It’s that time of year where we open ourselves up to scrutiny and we encourage our readers to do the same. We’re laying down our 2016 Notre Dame football predictions.
Michael (12-1, Orange Bowl win):
The Irish put together a very strong campaign in 2016 but are left out of the playoffs primarily due to perceived lack of “signature” wins. The offense takes some time to gel with new linemen and receivers, resulting in an early slip-up against Michigan State (the best defense ND sees all year), but is again a top 10 unit nationally.
The defense improves slightly, with fewer big plays given up and turnovers finally becoming an advantage for a Brian Kelly team. Despite winning their last nine games, Notre Dame is ranked fifth in the final CFP rankings behind one-loss conference champs from the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12. Much of the national debate revolves around strength of schedule, where the Irish defeat quality teams like USC and Stanford that have 3+ losses due to incredibly tough slates in 2016. Reverse jinx: activated!
Andy (10-2):
It’s hard to know what to expect from this team, except the offense will hum no matter who plays QB (I believe in the offensive talent). I’m leery of the defense (shocking!) and if ND will have as much ESPLOSIVA without Will Fuller and CJ Prosise. I expect the schedule will be tougher than it appears, based on nothing other than that’s always how it works when the schedule looks easy. It says a lot about the talent ND has accumulated the last several years that I’m not particularly optimistic and am still predicting a 10-win season.
Marko (14-0):
After years of building, positive progress and close calls, the Irish finally get over the hump and finish the season undefeated and as National Champions. They will build quickly from their initial top-10 raking to lighting the #1 on Grace Hall following some strong early-season performances and a few hiccups from the preseason favorites like Ohio State. On the back of a young offensive newcomers and a surprisingly aggressive defense will steamroll into the playoffs. Fans will be surprised by strong mid-season challenges from teams like Syracuse and Duke. We’ll go so far as to predict an overtime finish in the Championship Game, except this time the Irish come out on top on a 110 mph lightning bolt from Sergio Perkovic that leaves an exit wound in the opposing goalie.
We’re talking about NDLax still, correct?
Fish (11-1):
Strong quarterback and line play make up for untested talent at WR; the offense stays on the field when they need to and puts up points. The defense holds up enough in VanGorder’s third year to let the offense shine. My head says 10-2, but my heart says 11-1, with the heart-breaker against either Michigan State or Stanford.
Jim (10-2):
In light of recent events, I will have to pull back from my initial assessment. I think this is the year the defense starts to come into its own and the schedule looks favorable with some of the more difficult opponents breaking in new QBs.
Tyler (10-2):
In light of the recent arrests, I almost dropped this prediction down to 9-3. But I think with the safety reads supposedly being more simplified this year, Studstill will perform at least as well as Redfield has these past couple of years, maybe even better. The defense as a whole should perform at about the same level as last year, and the schedule this year is manageable enough for this team to go 10-2 despite going over a few bumps along the road.
As far as a bowl prediction, I can’t really give one without knowing who the Irish will be matched up against. I think it’s about time we won a major bowl, though.
Jaden (10-2):
Notre Dame beats Texas in a close one to start the season. After a tight home game with Mich St, ND beats Duke by two touchdowns and is hitting their stride. Back at home in October, Notre Dame wins another classic against Stanford. However, the next weekend the defense plays uninspired and gets lit by Kaaya. First lost of the season. The Irish head into the Coliseum in the final game and lose by a field goal. RJIII and Juju end up being too much for us in the end.
Notre Dame plays in the Orange Bowl and is closer to breaking through than in years past, but still can’t get over the hump and lose by a touchdown in the final minutes.
Eric (10-2):
This season will be Revolver to last year’s Rubber Soul in the sense that they’ll kind of melt together as two very similar campaigns. Even more so if Kizer is the one who takes most of the snaps. Going back-to-back double-digit win seasons will be a nice achievement to check off the list. Still, I’m not convinced it’ll feel like a really healthy and enjoyable season–especially pending a bowl invite and/or victory. I think the defense will be better, marginally statistically, but it won’t always feel that way and it’s going to be tough for people to continue supporting VanGorder. We may be past the point where just being better is good enough.
The offense should be really good again, with the usual flaws popping up somewhere–turnovers most likely. I’m still afraid of what this quarterback controversy could do to the team but I’m equally heartened to go into games with both quarterbacks if needed. Let’s hope that’s a wash in the long run. I also think the odds are high that USC and Stanford lose a lot of games (as many as 10 combined wouldn’t shock me) and in the annals of Irish history this collection of 10 wins isn’t going to knock anyone’s socks off.
