The Fighting Irish head to Palo Alto this Saturday with much on the line. Before we get into the deep stuff below, on the surface Notre Dame has lost its last 4 trips to Stanford which sucks really bad. The last time the Irish beat Stanford on the road the first edition of the iPhone had just debuted months earlier, Charlie Weis would coach 2 more years in South Bend, and The Wire was about to finish up its last season.
It’s been a while.
Notre Dame (-2.5) at Stanford
Stanford Stadium
Palo Alto, California
Date: Saturday, November 25, 2017
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Television: ABC
Series: 19-12-0 Notre Dame
Stanford comes into the weekend laying in the weeds, so to speak. With a game in hand they currently lead the Pac-12 North division and have clinched at least a share of the division for the 5th time in 7 years. Their fate is out of their hands as they await the winner of the Apple Cup which kicks off at the same time on Fox. Stanford needs Washington to win in order to meet USC in the Pac-12 Championship.
So, this game with Notre Dame is kind of meaningless for the Cardinal!
3 Matchups to Watch
Combating Stanford’s Offensive Line
The Cardinal line has been mixing and matching at a lot of positions this year with the exception of center where redshirt junior Jesse Burkett has been a rock. They’re not anything spectacular but have allowed just 12 sacks which is tied for 3rd best among Power 5 programs. They’re also not throwing the ball that much, although there’s been an uptick from last year.
A key for the Irish will be to try and get as many negative plays as possible and hold their breath that they can withstand the big rushing plays from Bryce Love.
Doing Something Through the Air
Stanford held Rice, ASU, Oregon, Oregon State, and Washington to 17 or fewer completions while causing at least one interception in each game except for the latter against the Huskies. However, they’ve also let USC have their way (316 yards, 4 TD) while UCLA (40 completions, 480 yards) and Washington State (34 completions, 337 yards) all had big days through the air.
Wimbush has a big task ahead of him of either being super efficient (highly unlikely given his resume) and able to protect the ball (decent chance) or putting up a career day through the air.
Stop Love’s Long Runs
Bryce Love is pretty much guaranteed a spot in New York City as a Heisman finalist. He leads the Pac-12 in rushing yards and leads the country in yards per game. He’s also the national leader in yards per carry from a running back with at least 100 carries.
He’s also severely banged up and might not be the same player he was earlier in the year when he rushed for at least 147 yards in every game. Love sat out the Oregon State game with an ankle injury and re-injured the ankle last week late against California. He’s officially listed as probable.
2 Stats to Consider
38-6 at Stanford Stadium
It doesn’t get much national attention but David Shaw has built quite a fortress around the usually sleepy haven that is Stanford Stadium while going 38-6 at home in his tenure. If they can beat the Fighting Irish on Saturday night it would complete the 3rd season over the last 6 campaigns in which the Cardinal went unbeaten in Palo Alto. Their 6 losses include:
2016, Washingon State, 42-16
2016, Colorado, 10-5
2015, Oregon, 38-36
2014, USC, 13-10
2014, Utah, 20-17
2011, Oregon, 53-30
+0.90 YPP
Out of the currently ranked teams in the College Football Poll there are 9 teams averaging fewer than 1 yard per play differential: USC, Washington State, Mississippi State, Michigan State, Memphis, Northwestern, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and…Stanford.
The Irish have already beaten 2 of those teams and would feel pretty good about their chances against the rest in that group. As far as Stanford is concerned, they do have the 2nd highest YPP (+0.90) out of the group behind USC.
1 Prediction
If you’re a Stanford fan you have to be awfully worried about the status of Bryce Love and even if he suits up just how healthy and effective he’ll be against the Irish. Since sitting out the Oregon State game he’s ripped off runs of 52 and 57 yards but has averaged just 3.91 yards over his other 58 carries.
Perhaps more alarming, Love has only been successful on 24 out of his 60 carries since coming back from injury, including 5 of 14 last week against the Cal Bears.
If Love can’t provide a successful night running or rip off a couple long runs Stanford could be in big trouble. Their YPP defense is thoroughly mediocre (5.75, 75th nationally, only Navy is worse among ND opponents) and their passing game isn’t much better than Notre Dame’s which is saying something.
But, here’s the thing about Stanford. They’ve often defied the odds in many ways, for example, they were a super pedestrian +0.42 in YPP differential and +77 in point differential last year and still won 10 games. Take similar stats for any modern Notre Dame team and they probably averaged 5 to 6 losses that season.
So, Stanford’s home record, home winning streak against Notre Dame, and the general struggles of Brian Kelly teams to win road games against ranked teams has me awfully worried.
This also is setting up to be such a ridiculously annoying Stanford win. As mentioned, this game really doesn’t do much for them as their bowl prospects are largely tied to winning the Pac-12. The Cardinal can lose Saturday and technically still win 10 games.
Don’t even get me started on Bryce Love not even playing and Stanford still winning. It’d be peak Stanford vs. Notre Dame rivalry. Which, by the way kind of happened last year as Christian McCaffrey sat out with injury and the Irish still couldn’t beat Stanford’s ineffective offense.
