Now is not the time for despair. I’ll be the first to admit, I woke up a little morose this morning after watching the Irish last night. It was the first time this year Mike Brey’s team couldn’t close the deal in an ACC game. As disappointing as it was to see the Irish fall to the Seminoles 83-80 Wednesday night, now is not the time for despair.
Notre Dame still sits atop the ACC standings and is well ahead of the pace most prognosticators set for the Irish. More importantly, the Irish went on the road against a top-ten team and competed at the highest level. As great as it would have been to fly home from Tallahassee 6-0, life is still great for Irish fans. Let’s use this post as an opportunity to find the bright side.
First, the Irish have a history of struggling against Leonard Hamilton’s better FSU teams. When they’ve been tournament-good, they’ve beaten the Irish handily. Wednesday night, the FSU defense pushed the Irish offense away from the rim. The Seminoles pressured the ball and caused the most ND turnovers this season. FSU attacked the glass relentlessly with length and athleticism among the best in the country.
If these story lines emerged before the game, you’d worry about a blowout. Duke got beat by 16 under similar circumstances. Wednesday was no blow-out. The Irish scratched and clawed their way through a tough road game against a top-ten opponent. They faced great odds and Ol’ Notre Dame nearly won overall.
Notre Dame put up the 4th most efficient offensive performance the Seminoles have seen this season. They managed that efficiency despite a season high in turnovers. The Irish bombed away to nearly 60% eFG shooting to make up for the impact of FSU’s pressure defense. Unfortunately, that great shooting couldn’t overcome the extra shot attempts created by FSU’s 34% offensive rebounding percentage.
T.J. Gibbs
If you’re taking away positives from the end of this brutal road trip, tops among them has to be the performance of T.J. Gibbs. The freshman kept the Irish in the game Wednesday with a fantastic performance. He scored 12 points on 4-5 shooting from the floor. He played a career-high 25 minutes. Most importantly, T.J. proved he can make plays in tough games. When the Irish needed a spark, Gibbs provided it Wednesday. The future is incredibly bright for this young man.
Winning Plays
Since ACC play opened, the narrative on the Irish flipped from a team that couldn’t close games after building big leads to “the greatest closers of all time.” Of course, the truth lies somewhere between the lines. Despite not walking away with the W, Notre Dame made some big plays down the stretch. We’re so used to writing these headlines about Steve Vasturia and Matt Farrell. Wednesday added another name to that mix: Rex Pflueger. Rex scored key three-point baskets late and made the steal that nearly led to tying the game in the final seconds. Stepping up in those kind of moments will be great for the sophomore’s confidence. Rex gives Brey another battle tested option in the clutch.
Bombs Away
One knock on Irish teams of the past was that they could light you up from deep at home, but struggled to consistently bring that with them on the road. Wednesday night, the Irish had six different players score from behind the arc. Of those, Pflueger was the lowest percentage at 1-3. Everyone else shot 75% or better from deep. That’s a hard thing to replicate, but doing it away from Purcell Pavilion is a good sign.
My only concern about shooting was our performance from the line. Normally, you wouldn’t complain about a 71% night from the line, but it felt like the Irish were regressing to the mean. There were a few key misses, including the front end of a 1-1, that really hurt the Irish late.
Managing 8v5
How cliche for the losing team to complain about officiating, no? Perhaps a neutral wouldn’t see it this way, but I’m a homer and I know it. Wednesday night provided ample video evidence of a good ol’ boy screw job. To his credit, Mike Brey stood up for his team in the first half and earned a technical foul. After that point, things somewhat evened out, but if there was a close one or arguable point on Wednesday, it was going against the Irish.
There were more than a few times this game turned on critical judgements that went against the Irish. One 5-0 Seminole run in the first half was fueled by this missed goaltending call.
Peak of the shot, then 5 frames LATER. pic.twitter.com/ZJrG3EGZWU
— JoeSchu (@JoeSchuND) January 19, 2017
Another late FSU run was aided by a missed over-and-back call where FSU clearly touched the deflected ball in the front court before picking it up in the back court. T.J. Gibbs went diving for a ball that was obviously off a FSU player, but it went to them.
Throughout the night, there was no way to interpret what contact around the rim the officials interpreted as a foul vs. not. As an Irish fan, the heuristic seemed simple: bump ND guys all you want. The worst occurrence of this was in the first half where Rex Plfueger had his legs taken out on a dunk attempt, and no call was made. Mike Giminski’s blind eye to the contact on the replay only served to rub salt in Irish fans’ wounds.
