Notre Dame had started putting together another winning streak against Navy (5 straight) before messing things up and losing in Jacksonville (man, Florida hasn’t been kind to us) last year. By the way, how bad was 2016 that the loss to Navy was probably only the 3rd most outrageous defeat of the season? Perhaps I’m blacking out far too much of that loss but I remember so little about it outside of Navy’s game-clinching 14-play drive that lasted 7:28 with the Middies kneeling on the ball for the win.

Navy (+18) at Notre Dame

Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, November 18, 2017
Time: 3:30 PM ET
Television: NBC
Series: 76-13-1

Navy enters the late stages of Coach Ken’s 10th season in Annapolis (he’s never leaving, right?) struggling a little but coming off an important last-second win over SMU. Still, the Middies face a tough finish to the season with the Irish preceding a road trip to Houston and then the annual rivalry game against a surging Army team that has won 6 straight and might be favored in Philadelphia.

Navy comes into the weekend 63rd in S&P+ which isn’t too out of the ordinary for them. Still, they’re out of the picture in the AAC and might finish with 6 losses, something they haven’t done since 2011 and would be the 2nd most of the Coach Ken era.

3 Matchups to Watch

QB Mind Games

The Middies turned to Zach Abey late last year and continued with him heading into 2017, too. Then they literally ran him into the ground before a shoulder injury forced him to miss last week’s game against SMU. Abey is still 3rd nationally in total rushing attempts despite playing in only 8 games and leads the carries/game stats by almost 4 carries.

Navy was all set to put in Garrett Lewis last week until a last minute switch to slotback Malcom Perry was made by the OC. That switch paid off handsomely as Perry slashed through SMU for 282 yards on 33(!!) carries. However, he couldn’t finish the game due to a sprained ankle and is doubtful this weekend.

The word out of Annapolis was that Abey had become too reliant on grinding it out in between the tackles while the insertion of Perry opened up the offense on the edges to the tune of 559 rushing yards. It’s probably likely that Abey comes back in to start–and although Navy has talked about playing multiple quarterbacks–it’s not something they’ve ever done in the past.

Carmona Getting Behind the Irish Defense

Navy threw for 128 yards per game last year which was a significant increase from their normal averages. This year they’re back to almost 99 yards per game, and clearly missing sneaky good receiver Jamir Tillman (40 catches in 2016!) and a little more explosiveness.

This weekend’s Rockne Heritage uniform.

Abey hasn’t proven himself to be a very good passer even by Navy standards and the double whammy about Perry being out is that they’re missing their top slotback and second best receiver. However, senior Tyler Carmona has put up a gaudy 333 yards on just 12 catches this season. You have to keep that nearly 28 YPC in front of you at all times.

Navy’s Sack (In)Ability vs. Wimbush Calmness

Wimbush was sacked 5 times last week, lost a fumble, and generally wasn’t allowed to find much comfort in the pocket against Miami. Things should flip this weekend as the Middies have only registered 12 sacks in 9 games, tied for 117th nationally and by far the worst among Notre Dame’s opponents.

2 Stats to Consider

39-0-0

I say this every year: Notre Dame is undefeated against Navy when scoring 30 or more points in regulation. The Middies 3 losses this year have come when they’ve scored fewer than 30 points and that extends to 5 out of their last 6 losses stretching back to 2016.

47.6% Third Down Conversions

Miami had an atrocious third down conversion rate headed into last weekend and let’s be honest the game was never close enough for that to be a factor. This week Navy comes in with the 8th best conversion rate on third down. As always, Navy is apt to go for it on 4th down and have done so just over twice per game, converting 61.9% of their attempts.

1 Prediction

Did you know Navy has played one Power 5 team not named Notre Dame over their last 44 games? That game was against Pitt in their bowl game to conclude the 2015 season (Navy won 44-28). Since joining the AAC the average game for the Middies has increased in difficulty but they’ve basically stopped scheduling Power 5 teams and that makes it a little tougher to diagnose their team against bigger/stronger/faster programs.

Navy had a lot of snaps returning on defense this year and looking at their stats they seem fine. They’ve played some good offenses in FAU, Memphis, UCF, and SMU and averaged 30 points allowed–nothing too crazy. S&P straight up hates their defense (107th nationally) and thinks it’s the worst on Notre Dame’s schedule, though.

They weren’t bringing back a lot of players on offense and quarterback Abey is either not quite 100% healthy and/or has kind of plateaued as a signal-caller who is nothing more than solid. Not being able to have Malcolm Perry in the lineup could be a huge blow to the offense.

This seems like a really bad combination of factors for Navy. This game had some let down capabilities looking at the schedule months ago. Now, coming off a terrible loss in Miami Gardens it’s the exact opposite of a let down game. It’s a home game on Senior Day and I think we’ll see an impressive performance from the Irish.