Was I Sleeping? Have I Slept?
I wouldn’t blame anyone who feels like the early signing period snuck up on them – Notre Dame’s 2020 recruiting has been so quite for so long that it was easy to forget it was coming. The staff made big inroads early with its top targets and wrapped almost everyone up before the season started, which is a very odd feeling for those of us who have followed recruiting for a long time. We’ll touch on it a bit more below, but the early signing period has really changed things. Another big factor is that this Irish staff is far more aggressive on the trail than the ones that put together the 2014-17 classes, and arguably the most aggressive of Kelly’s tenure period.
Another huge element of this class is that nine – nine! – players will enroll early, which is the most Notre Dame has ever had. Those players are grad transfer Isaiah Pryor, who enrolled on Monday and is participating in bowl practices (but can’t play, if you were wondering), as well as incoming frosh Jordan Botelho, Jay Brunelle, Alexander Ehrensberger, Ramon Henderson, Rylie Mills, Caleb Offord, Drew Pyne, and Xavier Watts. It’ll be very interesting to see who from that group contributes in 2020, as it’s a mix of seemingly game-ready players and developmental prospects.
Finally, for the first time since I can remember, Notre Dame both didn’t lose a commit to another school and didn’t flip a commit from another school (although they reportedly came close with a couple). I’m not sure if that’s an anomaly this year of maybe a factor of kids wrapping things up earlier and feeling more secure in their decisions, but it’s something to watch going forward.
Coach Speak
Brian Kelly held a press conference yesterday to discuss the cycle and the signees to that point (Ramon Henderson would round out the class a few hours later). The full transcript is worth a read; here are a couple of nuggets that caught my eye:
Kelly on the early enrollees:
“So the other thing that stands out, obviously, is early enrollees, the ability to want to take that next challenge. We like the fact that nine of these young men have accepted that opportunity to come here early. They have excelled in high school to the point where they can in fact graduate early, come to Notre Dame and look at the next challenge, and that being here obviously in a collegiate environment. Doesn’t mean that they’re better. It just means that they are accepting a challenge that is a bit different. And so those nine will get a chance to begin their college career and, obviously, get a chance to be in spring ball and get working on their academic career.” [Yes, we like that too, Brian…]
Kelly on the lack of flipping, in or out:
“I think having this process be one where you’re on them earlier and have identified your prospects earlier. It feels like we have been recruiting these guys a lot longer, for me. And having a longer time in a relationship with them, that makes a bigger difference to me. I think that and feel that way over my time here that this is one where we have established, I think, a better calendar and a deeper evaluation protocol in the sense that we’re on them sooner and have been able to build that relationship.”Kelly with a Monty Python moment on what they’re looking for in cornerbacks:
What we’re talking about are two things, makeup speed, the ability to run and length. The third is to have the ability to play the ball in the air. That’s three.
You can also check out the official Notre Dame signing day coverage at UND.com – they have bios and videos of all the players, interviews with the coaches, etc. The official ND Football Twitter account posted videos yesterday for each signee with his parents narrating – they’re awesome, and were noticed in the national media. Check those out too.
Class Rankings by Service
247 Composite: 10th (2 five-stars, 7 four-stars, 9 three-stars, .9066 average rating)
247: 14th (9 four-stars, 8 three-stars, 1 two-star, 89.44 average rating)
Rivals: 15th (1 five-star, 9 four-stars, 7 three-stars, 1 two-star, 3.56 average stars)
ESPN: 13th (10 four-stars, 5 three-stars, 80.7 average rating)
Note that ESPN only has 17 five-stars in the class, and Chris Tyree is ranked #20 overall by them.
Class Composition
Here are the number of signees by position.
QB – 1
RB – 1
WR – 3
TE – 2
OL – 2
WDE – 1
SDE – 1/2
DT – 1/2
LB – 0
DB – 4
LS – 1
The 1/2 at SDE and DT rests on Rylie Mills – he’s ranked as a DE, played on the edge in high school, and might get a look there at Notre Dame as well. But I suspect he’ll move inside, and probably pretty quickly. Also, I list four DBs; that’s in the 2020 class proper, it doesn’t include grad transfer Isaiah Pryor. Who in addition to being on campus already, as noted, has two years of eligibility remaining.