I had a really, really hard time trying to pick a pair of losses somewhere on the schedule. Again, not because we’re going to be so great. Not very many scary teams and the talented ones have more questions at quarterback than us and more things to be answered in other areas.
Adam (8-4):
It seems like the defense lacks top-end talent and a scheme with any possibility for consistency. Combine that with a muddied quarterback situation, an unproven receiving corps, and a backfield with some recent injury history (not to mention the dreaded off-the-field distraction), and I just have a hard time seeing a consistent enough football team to get through a harder-than-it-looks schedule without a few lumps.
Larz (9-3):
Is this the year that the Irish get into the playoffs? I doubt it. While the overall depth and talent level in South Bend has improved, there isn’t enough talent to simply reload. I expect the team to take a small step back this year. Hence the 9-3 prediction. In the end, losing at least 2 key players at each level of the defense will prove to be a problem. On the offensive side of the ball, uncertainty at the QB position and inexperience at receiver will lead to an offense that shows flashes of brilliance while being frustratingly inconsistent.
Sheepishly bringing up the rear, because I didn’t get my prediction in in time (some of my ND professors are knowingly nodding right now)…
13-1: Because why the hell not? The defense is inconsistent at first but puts it all together during the Michigan State game. They won’t be elite, but they’ll be good enough. Devin Studstill, or “Stud” as his classmates know him*, will be a freshman All-American, Daelin Hayes will have 6-8 sacks, and Jarron Jones will stay healthy for a full season and destroy opposing offensive lines throughout. On offense, Kizer seizes the reins during the Texas game and becomes the clear QB1, with Zaire unhappy as QB1B but playing the good soldier through the season before seeking a grad transfer. The triumvirate of Hunter, St. Brown, and Sanders are a nightmare for opposing defenses, when they’re not getting gashed by Josh Adams or undergoing the inexorable Chinese water torture of Tarean Folston.
Despite a mid-season slip-up at NC State, wins over Stanford, Michigan State, USC, and improved Texas and Virginia Tech squads are enough to get the Irish into the playoff as the usual carnage hits elsewhere. Notre Dame draws Michigan in the first round, who rode an I-would-call-it-Charmin-soft-but-that’s-an-insult-to-Charmin soft schedule to the #1 seed, and exposes them badly. The Irish then draw Alabama in the championship game in a rematch of 2012; with Saban having a week and a half instead of two months to prepare, and with a group that didn’t have 21 of 22 starters who would sign with an NFL team (not a joke), and more talent on the Notre Dame side, the outcome is different in a slugfest for the ages.
On the train for glory. CHOO CHOO. STONE.
* I’m not making this up – that’s how Jalen Elliott referred to him in an interview. I love it.
I’d say floor 8-4, ceiling 11-1 (going off win probabilities I saw somewhere a long time ago).
Would be happy with a double digit win season coupled with a win in a New Year bowl. Anything more would be gravy, less would be disappointing given the talent and depth of the team.
I don’t see how we can expect a better defense this year. We lose a superb LB, a real good corner, 2 quality DL and head into this season with a Fr. safety and another coming off his second ACL surgery. Therefore, I expect to see the same maddening inconsistencies. IE, a 3 and out, followed by a 4 play 68 yd. drive.
If we get by Texas, I think the QB situation will be worked out and the offense will hum most of the season. The question will be can they score enough on the occasions the defense lets them down? Without Will Fuller, I don’t think so, 10-2.
Preseason 2012, we were convinced the defense would be a disaster. Te’o was back and of course that was a big deal, but we lost our next four top tacklers – Harrison Smith, Robert Blanton, Gary Gray, and Darius Fleming. Gray and Blanton were replaced by a junior converted wide receiver and a true freshman running back. Starting in Smith’s place was Zeke Motta, who we knew very little about, and Jamoris Slaughter, the lone veteran in the secondary, was lost for the year two games in and replaced by a redshirt freshman wide receiver. Kapron Lewis-Moore had started to break out in 2011 but then went down to a knee injury, and we weren’t sure what we’d get out of him. Aaron Lynch had bailed.
Does that mean that we’ll be comparable to the 2012 defense this year? No, of course not, I don’t think we’ll even be close. I’m just bringing it all up to emphasize that questions marks are a necessity in college football, and their presence doesn’t necessarily serve as a harbinger of doom.
