The Irish offense finished 2023 ranked 14th in Offensive F+, which feels like a “meets expectations” grade from where things stood in the preseason. Still, the game-by-game output that placed Notre Dame there feels underwhelming – Sam Hartman and company throttled some inferior opponents but struggled to put points on the board in most of the season’s biggest games.

Now the offense has been given a complete makeover – upgrading Gerad Parker for Mike Denbrock, bringing in Riley Leonard as a dangerous dual-threat QB, overhauling the wide receiver room via the transfer portal, and a massive youth movement on the offensive line. Despite the lack of continuity, most projections still have the ND offense somewhere between 10th-20th nationally. Let’s break down what’s fueling that optimism and upside as well as the places things could fall apart this fall.

The Notre Dame Running Game

2023 was a peak year for the Irish running game. Audric Estime, star tackles leading a veteran OL, and a dangerous enough passing attack combined for an extremely reliable attack on the ground. Notre Dame was both efficient and explosive, finishing nationally 4th in expected points added (EPA) per rush.

Against the softer defenses on the schedule, Estime and the stable of replacements feasted. Only Duke truly held the rushing offense to an inefficient game on the ground – and a few explosive runs ultimately bailed out the offense and salvaged that win with the ND receiving corps decimated.

The biggest critique on this strong unit is that it wasn’t dominant against the tougher defenses on the schedule. Against Ohio State the Irish ground out a pretty efficient performance but struggled in short yardage and couldn’t find explosive runs. With the entire team looking worn down at Louisville the offensive line was in disarray and struggled to bail out the sputtering aerial attack. At Clemson some initial success on the ground faded and then some late Hartman scrambles inflate the overall numbers. There was no 2022 Clemson performance where the Irish could impose their will on a solid opposing defense (admittedly a high bar, but disappointing).

What will 2024 bring?

With so few returning key pieces, it’s hard to know what to expect for the 2024 rushing attack. The elephant in the room is the offensive line, which was already set for a step back before Charles Jagusah’s season-ending injury. The lines’ inexperience doesn’t mean the rushing attack will fall off a cliff, but it makes significant regression in efficiency (including stuffs allowed) very likely. Joe Rudolph and Mike Denbrock’s primary job will be mitigating that drop-off, and seeking ways to offset it with explosiveness.

Estime was spectacular in 2023, but Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price provide a high floor as they take on higher volume this fall. Neither were quite as efficient as Estime, but both flashed explosive traits both on tape and by the numbers. Surprisingly for a true freshman, Love was less boom or bust than Price – better avoiding negative plays but breaking long runs less frequently.

Price’s advanced numbers are very encouraging, with an explosive rate rivaling Estime and yards after contact and missed tackle rates in the same ballpark. His high stuff rate I’d judge as slightly random and inflated thanks to situational usage – but it’s something to monitor moving into the fall.

Payne will be missed as another experienced option with a clear role, but his numbers from carries last year show a clear drop-off versus the other backs. His short-down usage was a little puzzling given his performance converting those runs was just ok – in very small samples, Love and Price (plus Leonard) should comfortably take on that role.

Depth is the real concern for the running back room – true freshmen Aneyas Williams and Kedren Young will both see the field and are very close to being relied on in meaningful moments. Both appear physically ready and have positive practice buzz, but have the usual first-year hurdles to clear understanding the offense, blocking, and more.

The biggest reason for optimism is the addition of Riley Leonard’s legs. At Duke he was arguably the second best rushing QB the past two years among power conference QBs (trailing only Jayden Daniels). Stacked against the most successful recent dual-threats for the Irish, he still stands apart. Leonard adds an immediate element of explosiveness and efficiency when things get bogged down, and avoids negative plays. He should make life easier in the red zone and short yardage, and has terrific feet and balance (check out the yards after contact and missed tackle rate!).

 

Projecting the ceiling and floor

Can Leonard and the talented young running backs overcome the expected drop-off from the offensive line? Probably not – I anticipate a big decline in Notre Dame’s rushing efficiency this year. Offsetting this with a bump in explosiveness is the best bet the Irish have for a winning formula on the ground.

The best-case scenario is probably a rushing attack that’s something like 2018, where the Irish had many negative rushing plays and struggled to find consistent efficiency but overcame those issues with Dexter Williams’ (and to a lesser extent, Ian Book’s) explosiveness and a complementary passing attack. In this ideal world Mike Denbrock is mitigating the line’s issues as the group matures, and the new faces perform better than expected. With a schedule that should only feature 4-5 close games, Notre Dame can lean heavily on Leonard to find success in those games against the toughest defenses and preserve his legs and health in the others.