We’ve had much discussion behind the scenes on the LB position in this class, particularly given that the staff reportedly passed on Ohio State signee Cody Simon. He’s the #123 overall recruit in the Composite and, yes, the younger brother of current Irish LB Shayne Simon. That seems like a hard kid to pass up, but there just isn’t room on the field for him – the 2020 roster will have a whopping nine linebackers with multiple years of eligibility remaining, and the staff has been very happy with all of them so far.
The lone specialist, long snapper Alex Peitsch, will have to step in immediately with senior John Shannon forgoing a fifth year. Shannon battled back issues for much of the season and, while not forced to medically retire, made the very reasonable decision to just move on with his life.
The Super Official 18 Stripes Class Grades
As a reminder, here’s our standard grading scale for this exercise:
95-100: Truly elite prospect with All-American potential
90-94: Multi-year starter with All-conference level potential
85-89: Eventual starter with chance to play as underclassman
80-84: Raw prospect with decent potential but a couple years away from impact
75-79: Likely a backup
70-74: Reach by the coaching staff
Staff | Offense Grade | Defense Grade | Overall Grade |
---|---|---|---|
Brendan | 90.3 | 85.8 | 88.1 |
Eric | 90.1 | 83.7 | 86.9 |
Jaden | 90.3 | 85.7 | 88.0 |
Tyler | 90.0 | 85.6 | 87.8 |
Overall | 90.2 | 85.2 | 87.7 |
Just going to copy and paste a comment from last year (that I copied and pasted last year from the previous year) on these overall grades:
Also, I’ll note that Eric was the low man, as he is pretty much every year. Yet further evidence that the people out there (ahem) who think he’s a sunshine-pumper probably never actually bother to read his stuff. Which isn’t that surprising, really.
Offense Signees
247C Score | 18S Grade | Player | City/State | Ht/Wt | Pos | Stars | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
.9845 | 96 | Chris Tyree | Chester, VA | 5-10/180 | RB | * | * | * | * | * |
.9834 | 96 | Jordan Johnson | St. Louis, MO | 6-2/180 | WR | * | * | * | * | * |
.9772 | 96 | Michael Mayer | Alexandria, KY | 6-5/240 | TE | * | * | * | * | * |
.9684 | 95 | Tosh Baker | Phoenix, AZ | 6-8/275 | OT | * | * | * | * | * |
.9390 | 87 | Michael Carmody | Mars, PA | 6-6/285 | OT | * | * | * | * | * |
.9226 | 81 | Drew Pyne | New Canaan, CT | 6-0/194 | QB | * | * | * | * | * |
.9122 | 86 | Kevin Bauman | Red Bank, NJ | 6-5/238 | TE | * | * | * | * | * |
.8810 | 91 | Xavier Watts | Omaha, NE | 6-1/191 | WR | * | * | * | * | * |
.8593 | 85 | Jay Brunelle | Shrewsbury, MA | 6-1/200 | WR | * | * | * | * | * |
Defense Signees
247C Score | 18S Grade | Player | City/State | Ht/Wt | Pos | Stars | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
.9712 | 86 | Isaiah Pryor | Lawrenceville, GA | 6-2/200 | S | * | * | * | * | * |
.9477 | 94 | Jordan Botelho | Honolulu, HI | 6-3/230 | WDE | * | * | * | * | * |
.9299 | 87 | Rylie Mills | Lake Forest, IL | 6-5/275 | SDE | * | * | * | * | * |
.8871 | 86 | Aidan Keanaaina | Denver, CO | 6-3/292 | DT | * | * | * | * | * |
.8776 | 84 | Caleb Offord | Southaven, MS | 6-1/180 | CB | * | * | * | * | * |
.8734 | 84 | Landen Bartleson | Danville, KY | 6-1/182 | CB | * | * | * | * | * |
.8706 | 83 | Ramon Henderson | Bakersfield, CA | 6-2/185 | S | * | * | * | * | * |
.8647 | 83 | Clarence Lewis | Middletown, NJ | 6-0/185 | S | * | * | * | * | * |
.8412 | 80 | Alexander Ehrensberger | Dusseldorf, Germany | 6-7/238 | SDE | * | * | * | * | * |
Specialist Signees
247C Score | 18S Grade | Player | City/State | Ht/Wt | Pos | Stars | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
.7997 | 88 | Alex Peitsch | Washington, DC | 6-2/220 | LS | * | * | * | * | * |
Grading Out
Addressing Needs: B-
When a class is necessarily small, it gets a little harder to decide how well it addressed needs – you can’t just assume we should’ve gotten one extra at position X, because that means we would’ve had to give up someone else at position Y. Still, this class could’ve used at least one elite cornerback who could possibly contribute in 2020 and ideally one more offensive lineman – something the staff apparently believes as well, as they were quietly chasing USC signee Jonah Monheim right until he put pen to paper. Overall though, for a class with just 18 kids, it touched a lot of key points.