I’m not sold on the hit that we’ll take from losing Keivarae Russell. I think he was rusty and, quite frankly, disengaged for a substantial portion of last season, and I don’t think that presence will be too hard to replace. I think Cole Luke will be better than last year. Tranquill is at least replacement value for Shumate, and Studstill is at least replacement value for and quite possibly an improvement on Redfield. Morgan should be an upgrade over Schmidt. Jaylon is a huge loss, no way around that, but I think our linebacker play will be good enough overall. Sheldon Day is also a loss, as is Okwara, but if Jones and Tillery stay healthy and engaged I think we’ll be fine there as well.
Add in the rumored shift in BVG’s philosophy as well.
Am I confident that we’ll improve? No, not really. Do I believe that we will? Yes.
My big thing has been those who don’t think we will be better on defense versus those who think it’s literally impossible.
Couple years back FSU lost like 16 players and 11 went in the Draft, including 3 first rounders and 5 overall in the top 2 rounds.
Then they finished +553 in points and went 14-0 as the best FSU team of all-time. Sometimes it’s hard to tell if people are saying we won’t be better versus we can’t be but we most definitely can get better. Especially when we didn’t lose a large amount of players.
Great way to put it. Those who say that it’s “literally impossible” for the defense to get better (not putting tlndma in this group, just saying) I think need to take a step back and breathe. There are plenty of reasons for concern, but there are also valid reasons to believe the defense can take a step forward. We’ll find out the real answers soon enough.
Guys I heard James Onwualu make a strange comment about Jaylon. Onwualu was talking about how he’s been trying to bring the young guys along, have them over for cookouts, and generally be a good leader. He was asked about Jaylon and he said something like “yeah he mostly kind of kept to himself.” I also remember hearing some comments about Jaylon just kind of going rover and leaving Joe Schmidt scrambling to do more than his job. I wonder if Jaylon was a bit more of a “me” guy than we realize/care to admit (I mean who doesn’t love freakish athleticism performed by a jacked Predator looking guy, followed by turf strike celebrations) and if that might not have negatively impacted VanG’s Ds. This would have had zero effect on the awful safety play and blown coverages in the secondary, but still I wanted to at least have the discussion.
As much as I loved rooting for Jaylon, I also wouldn’t mind seeing some “Ewing Theory” come into play. That said, I think the secondary is more of where the D has some question marks. Smith will be missed, but we still have experienced back-ups at least.
Good catch on the Onwualu quote Clay, but I think you’re connecting dots that aren’t related. From what I remember hearing about Jaylon in the past, the “he mostly kind of kept to himself” is in line with him being a leader by action and not by words. Schmidt was a rah-rah, locker room speech guy, Jaylon was not. So when Onwualu says that, I think he just means that Jaylon wasn’t the type to host barbecues or rally the troops, William Wallace style.
As far as him freelancing last year, I don’t know. I’ve heard that come up before too – I think even our own Larz had mentioned it as a possibility. There was a play against Michigan in 2013 where Farley looked really bad, and it turned out in Larz’s film room article that he looked bad because he was scrambling to cover an area that Jaylon had vacated to (incorrectly) go freelancing. But that was a true freshman in the Big Outhouse at night, which is much different context from his role last year. Schmidt was pretty limited by the ankle recovery, so he may well have been needed to freelance more.
I think the biggest factor killing VanGorder’s defenses the last couple of years has been injury, with scheme design being right behind it. If we can keep everyone relatively healthy, and if the rumored adjustments in the scheme actually come to pass, I like our chances of treading water or even – gasp! – improving on defense.
Thanks Brendan for not putting words in my mouth. I don’t think it’s impossible but, I do think it’s unlikely that the defense improves much.
I would like Tranquill over Shumate minus the 2 ACL reconstructions and Studstill over Redfield if he were not a true freshman. That’s a big leap of faith to count on both of those guys to be improvements, considering their circumstances.
I agree that every team has questions coming into a season. Pointing out what happened in 2012 only gives me a tiny bit more hope for 2016. Perhaps Tillery and Hayes will step up and remind us of Tuitt and Nix. We can hope.
Lastly, are we really going to start downplaying how much Jaylon did last year, to make us feel better about the upcoming year ?
It’s literally impossible (heh) to downplay what Jaylon did last year – he was the eraser, and offensive coordinators had to account for where he was at all times. There’s nobody like that at any level of the defense this year, at least not that we know about right now. Jaylon is a big loss, no question. I do think that overall we could be OK at the second level, though, as the unit as a whole should be better.
