The NFL Draft has been going on since 1936 and another edition begins today with the first round. Things kick off at 8 PM ET on either ESPN (are there enough people left!??) or the NFL Network.
Of course, our Irish eyes will be focused on one Mr. DeShone Kizer as he is kinda sorta predicted to be a first round pick and has decided to accept the league’s invitation to the ceremonies in person tonight. If he’s selected before Thursday is over it’ll be the 7th pick in the first round for Notre Dame since Brian Kelly arrived behind Ronnie Stanley, Will Fuller, Zack Martin, Tyler Eifert, Michael Floyd, and Harrison Smith.
No matter what happens tonight, Kizer was able to parlay leaving early into an endorsement deal with the Jordan brand. Get that gear!
DeShone Kizer had signed a deal with Jordan Brand. Was there ever a doubt? pic.twitter.com/a9ee46TcLX
— Jordan Strack (@JordanStrack) April 24, 2017
With only 32 options we know there’s a limit for Kizer’s selection tomorrow. Here’s the team’s we can likely rule out for picking him:
Jaguars, Titans, Jets, Chargers, Panthers, Bengals, Bills, Saints, Eagles, Colts, Ravens, Redskins, Buccaneers, Broncos, Lions, Dolphins, Giants, Raiders, Seahawks, Cowboys, Packers, Falcons, Saints.
That leaves:
49ers (2nd)- The vast majority of mock drafts don’t have San Francisco taking a quarterback.
Bears (3rd)- Same as above.
Browns (12th)- Their second pick seems to be trending hard towards one of the quarterbacks–and moving up to do so–while they have all but locked up Myles Garrett with the No. 1 overall selection.
Cardinals (13th)- Kizer worked out for Arizona and has been linked here just about as much as anywhere else.
Texans (25th)- This is an interesting spot because it’s usually a pick by a very good team and Kizer could very well start multiple games as a rookie if he heads to Houston. Poor quarterback depth is a killer.
Chiefs (27th)- Lots of talk about fit and whatnot but historically not a Chiefs move. Haven’t they skipped on taking a quarterback in the first round every year since 1647?
Steelers (30th)- Some very Mock Draft-y talk lately that the Steelers are interested in Kizer as a successor for Big Ben a couple years down the road.
Not much has changed since I wrote about Kizer’s landing spot a couple months ago. Unless there’s a complete wildcard from the list above (Jaguars or maybe the Jets they have just over $8 million on their cap to quarterbacks with a 1-year deal for $6 million to McCown taking up nearly all of that money) the odds don’t look great for Kizer.
Bruce Arians is too embattled and I can’t see the Cardinals going with a quasi rebuild pick with Palmer ($24.1 million) and Stanton ($4 million) eating up a ton of cap space.
I’d pretty much cross the Steelers off, as well. A team on the cusp of challenging for a Super Bowl and perennially in the playoffs probably isn’t thinking about 2 or 3 years down the road.
Essentially, we’re looking at the Browns or Texans. Every time I think it’s just those two teams someone like Arizona moving up a bit in the 2nd round makes so much more sense.
Who knows, this is supposed to be one of the more mysterious drafts in recent memory. Things could get wild once Garrett is picked. I’d place my odds for Kizer like this:
Top 15- 20%
Second Half 1st Round- 30%
Second Round- 50%
Ya’ll Crazy if He Goes Top 10- Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
A small white running back who isn’t really that great of a running back? If you want a plus-Theo Riddick that’s cool but it’s not worth a pick this high.
Eyeing Skeptically But Probably a Good Pro- O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama
You could almost say Howard’s only had two great games over 4 years at Alabama, yet they both came in the National Championship. Physically there’s a lot to love but he might be one of the highest tight ends ever drafted and maybe the highest since Vernon Davis went 6th overall.
Take His Rookie of the Year Odds- John Ross, WR, Washington
He’s got the type of speed that’s going to make him a huge threat right out of the gate and he’s predicted to go in the second half of the first round and to a decent quarterback at worst.
Wait, That Guy Is That Good- Haason Reddick, LB, Temple
A trio of excellent Temple defenders all slid pretty far in last year’s draft but all the same a 4th pick in 2 years for the Owls on one side of the ball is pretty great, never mind a 1st round selection. It’d be just their 2nd pick in the 1st round in the last 30 years.
Stay Away- Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
Low 4-star recruit. One year of starting experience. Played in a heavy spread offense. Trying to change his name from Mitch to Mitchell now. Basically an uglier Tony Romo. What more signs do we need that Trubisky is going to be a huge bust?