Home Run Factor: A-
Chris Tyree and Jordan Johnson give the class includes as many 247 Composite five-stars as the previous six classes combined.* Those two plus Michael Mayer give it three top 50 players. Tosh Baker is a fourth top 100 player. And Jordan Botelho and Michael Carmody add on to that group to make six top 150 players. More than just a raw count of talent, it’s also a huuuuuge deal that the two five stars are ball carriers – Notre Dame tends to do fine pulling five-star quarterbacks and linemen from time to time, but other positions have been a challenge. Tyree is a sub-4.4 running back that Alabama and Oklahoma wanted badly. Jordon Johnson is an all-around elite receiver whose offer list is a who’s-who of blue blood programs.
The recruiting gold standard of the Kelly era is the 2013 class that ranked 5th nationally; it included two five stars (Jaylon Smith and Max Redfield, mileage may vary), three top 50 players (add Greg Bryant, RIP), four top 100 players (tack on Hunter Bivin), and seven top 150 players (Tarean Folston, Isaac Rochell, and Steve Elmer round out the group). It also had 23 non-specialist signees, as compared to 17 in this class. So with six fewer recruits, the top-end talent in this class is roughly equivalent to that of the gold standard class. The back end of the 2013 class had marginally better rankings than the back end of this class, but still, it’s a good group.
* Which is not a great statement about the previous six classes, but that’s for another time…
Immediate Impact: B
Tyree, Johnson, Mayer, and Botelho are all going to contribute at some level in 2020. How much, I don’t know, but they’ll play. Tyree in particular will give the offensive backfield something it painfully obviously lacked this year, so I expect him to have a meaningful impact. One or two of the defensive backs might find their way onto the field by default, but I’m not sure that bolsters the “immediate impact” grade. Overall, the team is thankfully in a position where there will be limited opportunities for youngsters to step right in, as it was this season.
Class Comments
This was always going to be a small class, so the intrigue was in how the staff would mix and match pieces to build it; perhaps the most remarkable thing is that it was more or less wrapped up before fall camp even started. Ramon Henderson committed and signed yesterday, so of course he’s the latest commit. The last one before him? Xavier Watts, way back in early July. The staff kept in touch with a few committed players like Jalen McMillan and the aforementioned Jonah Monheim, kicked the tires on decommits like Dontae Manning and Ryan Watts, and kept working Henderson. But for the most part, the class was done in July and the staff was able to put a lot of focus on the 2021 class – where the lowest-ranked of our six commits is #104 overall Lorenzo Styles. So I’d say that worked out pretty well.
The other notable thing we discussed offline yesterday was what the early signing period has done to the national picture. Notre Dame offered 160 prospects in the 2020 class; as of late yesterday, only 13 of those players remain uncommitted. Only two of the 28 Composite five-stars and six of the top 100 remain uncommitted. There will be no major moves between now and the traditional signing day in February. As someone noted, they should just call that one the “late” signing day now. Is it better for the fans to move the excitement of signing day from otherwise barren February to mid-December, right in the middle of bowl season? Probably not. Is it better for kids? Yeah, I think so – they get to know upfront how interested their suitors really are. Is it better for Notre Dame? Abso-freaking-lutely. The period from the end of the season to the first Wednesday in February was always a fraught one for the Irish, as the glow of season visits would fade and, perhaps, someone like Stanford would swoop in with a BS “golden ticket” in January. That’s a thing of the past for Notre Dame, and woohoo to that.
Prop Bets
Because there’s nothing we can’t connect to gambling, we’ll leave you with the staff’s prop bets on a few key questions about this class.
Who will see the field the soonest?
