The game last year between Navy and Notre Dame featured 120 snaps. One hundred and twenty snaps total for a college football game. The Irish infamously settled for a field goal in the 4th quarter with 7:28 left in the game while trailing by one believing they’d get the ball back again.
They never got the ball back again.
Navy
2016 Record: 9-5
2016 S&P Rank: 52
Offense Returning Production Rank: 122
Defense Returning Production Rank: 38
Coach Ken Forever
A couple of years ago I surmised that Navy’s move from independent status to the American Athletic Conference would ultimately weaken their schedule and make their life easier. In today’s game that really wouldn’t seem to make sense for most people, especially knowing how good of a G5 conferece the AAC has been since 2015.
Still, the big difference would be the lack of Power 5 teams on the schedule. Three years ago, Navy played Ohio State, Rutgers, and Notre Dame in a single season and over the past two seasons it’s only been Notre Dame–all other P5 programs have dropped off.
Thus, with an impressive 14-2 record in the AAC (and his spurning the BYU job last off-season) things are lining up for Ken Niumatalolo to stay at Navy for a very long time.
Reconstructing the Offense
Notre Dame’s defense is going to see the good and bad side of returning offensive production this fall. Stanford, Georgia, Miami (OH), NC State, and Wake Forest are all in the top 40 while North Carolina, Navy, Michigan State, and Miami are all 114th or worse.
Navy is the ultimate system offense so perhaps their loss of production isn’t as meaningful as others. In fact, that’s definitely the truth.
That being said, both Tago Smith (tore ACL in the first game) and Will Worth are gone at quarterback. Also, three out of the top 5 slotbacks are gone, too. Rising junior Zach Abey played in the last 3 games in 2016 (Worth went down with a foot injury) and has the inside track to start in 2017. Incidentally, Abey struggled and Navy finished the season with 3 straight losses.
Channeling 2015
The Navy defense has been consistent. Consistently poor with S&P+ rankings of 100th (2016), 94th (2014), and 85th (2013). The outlier was 2015 which saw the 51st S&P+ ranked defense and it’s no surprise that this season was Navy’s best in several decades.
As you may know, safety Alohi Gilman (76 tackles, 5 TFL, 5 PBU’s) has transferred to Notre Dame and with the strong emphasis on returning secondary production Navy’s 38th ranking from earlier in the spring would drop significantly.
Even with the loss of Gilman the Middies do have 8 out of their top 13 tacklers returning. Most of their losses are in the front seven which could pose some challenges, though. Assuming their offense takes a small step back, or God forbid something worse, Navy is going to need a little something better from their defense if they want to continue their dominance in the AAC.
Summer Spread: Irish Favored by 5.5 Points
The experts in the desert have Navy around 7 wins for this upcoming season which is a tick worse than the Irish. In a couple more seasons Notre Dame will be traveling to San Diego for this game but for 2017 it’ll be home field advantage in South Bend.
Buy or Sell: 5.5 Conference Wins for Navy
This one is tricky because you look at the American and three coaches bolting for Power 5 schools leaves a huge void throughout the league. It would seem Temple, USF, and Houston are all going to take a step back and who has been more consistent than Navy to step up into that void?
I’ll buy at least 6 wins, which means just 2 losses in league play. The schedule is pretty tough–Cincinnati, at Tulsa, Air Force, at Memphis, UCF is a mean 5-game stretch after 2 paddy cakes early on–and I’m wondering if they will even escape October with only 1 loss.
Know a Player: DE Jarvis Polu
Polu is the definitive modern-day Navy football player. Coming out of Las Vegas he spent a year in Navy’s prep school in Rhode Island and has grown into a NFL-sized linemen (6-3, 292) with the ability to play both as a jumbo end or nose guard. He made 53 tackles last year, including 3 sacks.
Outfitter: Under Armour
The first month of 2014 was a big one for Under Armour as they signed 10-year deals with both Navy and Notre Dame. Prior to signing this deal Nike was making some really strong alternate uniforms for Navy. However, Under Armour has continued designing strong alternates and arguably upgraded the Middies traditional home and away sets, as well.
Most Important Game: vs. Army
You could make the case as I did above that Navy’s program is on such solid foundation that they’re as good of a bet as anyone to win the American–and thus be in line for a NY6 bowl game. The more tempered expectation probably sees the Middies winning somewhere between 7 and 9 games, being one of the top American conference teams, but not quite a league winner.
Therefore, revenge against Army is paramount. The Black Knight beat them for the first time since 2001 last year snapping a 15-game losing streak.
I was at that game in Jax. They lost, but it didn’t feel like they were going to lose to me. I was almost surprised when the clock ran out and ND lost. I had a great time, it would have been better with a win though.
If I recall correctly, this was the general reaction in the group chat when Kelly kicked that field goal –
How much do you think all of the talk of “chasing points too early in the game” factored into that decision?
Ha, nice.
I’ve heard BVG is selling his talents as a consultant to prepare teams for the triple option. Maybe he’s available.
Available to stay as far away as possible from us during this game.
This is way OT, but since we can’t create fanposts on here, this is the only route I can go. I thought it would interest everyone, and especially MoTS if he’s still around these parts, that the GODBACKER meme continues to live on. Over on the Cowboys SBN site, we had this post up today that referenced the original GODBACKER post penned by the Southern Gentleman:
https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/6/27/15881036/dallas-cowboys-byron-jones-jaylon-smith-is-100-healthy-nfl-offseson-training-camp-knee-injury
Anyway, just thought y’all would enjoy hearing that Jaylon is doing so well and looks to be making a full recovery for this season. I’m still banging the GODBACKER drum for us over on the Dallas side so hopefully that thing lives on.
That is cool to see! Love the optimism over there…very Irish!
The 10-1 defense…LOL!