Somebody smarter about this football stuff put it much better than I usually do: Last year, there was a clear best choice for an offensive coordinator when attacking our linebackers. I’m not looking to start yet another referendum on Joe Schmidt, but football is a business, and business is about the bottom line, and the bottom line said attacking Joe had the highest profit margin. This year, that decision should be more difficult as none of the three spots is clearly weaker than any of the others.
It is a conundrum.
Was Joe Schmidt really bad?
Was Joe Schmidt constantly trying to cover for an out of position Jaylon Smith?
Was Jaylon Smith getting out of position to cover for an underwhelming Joe Schmidt?
But I do agree, in general I would prefer 2 4 star LB to a 5 star and a 3 star. Let’s see how it pans out.
/delayed blitz directly into guard
Yeah I’m not so down on the D. Definitely we are in trouble if a LB goes down, and who knows what the safeties will look like. But I like our starting LBs a lot–many think having a very good, bona fide, died in the wool Mike will make a big difference–and the safeties cannot possibly be worse. Especially if the staff is planning on running a more conservative scheme with the safeties actually providing safety via Cover 2 Man Under or just having them play a lot of deep zone.
Elsewhere, it’s hard not to like the D-line as a whole better. Yes we lost Sheldon, but we have like 4+ top-250 guys who are either proven, primed, or phenoms. We will be better at corner. We will be better across the board at LB, despite the loss of one generational talent type player. Again I come back to safety is question mark and lack of LB depth is scary.
Offense will roll. Hunter will seamlessly transition to being a No. 1 wideout, Sanders will make people look absolutely foolish when called on, and EQ and Boykin will help stretch the field and keep people honest. Running game gon’ run game, though I agree with Murtaugh that losing Dexter hurts. Jones sounds about as ready as a freshmen can be, thankfully.
I say 11-1 regular season, no playoff berth because schedule, and a bowl win. My heart says 12-0 and a playoff berth but I’m getting too old for that shhhh…. You saw it here first, folks–Mouth is now old and jaded. But secretly (not secretly) I’m going to still predict 12-0 and a playoff berth (loss in NC game) so I can say I told everyone so.
My guess is that those who think it’s impossible to be better on d feel that way because they think BVG is awful.
While I have been occasionally frustrated by the frequent use of d linemen in pass coverage, I don’t think I know enough about the game to point the finger unequivocally at BVG. Injuries/suspensions have been a huge factor these past two years.
So, given my boundless optimism at this time of year, I am hopeful that we can overcome the loss of our starting free safety and more importantly avoid some injuries and see what BVG can really do.
Lots of this. Without all the injuries this defense would have been halfway decent the last few years. This is now year 3, most positions have the type of player BVG wants and this year’s freshman are the first to not have to learn the defense at the same time as the upperclassmen. i’m sticking to my prediction that this year will be a top 25-30ish unit. It took Narduzzi that long to get his defense running at Michigan St so i’m going to hang my neophyte football analyst analysis on that almost completely unrelated fact.
Let me do it for you: I don’t have to have a Larz-like knowledge of the game to realize BVG is awful.
We’ll never totally agree on this, KG. I understand your lack of respect for him but I defer to three things in judging. First, the injuries on defense have been horrendous. Second, a couple of supposed 5 stars have been very slow learners. Redfield is gone now, hopefully Morgan really has progressed. Thirdly, BVG is coaching pretty close to the top of the pyramid in coordinator jobs and Kelly is no dummy. He can’t really be awful.
Lastly, my brother who’s retired from D1 coaching at big time programs says that, while he’s had some ups and downs, he’s a solid coach.
lets hope we’re all happier after this season, but for sure there are a lot of very inexperienced guys that must play there this year with the departures and suspensions etc. And injuries, already, some new, some lingering.
I think the big difference between this defense and the 2012 defense is that the 2010 and 2011 defenses showed signs of life and improvement. Whereas the 2014 and 2015 were Chucky W level. How often do coordinators come in, have terrible defenses for 2 years, then suddenly turn things around? Heck, we could make a big improvement in defense and I’m not even sure how noticeable it would be on the field.
I really doubt our defense will be much better than last year, irregahdless of overall talent. But think it will put up better numbers due to weak offenses.
The good news, is that with bad to quite bad D, we still won 10 games. So see no reason why we can’t this year, especially with slight improvement.
