Hello friends, and welcome to the 4th edition of the modern Early Signing Day for college football. Technically, today ushers in an Early Signing Period which extends through Saturday, December 19th. It’s been a wild recruiting cycle thanks to Covid largely shutting down operations across the country but for Notre Dame the script has largely remained the same as the entire class is expected to sign on Wednesday with little drama or fanfare.

Well, there might be a little drama.

In the coming weeks we will be working on publishing our full breakdowns of the 2021 class but for today we are going to look at a large overview of recruiting both in South Bend and across the nation.

Notre Dame’s 2021 Class

Class Size: Gettin’ Beefy

That’s a lot of bodies! Yes, it is and it could grow today or even into the February signing period. The Irish have followed up a smaller 2020 class (18 players, 17 whom ended up signing) with a few more players than expected for this cycle. There is the anticipation that Notre Dame will be losing quite a few more scholarships than your average program, and thus, are ready to make way for a big 2021 haul.

As we wrote last month, there are still so many questions surrounding rosters and scholarship numbers with no one losing a year of eligibility but the Irish staff seem comfortable going big now and being okay in 2022 and beyond.

Flip SZN: It Worked Out

Notre Dame ended up flipping 5 recruits during this cycle, including: Will Schweitzer from Nebraska, Josh Bryan from Colorado, Philip Riley from USC, Caleb Johnson from Auburn, and Devin Aupiu from UCLA. Five of those (all except Schweitzer which happened in August) came last month.

Moreover, receiver Deion Colzie was kind of a flip as well. He left Notre Dame’s class in March of 2020 after an October 2019 commitment with Georgia his expected final destination. Instead, Colzie came back into the Irish class at the end of September.

Notre Dame also had to grind for Philip Riley who committed to the Irish in May, left the class in September, committed to USC a few days later, then re-joined Notre Dame’s class on November 16th.

The Losses: Nary a Scratch

Since Notre Dame recaptured Colzie and Riley the only other decommits from 2021 have been defensive end David Abiara (whose been dealing with some legal issues, was rumored to be looking around at other schools for months anyway and left the Irish class officially a few weeks ago) and offensive guard Greg Crippen who subsequently joined Michigan’s class.

Following up a 2020 cycle with no decommits it’s been one of the strengths of Notre Dame recruiting in recent years not to lose many members of their class. Here are the losses from 2018-19:

QB Cade McNamara, Michigan, 2019

Had the joy of being inserted into this disaster of a Michigan team, you hate to see it. He’s actually looked okay and will probably be in line to start for the Wolverines next year, if you consider that a good thing.

WR TJ Sheffield, Purdue, 2019

I believe Notre Dame wanted Sheffield at corner. He’s been a receiver at Purdue where he’s caught 2 passes so far in his career.

CB Kalon Gervin, Michigan State, 2018

Now starting at corner for the Spartans, he has 30 tackles so far in his career.

RB Markese Stepp, USC, 2018

Still a backup running back for the Trojans, although he could be in line to start next year. He’s rushed for 480 yards at USC.

WR Geordon Porter, Arizona State, 2018

I have no recollection of this person. He’s caught 11 passes for the Sun Devils.

Lea’s Leaving: We Stay Worried

Of course, it’s never easy to lose your star defensive coordinator to one of the worst Power 5 jobs in the country but doing so less than 48 hours before Signing Day doesn’t make one feel super excited. Will the departure of Clark Lea shake loose some of Notre Dame’s commits?

There’s been a tiny bit of smoke about linebacker Prince Kollie possibly leaving the class but it does seem unlikely. There’s probably a 0% chance he would follow Lea to Vanderbilt and the word on the street is that Lea will not burn any bridges and bring Irish commits with him to Nashville.

Kollie would be a massive loss so let’s hope it doesn’t happen. There are some heavy-hitters (Alabama, Georgia, Clemson) reportedly attempting a flip.

Additionally, this isn’t related to Clark Lea’s departure but there is more smoke surrounding running back Logan Diggs who was offered by LSU exactly 1 week ago and could be convinced to stay in-state in Louisiana if they truly want to take him.

Monday evening writer’s Slack chat worried about decommits. 

We’ve come to expect this Irish staff to close so well this time of year so it does feel like things will be okay. However, if we had to put a guess out there Kollie seems like a much bigger threat to leave with more options available to him and a stock that has been sky-rocketing this year.

Adding More Talent: 3 Possibilities

Notre Dame has been chasing running back Donovan Edwards (No. 44 overall player) out of the suburbs of Detroit for several months now. It always seemed like a long shot so don’t get your hopes up. He is planning on making his decision today.

The Irish did just offer northern New Jersey running back and current Michigan State commit Audric Estime (No. 245 overall player) this past Monday which seems to signal their belief in Edwards’ decision. I would think if Notre Dame really pushes hard he could flip but there are still some moving parts at running back to make it complicated.

Notre Dame is also pursuing corner Ceyair Wright (No. 77 overall player) from Los Angeles but we’re putting him in the long shot category for now. He goes to Loyola High School just 2 miles from the Los Angeles Coliseum and is planning on deciding in February with USC and Stanford heavily in the mix.

Early Signing: Are We Good?