- Brendan: Chris Tyree
- Eric: Chris Tyree
- Jaden: Chris Tyree
- Tyler: Chris Tyree
Well then.
Who has the highest upside?
- Brendan: Tosh Baker/Chris Tyree
- Eric: Michael Mayer
- Jaden: Tosh Baker
- Tyler: Tosh Baker
Who’s your favorite offensive player?
- Brendan: Chris Tyree
- Eric: Jordan Johnson
- Jaden: Michael Mayer
- Tyler: Michael Mayer
Chris Tyree:Brendan::KyleHamilton:UHND’s Greg Flammang
Who’s your favorite defensive player?
- Brendan: Jordan Botelho
- Eric: Landen Bartleson
- Jaden: Jordan Botelho
- Tyler: Jordan Botelho
Why such a low grade for Drew Pyne, giving him an 81 while the 247 composite has him up at 0.9226?
Pyne has one of the weakest arms of any blue chip quarterback in recent memory. In a long-throw competition (I think at the Elite 11), his long throw was something like 10-12 yards shorter than almost everyone else.
He is fairly accurate, however, which is what the coaches were reportedly looking for (probably as a result of Wimbush/Jurkovec).
He is very accurate and has excellent touch on his passes. He is very good at putting the right amount of air under the football. He certainly needs some more strength and conditioning but, he is athletic and skilled. He does not possess a cannon but is far from weak armed. This kid is not coming to ND with the intention of being a career backup.
If he ever opens the season #1 on the depth chart, something will have gone wrong, though (Book 2020, Jurko 2021-2022, Buchner 2023). Not to say things don’t change; but somebody won’t have developed or somebody will have gotten hurt. The arm strength puts a real ceiling on his potential production.
Or you guys are over stating his weak arm. I’m not stating he’s a favorite (though I think Jurkovec is a potential bust) but, he’s a good prospect. He’s certainly a better prospect than we thought Book was when he committed. I like how he throws the deep ball better than Book. Granted Buchner looks to be a possible 5 star. I don’t think anyone should sleep on Clarke either. He could be #2 by the fall. I guess I’m saying it’s good to have options.
For what its worth, Book received an average grade of 86 from us back in 2016. Speaking just for myself I thought he was a significantly better quarterback prospect than Pyne.
Agreed. Pyne is much smaller than Book – I’m pretty skeptical of both parts of Pyne’s listed 6-0/194, while Book was listed as a recruit at a questionable 6-1 but legit 200. He also posted better numbers against better competition; not the top league in California, certainly, but better than Pyne’s comp in Connecticut by a pretty large margin.
I like Pyne as a prospect. He has plus accuracy and mobility, and he seems like a good leader. He also has had problems with consistency, and while arm strength isn’t everything, for him it’s definitely a potential limiting factor. Remember too that our grading system is based on expected contribution levels – “decent potential but a couple of years away from an impact” seems like a reasonable projection for Pyne.
I just watched some HS highlights of both and don’t see much difference. They’re the same size(Max Preps has them identical), appear to have the same arm strength and close to the same athleticism. Book(70%) has better numbers his senior year but also threw 100 more passes.(6 more TD’s, 1000 more yds) Pyne(63%)seems to throw deeper balls better.
Book did not come in as the anointed savior and certainly Pyne isn’t either. I will say if Pyne starts as many games as Book will at ND, I would be as surprised as anyone.
Then MaxPreps is pretty far off on Pyne’s size – 247 lists him at 6-0/184 and ND lists him at 6-0/181. Pyne is visibly thinner than Book, who 247 listed at 6-1/200 back then, was. It doesn’t mean he’s a bad dude, but his slight build is a consistent drag on his evaluations.
Here are the pros from 247’s scouting report:
“Has some dual threat ability. Runs 4.7 in 40. Productive in high school with 6:1 TD/INT ratio. Quick release. Superb touch on intermediate passes. Drops balls between linebackers and defensive backs. High understanding of offensive concepts. Pocket presence is impressive. Feels pressure and moves in pocket. Can extend plays.”
And the cons:
“Lacks size of prototypical pocket passer. Arm strength needs work. Accuracy is inconsistent on deep balls. Uses a lot of body power to make throws down field and on deep outs.”