Also good news is that take aways are statistically very likely to increase. They are random, so when we suddenly get a lot of picks and fumble recoveries, it won’t actually be because of some improved scheme or players finally getting it. It will simply be luck of the bounce (and like 9 first time starters at QB) regressing to the norm.
But we’ll still hear about how an increased number of turnovers are due to GRR ATTACKING DEFENSE FINALLY WORKING GRRR
This is one of my biggest pet peeves in all of sports discussion. Take aways are so random. Even the number of TOs a defense gets in the first half of a season is in no way predictive of TOs in the second half of the season. So unless every team changes its scheme every year halfway through the season, then defensive scheme doesn’t actually impact TOs.
I know stats bear y’all out, but at the same time I think we can still say that a BDBBDBD is going to come down with many fewer picks because it doesn’t pressure the qb into bad decisions (excepting the 2012 edition) and doesn’t challenge receibers, instead opting to make them catch it and keep everything in front of it. Also its not like you cant make a concerted effort to emphasize gang tackling and stripping. So no you can’t predict how many times ND will recover a fumbled oblong ball, but undoubtedly there are things a D can do to create opportunities for TOs.
Honestly, I don’t think BDBBDBD vs BVGBID makes any difference with INTs. The big difference, and very real and significant one, is 3 and outs, TFL, sacks, that sort of disruption. I totally get why people think TOs should be more common with attacking D, it makes logical sense, and I used to assume it was true.
But, if anything it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw more TOs with a BDBBDBD simply because they would run more plays during a drive, creating more opportunities for a TO. Of course a 3-out and punt is essentially the same, but faster, than a 10 play drive and TO.
Between the perception that BVG’s D would bring more TOs and the Pats Ballghazi railroading, I went pretty far down the rabbit hole with regards to TO statistics after 2014. There are A LOT of studies on the statistics of TOs.
I even looked for analysis of different schemes, and either those haven’t been done, or they haven’t been posted online. Or, I’m a bad Googler (am admittedly a very lazy Googler).
In terms of creating havoc vis a vis TOs, I have read that QB hurries do correlate a little with INTs. It isn’t particularly strong, but it is actually a stronger correlation than sacks (sacks have basically no correlation). I was surprised that there would be a difference between stats that seem almost 1-1. But again, all correlation means is they have both happened at the same time (just like W’s and rushing %).
Overall the strongest correlation to takeaways is the quality of opponent you play and frequency of that QB to throw picks (which is even way more random than I expected).
The thing that convinced me the most of true randomness of takeaways is that TOs in the first half of a season, are in no way predictive of TOs in the second half of the season. Similarly, TOs in one year are in no way predictive of TOs in the next year.
Most of these studies are from the NFL, so there is a chance there is some difference in CFB. But The Power Rank has done some good CFB analysis and basically determined the smartest team to bet on is the team with the worst TO differential from the year before.
I still think BVG is mediocre at best, so don’t actually expect much substantive improvement, but do think we will see improvement in scoring D and total yards, simply because of regression to the norm of TOs. This leads me to a very strange place. I intellectually think this team will win more games than I emotionally think it will. Has that ever happened to an ND fan before?
Interesting stuff, jb. It must have taken a lot of time to do the research.
Im curious. If BVG is mediocre at best, why would Kelly, a smart guy paid to win, have hired him and kept him?
Yeah, I read a lot of articles. I was a math major, love that kind of stuff, so it wasn’t bad.
My thoughts on why BVG got hired even if mediocre. He had worked with BK before. He had 1 successful year at UGA. He has worked in the NFL for a while. Mustache.
As for why he has been kept. BK is very loyal to coaches, don’t think he has fired anyone. Many coordinators stay at a school past their point of effectiveness. It’s only been two years, and his defenses have dealt with pretty substantial injuries.
My prediction: 9-3
Texas (L) – new offense and improved talent will surprise the ND defense
Mich St (L) – QB controversy will become an issue by this point
USC (L) – 5 star talent playing at home beats ND 4 star talent
The nice thing about making predictions for this season is that even a pessimistic prediction wouldn’t be as pessimistic as it has been in years past. If everything goes to crap, it’s still probably not a 7-5 season like it has been not all that long ago. The ceiling is still high, but the floor isn’t as low.
Michigan State and Stanford will be coin toss games. If they both come up ND’s way, they could be a playoff team. Two or three teams will come out barnstorming, same as every year – but outside of Miami or USC, I don’t think any of them have the talent to really come away with the win.
