spent some time earlier this week taping a segment for the Rakes Report with Chris and Sam. I couldn’t resist the temptation to fit this year’s Notre Dame Men’s Basketball season into a familiar pattern. Let’s review the year through the lens of the classic hero’s journey.

ACT I

In the first act of the hero’s journey, the author establishes the characters and setting. They draw the reader in to the protagonist’s world. This season began anew for ND hoops fans. For the first time in over 20 years, Mike Brey wasn’t at the helm. Departures up and down the roster left only little-used J.R. Konieczny and Matt Zona as the only familiar faces. Early season whispers about a secret scrimmage with Xavier gave reason for hope. Perhaps Micah Shrewsberry’s mix of freshmen and transfers wouldn’t fulfill the sad destiny most ACC writers anticipated. The Irish were picked dead last in most preseason publications.

ACT II

Once the author establishes the characters and setting, we commence with the rising action. The Irish started the year with decidedly mixed results. Wins against Niagra, Oklahoma St, Maryland Eastern Shore and Western Michigan gave some glimmers of hope. Blowouts against Marquette and Auburn weren’t unexpected. These were top 20 teams. The primary concern through the pre-season run was the propensity to lose to teams in the 100’ish range in KenPom’s rankings. They myraid of shot clock violations and poor shooting nights felt like they were adding up at an alarming pace.

In most great hero stories, there’s a spot where the protagonist hits rock bottom. In this story, that moment is easy to identify. Notre Dame lost to 260th ranked The Citadel on Tuesday 12/19/2023. At home. The Bulldogs were paced by former ND walk-on Elijah Morgan. The Fighting Irish scored 16 points in the second half of a college basketball game. At home. Coach Shrewsberry lit in to his team in the media, and fans everywhere were left asking if we’d somehow get relegated out of the ACC. In our 18S writers chat, I set the O/U of ACC wins at 0.5 after that game (and hit the under).

Thankfully, I was proven wrong 11 days later when ND soundly beat Virginia at home. Even more surprising, they scored 76 points against a stingy opponent. Another win in Atlanta made my meager prediction look silly. However, not all progress is linear, and a 7 game ACC losing streak seemed to indicate ND might have hit a wall.

Throughout all the losses though, you could see signs of progress. The shot clock violations tailed off. The defensive structure was sound. The Irish frequently held teams below their season efficiency numbers. Then, on February 10th, it happened. Notre Dame beat 54th ranked VT at home. In fact, Micah Shrewsberry’s team won 5 out of 6 ACC games. A second half surge fell just short of making it 6-of-6 and ruining Jim Boeheim Day at Syracuse. A win there might have qualified Shrewsberry for early sainthood.

This was the climax of the season. The defensive effort sustained while the offense finally started to click. Braden Shrewsberry’s shot went from liability to strength and Markus Burton put his team on his back. Carey Booth and Tae Davis flashed encouraging signs.

ACT III

The third act is where we get resolving action and perhaps set the stage for the sequel. North Carolina provided a cold wet blanket of reality in Chapel Hill. The Irish couldn’t pull out a road win at VT to close the season. They did, however go 3-for-3 against GT picking up an ACCT win in DC. Wake Forest put a definitive end to any Wolfpack’ish 5-wins-in-5-days bid stealing dreams.

Markus Burton put his stamp on the league. He’s ND’s first ACC Rookie of the Year. Burton earned 46 votes, more than double 2nd place finisher Jared McCain from Duke. The diminutive hometown hero was nothing short of spectacular.

Where do we go from here:

For years I’ve said that my bar for ND men’s hoops success is a bid to the dance. When you get one, you had a good year. When you don’t, you didn’t. The line is pretty clear. For this team in this situation, that was never a fair bar. As fans, we wanted to see signs of life. We wanted to see young guys fighting and playing hard and a coaching staff that energized the program. From that lens, the year was a resounding success. Eight victories over ACC teams is nearly double what I expected before the season tipped off.

  • What I really wanted to see were signs that Shrewsberry is the guy to steer the ship going forward. There were certainly times where you could question his offensive approach, but that improved dramatically over the course of the season. If you’re an optimist, let’s look for places to hang hope:
    Notre Dame finished 37th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive rankings. That number is better than any team since Jon MacLeod’s 1997 season and a marked improvement ofvery a defense that finished the last 3 years ranked 255th, 69th, and 203rd.
  • To be clear, I don’t want ND to turn in to a Tony Bennett style slog at all. We need to see better than a 243rd rank in KP’s offensive numbers. That said, shooting splits looked way better later in the year. Just look at Braden Shrewsberry’s three point shooting numbers by month: Nov: 27%, Dec: 26%, Jan 47%, Feb 45%, and March: 33%. When guys started settling in to roles, they started to find their shots and their stroke. The signs are there.
  • A cursory glance at KP game logs confirmed what I suspected with the eye-test. ND generally improved and outscored opponents in the second half of games. The pessimist would love to see Shrewsberry’s staff develop better game plans. For me, being able to put meaningful adjustments in with such a young team is an encouraging sign of sound coaching.
  • Markus Burton never hit the wall and played his best ball at the end of the year.