Which is what we’re saying. In their respective senior years, Book had a higher completion percentage (70% vs 64%), higher yards per attempt (8.8 vs 8.4), more TDs (30 vs 24), and fewer INTs (5 vs 7, despite the extra attempts), and *three times* as many rushing yards (779 at 6.0 ypc vs 259 yards at 4.5 ypc), and he did all that against better competition than Pyne faces. There’s no way their senior seasons are comparable.
I kinda hate doing this, because I like Pyne and I’m happy he’s in the class. But I don’t buy that he’s just as good a prospect as Book was. That doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.
Pyne’s a 4star, 0.92 composite #7 pro style, Book was a 3star 0.86 composite #20 pro style. All of a sudden Books arm strength is a plus but, alas he seems to be shrinking. ND has Book at 6’0″ now. So, no, he’s isn’t taller and 10 lbs. heavier is nothing. I bet that scouting report is near identical to what Book’s was. Let’s not pretend that people were doing cart wheels about Ian Book 4 years ago.
Completely agree that it’s a fantastic thing that we got him. If he starts for ND, I have no doubt that he has the talent to be a good starting QB, and for most schools, he would be contending to start at QB from the day he steps on campus. You’re absolutely right that his accuracy seems to be that good. But I don’t see him as a guy with a national championship contending arm. I would like us to find a QB who can lead a national championship contending offense. I won’t be mad if he ever ends up starting, just disappointed that Jurko/Buchner didn’t ever make the leap.
Neither Kizer nor Book were seen as anything but “career backups” at certain points in their early assessments.
Right, and then things went horribly wrong and they were forced into action. It’s awesome that Kelly has consistently had high-quality backups ready to step in if things go wrong. I just hope that at some point, one of these elite recruits actually pans out, because these very good backups have a limit to how far they can take you. If you want to compete for National Championships, it’s almost essential that you have an elite QB recruit starting for you.
Would anyone really say Kizer did not pan out?
“If he ever opens the season #1 on the depth chart, something will have gone wrong, though (Book 2020, Jurko 2021-2022, Buchner 2023).”
Agreed. Plus Tom Loy says that Buchner is looking into arrangements to prepare for early enrolling (so he would be arriving at ND in like 12 months from now).
So, really 2021 could be a Jurkovec vs. Buchner battle for starter. Pyne and Clark seem lost in the shuffle if Buchner is as good as he’s touted to be, but I guess we’ll wait and see…Like others have said it can all change very quickly with quarterbacks and it goes in very different directions than the expectations a lot of times.
I think Clark looked fairly impressive in the (very limited) action we saw from him, kind of like Book did in his first spring game. I would not be surprised at all if Clark is the #2 next year and Jurk transfers immediately after the season (he has no reason to transfer before finishing next year and graduating, as he would not gain additional eligibility).
“If he ever opens the season #1 on the depth chart, something will have gone wrong, though (Book 2020, Jurko 2021-2022, Buchner 2023). ” MikeyB, it’s normal for things to go wrong so to speak. Many, if not most of the top prospects don’t quite work out which is why we need to bring in a guy every year because some won’t make it and that’s expected.
O’Malley at II had a good piece today, on the last 2 decades of ND QB recruits.(free) It’s a good read. I think you would be very surprised how few of the recruited QB’s played out their career at ND while remaining a QB.
I’m not sure what website that is, but it sounds like I wouldn’t be surprised but that the article is precisely making the same point I’m making. I think if we hit on one out of every 3ish “sure things”/highly rated guys that’s normal and fine.
Irish Illustrated…Per O’Malley… 24 recruits, 5 still there, 3 of the other 19 exhausted their eligibility playing QB at ND.
You can rest assured that1-2 of the current guys will transfer.
Exactly. That was basically my point that whether they transfer or just aren’t very good, it’s a normal part of the process.
This isn’t the NFL. I don’t understand why anyone thinks that having a cannon for an arm is a requirement at the college level. Accuracy and the ability to read defenses and respond to pressure are considerably more important. Plenty of undersized quarterbacks with underwhelming arms have had great college careers.
I agree. The weapons at the QB’s disposal matter too. Ian Book would have been a better QB with a better stable of RB’s this year. Another top notch WR wouldn’t have hurt either. Is Book what would be considered a “NC level QB”? Maybe not but, either is some of the personnel around him. A bigger arm would help but, so would Travis Etienne.