10-2 feels a little too optimistic, but seems like the most reasonable prediction. If they manage a second straight 10-2 season, I’ll certainly be satisfied.
10-2 seems right to me. I basically agree with the conventional wisdom except I don’t think the loss of talent on defense hurts us that much because BVG’s system reduces defensive playmakers to chess pieces designed to mess with the opposing quarterback’s head. Hopefully we do get more turnovers this year as the sight of defensive tackles in pass coverage blows the fragile minds of inexperienced quarterbacks.
My head says 10-2. My heart says 14-0. My sense of impending doom says everyone gets arrested and the program is shut down.
This is the first time I miss the ability to turn comments green
Given everything that’s happened this offseason it’s unusually hard for me to find reasons these guys will be able to overcome whatever adversity they’ll face during the season. On offense at the end of last year it looked like they’d be returning a 6’4″ athletic freak of nature at WR in Robinson and at 6’5″ the next great ND tight end in Jones plus Hunter and the cadre of freshman and sophomores. Losing those two big targets really is a bit of a hit to what I expect out of the offense. On the other side of the ball I’m actually probably more hopeful than some people. I think really highly of Onwualu and am convinced that Cole Luke can be a shut down corner even though that’s only come in flashes, rather than consistently the last couple of years. At LB taking Jalen off of any team including the Dallas Cowboys makes your LB corp worse, but replacing the combination Smith/Schmidt should be doable with the talent supposedly on the sideline last year. The trouble at safety really exacerbated itself last year when Tranquil went down, so having him back there is reason to hope as well. Given all of that, they’ve got a lot of tough games on the calendar this year, including games some people might be dismissing as “should-be-easy” wins, like in week one against Texas. Texas might have the best defense in the Big 12, which I will grant is a relative measure, while the Irish can’t figure out who is going to take the first snap on offense of the game. That’s not a good sign. USC by recruiting metrics likely has the second most talented team in the country and they’ve got all year to figure out how to not be the USC of the last couple years. In between those we only face off against last year’s Big 10 Champs and playoff team who are taking a scrimmage game and then an off week to prepare for us and the PAC-12/Rose Bowl champs who have the pre-season Heisman favorite in their backfield. Looking at the problems we have and those four games (plus 5 others against prior year bowl teams) it’s hard to come up with a double digit regular season win total except for one thing. We have what appear to be pretty darn good linemen this year on both sides of the ball and great line play can cover up a multitude of sins. If McGlinchy, Bars, Nelson, and Mustipher plus Tillery, Jones, Cage, and Rochelle can play near their potential that gives the Irish some latitude to figure out all of the other stuff. Staying true to form I’ll take an optimistic reading of the tea leaves and we’ll split the four games I mentioned and overpower the rest of the field with superior line play for a 10-2 regular season. Then, for the love of all that is holy, please beat whoever we face in a major bowl game. NB:… Read more »
One nit. Well, a couple actually, since I obviously have a more optimistic outlook, but I’ll keep it to this:
> while the Irish can’t figure out who is going to take the first snap on offense of the game.
I think Kelly knows full well who is going to take the first snap, and I think it’s going to be Kizer.
I’ll be thrilled if Kizer comes out and plays until we’re up by 30 and then is the number one QB for the rest of the season. I don’t tend to think of us having that kind of luck, but I’d be thrilled if that’s how it all works out.
Yes, but will he have the traditional delay of game penalty or time out on the first play?
Not if our traditional false start on the first play happens first!
I guess I’m not sure why everyone is so optimistic about this team.
I feel like we learned in 2013 that leadership is extremely important in college sports, considering we only lost a few guys to the draft from that 2012 team. Yes, we lost Golson for the year, but the returning talent on defense was supposed to be better than the talent of the 2012 team…yet the defense simply was not as good.
This year, we lost a ton of talent AND all of the team’s leadership, outside of the two guys competing for the QB job. I love Onwualu, but he might be the only actual leader on the defense. There’s talent around him, but no one willing to take charge and be a vocal leader. Combine that with people thinking the receivers will magically produce to their talent level despite every practice report talking about inconsistency and frustration, and more than 10 wins seems kind of crazy to me.
I’ll agree that the team’s floor isn’t as low as it has been in years past, but I have a hard time predicting anything better than 9-3. I’d love to be surprised.