Most likely, though? The running game will find success against the middle and bottom parts of the schedule but struggle in big games – something that’s been an issue even for the best Irish OLs in recent memory against the toughest defenses. Can the run game make enough critical plays – either breaking off a long gain or two, or converting power run situations – to be enough? A top 20-30 unit seems like a solid base case.

The worst-case scenario is that there’s so many issues with blocking that the entire offense is undermined – think the first half of 2021. This is unlikely with Leonard taking the place of Jack Coan, but the end result could be similar – the offense struggles enough that some games that shouldn’t be close suddenly are single-possession games where anything could happen. In this world the Notre Dame rushing attack is reliant on explosive plays and the rushing game has so many negative plays and lapses that it frequently kills drives by putting the offense in passing downs.

The Notre Dame Passing Game

The 2023 passing attack looks incredible in a spreadsheet. Zooming out, the Drew Pyne to Sam Hartman upgrade worked as expected, boosting production across the board to levels the Irish offense hadn’t seen in year. The passing game was efficient, explosive, and avoided negative plays.

Once you look deeper, though, you can see some of the feast-or-famine performances that lead to the gaudy season-long numbers. Hartman and company destroyed the lower-tier competition with six games averaging over 10 yards per pass play including the Sun Bowl win. But like with the running game, against top defenses things bogged down significantly, with below average efficiency against NC State (saved by explosive plays), Duke (explosiveness also rescuing things), USC (masked by the defensive masterclass), and the losses to Louisville and Clemson that highlighted Hartman’s big-game struggles.

Ohio State was an outlier – the passing game shined early on but wasn’t explosive enough to translate into consistent points, leading drives to fizzle out. As the game progressed, the offense leaned more on the rushing attack (64% early down run rate) and there were so few possessions and drives for the strong passing performance to feel as impactful.

An overhauled receiver room

Of course, these game by game numbers gloss over a lot of context. By the Duke and Louisville games the wide receiver room was down to only four healthy scholarship players. The lack of a true WR1 limited the passing game – Mitchell Evans stepped into that void as the top receiving threat, but the Irish offense went through the critical six game stretch of the season (Ohio State – Clemson) with just one game where a wide receiver caught more than three passes (Chris Tyree 4-29 at Clemson).

It’s fascinating to break down the numbers of the 2023 receivers when targeted because of how even targets were distributed – 8 receivers and tight ends had 25 targets, with just one player (Rico Flores) over 40. We can’t go too far comparing these numbers since there is so much the receivers don’t control – like when they are targeted and how accurate those targets are. But to see the production on a per route or per target basis can still help us see who did more when the offense threw the ball their way.

The departures: On paper, there’s a lot of lost volume with the transfers of Chris Tyree, Rico Flores, Tobias Merriweather, and Holden Staes. Tyree stands out among those losses as one of the most explosive and productive receivers when targeted – but it’s important to recognize how little production we are working with across this entire group. Tyree was the most productive wide receiver and yet his average box score output was 2.2 catches and 40.3 yards per game. Those snaps moving to some combination of Jaden Greathouse, Jordan Faison, and Jayden Harrison in the slot provides similar explosive upside with more versatility and youth.

Flores and Merriweather sting less simply because they struggled with production even with solid QB play from Hartman. Both were probably relied upon too much (especially Flores being counted on to play a major role as a true freshman), but were still some of the least efficient receiving options when targeted.

Returning upside: Mitchell Evans unexpectedly stepped into the role as Notre Dame’s most reliable receiving threat, and shined in big games with a significant volume of targets. His health will be a lingering question, but he should again be a major asset that brings an invaluable combination of efficiency and explosiveness to the passing attack. It’s not a fair comparison with Hartman vs. Drew Pyne delivering passes and the incredible volume his predecessor took on, but his per snap and per target metrics compare favorably with Michael Mayer’s.

I don’t think you can make much of Jayden Thomas and Jaden Greathouse’s production last year. Both were hampered by injuries and likely pushed back into time before back to 100%. At this point, we know who Thomas is when he’s healthy – a reliable, efficient option who can be productive in a supporting role. He may be schemed into explosive plays but isn’t likely to hit home runs (although he has slimmed down this offseason).

Greathouse is a wild card as the spring and fall buzz have positioned him as the potential WR1 (while recognizing there’s probably no one dominant receiver). That type of sophomore leap is definitely possible with his pedigree and a well-rounded skillset, and it feels like the staff is setting Greathouse up for success with the bulk of slot receiver snaps.

That means more reps for the final member of this group, Jordan Faison, out wide. And whew, Faison’s numbers from his freshman season are impressive in a small sample. He boasts a ton of explosive upside both as a deep ball threat as well as a dangerous YAC option in the screen and short passing game.