No, this is an absolutely massive game for Notre Dame. As much as the Miami game changed the calculus of the season the fact remains the Irish are still in position to finish in the Top 5 for only the second time since 1993 and of course the major bowl drought since the same amount of time could fall as well.
We’re within days away from a non-championship great regular season and a month of football happiness leading up to maybe the premier non-playoff bowl game!
It’s not okay to lose this game. I wouldn’t go so far as to say this season is a failure with a loss in Palo Alto but the difference between 9-3 and 10-2 is crystal clear. The former just doesn’t move the needle and no one will care about playing in the Belk Bowl, or wherever the Irish would fall in the post-season.
You may notice above in Stanford’s recent home losses they are either blown out or losing extremely tight games. All week I’ve been fighting a prediction of a big Notre Dame win versus a close Stanford win. That damaged, battered, and scared Irish fan in me is waiting for that gut-punch loss but my brain keeps saying if Wimbush plays half-decently this could be a satisfying 18-point win. With little confidence, I’ll throw a dart somewhere in the middle with Notre Dame winning a very tight, defensive battle.
- WINNER: Notre Dame 19 Stanford 17
- VS. SPREAD (-2.5): Stanford
- OVER/UNDER (57): Under
- SPECIAL, LOVE CARRIES (17.5): Under
My cardiovascular system could really use a laugher, and my emotional status could really use an ND win.
Please, pretty please?
Every time I’ve been nervous before a game this year, the Irish have won big (except Georgia). Any time I have any confidence, they play a nail-biter (or get blown out).
History tells me the Irish will absolutely lose this game, so I’m nervous. Let’s hope they can return to USC/NC State form.
I need a major pick-me-up. I pray the Irish do it for me. 31-24 over the Tree
Condolences…
I’m worried about this one too…Stanford doesn’t have too much motivation in this game and surely will be scoreboard watching the Apple Cup game going on — but one motivation they do have is Bryce Love. His Heisman finalist ticket is punched as mentioned, but this game he’s on national TV, primetime on the East coast and against *Notre Dame*. If he has a 150+ yard night a few touchdowns that could up his overall candidacy for sure. I see them feeding him until he can’t continue, much like that last week.
Which Wimbush will show up? Hopefully they can build off the 2nd half of Navy where it looked like he was building some confidence and rhythm, especially with Stepherson. I feel like the playcalling on the 1st drive is big for the rest of the game, if they move the ball and Wimbush can get gain a base, it’s usually a good day. If he can’t, it’s usually a bad offensive one.
Wouldn’t mind seeing a little manball and less slow developing read option and more offensive line trying to push Stanford, wear them down and control clock.
Between the basketball game Wednesday and your article today, I’ve been thinking does ND have many wins under Kelly where it feels they stole a win? They definitely have some scenarios where they lost as the team that played better (Tulsa, USF/Michigan, pitt 2013, pretty much half of 2016) but I can’t think of many where they stole a win:
Michigan State 2013?
I know SP does a win probability but I would have no idea how to access that from one tams perspective over a number of years
HI all from Palo Alto – just flew in from Paris for this one. Was eagerly looking for Eric’s review, and lo and behold, he echoed my anxieties suffered during 15 hours of flight (had to connect through Newark):
“Stanford’s home record, home winning streak against Notre Dame, and the general struggles of Brian Kelly teams to win road games against ranked teams has me awfully worried.”
Ouch! And the fact that it is such a huge game for us just makes it all worse.
It didn’t used to be this way. My in-laws owned a home about three blocks from Stanford Stadium so I have been making most of the games here since we restarted the series under Lou Holtz. I mean, we used to blow out these sleepy damn ridiculous Cardinal fans by 25 points. So we need to get back to that. I am with you Hooks, try the man ball, with some vintage good running Brandon in the mix. I think that is what helps unleash the good downfield pass Brandon.
Stay damn nervous, Irish Bandit, stay damn nervous.
More Noise – CleverScreenName here, and I need some advice on trying to watch ND games in Europe. I’m working in Scotland this week and next, and I’d really like to watch some college football this weekend. The ND game starts at 0100 local time, and I have to go to work around 0645 on Sunday morning, but I’d even settle for only getting to watch the Iron Bowl or one of the other games that takes place during more civilized hours in this area.
How do you watch the game if it’s not on broadcast TV or if the official streaming service (ABC app, NBCSports.com, etc.) blocks you for being not in America? Is there a reputable/dependable website or method for catching the game? Please e-mail any advice directly to me at [email protected]. Many thanks, and be sure to make plenty of noise on Saturday night.
GO IRISH! Beat international broadcast copyright regulations!!
ustvnow is good, and dependable. For US military, and expats; they do not run you through an ID drill.
Will email you same info, put it here for any others.
Count on me for the noise!!’
Can I text you or are you worried about roaming? Do you have a VPN you can use?
Yes, you can text me no problem. I don’t knowingly have a VPN to use, but I wouldn’t know what to do with it if I had one.
More Noise, you are the man!! ustvnow.com worked really well last night for the end of the Arkansas – Missouri game. I’m pumped for some AMERICAN GRIDIRON FOOTBALL tonight!