Practice reports from one day of practice talked about inconsistency with the young receivers. Corey Holmes has had a little more trouble overall, but everyone else has righted the ship – and in the case of St. Brown and Sanders, definitively so.
Luke and Tranquill have been mentioned by coaches and reporters as being very vocal in camp. Ditto for Rochell, who Kelly said has taken command in the defensive line meetings. And of course you have Onwualu, who seems to be one of those guys who just goes about things The Right Way(tm). I don’t think there was any leadership in the secondary last year, honestly. As noted above, Jaylon led by actions rather than words, and while Schmidt was vocal and also did things The Right Way(tm), I wouldn’t be surprised if his leadership didn’t resonate with everyone. Day led through talking and doing and no question that’s a big leadership void, but I don’t think the actual overall void is as big as many believe it to be.
I’d be absolutely stunned if we don’t win 10 games in the regular season. Stunned. I could be way off, of course, but I would consider even nine wins a pretty big disappointment.
I’m unfortunately not remembering which articles I saw, but I feel confident that I read media questioning the receiving corps on more than one occasion. You’re more tuned in to things than I am, so I’ll take your word that some guys will step up; however, it doesn’t reassure me that we have a definitive answer for when opponents stack the box.
I’ll buy Tranquill. I hope he stays healthy…I think he can be tremendous for the secondary. Haven’t seen anywhere about Luke spending extra time or effort to bring guys along. Rochell is a beast, but Kelly’s comments came across like coachspeak to me. Someone asked him about Rochell and leadership, and Kelly essentially said “oh, yeah, he’s coming along.” Maybe it was sincere and I’m going to look like a fool. I can certainly see 10 wins on the schedule, but I’ve been an ND fan just long enough not to be surprised by a WTF loss or two.
Well, to clarify, there was one day that was really bad and sent everyone into a bit of a panic. Overall, St. Brown had some issues earlier in camp when his thumb was injured, Holmes had the dropsies all camp, Claypool looked like a freakish athlete who’s raw, and McKinley looked decent and will probably play but also looked like a freshman.
The encouraging signs are that St. Brown and Sanders really pulled away from everyone late in camp. Sanders is the unquestioned starter at slot now. Evan Sharpley said his favorite match-up of camp was CJ Sanders vs. Shaun Crawford in one-on-ones – a battle of the tiny titans, if you will. Boykin all of a sudden started making plays later in camp. And of course, Chris Finke has arguably been the steadiest performer throughout, and I expect he’ll contribute as well.
I completely understand where you’re coming from. We have two guys who have a combined two career receptions starting at receiver. I’m not saying there’s nothing to worry about, I just want to highlight that the justified concerns from earlier in camp should be assuaged by St. Brown and Sanders’s emergence late. That sort of got overshadowed in all the hype about the season drawing nearer and then the arrests, but it did start to trend up.
Stunned you say? One must ALWAYS be prepared to be stunned as an ND fan. Just take a glance back at last weekend. 😩
Im hopeful for 10-2, but don’t have a high confidence level yet. I don’t like the 2 QB approach, I think it just irritates both guys, and I need to be sold on Morgan being the real deal. Would love to be sold though.
Haha, well played, my fuzzy green friend. Well played.
No no, not the fruit! The country, New Zealand 😊
Well for one thing, we’re not going to run the garbage Tommy Rees Empty Backfield Offense this season.
So you’re saying they’ll never see it coming….
Counterpoint: Leadership, at least in the way it is portrayed by some outlets, isn’t THAT important. I enjoy the II podcast but it seems like leadership is 40% of their episodes sometimes.
I also feel like we often back date leadership after the fact a lot, too. As few as 18 months ago most of the 2015 captains weren’t viewed with such amazing leadership. But after a 10-win season, “Wow, what great leaders!”
I think it’s important to some degree but often overplayed. Leadership = how many games we win, basically.
It would have been nice to have had some type of leadership this past weekend.
There’s all types of leaders. Some on, some off field. Some in the heat of battle and some in the heat of August. So, you’re right E, we won’t know if this team has the right kind, at the right time. til Thanksgiving at the earliest.
Captains named : Owaulu, Rochelle, McGlinchey, Hunter Jr.
Neither QB. Interesting.
Tim Prister at Scout made some good points about this today. First, there have been precious few Notre Dame quarterbacks who were captains since the Era of Ara started 52 years ago. Ten, in fact, out of 147 captains overall. He also notes that the last time there was a quarterback captain who lost his starting job, in 1983 when Blair Kiel gave way to Steve Beuerlein, it created a lot of tension. So the smart/safe thing to do, it seems, was to name neither of them a captain.