It would be such a Browns move to draft Mitchell “my team was much better with me as a backup to a guy who didn’t get drafted” Trubisky #1 overall. Can’t wait.
Haha you beat me to the punch. After Eric said stay away from Trubisky that basically sealed the Browns drafting him (I’m also a Browns fan.) . So 0% chance Kizer goes to the Browns. Unless they draft two QB’s in the first round in hopes one works out. What’s the analytics on that?
The skins showed that drafting a second QB in a later round can work. Might not be a bad idea for you guys to double dip with all those picks.
My proposal for the Browns: take Trubisky #1, then Watson/Mahomes at 12, then trade into the bottom of the first for Kizer. Then run a 3 headed monster backfield where everyone is a threat to pass.
Eh, I say wait and draft Ian Book as the 3rd member of that backfield in 2 years
“I’d pretty much cross the Steelers off, as well. A team on the cusp of challenging for a Super Bowl and perennially in the playoffs probably isn’t thinking about 2 or 3 years down the road.”
Steelers fan here, I wouldn’t be so sure. They’re a very patient organization. Ben was openly talking about “considering” retirement just a few months ago. Although it was not taken very seriously because it wasn’t very serious, Roethlisberger is 35 years old and has a TON of damage on him, and I believe contractually the Steelers could dump him after 2 more seasons and be pretty OK.
With no real pressing 1st round needs (besides the OLB they love to draft first round seemingly every year, although they could use another CB too), this could be a perfect year for the Steelers to draft a successor to groom for 2 years at QB. One of the things heavily mentioned when they drafted Ben is “if you don’t have a QB, you don’t have a chance” so I do believe the Steelers would consider Kizer, if on the board at 30, assuming that they really like him and think they can grow him into the next 10+ year starter.
Wouldn’t you still be surprised? I’m big on the top organizations making decisions with their locker room in my mind. I have a hard time seeing those guys believing their all set to go and accepting of a bit of a flyer to pan out a few years down the road. That’s a tough conversation.
I wouldn’t have been surprised. Ben’s 35 and himself floated the idea that he won’t be around forever just weeks ago. I don’t think he really should be offended or alarmed if/when the day comes that the Steelers start making plans for their future without him. It’s a cut-throat league like that. I’m sure it would have a lot of the Favre/Rodgers drama, since all high level players have a certain level of ego and would rather call their own shot than have the organization push them out. But maybe it works out OK, Tom Brady doesn’t freak out when the Pats take guys like Garoppolo with high picks, he just goes about his business. Ideally it would have been the same type of concept.
You make sense on the “a bit of a flyer” and that looks to have been accurate since they obviously didn’t like him THAT much at 30 after all. They shouldn’t have picked a QB just to pick a QB this year if they didn’t have him highly rated. I didn’t mean to portray they should have taken a gamble, but if they had a QB with a 1st round grade still on the board, it makes a lot of sense to draft him.
But with NFL teams going crazy every year to trade the farm to move up and over-draft QBs, I do think it would be very wise for a team like the Steelers (or Saints, or Cardinals) to draft a QB if one falls in their lap and they had him rated well. And Pittsburgh had an advantage that ARI and NO didn’t, since the Steelers have a better all-around team and less glaring immediate needs to fill with a late 1st rounder. At best, you either get your QB of the future or can maybe flip him for more high picks if the starter is still around (ala the current NE situation). Or just stay patient and have a lot of time to decided (also like the NE situation).
I guess my overall point is….
A) It’s incredibly rare for teams to draft a QB in the first round when they have an established Pro Bowl QB (even if old) already on the roster. Has it ever happened besides Rodgers?
B) The Steelers seem like one of the 3 or 4 teams least likely to draft this way. Especially because of how they’re positioned in the league vis a vis the playoffs.
The Mahomes trade and pick could probably technically qualify, although Alex Smith may never have been a top 15 QB. The Cards were kind of in this boat, too. But even as they flashed on the screen last night they were top 10 in both defense and offense last year–picking a QB to groom down the road in the 1st round would be a very tough sell to the current players.
A) Well, I mean depending on how you would define the transition from elite QB to a younger replacement while he’s still there, it’s not all that rare (even back to the days of Young/Montana).
–The Colts kicked Peyton out the door for Andrew Luck. He had the unknown with his serious injury situation to help that decision but they could have kept their established veteran but opted for youth
–Atlanta moved on from Michael Vick (which…yeah, probably had to) for Matt Ryan.