I’ve often joked that I’d consider giving up football independence to get a fairly officiated basketball game. Wednesday was stereotypical of ND’s ACC experience thus far. Irish fans can take heart that NCAAT games are officiated under a national standard and not within the league.
Final Sequence
This is less of a positive than a chance to provide some clarification. Last night, I was convinced that V.J. Beachem or Bonzie Colson could (and should) have kicked out the ball after Pflueger’s late steal. Replay showed Matt Farrell and Steve Vasturia standing wide open at the arc. As painful as it is to see two clutch shooters ready to tie the game, it would have taken a miracle play to make it happen.
Here’s the sequence. pic.twitter.com/1AARqg0yd4
— JoeSchu (@JoeSchuND) January 19, 2017
Possibly Beachem could have spun out to the left and found a Farrell, but it would have been a legendary play in all that traffic. Then, you could say that Bonzie should have found Onions atop the key.
Heartbreaking. Kick it out Bonzie, two of the most clutch guys in ND history are wide open. pic.twitter.com/TgZhIhRSMD
— JoeSchu (@JoeSchuND) January 19, 2017
I’m not sure that’s reasonable either. The clock is at 1.2s on this screen shot. To spot him, deliver the ball, and get the shot off is difficult in that time frame. The opportunity for an “and-1” is probably as good as the kick-out in that framework.
It is easy to pick this apart like the Zapruder Film because the result didn’t go our way. The truth is, the guys made a hell of an effort in a nearly impossible situation.
Conclusion
Despite all of this, ND competed admirably Wednesday night. Following a brutal three game road trip, the Irish emerged an outstanding 2-1 and 5-1 overall in the league. The ACC media picked ND to finish 7th in the league, and they’ve already defeated one top tier team and stood toe-to-toe with another on the road. This is a gritty group with the talent and skill to compete at the highest level. We thought we saw hints of it in their performance against Villanova. Wednesday night served as confirmation that Mike Brey has something special brewing in South Bend – AGAIN.
It sucks to lose, but it is encouraging to see signs of greatness from an outstanding bunch of guys. Go Irish.
That last two minutes was incredible basketball, by both teams. Avoid a letdown Saturday against Cuse, and let’s see if this team can put up a strong challenge against another team they’ve struggled against, Virginia, next week.
Man, I’ll never be able to get over that officiating. Farrell played out of control in the first half, but I’ve never seen that kind of contact allowed on a guy his size (except, maybe, when Louisville is playing). And I still don’t understand how Gibbs got an offensive foul while getting mugged bringing the ball up court. Really marred the fantastic effort displayed by both teams.
Great writeup Joe. I am especially glad to see you break down the ‘Final Sequence.’ I was cursing in real time that 2 wouldn’t help us.
Very encouraged by the gritty performance and the play of TJ and Rex. I know CMB doesn’t typically like this deep a rotation, but I think it is a plus as the season progresses.
I really try to lower my expectations of ACC officiating, but they continue to find ways to frustrate.
Three unrelated things:
1) I thought the same thing on the last second play. If only we could have gotten a kick out…. but can’t really blame them for not — tough to do with the clock so low if you reasonable play a little too quick. If there were a couple more seconds then those guys might have felt comfortable taking a second to look out.
2) As good as Gibbs is, does he worry you with his ball-handling? His handle just doesn’t seem to be crisp (even if it does turn out to be mostly effective – perhaps it’s a little like Shawn Marion’s jumpshot – totally uneven, and you’d never teach it like that but apparently works).
3) As good as the 3-pt shooting was down the stretch we did seem to be the lesser team. We couldn’t get anything else going (off the dribble) down the stretch, and those 3’s saved us and kept it close. Though perhaps some of this is from the lack of fouls called (i.e. for not being able to get things going off the dribble going to the hoop).
FSU deserves a lot of credit for executing down the stretch – made their free throws and some clutch shots to hold us off. AMAZING to me we were in it at the end but a testament to how tough this team is.
I do recall some Marquette games that felt like legalized mugging much like this one. Good guys didn’t wilt and kept bringing it.
Very excited for this team – not sure if it is confidence built over two E8 runs or the substance on the court but I think they could be better than the last two season! Love the depth – always thought Brey’s short bench kept us from our potential. Every single guy coming in is contributing quality minutes, not much of a let down if any one guy is sitting out. Defense so much better/active/aggressive than I can ever remember (which I think is a function of having depth allowing them to play free). FSU takes that to the extreme, they will eat teams alive that lack depth IMO.
Great recap as always, Joe.