It’s been a long time since the Irish have had a traditional WR development success story with steady progress each year (maybe since Chase Claypool?). The last few candidates with flashy freshman seasons (Lorenzo Styles, Braden Lenzy, and more) have seen setbacks due to injury, big-picture passing game struggles, and other setbacks. But Faison and Greathouse offer a chance for Notre Dame to set a strong foundation at the position for the next few years.

The transfers: Last but certainly not least, Beaux Collins and Kris Mitchell come into a wide open receiver room to boost the quality depth – ultimately raising the floor and ceiling. While both were likely attracted by the playing time and high profile opportunity in South Bend to boost their pro prospects, their incoming stories are almost polar opposites.

Mitchell comes in from FIU having proven his bona fides as a top receiving option with high volume – just at a lower level of competition. His numbers are fairly well rounded, but he profiles as more of an explosive threat than many of Notre Dame’s other outside receiving options. Will the G5 to P4 transition be seamless, or will he be more of a role player? The ceiling feels as high as WR1 in this offense with a floor where he’s firmly in the 5th or 6th option out of the rotation.

Collins has very different questions to address. His Clemson pedigree assures the quality of competition adjustment won’t be an issue. But the veteran struggled to produce consistently and efficiently within the shaky Tiger offense. There’s not a lot to love about his statistical profile with some drop questions and very little yard after the catch ability.

However! The fall camp buzz has been overwhelmingly positive about Collins physically impressing and filling an area of high unmet need at the boundary receiver. Film guys far smarter than me have made a strong argument that Collins was mis-used at Clemson in a passing offense that flopped.

The OL elephant in the room

This is normally the section where I’d pull in a lot of offensive line stats from the past few years, do a little depth chart run down, and make some predictions. But I’m not sure it’s all that helpful! The line was very good last year – preventing sacks and negative plays in general, and enabling extremely high efficiency in the rushing game.

But with four new starters, there’s really no data to go off of here. It’s an outstanding question that will simply need to be monitored throughout the season. Horrible offensive line play – like in the beginning of 2021 for Notre Dame, or the late Jimbo Fisher era at FSU- can absolutely tank an entire offense, even with solid QB and skill position talent. However, I don’t think the floor is likely to totally fall out on this group – there’s too much pedigree with blue chip talent and with the exception of Anthonie Knapp, a lot of guys stepping into roles that have won battles and seem prepared to step into greater roles.

What’s clear is that the Irish will need every ounce of Mike Denbrock’s experience to mitigate the offensive line as the weak link in this unit (and really the team as a whole). Especially against the best defenses on the schedule, there’s several different approaches as options – will he employ tons of screens, play-action, and roll-outs for Leonard to slow down opposing pass rushes? Will he be fairly conservative on early downs and 3rd and longs, knowing the nasty ND defense means he shouldn’t need to press? Or if the efficiency to sustain long drives isn’t there, will he look to scheme up a few calculated explosive shots to manufacture enough points to get the job done?

Predictions and Probabilities

Notre Dame’s projected F+ rating (11th nationally) feels ambitious – for me more like a ceiling case than the likely outcome. I’d bet this is the driver in the difference you see between SP+ and FEI projections and the early points spreads for ND’s biggest games (for example, the Irish favored in College Station versus something like a 3-point underdog). Vegas has downgraded the ND offense a bit more than the projection systems – which just look at enough returning pieces from an offense power-rated 14th last season to feel more confident.

I’d bet on the Irish finishing closer to 20th in F+ – buoyed by strong performances against weaker defenses but struggling for long stretches in the matchups with Texas A&M, Louisville, and FSU. The ideal formula feels like a fairly efficient but very explosive rushing game that’s the backbone of the offense, complemented by an efficient passing game (with some explosive upside). I’m a little skeptical of the wide receiver situation being a true strength in the critical games on the schedule – yes, depth issues have been addressed, but I’m wary of who the offense can rely on to get open outside of a recovering Mitchell Evans. No true WR1 (and the time it may take to figure out the best allocation of snaps with some duplicative strengths in the slot) is a red flag.

I don’t think there’s man likely outcomes where the bottom falls out offensively, but it would look something like this: the offensive line struggles all year, Leonard gets banged up early, and the skill position talent underachieves expectations and can’t compensate for the line woes. These issues pop up in the big games on the schedule and put some of the middle tier games of the schedule at risk.

The best news here will come in the defensive deep dive. There’s a formula where even a 20th best offense and top-5 defense still adds up to a top 5-10 quality team – which against Notre Dame’s cushy schedule in 2024, should definitely make the playoff.