The Notre Dame-Boston College series only took a one year break but that game at Fenway seems forever ago. The Battle for the Ireland Trophy resumes again this Saturday in Chestnut Hill with Notre Dame’s first visit since 2012. That visit was excruciatingly boring so let’s hope for more fireworks this time around.

Notre Dame (-13.5) at Boston College

Alumni Stadium
Chestnut Hill, Massachussetts
Date: Saturday, September 16, 2017
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Television: ESPN
Series: 14-9-0 Notre Dame

The Eagles have entered their 5th season under Steve Addazio and it’s been one long reign of Groundhog Day. The defense is some variety of good and the offense is still a hot mess. It’s been no fewer than 4 straight years where this has been the case in Boston.

3 Matchups to Watch

Harold Landry vs. Tommy Kraemer/Robert Hainsey

Landry is Boston College’s best player by several country miles and created a bit of a surprise by returning to school for his senior season after finishing 5th nationally in tackles for loss and first in sacks. He’s off to a bit of a slow start for his talent (5 solo tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack, no hurries) but could be a matchup nightmare against Notre Dame’s inexperienced right tackles.

Oh, he also likes to line up way, way, way, way outside. Like, as a 17-tech defensive end damn near in the slot. It might be a good time to run the ball straight at him a lot. He was largely neutralized by the Irish back in 2015, for what it’s worth.

Jonathan Bonner vs. Ben Petrula 

The Eagles offensive line is in rough shape as seen by their 145-yard rushing average and zero touchdowns through 2 games. The big sore spot is at center where week one starter and captain Jon Baker suffered a knee injury against Northern Illinois and is out for the season. In his place, BC turned to true freshman Ben Petrula with their backup also injured.

Petrula (6-5, 300 and No. 33 guard from 2017) was teammates with Irish quarterback Brandon Wimbush at St. Peter’s Prep in 2014. It’s time for Jonathan Bonner (and other Notre Dame linemen) to eat.

Alumni Stadium vs. Irish Focus

An amazing stat is that this is only the 9th visit by Notre Dame to Alumni Stadium in Chestunut Hill–if this is a rivalry that hammers home the point that it’s truly just a modern rivalry. After this weekend, Brian Kelly will have more games at BC than another Notre Dame coach.

Kelly hasn’t had many issues on the road against the Eagles, outscoring them 52-19 overall. Realistically, the biggest risk for Notre Dame is coming into this one sleepy and unfocused. You’d think it’s super unlikely coming off the Georgia loss. The game moving from a noon time slot also helps a lot.

2 Stats to Consider

12 Tackles for Loss

The Boston College defense has made its name in recent years by wreaking havoc in opponent backfields. This year hasn’t gotten off to a good start with just 12 tackles for loss through 2 games, a drop of over 25% from a year ago. This has been a bugaboo for the Irish in the past but they come in to this game with 5 more tackles for loss. You couldn’t say that about many games in recent years.

30+ Yard Plays

Boston College is going to need some mental errors and breakdowns in the Irish defense to compete in this game. We know the Irish were shut down on offense last week against Georgia a week after being super explosive versus Temple. So far this year, BC only has one play of 30+ yards from scrimmage. It’d be one heck of a win if they pulled this one off with a handful of long, sustained drives.

1 Prediction

We don’t need to pretend, this Boston College team is largely trash. This is the 7th meeting with the Eagles since I’ve been covering Irish football, and while BC is never swimming in talent, I can’t remember a time when they’ve had so few quality college football players and pro prospects.

That’s not much of an endorsement of Steve Addazio. He’s also 4-17 in his last 21 ACC games which kind of hides the fact that the Eagles actually went to a bowl game last year–and even won it!

The consensus is that this Boston College defense has taken a step back from a year ago (bad news for their offense, see below) although they were playing at a very high level the past couple years. For example, the Eagles held 6 opponents to under 4.2 yards per play a year ago and already both Northern Illinois and Wake Forest have averaged 4.96 and 4.35 respectively.

That’s not a huge change but it’s something that could be the difference between a somewhat close game (and BC cover) and something closer to a blowout. In the last meeting at Fenway Park the Irish averaged 6.21 YPP against the nation’s No. 2 S&P+ defense (ony Clemson performed better in this metric against BC) and if not for several turnovers that game would’ve been a 30-point victory.

This Notre Dame offense is reeling a little bit from the knock out blow delivered by Georgia and may not be as sharp in the passing game as the 2015 version. We may also see a far less dangerous BC defense on the other side of the line all the same.

My cold take is that this will be the worst offense Notre Dame faces in 2017.

Redshirt freshman quarterback Anthony Brown is really, really raw. The Eagles are using this multiple offense that has Brown under center with a fullback one snap and then in shotgun with 4-wide the next. They also employ these super long play-action passes from under center that are seriously stressing Brown’s footwork. With poor protection he rarely has time to throw or get through more than one read.

We’ve rarely been able to say this in the past but this should be an easy day for Notre Dame’s defense.

  • WINNER: Notre Dame 34 Boston College 6
  • VS. SPREAD (-13.5): Notre Dame
  • OVER/UNDER (51.0): Under
  • SPECIAL, WIMBUSH PASS YDS (245): Over