This off-season absolutely flew by for me personally, who is ready to talk some real football? Notre Dame will begin fall camp this weekend as the program prepares for Brian Kelly’s 12th season with the Irish moving the coch past Frank Leahy, Ara Parseghian, and Lou Holtz for the 2nd most career campaigns in school history.
Let’s break down the important storylines for the offense ahead of these set of practices.
Coordinator: Tommy Rees, 2nd Season
As the 6th offensive coordinator of the Brian Kelly era, Tommy Rees enters his 2nd season in his current position while spending 10 out of the last 12 years at Notre Dame as either a player or coach. This is quite a run in South Bend!
The pressure seems pretty low for Rees heading into 2021 following a promising 2020 debut as a coordinator. However, the ending to last fall (24 points, 4.6 yards per play in the ACC Championship and Rose Bowl) brought a heaping side of humble pie that should have the offense eager to get off on a strong foot in the season opener.
Still just 29, Rees will have his hands full rebuilding his side of the ball that lost 6 players to the NFL Draft.
Scheme: 12 Personnel Heavy, Zone-Blocking, Multiple Spread
In his first year calling plays, Rees showed that he likes to run the ball and rely on tight ends. He built off a really good relationship with quarterback Ian Book and was able to get something out of a very meager receiver position taking things to the playoffs.
There’s been plenty of discussion that things need to change, though. There’s talk about the offense needing to open up more, deliver on more downfield passing, and find a quarterback able to hang tough in the pocket to make difficult throws. With a new quarterback–and surely less dependency on the running ability at this position–it’ll take a lot of adjusting and tweaking to an updated scheme.
Returning Starters:Â 3-10*
How do you define a returning starter? If it’s strictly by the book (players coming back who started the opener in 2020) the Irish only have 3 players: Offensive lineman Jarrett Patterson, running back Kyren Williams, and wide receiver Avery Davis.
If you use the more liberal version 7 more players could be included: receiver Braden Lenzy, center Zeke Correll, tackle Josh Lugg, tight end Michael Mayer, and receiver Kevin Austin have all started multiple games for the Irish while quarterback Jack Coan was a starter at Wisconsin and offensive guard Cain Madden was a multi-year starter at Marshall.
Camp Questions
How good is Jack Coan?
This should be a great fall camp for everyone because the media will be present at enough practices to get a long look at Jack Coan and the other 2 quarterbacks, as well. I’m fascinated to see Coan up close and personal with the season upon us and the media-less spring now a distant past.
We’re all assuming he’ll be a step down–perhaps several steps down–as a backyard playmaker compared to Ian Book. Coan’s lack of agility and running in comparison to his predecessor could be a big change and major adjustment for the offense as a whole. Will this be worrisome straight out of the gate in camp?
Media Practice Viewings
Saturday, August 7th – 30 Minutes
Thursday, August 12th – Full
Tuesday, August 17th – 30 Minutes
Thursday, August 19th – Full
Tuesday, August 24th – 30 Minutes
Wednesday, August 25th – 30 Minutes
Will Coan be able to make up for this in other ways? The Irish are banking on a stronger arm, bigger frame, and improved accuracy leading to a smoother passing game. Can they add explosiveness and take pressure of what should be a heavily targeted running game and Kyren Williams? And while everyone says they’d trade some turnovers for bigger plays how different will this offense look if the interceptions tick upward (Notre Dame only turned it over through the air 9 times over the last 2 seasons!) coming off an era with ridiculously great ball protection?
Will this continue to be a heavy personnel team?
Offensive linemen and tight ends, this is what Notre Dame does! Following the spring the depth at tight end looks much stronger and of course Michael Mayer is about to go off in his second year on campus. Offensive line could be a little trickier but there’s no shortage of talent–and as discussed above–adding Cain Madden solidifies a unit that certainly should be far from a weakness.
Analysts everywhere also rank the Irish with among the best backfields in the country. Add in a more pro-style type of quarterback and all signs point to this being an offense much more in the mold of Wisconsin, ironically where Coan came from through the transfer portal.
Yet, we know it won’t be that pro-style at all. How Tommy Rees goes about working with this clay on offense should be fascinating.
What do we have at receiver?
You can boil down most of Notre Dame’s questions on offense heading into 2021 on whether or not the receivers are going to be more average-types among the Power 5 level or if we’re going to see a breakthrough finally.
The spring brought us positive vibes from Avery Davis, Braden Lenzy, and Lawrence Keys although doubts continue to linger whether any of these players are good enough to develop into a top receiver. Of course, the team hopes to find Kevin Austin in complete health as the X-factor to-be and possibly an offensive re-defining playmaker. If not, a long hard look at Xavier Watts and the incoming freshmen may be needed.