While the way that one ended was tough, this game should do nothing to dispel the notion that we have been excellent late in games. One recurring thread through our 5 tight wins to start ACC play was the ability to get kills after the under-4 timeout in every game. Those kills were mostly the product of great defensive intensity, but we were also given quite a few gifts of turnovers, particularly in the Miami and VT games. I thought we brought that same exact intensity yesterday, but Rathan-Mayes was able to hit a couple of step-back jumpers that we couldn’t really defend. Pair that with their free throw execution (and our relative lack thereof) and they deserved the W.
That being said, I hope the guys are furious with dropping that game, and I hope they feel hard-done by the refs. You were very right to pick out some of the more egregious missed calls. The one that really got to me was the missed goaltending. The fact that it went uncalled after Torres was called for a questionable goaltending against VT (and we never saw a replay) poured some salt in the wound. If we can finally knock off ‘Cuse in the ACC, this one will be much easier to move past.
I feel as if we are significantly better at defensively rebounding when Martinas Geben is on the floor. I wonder if there is any data set in which that information can be analyzed. Regardless, it will be difficult beating teams of similar sizes when we give up 30% + Oreb percentage in the game. Yes, ours was similar in the end, but that was aided by a late flurry of offensive boards near the end of the game.
Also, as much as this was a close game, the TO’s got bailed out by the three point line – maybe the extra possessions through less turnovers mitigate the regression of 3P %. Encouraging to do it away from home.
One thing we need to work on is the amount of blocks teams are getting against us, specifically UL, Miami, FSU (yes I know these are very long teams). I just cannot seeing us with a chance against a much better shooting UNC team unless we are either better in the TO% or limiting OR%. The fact we were in it with both of these stats not in our favor is excellent. I cannot wait to see how this team and season evolves as we get to the end of February!
I know there is much consternation about the ACC officiating in pretty much every conference game we play and this game was no exception obviously. Although my bias is definitely coloring my perception, it seems like we usually get the short end of the stick when it comes to the refs (I should really keep a journal each game on how many times I jump out of my seat with arms outstretched vs times where I think we got away with one). Are the ACC refs just bad and its coincidence that we are disproportionately hurt by it? Did Dictator K issue a mandate on pain of death to screw ND since we beat them so frequently? I would appreciate some input.
I’m interested to see how things go at home vs Syracuse. We’re still on top of the league and at home, so let’s see if the calls still go against us. I have a feeling it’s just the road games, but we’ll see.
I feel the same way. The fact that we’ve played three straight road games is probably exacerbating this feeling so I’m hoping it will balance out at games at the JACC. But I really don’t think we get disproportionately favored by officials at home, either. I would love to hop on board with the Coach K mandate of pain conspiracy, or the “ND isn’t fully in the ACC and are therefore screwed over” idea that has been posited, but it’s probably mostly our bias. I do believe that the blue bloods tend to get the benefit of the doubts, especially in home games, but the rest can probably be chalked up to bad officiating.
OK, so let me explain a little.
Do I think there’s a mandate that flows from Mike Krzyzewski’s desk to John Swofford’s to Bryan Kersey’s to the officials? No. I don’t think this is an explicit thing or organized vendetta to screw the Irish. I do, however, think there’s a culture around the league that values the “signature” programs above the balance of the league.
Within the triangle area, you hear a lot of this from NC State fans, who have long felt their “little brother” status against Duke and UNC. I think there’s a pretty clear hierarchy that gives the benefit of the doubt to Duke, UNC, and Virginia. Then, you have the longer standing members. We rate far below those. In fact we rate below them because we won’t, “just go ahead and join.” Those are the exact words long standing ACC fans use when discussing the Irish. It was the same sentiment Molder-of-Trippers K used when asked about Notre Dame’s membership in the ACC.
Again, I do NOT think Bryan Kersey instructs officials to favor the blue bloods and home teams. Nor do I think he’s instructed anyone to keep the Irish down. What I do think is clear is that UNC, Duke, and Virginia are the core of the league, and have been for a long time.
Officials are humans. Until we perfect machine vision and AI, this is going to the case. To rise to the level of an ACC official, you have to really love basketball, and be a fan of the game. To live in this region as a basketball fan, you have to be influenced by these teams.
Moreover, these guys aren’t stupid. They know who writes their paychecks. The signature programs pay the bills. Notre Dame basketball doesn’t put the butts in seats or draw nearly as many eyeballs to crappy RayCom coverage. There’s not the history. There’s not the draw. I get it.
Leader of Out-Of-Control Trippers and Non-Student-One-And-Done’s K has a lot of influence on this league. His disdain for the ND arrangement, which he expressed publicly, rings loudly around the corners of this league. It is silly to pretend otherwise.
