For the second straight season Notre Dame will be facing a ranked USC team. You have to go back to the 2009 season during Pete Carroll’s final season in Los Angeles for the last time a ranked Trojan team came to South Bend. That was also the last time both teams in the series came into the game ranked in the AP Poll and also a sneaky fun game at the time despite the Irish loss.
USC (+3.5) at Notre Dame
Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, October 21, 2017
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Television: NBC
Series: 46-37-5 Notre Dame
When both teams come in ranked the series is pretty even although at 16-14-2 just slightly in Notre Dame’s favor. The bad news if you’re into the whole history thing is that USC has won the last 4 such games (2009, 2006, 2005, 2002) and it’s been since the 1995 matchup for a Notre Dame win under such conditions.
3 Matchups to Watch
USC’s Steady Rushing vs. Notre Dame’s Front Seven
Ronald Jones was one of the recruiting misses that still stings and he’s having a successful junior campaign so far with 640 yards at 6.2 per rush. The Trojans primary backup–5 star freshman Stephen Carr–was playing well until injuring his foot, and while his boot came off this week, he’s unable to put on the pads this Saturday.
The USC ground game isn’t super strong averaging 128 fewer yards per game than Notre Dame. What they have done is total 43 runs of at least 10 yards which is tied for 25th nationally. The Irish defense has played quite well but have allowed 26 such runs (t-39th) so it’s a bit of a weakness.
Sam Darnold Turnovers vs. Notre Dame’s Secondary
This one is really easy. Sam Darnold has thrown a Pac-12 worst 9 interceptions this season. As a team, the Trojans have fumbled 11 times and lost 7 of them.
USC has been averaging over 2 turnovers per game and the Irish have been creating over 2 turnovers per game. Let’s hope that math works out in Notre Dame’s favor.
Irish Ground Game Staying on Schedule
We can expect USC to crowd the line of scrimmage and be on a mission to shut down the Irish ground game. For as great as the Notre Dame rushing attack has been they still aren’t running the ball a ton (just over 61% overall still a Kelly-era high) nor being amazingly awesome at grinding out yards.
The advanced stats kind of like the Irish a lot this weekend. But Mr. Darnold lingers. https://t.co/Qt11beF2O6
— 18 Stripes (@18stripes) October 19, 2017
It may work out that the Irish run game remains super explosive and there’s a game-breaking Josh Adams touchdown run. If not, this is a massive game to test all of your uncle’s favorite adjectives to describe a great rushing attack.
2 Stats to Consider
46.8% Third Down Conversions
In the big picture it’s been a disappointing year for Sam Darnold relative to expectations but he’s been a crazy alien freak on third downs. On third and short plus third and medium he’s 16 of 22 for 217 yards and 14 throws that moved the chains. Overall, the Trojans are converting 46.8% of their 3rd downs good for 18th nationally and 2nd best in the Pac-12 conference.
38 Pass Break-Ups
As per usual, Southern Cal is loaded with talent in their defensive secondary. They are also really active breaking up the second-most passes nationally (38) in addition to picking off 10 passes, although with the last stat a couple have come from linebackers.
In a game where turnovers could be a major advantage for Notre Dame making sure Wimbush doesn’t toss a couple interceptions or lose fumbles has to be higher priority than usual.
1 Prediction
It’s a little easier to say now with hindsight but a No. 4 pre-season ranking in the AP Poll for USC was likely a touch or two too high. The Trojans lost a lot of talent from their Rose Bowl-winning 2016 team, didn’t have great situations on their lines coming into the fall, and the reality is that your average college football fan wouldn’t know anyone on this Trojans team outside of Sam Darnold.
Now, the situations on their lines are a bit troubling. The offensive line lost right guard Via Talamaivao but otherwise they are fine up front. Nothing special but solid overall.