–SD got Rivers high when they had Drew Brees (and was a former high 2nd round pick just 4 years earlier)
–Aforementioned Favre/Rodgers
–The Patriots are holding on to Garoppolo with at least the smokescreen they want to keep him for the future
–The Steelers even drafted Mark Malone with the last pick of the 1st round in 1980 and Bradshaw didn’t retire until 1983, so there’s even some franchise precedent for such an idea, and probably more times this was tried it’s just not remembered fondly since the new guy probably doesn’t become an elite QB like the old guy.
I would think it’s wise to try and find a replacement for your franchise QB as he ages while he’s still around, instead of trying to scramble to get someone on the fly.
B) I heard the Cards weren’t truly in the boat since Arians isn’t on the coolest of seats, he needs his 1st rounder to be an impact player. Tomlin isn’t going to get fired and that management probably has the luxury of a much longer leash to try and think against the grain.
Rivers and Brees is a good one, forgot they overlapped in San Diego. Although Brees wasn’t quite Brees until that 2004 season.
Still, using strictly 1st round selections that’s 2 cases in 20 years?
That’s just top of brain, I’m not really that invested to dig a lot more. My thought would be some might slip away if the younger guy ended up as a whimper, though it’s admittedly not a very common practice.
But even if it is a rare strategy, it doesn’t mean it’s an incorrect one. If Miami had invested more to develop a plan to move on for Marino their franchise would have been better off. Ditto Dallas and Aikman, etc, etc for so many elite QB’s who have retired and their team hasn’t had success in the years following, due to the lack of a capable successor.
I’d think in theory it would be better to take a guy with pedigree a bit before you need him, that he would have a better chance to be a star. Compared with stockpiling lower round QB’s and pray you end up with a Brady and not the 1,000 other guys who aren’t all that capable.
Josh Dobbs in the 4th round, 135th overall for the Steelers.
So I see. Meh, all in all I’d rather have taken a better prospect higher earlier but we’ll see how it works out. Not as if there was a surefire slam-dunk QB heading into the draft this year anyways, so maybe that’s counter to my argument all along.
I could see a team jumping back into the late first round to grab him and get that extra year on his first contract. The Chargers, Saints, and Steelers all should be thinking about the possibility of needing a new QB next year.
If the Bears, 49ers, and Browns all pass on QBs with their first picks (and the Browns pass with their 2nd pick as well), I could see them jumping back into the first round too. If Pittsburgh or New Orleans didn’t want a QB, they could definitely deal their late 1st round pick here. They could add another good pick in the draft without dropping too far.
Also, the Bills could definitely use a QB since they seem to not have much confidence in any QB on their roster for some reason.
Totally agree on Trubisky. He could not beat out a very mediocre quarterback ahead of him for 3 years! And now there’s talk about him going #1 (probably a smokescreen, but still). That’s nutty.
I’m in the camp that none of the QBs are worth a first round pick this year – they all have flaws or not enough experience. I like Kizer, but I completely agree with Kelly – he really could use another year in college to hone his skills (but I cannot fault a guy for going after the money).
If a team (like the Browns) is desperate for a QB, take a chance on one in the third round and/or gather some extra picks in next year’s draft that can be used for trading up. The defensive depth in this draft is just too good – teams should take advantage of it.
Interesting commentary here. As a new-ish football obsessive, I like having my opinion validated by “experts” so I’m thrilled you don’t think super highly of Trubitsky because I just can’t get behind that kid. I also don’t buy the top-20 hype for Mahomes — crazy physical tools but SOOOO unrefined.
I’m a little surprised you totally rule out the Chargers, Bills, Saints, Redskins, and Giants. Although I admit none of those teams need a QB, the Chargers, Saints, and Giants all will within 3 years and the Bills & ‘Skins QB rooms aren’t exactly peaceful, stable places. Any of those teams picking Kizer would be surprising, but I’d give them a snowball’s chance.
I’m kinda with MikeyB in that I can imagine a team jumping into the late first to take advantage of a QB slide a la Bridgewater in ’14. Could be any of these QBs, and why not Kizer?
I have a bet going with a skins fan on whether or not they will draft a QB. They just don’t seem sold on Cousins.