(Full disclosure: I might upgrade from the free access to the mid-grade so that I can record the ND game and watch it after work on Sunday after I get off of work. Y’all are okay not talking about who wins until after I’ve had a chance to watch, right? Guys?? Right?!?)
Glad it worked, CSN!
I think a good start is extremely important. Especially for BW. I think we’ll see Wimbush running often. QB draws and runs if the 1st or 2nd pass option is covered. A few off read option too. 12-15 runs in the game. I wish Josh Adams was 100% even 95.
Losing 2 out of 3 with a close one vs. Navy would be a very disappointing end to the season. Now that we are at season’s end, 10-2 seems night and day better than 9-3.
I’m nervous as can be. If both teams were healthy, I’d be more confident. As it stands, it looks like we’re relying on Kelly to improve his top 25 road record.
However, there is one detail that gives me hope. You know how coaches give a game a little extra, like Saban vs. Ole Miss or A&M after he lost to them? I think this is that game for us, based on BK’s meltdown last year after the Stanford trainer taunted him. I hope BK reaches deep in his bag of tricks and… runs Wimbush. But seriously, I think Kelly knows how important this is. Let’s hope that’s enough to give us the edge.
Kelly has known how important each “big game” we play is…if it has helped, I haven’t noticed.
National Title game? Nah, we dont need to really put all our chips on the line in that one. We have another game we can showcase ourselves in
Also seems noteworthy to me Stanford is 5-0 at home, and 3-3 on the road this year.
Miami is about to lose to Pitt. How we crapped the bed against that team is really beyond me. The 2012 Tide they are not
They came out completely amped up. Got a big turnover and we missed a huge chance to take their crowd out of the game. If BW hits Boykin for that TD, the game is completely different, I think
Now I really want to win this Stanford game because, well, obviously, but also now so I can spike the football on the guy who said 1-loss Miami would be ranked behind 2-loss Notre Dame.
(I mean, I’d be happy to be wrong about that. But I wouldn’t be.)
Couldnt happen to a nicer team 🙂 🙂
I Hate Miami above all others. I hope Clemson blows them up.
I wonder what’s going to happen with our guys though? Which is the real Irish team–the one that was blowing everyone out, or the one that folded second half of WF and has looked like a meh team since then.
I have no idea as to the answer to that one.
Terrible, terrible, terrible, TERRIBLE game plan.
Big game for the hockey team tonight. Taking on #6 Minnesota at Compton.Who else is watching?
I’m watching the Texas-Texas Tech game. Tim Brando is to play-by-play what Doug Flutie is to color commentary. So, so terrible.
What one highlight moment is Brando bragging about all game?
19-17? Perfect. Sounds as ugly as a shirtless Brey (but ultimately just as satisfying?)
Here’s my hot take on Stanford’s home record. I think of it like ND’s home advantage, it’s simply the absence of a road disadvantage, the fans are not difference makers in Palo Alto or South Bend.
However, the teams in the Pac 12 North that have been good over the last few years (Washington, Wazzu and Oregon) all do have real home-field advantages. Stanford doesn’t so much get a boost from playing at home, as they do from avoiding the hostile crowds in Washington and Oregon.
A very insightful hot take, Monsieur Lacet (OK, French for shoelace),
Knowing both crowds as I do, you are 100% correct. Of course, the implication is that Stanford is basically a very good team. Much as I align myself with the non-fans of D Shaw, I have to admit it. So, it’s on us to beat a very good team. I’ll take any score to do it!
LMFTFY: “If you’re THE Stanford fan you have to be awfully worried about the status of Bryce Love”
Har har, very funny. As well all know, Stanford actually has tens and tens of fans.
We’re 10 places above Stanford in FEI and 19 above them in S&P. I will be so pissed if we lose. Like, if anything, more pissed than when we lost in 2015 (although I weep at what might have been in 2015 and 2016 with no BVG).
Going to sleep. I hope I can do the same tomorrow.
Good stuff E. I think their fortunes rest almost entirely on Love. If we can contain him, we’ll probably win. If we can contain him and Wimbush can play reasonably well, we’ll probably win big.
Who knows, though. I’ve thought all year based on numbers and performance against other teams that we should crush them, but I thought that about Miami too, as did just about every pundit who had never suited up for Miami. I’ll call a win, but I’ll leave it at that.
Nicely put Brendan.
I am not sure where to mention this, but I did like BK’s response to the question at the presser about the defense being leg-weary after the 80 snaps against Navy (not a trivial worry, btw), Especially the last line:
Q. And talking about smashmouth football, with Navy playing possession kind of ball and stuff like that, your defense was on the field an awful lot last week. How are they coming back leg-wise, and what kind of things might you be doing to try to alleviate the —
BRIAN KELLY: Yeah, they’ll have a couple of weeks off. They’re 18 to 21 years old. There’s some guys that are a little sore, but it’s all hands on deck. I mean, let’s go. You’ve got one game. Today is their last day of school. They’ve got a few days off. You know, rub some dirt on it.