The defensive line isn’t getting better anytime soon. Pass rushing specialist Porter Gustin (13.5 career sacks) is dealing with bicep injuries and is out for Saturday. On the interior, the always-injured Kenny Bigelow retired, backup freshman Marlon Tuipulota is out for the year with a back injury, and now starter Josh Fatu is out following a concussion from a car accident suffered earlier this week.
One big takeaway from Michael’s advanced stats preview was that USC is good at taking the ball away and limiting efficiency, especially in passing, while being average to mediocre everywhere else. Keeping things smart and easy for Wimbush while finding a way to become a little more efficient on the ground game is the recipe for success for Notre Dame.
I’ve found myself in a weird place this week. On one hand the bye week brought a nice little break and plenty of rest from the grind of college football. I also felt confident Notre Dame was going to win this game and for whatever reason wasn’t too excited to dig into this preview.
However, we know how perilous this season could be and holy crap here’s a chance for a big ass win! I get the sense many people don’t think this is a great USC team, which is fair, but all things being equal they will still have a good shot at capturing the Pac-12 and winning 10 games.
The one big negative for me is that good USC quarterback + good USC team equals loss for Notre Dame, at least in recent history. Here’s the matchups for Kelly since he came to Notre Dame in 2010.
WINS
2010 (8-5) Mustain – 37 passes, 177 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
2012 (7-6) Wittek – 23 passes, 186 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
2013 (10-3) Kessler – 34 passes, 201 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
2015 (8-6) Kessler – 47 passes, 440 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT
LOSSES
2011 (10-2) Barkley – 35 passes, 224 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT
2014 (9-4) Kessler – 40 passes, 372 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT
2016 (10-4) Darnold – 29 passes, 205 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT
I want to avoid too many causation and correlation talk but generally if the Trojans get poor quarterback play they aren’t winning. The lone exception was 2015 which was a very high scoring game.
With Darnold at the helm I’m certain this will be a high scoring game similar to 2015. I do think Elko’s defense will be humbled a little bit, although it’s pretty cool that they haven’t given up more than 20 points yet this season. Keeping that up for a whole season was unrealistic and super unlikely to happen against the Trojans.
Coming off a bye week, while being the far healthier team, while being favored, while playing at home at night…it’s time to beat a good USC team with a good quarterback. I’m going to get a little crazy and predict a solid Irish victory.
- WINNER: Notre Dame 44 USC 31
- VS. SPREAD (-3.5): Notre Dame
- OVER/UNDER (65.5): Over
- SPECIAL, WIMBUSH PASS ATTEMPS (26.5): Under
The advanced stats seem to like ND here and they don’t even factor in things like the bye week, or USC pretty brutal schedule or recent attrition. After the Georgia game, I told myself I would need to see ND prove it to make me a believer. But I’m drinking the kool-aid, I’m predicting a double digit win
Also a note above but in the wins and comments you referenced the high scoring winin2014. I presume you meant 2015 in south bend when fuller smoked adoree for the td. Feel like that team left a chance for a USC blowout out there
Yes, corrected.
“I want to avoid too many causation and correlation talk but generally if the Trojans get poor quarterback play they aren’t winning. The lone exception was 2014 which was a very high scoring game.”
Is it corrected and I’m just reading it wrong? USC got good QB play in 2015 yet still lost, not 2014 – though they did get good QB play but won, right?
I really hope Wimbush throws well under 26 passes. For a number of reasons. I would love it if he stays under 20.
Yes, 20 passes for 400 yards and 4 TDs with no picks. I’ll take it. But only if he also rushes for 100 yards and 1 TD.
Reverse jinxing Wimbush going under 20 because of injury
As per usual when playing USC, I worry about the Trojans’ receivers against our secondary. In my opinion, that’s why ball control to keep USC’s offense off the field will be crucial for the Irish in this game. What gives me hope is that USC is allowing an average of 146.7 rushing yards per game as well as 4.1 yards per carry. Given the injuries along the Trojans’ defensive line — as well as Porter Gustin being ruled out due to injury — I really like our offensive line’s chances of controlling the line of scrimmage and ultimately the game. As I said in a comment on the preview of the second half of the season, I see the Irish walking away with a 10 to 14 point win.