Most importantly, an optimist will hang their hat on this being the least experienced and least talented roster Shrewsberry will field in his time in South Bend. Early signs report to great recruiting hustle. Now we need to hope he can successfully navigate NIL/Portal politics to hold a roster together (please stay Markus).

Speaking of the roster, let’s run down ND’s talent:

Markus Burton – It all begins and ends with the ACC Rookie of the Year. He’s a 5’11” firecracker who ranked 8th nationally in utilization rate (number of offensive possessions that end in a shot, assist, or turnover by him). His shooting splits of 47/30/82 are really strong and show he has a stroke that will likely improve over time. Most importantly, he’s clearly a competitor who plays hard and leads by example. Here’s to hoping John Paxson and the NIL collective find a way to keep him at ND.

Tae Davis – I know I said on the pod that Carey Booth is the most likely NBA guy on this team, but I think that’s underselling Davis. At 6’9″ 208 with fantastic athleticisim, he has an NBA body. His 55/18/72 shooting splits, however, are not very NBA-like. A guy who can shoot 72% from the line likely has a stroke that can work. Davis just hasn’t found it yet. Despite teams backing off him, Davis still slashed, drove, and bullied his way to the rim where he’s an explosive finisher. He’s a plus defender and rebounder and a guy you can certainly work with.

Braden Shrewsberry – I’ve coached my kid. It is hard. Doing it in youth league hoops is a lot easier than doing it on a national stage in an ACC program. Cheers to Micah and Braden (and frankly, Molly Shrewsberry) for making it work. I detailed Braden’s shooting by month above. I still think there are times where his floor/situational awareness could improve, but he’s also an 18 year old freshman. He also suffers an artificially bar there as “a coach’s kid.” He’ll be valuable for floor spacing going forward.

Carey Booth – I’m bullish on Booth. He looks like he’s still growing at 6’10”, and I’m hoping a year of training table and weights help him pop. He’s got great ball skills and a good looking jumper. Floor-spacing, athletic bigs are always useful. His defensive work was also impressive and he used his wingspan to block shots and rebound well on that end.

Kebba Njie – This dude plays hard. You absolutely can not knock Njie’s motor. He’s a big body (50 lbs heavier than either Booth or Davis) who moves his feet well and defends well. He’s a solid rebounder too. Here’s the worry with Kebba, his shooting splits are 40/13/76. I can accept he’s not a 3 point spacing big. He’s definitely a good roll man and cutter. He could also play off the block, but you can’t have your starting big sitting on a 38% eFG number. For reference, Matt Zona ended the year at 53% eFG. If you think of Kebba playing a role closer to Zach Auguste, that number needs to be in the high 50’s for him to impact the game. If I’m Micah Shrewsberry, I’d prescribe a few hours a day of the ol’ Mikan Drill alongside a bunch of drop step finishes, and half hooks for Kebba this summer. He just needs to develop a little more touch around the rim to keep defenses honest.

JR Konieczny – JR had a solid year. The hometown guy put on noticable bulk and finally saw the floor for Notre Dame this year. His 47/33/84 shooting splits are solid. At 6’7″ 204, he likely remains a solid rotation piece.

If Shrewsberry holds on to all these guys and gets Sir Mohammed integrated, he’s got a core that can work. Pieces like Logan Imes and Julian Roper give him additional back court depth and insurance against injury.

Most importantly, he’s not beginning the 2024-25 season from scratch. He gets a full offseason with this crew. He isn’t teaching his defense from scratch. The foundation is there. Shrewsberry and his staff can work on their offensive vision for this team. I expect to see a lot more effective offensive execution from the jump next year. This year saw a lot of possessions made up of dribble hand offs and weave-like movement above the FT line for 28 of the 30 seconds of the shot clock. It would be great to see a bit more pace (vs. 336th ranked). The key with this group will be using PnR and DHO to create rotation and then attacking close-outs. Not everyone on the roster is a threat from deep, but you can generate spacing by forcing rotation and getting multiple drive-and-kick looks in the same possession. I think you’re going to see a LOT more of that from the Irish next year.

That’s a lot of optimism in a few paragraphs. It begs the question where do we see this team a year from now. I think a reasonable expectation is to progress to .500 in league play. That’s where I’m setting my “bar” for good/bad year next year. That said, I can squint and see the bubble for this group. If things break the right way, I could see a world where Selection Sunday feels like a thrill again. Even if it ends in outrage at the committee, that would be an incredible sign that Micah Shrewsberry has the program headed the right way.