There’s no memo. No smoking gun. No darkened conference room. There is, however, a culture. That culture influences humans who wear whistles and interpret complex rules in a fast-moving game played by elite athletes. I believe this culture influences how they officiate games.
I use a lot of shorthand claiming it is directly from K’s desk or that Bryan Kersey hates us. The reality of it all is that there are a lot of complex cultural things going on here, and none of them break in favor of the Irish. Every once and a while, Mike Brey has to stand up for his program. Whether it is picking up a T in a game or laying it out there in a presser, he needs to shake up that culture from time to time.
I’m somewhere between Joe and the rest of the “not quite sold” crew on this one. I definitely think there is a bias and agree that a lot of it is cultural, but also think it’s a result of styles, home courts and bad refs to begin with.
First, styles matter. We tend to play a clean, ball movement offense vs. some of the straight ISO/take it to the teeth O that some of the other teams play and we certainly don’t play the pressing, in your grill D like the Louisvilles of the world. Whether that affects our perception of what gets called or affects what actually gets called (fewer opportunities, things stand out more?), I’d imagine there is some effect.
Plus, we know home crowds influence refs. That’s statistically proven and not shocking. But ND has a much less intimidating atomosphere in the JACC than most other venues in the ACC. Hence, it’s not shocking to suggest we don’t get quite the edge some other teams do at home, or maybe more accurately, the other home edges teams get shocks us because we don’t get it quite as often on our floor.
Now add in the fact that the game is getting faster and it appears (in most sports) that the quality of reffing has gotten worse (HD TV, slow mo replay and etc all may be contributors too), that home court swing of 3 points might be a little larger.
But lastly, to the culture of the ACC and the top coaches ability to influence refs subtly–it’s a real thing. Even from the sense that each conf uses their own refs and MOTK has a relationship with most of those guys going back 30 years. They’re aware he’s a superstar and whether consciously or not, they know that the league offices respond a bit quicker to his criticisms than of an up and comer.
All of those things float in your mind and even if it’s not conscious, affect you when you see a block and are quickly trying to decide whether it had peaked or not. A quarter second goes by without a whistle and you realize that if you call it now, you’re gonna get unloaded on by a raucous crowd and the 50/50 call becomes a 60/40 or 70/30 call. Get 10 of those a game and it results in 2-3 calls swung in one direction or another, adds up fast.
Also, looking for it Saturday for confirmation misses the point, since this has been an ongoing, intermittent thing for 3 years. But as someone said previously, can you remember a time where you really felt like the officials HELPED the Irish?
I basically think you’ve hit the nail on the head here. I don’t think officials are going out of their way to rob ND. I just think it’s:
1) Influenced by wild crowds. I think (or perhaps, feel) like we don’t get overly beneficial calls at home, but I can’t remember a game where I felt like we got screwed at home2) Afraid to make big calls against the conference’s elite teams. Again, I don’t think they’re going out of their way to help those teams win. But if you make a controversial call late against the #10 team in the conference, on their home court, that impacts the outcome of the game, odds are you’re going to end up on TV. If the refs call that goaltend against FSU and ND wins, I’d say there’s at least a 50% chance that call ends up in all of the highlight packages. Right or wrong, you’re going to be hesitant to blow the whistle in that situation.
In the first half of the FSU game, the crowd was going crazy with every ND turnover. The few times the refs blew the whistle, the crowd let them hear it. That’s gotta be tough, but you have to be good enough at your job to not let that impact you.
Well, getting that goaltend call right and getting on TV would be a benefit. I honestly think the guy was in awe of the athleticism. That was so obvious it was painful. Easy “Not Top 10” nominee.
I’d believe a lot of what you’re saying if ND didn’t also get jobbed at home. The Legion shows out for big games, and that balance tends to get us an OK game, but something like Wednesday is just sickening, and I don’t think the home crowd is the only influence at play.
For the record: It isn’t explicit or conscious. It is just part of ACC culture.
All great points. I appreciate everyone’s input. Another interesting fact is that I read an article (http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/01/09/hoop-thoughts-home-court-advantage-baylor-kansas-villanova) earlier this season that showed how home-court advantage is statistically less of a boost than it has been in the past. This is for a sport that carries arguably the largest home-court advantage in any sport. They specifically references improved officiating due to fear of TV announcers jumping on them. I guess we are an outlier.
“Molder-of-Trippers K” – That is awesome. I propose that Coach K be referred to ‘MOTK’ going forward.
I am not (yet) buying into the conspiracy theory of officiating. I think there is always a bias toward the home team and to a lesser extent, the big names, basically UNC & Duke. If we get hosed against ‘Cuse Saturday my opinion could change.