While this has the ring of Famous Last Words, I actually think we match up pretty okay with their receivers, all things considered. Their star is Burnett, who is super shifty and good, but he’s small – meaning that Shaun Crawford ought to be a pretty okay matchup for him from our perspective. They have some talented big guys on the outside, but none of them have consistently put it together for multiple games in a row (in part because of injuries). But, I would not be as worried regarding the wide receivers being much better than the CBs as I will for, say, Miami (Ahmmon Richards, if healthy, is probably going to be open all day against Nick Watkins).
That said, USC probably does have the best combination of QB and WRs we’ll face, so, yeah, hold me I’m Irish.
Now that I’ve thought about it some more, I remembered that our defense — for the most part — was able to hold Georgia’s Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, D’Andre Swift and Mecole Hardman in check. I feel confident saying those are the best skill position players we will see all season. Thus, there’s no reason to think USC’s skill position talent poses as large a threat as the aforementioned ‘Dawgs.
I agree with that in theory, but Darnold is much better in the passing game and getting his receivers the ball than Jake from SF
Debbie Downer here – I agree with Eric’s thoughts that USC is dangerous with a talented quarterback. I really want ND to pull this one out, but I’m preparing myself for a close loss.
It’s a lonely world over there. You dont even have many SC fans on your side of the prediction
Yeah, even nd09 is being cautiously optimistic.
S&P% gives us a 63% chance to win, so it’s certainly not overwhelming. And they definitely have a good bit of skill talent, I would say distinctly more than we do on both sides of the ball. But I think the biggest mismatch of the game is our offensive line vs. their defensive line (well, maybe other than Darnold’s passing vs. Wimbush’s passing). As they say, we gotta pound it.
Agreed. I too am wary of their skill position talent – or, more accurately, Darnold and Jones. But what I keep coming back to is the nation’s #5 rushing offense and #1 S&P+ rushing offense going against the nation’s #61 rushing defense and #34 S&P+ rushing defense. And they’re down two DTs since those stats last included new data.
Their front is most definitely not Georgia’s front. We should be able to run at will on them; if we do, I don’t see how they can win the game absent some weirdness. I know that sounds a bit bold, but really, if we can run as well as I think we can Darnold will have to be near perfect for them to overcome it. That’s a really high bar for anyone, even the presumptive #1 draft pick.
Interesting take. If anything I’m nervous they’re going to run that slow developing read-option and the SC LB’s (who aren’t bad) will be like UGA and crash down and put ND in a big bind. Then the playcalling devolves into ineffectiveness. I actually hope they come out passing a little, hopefully script some comfortable passes for Wimbush and then have it roll from there.
But I def agree, best case, obviously, is the run game is effective early.
Our biggest problem against Georgia was that the DL were winning one-on-one battles with our OL, often dramatically, so the zone blocking Adams was waiting for never got going and the linebackers could fill with ease. USC’s DL is nowhere near Georgia’s. Forget zip code, they’re not even in the same state.
Their linebackers are better than their DL, but they still don’t match Lorenzo Carter and Natrez Patrick. They might be able to stop us – I doubt it, but they might – but if they do, it won’t be the same way Georgia did.
Also – I’ve watched a few SC games this year to keep tabs on them. I think both lines have a soft mentality and will fold like a cheap lawn chair if adversity presents itself. So come out and smack them early and then keep the pressure on.
STONE.
USC and UGA’s DLs aren’t just not in the same state, they aren’t in the same area code. They are roughly 2,247 miles apart.