“Who will see the field the soonest?”
Peitsch. I win, you all lose.
Not if Tyree is the kick returner and you know we’re taking the ball first.
Touche
And yet, Peitsch didn’t even make .80 by the 18S staff, let alone where he is essentially guaranteed to land: “85-89: Eventual starter with chance to play as underclassman”
We all gave him an 88 grade, I think. After deep, deep film review.
Ah. I misread and thought the 247 grade was yours. I will accept my public shaming for not knowing how to read.
Eh, you fit in just fine with us. And on pretty much any other ND board in existence. And actually any other sports board. Well, any message board, period, regardless of topic. In fact you’re a fine human. So there.
Best thing that would have been had we stolen Jonah Monheim from USC: their highest signing would have been a 3 star!
Even Monheim is only #350 in the composite. They are still listed as WARM on 247 for a few highly rated guys, but only favored for 1 top 100 WR. Retaining Helton was maybe the best early Christmas present I got this year.
Wow really?! I thought USC just recruited itself. Helton is really that bad?
Part of the blame has to go to the USC administration for leaving him flapping in the wind all fall. Notice I said “part of the blame”.
Looking at their past classes, it has been largely the same except they have a few top like 25-50 guys too. This time they didn’t get any of those top guys. To be fair, they still may end up with one of those type of guys before all is said and done.
No this is entirely different. 3 years ago SC had the 4th best recruiting class, and they were 4th again two years ago. Last year it dropped to 20th, but they flipped 4 players to transfer back to them after signing day (including a 4* and a 5*), which if counted as part of the class would have put them close to 10th, with 9 players at 4*+.
This year they currently sit at 79th, only have one 4* commit and via 247 crystal ball are only likely to get one more, which would move them no higher than 55th. But this is what happens when the national media theorizes all season long that there’s going to be a coaching change, players wait to see who it’ll be, and then it doesn’t change, but all indications are that it will next year. So players would have to commit to an unknown future coach. Even for USC, that makes recruiting hard.
Thanks for the analysis!
I will be super happy if Landon Bartleson is our best defensive player in this class (or super super sad).
Tosh Baker: 6-8 / 275 per 247
Mike McGlinchey: 6-8 / 275 per 247
just sayin (although Baker doesn’t have Heistand coaching him).
A couple notes on omissions: Under signees by positions, I don’t think you counted Aidan Keanaaina under DT. And in the Offensive Signees with player rating section, you appear to have left out Michael Carmody.
I think, as a function of numbers if nothing else, we’re going to get one good CB out of this class. The realistic hope is two, and (to get very cynical for a second) that the other two transfer after one (or max two) seasons for optimal roster-management purposes.
That can be cynical and also appropriately descriptive of the staff’s strategy since 2017. Pre-reboot, Kelly was too content to let dead weight hang around. He has managed the roster much more aggressively since then, either in booting guys who were coasting or making it abundantly clear to others that they’ll need to transfer if they want playing time. Nobody gets straight-up cut – if the effort is there the kid can stay – but the staff, let’s say, encourages an informed decision on one’s football future.
They’re definitely throwing numbers at the problem, which is fine. Keep in mind too that Henderson and Watts could each know that they could end up at either WR or CB – an either/or, I believe, they wouldn’t put both on the same side. I think Watts could be excellent no matter where you put him. Henderson I think could be a good safety but maybe a better receiver. Since both will enroll early, the staff should have plenty of opportunity to decide who ends up where before next season.
Great update and just terrific info across the board. I used to be so obsessed with recruiting. I still am more into it than I should be, but have dialed back from reading 3 pay sites to just 18S and sometimes some generic stuff. I don’t miss spending so much time reading about HS boys, but even more so don’t feel like I’m missing out on much.
Gah – fixed the Carmody omission. That’s really weird, I distinctly remember typing “Mars, PA” and ruminating on the candy company. I must not have saved that draft before publishing or something. Anyway…
I did count Keanaaina under DT. The “1/2” at SDE and DT means “1 or 2,” not “half of Mills in each” – Eherensberger is definitely a SDE, Keanaaina is definitely a DT, Mills could be either.
Aha! Totally explains the DT counting. Thanks.