I think that was more people who won’t be taking him with their existing pick in the first round. If he drops to the end of the first, or top of the second, I would definitely think all those teams are in play. Maybe not the Giants as Eli, 36 years old, has been so healthy with them and based on recent trends it seems like playing until you are 39-40 is a pretty reasonable expectation. I would say the same for Rivers but he expressed a possible retirement if the team moved to LA, which they did. So who knows.
I don’t think you can rule out anyone after the first round.
I’ll predict the 49’ers take him at the top of Round #2
I kind of like that, too.
The best thing that could happen to DK is to get picked up by a team that doesn’t need him in 2017 or 2018. SD, Pitt, KC, AZ, NO, etc.
I think he could be a successful QB, but I also fear he’ll end up on a bad team that never gives him a chance.
NFL Network just mentioned Chiefs possibly looking to move up to take Mahomes.
Texas Tech QB who just lost to Iowa State 66-10 2 games ago is going to be the guy KC would pick? LOLOL.
They did it.
And my Bears take Trubisky as the 2nd pick in the draft.
I am sorry. Unless they trade him!
Are the Bears the new Browns?
Absolutely not. They aren’t good enough at being bad. They’ll somehow pull out an 8-8 season this year, 7-9 next year and then go 11-5 or something, but still be not a very good team. Cleveland is consistently a 5-win ceiling team with no upshot.
You have to start somewhere. This could be the beginning!
But the Browns are still the Browns. So the Bears can’t also be the Browns. You can’t out Cleveland Cleveland.
https://twitter.com/scoutrecruiting/status/857794693782003712
‘Crooting matters. And, while our class is pretty good considering we went 4-8 last year, to compete at the top level we need higher-ranked ‘croots than we’re getting, even in our current class. The difference from high-4 stars to 5 stars really does matter quite a bit.
What matters more than those raw numbers are the percentages. The percentages would probably support your point even more than simply the raw numbers.
That’s right. In 2015, Scout ended up with 37 5-stars. They had almost 300 4-stars. And it goes on from there.
Now I suspect someone will grab DK at the top of the 2nd round. It’ll be interesting to see who.
Do BK and Kizer go back to the draft tonight? What does Kizer wear? Gonna be tough to top that suit (tux?) from last night.
No offense to Kizer, but why did the NFL invite him to the draft? It was a 50/50 chance at best he would go in the first round. How many people do they invite?
I think 22 were invited and attended. Only ones not picked:
Kizer, Awuzi (Colorado), King (Washington), McDowell (MSU), and Robison (Alabama).
I would think so. I saw Kizer interviewed and he realized he may not get picked in the first round. He aid he’s there because he wants to be part of the experience so I’d be surprised if he wasn’t there again tonight.
Interesting. I didn’t realize they invited that many players. If they invite 22 players, then they would expect some of those to be around on day 2.
Murtaugh as the resident fashion aficionado, no comment on Kizer’s attire?
I was personally disappointed there weren’t more short-sleeve suits last night…
I thought it was okay.
Bit of a bold color combo but wasn’t feeling the whole package. He should’ve gone full lavender, IMO.
Apparently Kizer wasn’t there. At least they didn’t show him on TV come up and get a jersey and all that.
I think they only come up on stage for the first round. In the second round their gimmick is to have an NFL “Legend” read the name. I don’t watch much though, so I’m not certain.
So was this a pretty big mistake by Kizer to leave 2 years early as a late 2nd round pick?
I’m kinda happy (as a Browns fan) the Browns did take him (not necessarily for Kizer’s sake) because if Kizer can develop consistency he does have the tools (how many QB’s has that been said about?) so maybe for a low 2nd pick you get a top notch player. And then again, maybe not.
It was a bad decision for Kinzer. He is going to the place that quarterbacks go to die.
It may be a bad decision (usually people leave to go in the first round – and it’s hard to know how much of a chance he really will have to develop) – but it’s not his fault the Browns chose him.
Hard to say for sure:
(1) It’s not safe to assume that he would have been picked any higher next year. Josh Rosen/Sam Darnold are probably better prospects, and BK does not exactly have a great track record of developing quarterbacks. He could have had a Matt Barkley situation, where everyone assumed he’d be a surefire 1st rounder by coming back but instead falls quite a bit.
(2) If he ends up being a franchise quarterback in the NFL, better to be a second-round pick than a first-round pick, because there’s one fewer year on the rookie deal.
(3) Better to get paid something to develop as a quarterback than get paid nothing.
But, man, did it have to be the Browns?
Mark may fired. I know he trolled the heck out of us, but these ESPN layoffs are hard to watch.