This had so much potential but there are multiple area codes per state
You thought they were just 770 and 404, but they’re worldwide, act like y’all don’t know
sheeeeeit. meant time zone. and great luda quote
Does anyone else think we would have a shot at hosting College GameDay for the North Carolina State game if we were to win this game? The only other competition is Penn State at Ohio State. I think we’d win out because it would be the third time this season the Buckeyes would have been a featured team, the second time the show would have been to Columbus and second week in a row featuring Penn State.
I think exceedingly likely, actually. Penn State-Ohio State would be the “bigger” game in terms of team rankings, but that one is going to be on Fox, so ESPN has no reason to push that over the NBC game. Plus they are at Penn State this weekend. I doubt the “big game” differential would outweigh the same-team-2-weeks-straight thing+going back to Cbus+not having been in SB in 5 years.
West Virginia vs. Okla. St. could also be a possibility. I think ND v. NCSt would be considered the bigger game and is slightly more probable as a choice, but ESPN certainly would consider strongly representing one of their own broadcasts of a ranked v. ranked.
Welp, looks like Penn St and Ohio St. Can’t really say I’m shocked, #2 vs. #6 is always going to get pull.
As I’ve said on other threads recently, I just can’t feel confident against a USC team that isn’t objectively crappy. I have total PTSD from the 31-point drubbings against Ty’s teams, as well as the times recently when we’ve had a pretty evenly matched teams on paper and they run us out of the stadium (2011, 2014) I hope for a win, but I can’t believe in a win until I see it.
I don’t know that we were really evenly matched in 2014 – that was the injury-palooza year that led to Jacob Matuska and Greer Martini getting snaps at DT in that game. We were toast no matter how hard those guys played. Sort of sounds similar to… hmm… oh yes, SC’s DT situation coming into this game.
Hey, I understand the PTSD. I do. I watched all those games too. We’ll keep a spot on the bandwagon open for you for whenever you’re ready to jump on.
A favorite analogy on TOS is Lucy pulling away the football. It has happened so often to all of us on here that we have a good start to a season and expect good things in a bigtime matchup, only to end up lying on our backs with those tweetie birds floating over our heads. I’m a doubting Thomas this year, in the sense that I want very much to believe, but just can’t quite until I see the evidence. If we win this game, I may start to get over my PTSD and jump on the train.
I hear you man. Wasn’t that long ago that we sat at 5-1 with a razor-thin loss to a top three team, wondering if the “best loss” would be enough to get us into the playoff. And then…
We were talking about this behind the acenses yesterday. CW and I are both kind of manic right now – we’re alternating between feeling we’re going to win, we’re going to crush them, and we’re going to lose in excruciating fashion. PunterBro, as usual, thinks we’re going to win 73-0.
I feel pretty good about this game. Our run game should dominate. If our d-line can get real pressure, our secondary should adequate. The fact that this is a huge recruiting weekend scares the shit out of me though. How many of these situations have we seen go horribly wrong?
We have not faced a QB, RB, Receiver combination yet this year anywhere near as strong as these guys, plus we’re short at linebacker so I’m not optimistic about holding SC’s scoring down. We’re going to have to put points up, so in my mind it all boils down toWimbush’s performance.
I hate SC, but I’m not confident.
Show me. Yes, we’ve done well against bad teams. Done what we should. Show me against a good team. It’s all there. The stats say we’re better. Show me. We don’t beat good teams. We’ve got enough questions (passing game, secondary). I want to believe this is different. Show me.
I’m right there with you, KG
My hope: a Notre Dame blowout. Dang it, ND hasn’t beat the snot out of USC since what 1995? And there’s been so many just crushing USC blowouts of Notre Dame. In my memory, this is probably the most favorable matchup I recall for ND. A talent advantage, their strengths versus USC’s weaknesses, injuries.
I expect it to be a close game. But nothing would make me happier than seeing ND hand USC their first 30+ point butt-kicking since I was 12 years old.
There was a veritable plethora of blown snot. Good call.
I am so glad your hopes materialized. Yes I am. As I hope to say on another thread… this one was worth flying in from Paris for!!!!!!!!!!!!