New Faces to Watch
Running Back Audric Estime
The former Michigan State commit flipped to Notre Dame back on December 18th and was a super late addition to the class in the Early Signing Day era we live in now. He walks into a situation where he’ll be battling for 4th string reps with classmate Logan Diggs so not the most exciting situation ever. However, this guy is built.
215 pounds of scary.Â
Somehow listed only at 6’1″ and 215 pounds I’m excited to see Estime’s athleticism and burst for someone his size. As a late pick up last year he had surprising speed based on my expectations and his size. He’s the only back right now with no doubt NFL size so it could be an advantage as a freshman.
Offensive Guard Cain Madden
The Marshall transfer should step into the starting lineup for the Irish after blowing up over the last 2 seasons in the Conference USA leading to all-league honors after 2019 and All-American honors after 2020. He’s an intriguing player due to his size and now taking a step up in competition at Notre Dame.
Notre Dame officially lists Madden at 6’2″ 1/2 and 306 pounds. After a recent photo of the entire line together it’s possible Madden’s height is a touch inflated. Either way, he’s much shorter than a typical Notre Dame lineman and we’ll see how well he copes with the physicality of this August camp.
Wide Receiver Deon Colzie
Colzie is a lot like Estime for me. I gave an edge to Logan Diggs in our recruiting grades over Estime and did the same for Lorenzo Styles over Colzie but find myself being more and more intrigued by the size for this incoming receiver. Listed at 6’3″ and 200 pounds by Notre Dame it doesn’t quite match the 6’4″ height from 247 or Rivals. Still, this is a big body who can find a role very soon and possibly leapfrogs a few younger receivers who have already been on campus.
Key Positional Battles
Assuming full health I think we have 9 known starters:
QB Jack Coan
RB Kyren Williams
OL Jarrett Patterson
OL Cain Madden
OL Josh Lugg
OL Blake Fisher
WR Kevin Austin
WR Avery Davis
TE Michael Mayer
You could quibble with Lugg (I mentioned in the spring I think it’s possible he loses his job at some point in 2021 but damn he looks phenomenal in the above linked picture) but I believe he’ll be a staple on the line during camp. This more or less leaves us with 2 starters with questions for August:
Zeke Correll – It doesn’t seem to be written in stone that he’ll be the center and Kelly has mentioned in the past they don’t like him at guard. I’m not sure if there’s inside information out there but Jarrett Patterson was part of the pre-season watch for the Rimington Award given to the nation’s best center. There also continue to be rumblings that Rocco Spindler could play left guard, which would likely mean Patterson goes back to center and Correll to the bench.
Braden Lenzy – Spoiler alert I included Lenzy in my personal top 25 players for the 2021 season although I think he’s much more at risk of not becoming a starter this fall. That is, if we see other players step up first. Lenzy’s speed is so enticing but he’ll have to prove he can stay healthy and be more reliable than just a gadget-type of player.
Freshmen Numbers
#11 QB Ron Powlus, Jr.
#12 QB Tyler Buchner
#16 WR Deon Colzie
#21 WR Lorenzo Styles
#22 RB Logan Diggs
#24 RB Audric Estime
#50 OL Rocco Spindler
#54 OL Blake Fisher
#72 OL Caleb Johnson
#76 OL Joe Alt
#78 OL Pat Coogan
#80 TE Cane Berrong
#83 WR Jayden Thomas
#88 TE Mitchell Evans
#91 PK Josh Bryan
Of the ones mentioned, it seems like Austin is the only WR with the potential to be a clear #1 guy. Davis is a decent slot receiver, Lenzy should be in a shared role to keep him healthy, and Keys is a talented utility guy who can shift around the receiver positions.
Perhaps Styles or Watts will have a TJ Jones early career breakout?
As for the system, I was under the impression that Rees ran the tight end friendly system with a lot of running out of necessity — great OL, great RBs, great TEs, but meh receivers. And to top it off, a QB who did not like to take chances with deep throws (but who was a phenomenal scrambler / improviser).
I would not be surprised if the offense is significantly different this year with a more opened-up passing game.
Yeah, especially since at the beginning of last year even the RB wasn’t known to be great ahead of time (Williams untested, Tyree a freshman). They proved to be a strength but that wasn’t known.
Given the beast OL, plus Mayer/Tremble, 12 personnel made since, would have been foolish not to play to the group’s overwhelming strength.
This year it is fascinating to see what Rees’ plan and identity is. The OL should be OK, but not the force it was before. The WR’s are the huge question mark, and for me the QB who was only average and hasn’t played in a while is too.
I’m excited to see just how much they can utilize Williams and Tyree on the field at the same time. That seems a bit awkward to have two RB on the field at the same time, but opens up some possibilities. Would love to see Tyree line up in the slot, motion for jet sweeps or into the backfield, or have both lineup in the backfield and Kyren on the pre-snap move to the slot for passing looks. Hopefully they get creative with how to use the best pieces and don’t just trot out Davis/Keys for a ton of snaps and probably little production..