In his press conference yesterday, in response to a direct question about it, Kelly said he thought either of them would make great captains and they were both under consideration, but it was just “the luck of the draw.”
yeah, I get that and don’t disagree. I’d guess that if he had a clear number one at QB the outcome might have been different.
I’d love to get to a clear number one soon.
Does anyone think that the dropped passes during practices are a result of the receivers having to catch passes from alternating quarterbacks, and on top of that those two QBs happen to be a lefty and a righty? Maybe there would be fewer drops if the receivers could work more with one QB who was designated as the starter?
That could be a factor. Balls thrown from lefties and righties tend to have a different trajectory. One of the quarterbacks also might also put more behind his throws or have more touch on his throws. And it’s hard to get in sync with one guy when you have to split your time with another guy.
From my eyes, there are only 3 games that should be trouble on our schedule: USC, Stanford, and MSU. I don’t see us losing all 3, but it’s hard for me to say we won’t drop at least one. My line on this season is 10.5 games, and my heart says over, head says under.
I was just looking at this nice 30-minute recap from one of my favorite memories, the 2014 Michigan game #RememberTheSix:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjJOFQq7OqI
(The actual game starts about 7 1/2 minutes in.)
It was just as wonderful as I remember it, but I was also hit by a few things.
One, Brian VanGorder’s uninjured 1st string defense was lights out. It’s a small sample size, but I just feel like finally having a healthy defense that’s been in his system COULD work. If not, I’ll probably reluctantly join the “let’s make a change” crowd.
Two, here were the names making plays:
Golson, McDaniel, Prosise, Robinson, Brown, Koyack, Carlisle, Bryant, Fuller, Jaylon, Day, Schmidt, Farley, Schumate, Redfield, Riggs, Okwara, Hill, Brindza. The other players noticeable on the field: Stanley, Martin, Elmer, Lombard…
There’s a running theme here. They’re all gone. I mean, I know that’s how college football works. Turnover is the name of the game.
But I expected to at least see a few folks who are in line to blossom this year. It was only 2 seasons ago. The names called of people still on the team: Folston, Tranquill, Cage. Even looking at numbers to spot others, I only found a few: Luke, Trumbetti, Onwualu.
It’s just crazy to me how few of this season’s starters have more than a year of playing experience. No position on the offense has a 3rd year starter.
Personally, I’m not super concerned about it. I believe Kelly’s Death Star is fully operational, and we’re going to be reloading now. We are no longer filling important starting roles with the Reeses, Schmidts, McDaniels, Calabreses, and Collinsworths of years past.
But I understand why other people would be, with those “leadership” concerns and whatnot.
UBD, certainly injuries on defense played a role in 2014. The first 5 games they played well. The next 7, not so much (36 pts. per game against, aprox.). That’s about as bad as it gets. There will be injuries this year too. Let’s hope they fill the gaps a whole lot better in 2016.
Sure, there may only be those three games that “should” give us trouble. Has one 10-3 season convinced us that we can’t lose to the Tulsas, Louisvilles, or Northwesterns? It shouldn’t, given how flat we played against Virginia, Boston College and Temple last year. Yes, we won–but given the uncertainty at many positions, the idea that we can’t lose a game to a team we “should” beat is hard for me to understand.
I guess my prediction is 9-3; losses to 2 of either Stanford, Michigan State, or USC (though I think we can beat all of them) and one loss to another team like VT or NC State.
Yep any game outside of Nevada and Army is loseable. But this isn’t a problem that’s isolated to ND. Plenty of good teams lose to mediocre teams every year.
Look at last year
MSU and Oklahoma were both 1 loss playoff teams, who did they lose to?
Nebraska (5-7), Texas (5-7)
It does seem like ND plays more than its fair share of close games with mediocre teams, but it drives me crazy when some media people pretend that every Top 10 team beats all their unranked opponents by 3 TD. “Where is NDs killer instinct?”
VA Tech and NC State both worry me a lot, too. Especially with the ACC refs the way they are…
FLAGGED!
Simultaneous offensive pass interference and targeting…a runner.
Is targeting still a rule this year? Even after all the griping I did about it on the internet last year? Terrible.
Yes, but they’ve made it reviewable. The replay official can stop play and add targeting that wasn’t called on the field and reverse targeting that was called improperly.
@That should solve all the problems with it.@