Using the S&P+ rankings the Miami Hurricanes were the second best team Notre Dame played last year. Even though the Irish went 4-8 they were able to beat the ‘Canes in South Bend. Now, the Irish will play at Miami’s home stadium for the first time since the infamous 1989 game. It’ll also be the first visit, second overall, to Joe Robbie Stadium turned Pro Player Park turned Pro Player Stadium turned Dolphins Stadium turned Dolphin Stadium turned Land Shark Stadium turned Sun Life Stadium now called Hard Rock Stadium.
The last visit didn’t go so well.
Miami
2016 Record: 9-4
2016 S&P Rank: 14
Offense Returning Production Rank: 114
Defense Returning Production Rank: 101
Can They Re-Load?
Mark Richt’s first season back at his alma mater was a success in most areas. They did lose 4 in a row in the middle of the season but after the Notre Dame defeat they’d win their last 5 games, including a drubbing of West Virginia in the bowl game. Off-season momentum!
What’s more, the Canes were +205 in point differential and +1.68 yards per play both really, really healthy signs for a program. Additionally, they sent 8 players in the NFL Draft their most since tying that mark in 2011.
However, with such large turnover comes many questions. Quarterback Brad Kaaya is gone, running back Joe Yearby left early to not get drafted, plus receiver Stacy Coley and tight end David Njoku leave behind a combined 106 receptions from a year ago. The front seven remains largely in tact however the secondary–where Bill Connelly’s returning production weighs extremely heavily–needs to be rebuilt so much so that a JUCO and Citadel transfer are coming this off-season to start for starting positions.
Bye Brad
The career of Brad Kaaya started strong but never progressed very much over his freshman ceiling. In fact, his stats in each of his 3 years in Coral Gables were eerily similar. Still, he leaves behind just under 10,000 yards passing and 69 touchdowns passes to just 24 interceptions.
He was never great–being picked in the 6th round by Detroit this spring–but was always a solid college quarterback. The competitors for the starting job this year for Miami are as follows:
Malik Rosier, Redshirt Junior – Low 3-star recruit who has thrown 61 passes in spot duty over the last two years.
Evan Shirreffs, Redshirt Sophomore – Even lower 3-star than Rosier and hasn’t thrown a pass yet.
N’Kosi Perry, Freshman – This 4-star enrolled in May and has pretty good athleticism.
The Canes did have rising redshirt freshman Jack Allison on the roster but he was banged up all spring and decided to transfer to West Virginia after not gaining any ground on Rosier and Shirreffs. The word out of Miami seems to be that Perry has as good of a shot as anyone to win the job which speaks enough about the other two who competed during the spring.
Havoc!
With so many new bodies coming in to the secondary the havoc up front is going to be an even bigger focus. Last year, Miami was very good making plays behind the line of scrimmage with 108 tackles for loss (8th nationally) and the No. 4 havoc rate from the defensive line according to the S&P+ rankings.
The line is deep and talented as four players (Joe Jackson, Chad Thomas, Kendrick Norton, RJ McIntosh) all totaled at least 9.5 tackles for loss apiece. Another three players registered at least 4.5 tackles for loss apiece, too.
They may not need them but a couple more 4-star defensive ends are coming in as freshmen.
Summer Spread: Miami Favored by 3.5 Points
The Canes have been hovering around 8.5 to 9.0 wins by Vegas for their over/under predictions and in most pre-season magazines they’re coming in near the No. 20 spot. With the Irish traveling down to Florida they should be a decent-sized underdog during the summer.
Buy or Sell: Life without Kaaya
Miami was the 34th ranked S&P+ offense last year and they’re staring at a really troubling situation at quarterback. I will sell their immediate future without Kaaya. It seems the media has fallen a little bit in love with Richt’s first season back in Coral Gables combined with the 13th ranked recruiting class coming in to continue all this momentum.
They also won a bunch of games to end the season which always artificially inflates pre-season expectations. I think there’s a decent chance Miami offense drops 30 spots in the S&P+ rankings.
Know a Player: WR Ahmmon Richards
From just up north the Florida coast in West Palm Beach this rising sophomore accumulated 934 receiving yards on just 49 receptions last year. The 19.06 receiving average was 4th best in the ACC last year. The Canes are also welcoming high 4-star slot receiver Jeff Thomas who is their top recruit for 2017 and should play right away.
Outfitter: Adidas
The unthinkable happened a couple years ago. After being one of the pioneering Nike football schools Miami signed a 12-year deal with Adidas in 2015 with a hefty raise from the Three Stripes. The results early on were very mixed to be kind although Adidas did introduce a set of throwbacks that were very well received.
Most Important Game: at Florida State
If you’re going to buy stock in Miami their schedule doesn’t look too daunting. Three out of their first four include Bethune-Cookman, Arkansas State, and Toledo. They also miss Clemson and Louisville which is huge. However, the Canes face Florida State in week 4 which is going to be a huge test to see if they can sink or swim in the ACC, or perhaps on the national stage.
Agree that Miami feels like a decent bust candidate – the preseason love comes from an awesome front seven, but secondary, QB, and O-Line could be all be Achilles heels. The Canes were bad running and run blocking last year, so that either has to improve dramatically or the QB competition winner needs to be able to step in and be competent right away.
If I had to make a prediction, I think the defense will be very good – Diaz is a hyper aggressive DC that knows how to use a talented DL/LB corp so that the back-end concerns won’t matter as much – but the offense will struggle. Really wish we were playing them early in the year, because they might have found the answer at QB and more OL consistency by the time we fly south to play them in November.
So they’re like a rich man’s version of Boston College.
Losing Kaaya will hurt them for sure, but for ND, I think the biggest plus will be Njoku leaving. He only had 4 catches last year, but he was open a ton, drew a bunch of our attention, and nobody matches up particularly well with a guy like that. I certainly wouldn’t be excited about the prospects of any one player on our defense trying to cover him.