E, what’s the take on the uniform numbers? I think 50 was Spindler’s HS number but that looks kinda poor to me, as does Fisher’s 54. The old school in me wishes Fisher was like 77 and Spindler was in the 60’s.
Buchner as 12 will be fun, especially if he gets into the games under center like Book did early in 2018. Seeing the mobile 12 from the QB spot will be like good old times.
OL numbers are the least important to me, I do like Buchner in 12 though.
I’m curious to your thoughts Eric, what would be the barometer for a successful offensive season? Averaging 36 PPG or 38, scoring more than 24 in every game?
What needs to break right for the offense to get there? Healthy Austin plus 1-2 of lenzy, keys, styles, colzie step up (I’m taking Davis and Mayer as we know what they are)?
I’m not sure, I want to see how things start in camp. I’m probably less enthusiastic as some on the offense (no surprise I usually am) so my personal barometer is lower. My fear is this becomes a Dayne Crist-type offense where we’re throwing a lot because we’re afraid to get bogged down with the run game, but we’ll see!
Just pulled up 2010, under 60% completion percentage, under 7.0YPA. That offense was horrible to watch. I mean this line and backs should be much better than what crist had so I hope that doesn’t fully come to fruition
It’s going to be interesting. I could see this offense looking much like last years without the QB running threat. Meaning not much downfield passing. That’s due to my fears of the WR group more than Coan’s abilities. On the other hand if the WR group surprises a little, that would open things up. With the offense becoming more of a threat downfield, that opens things up for the rest of the offense. I think so much rides on the WR group surprising us some.
I have this nagging fear our offense the past couple years has been too reliant on Book picking up cheap first downs scrambling. I don’t have numbers (because I’m lazy) but it seems like Book kept a ton of drives going by zooming up the middle for 12 yards on 3rd & 8. We could really feel his absence this year, I think.
Book was best on the team at both run success rate and % of explosive runs last year, in large part due to his scrambling. So valid concern!
Well, crap. You guys are supposed to tell me I’m wrong and not to worry. What do I pay the subscription fee for anyway?
This is my hot(?) take:
I think the offense will perform better this season. I acknowledge the loss of the line and the new QB, but the latter is exactly why I feel so.
Disclaimer: Ian Book is a baller and I always felt like we had a punchers chance with him, love that’s dude in the blue and gold.
That being said, ian book became a “see it, throw it” guy; I felt like he had fewer and fewer anticipation throws each successive season. His ad hoc play extending abilities are top notch, but I felt there were many times that plays got extended because he missed the initial read, especially on throws over the middle. That creates the demand on receivers to constantly stay alive, and your route is probably not how you’re getting the ball, but rather scramble drill.
I began to equate ian book to Jonny Manziel, without the off field insanity.
I think coan will give early progression anticipation throws, and down the middle throws, things we’ve been lacking. I think taking so much burden off his lack of scrambling just by getting the ball out on the intended read will put it into the playmakers hands and let them play.
Who knows how camp will play out, but this is my hope of hopes; our QB will elevate the WR play by getting them the ball on time, which will create a better passing game, less reliant on magic, and more on methodology.
Nothing but love for ian though, he was a wizard when it came to that magic
I agree with most of what you said. Love Book and give him props for his time at ND, but yes I am hoping that Coan will take some of the steps you described
Hope you’re right. In theory, it makes sense. I’m a bit leery about Coan being the guy good enough to elevate an offense into being a big time productive one. He was only OK and hasn’t played in a while, which always makes me skeptical of where he will pick up after a long layoff, new team, system, coaching and all.
And Coan’s career Y/A at 7.5 is less than Book’s 7.8. Granted, Wisconsin isn’t exactly vertical explosiva offense, but…ND isn’t probably going to be either. Book’s passing stats (yards, yards/game, yards/attempt) really weren’t that far off from Kizer’s numbers. Even though Kizer has the lasting legacy of being the strong armed, downfield pocket passer type, though I guess the data might be skewed since Kizer was getting yo-yo’d in and out of games more than Book was.
To ACS’ point above, I fear the loss of Book’s legs and mobility will be the biggest noticeable change, and a negative one. It’ll be fascinating to watch play out, and hopefully my impression of Coan is just a little too underwhelming and he will perform well.
Roster updated Estime’s weight to 228 pounds.
Scary…..I think the term “trucked” will be used often in descriptions of his runs during his career.
Okay okay, just hear me out: we dial up some Holtz era plays, wishbone, estime is the bettis upback, William’s and tyree the pitch men, and buchner running the bone triple option a la Tony rice… get kelly a rad classic windbreaker, and let’s go off for 350 on the ground every week and turn defenses into cornmeal. Kyren is already halfway there sporting the chris zorich belly shirt, let get back to that 88-93 aesthetic a little more!
Gotta… love this!!