No, I hate it. I’m not convinced it’s better for players although I realize that’s the biggest issue to argue about and there are good points from both sides. With how much Covid has disrupted this cycle (some Irish commits have never visited campus nor met Brian Kelly in person which is usually a bad sign for their future comfort especially if they live far away) the Early Signing Period has arrived awfully quickly.

I’m not sure things will change all that much by the time February comes around but the extra time to evaluate and consider more options would be best for everyone. The problem is that even though recruits can wait until February once the door was opened in December the pressure from peers and coaching staff alike was always going to be to sign sooner. Last year, 82% of FBS prospects signed in December will we see that number drop this week?

I’ve said this every year, too. Doing this now in the middle of December is always a bad time for us. Right now we have the ACC Championship and news of Clark Lea leaving within days of each other with Early NSD dropped in for good measure as almost an afterthought. Meanwhile, in February we’ll be staring at absolutely nothing going on with college football.

Most Underrated Prospect: Logan Diggs

Oddly enough, for me this award for 2021 would go to either Diggs or Kollie, both as we mentioned, being flight risks at the moment. I don’t think it can go to Kollie anymore as his national profile has increased (he is a finalist for the high school Butkus Award) and it wouldn’t be a shock if he ended up a Top 100 or even Top 75 recruit.

Diggs is way, way better than his 0.874 Composite ranking and closer to a top 5 talent in this class than he is as the 14th best. He should surprise a lot of people based off his current placement in the rankings.

Class Recap: Wait Until Next Year, Volume 7

This is another good class but one that yet again hasn’t taken the next step for the Notre Dame program. Last year, the reasoning was that the class was too small as the Irish were the only team among the Top 33 to have fewer than 20 recruits while the player average was actually tied for 9th with Florida.

This year, the class is larger and Notre Dame currently sits 8th nationally overall but the player average has dipped to 14th in the country and they are 1 of only 2 programs (Oregon being the other) who are in the top 13 without a single 5-star prospect.

No doubt, the pandemic will be the big talking point for this year’s lack of a leap as the can is kicked down the road once again about why we should expect 2022 to be The Big Year.

Strengths: The Offensive Ceiling

Last year was the cycle for big impact offensive skill players and while that’s TBD for the receivers right now it has been a homerun for running back Chris Tyree and tight end Michael Mayer. The 2021 class has an equally impressive chance of having a similar impact maybe not right away but over the long run.

Obviously, a lot of that hinges on the development of quarterback prospect Tyler Buchner who many people are zeroing in on for this cycles boom or bust player, perhaps the most intriguing such recruit in the entire country.

There’s a bunch of offensive linemen, a trio of very good receivers, and an underrated running back who could be joined by a second commit at his position. That’s a really good core that could take off like a rocket ship if Buchner is anywhere close to the real deal.

Weaknesses: Pass Rushing

I’m probably a little higher on Schweitzer than most but a little less so with Onye and Aupiu. Notre Dame has done a really good job at developing pass-rushers in recent years but this cycle looks particularly challenging, especially now that there will be a new defensive coordinator in town.

I personally don’t love most of the defensive backs but I do like their potential a lot more than most of the players up front in pass rushing roles.

# of Early Enrollees: 11

Remember the wild days when 4 or 5 recruits would be on campus in January? How quaint! The following players will be enrolling at Notre Dame in just a few short weeks:

QB Buchner, WR Styles, TE Berrong, OG Spindler, OT Fisher, OT Johnson, DE Schweitzer, DT Rubio, CB Barnes, CB Riley, CB Johnson, S Walters.

Our recruiting writers and I were having (and are still having!) a heck of time trying to figure out who will be the player with the most immediate impact in 2021. With as many as 4 starters possibly moving on from the offensive line I feel like we shouldn’t be shocked to see Blake Fisher win a job at some point next year. He’s so, so good.

Race for the No. 1 Ranking: Alabama vs. Ohio State (Surprise)

These two programs are way out ahead for the top spot in the country. To a lesser extent, Georgia, LSU, and Clemson are within striking distance but comfortably in the 3rd through 5th slots.

Alabama and Ohio State currently claim a combined 11 prospects who are Composite 5-stars. Georgia (3), Clemson (2), and Miami (2) are the only other schools with multiple 5-star prospects. Each of Oklahoma, Washington, Wisconsin, Texas, Michigan, Florida, LSU, Texas A&M, and North Carolina have a single 5-star in their class.

5-Stars Remaining: 7

There are 17 total recruits from the Composite Top 100 who have not committed yet. From that group we have 7 players who are 5-stars still to announce their intentions:

#1 Overall, DE Korey Foreman – Announcing on January 2nd with USC as the perceived leader.

#3 Overall, DE J.T. Tuimoloau – Announcing in February with Ohio State as the perceived leader.

#11 Overall, OT Tristan Leigh – Announcing on January 2nd with several teams still in the mix.

#16 Overall, LB Terrence Lewis – Recent decommit from Tennessee who is announcing on January 2nd. Auburn leads his Crystal Ball.

#18 Overall, DT Maason Smith – Announcing on Wednesday with LSU and Georgia the leaders.

#20 Overall, LB Xavian Sorey – Announcing on Wednesday with Georgia expected to sign him.

#26 Overall RB Camar Wheaton – Announcing on December 23rd between Oklahoma and Alabama.