It’s year two of the Kirby Smart era in Athens and the Georgia Bulldogs are in a weird place. They’ve gone 4 straight years without a divisional title in a really weak era of the SEC East and they’ve only had 1 really great season out of their past 8 campaigns.
Still, as always the Dawgs seem just one off-season away from regrouping and becoming a national power. Will 2017 be the year?
GEORGIA
2016 Record: 8-5
2016 S&P Rank: 68
Offense Returning Production Rank: 35
Defense Returning Production Rank: 5
High to Low
People are starting to freak out about Georgia’s 2018 recruiting class currently ranked 64th in the country with 3 commits, including a kicker and a couple of modest 3-stars. Things were a lot more chill this past February when Georgia quietly signed the 3rd best class in the nation, though.
The question for Notre Dame fans is who from this elite class could make an impact in game two of the season? The answer is probably not many. Quarterback Jake Fromm (No. 3 pro-style) enrolled early and impressed enough that he’s apparently secured the backup job and challenged rising sophomore Jacob Eason at least a little bit during the spring.
Thompson Coming Back
You can see above with the returning production why freshmen are unlikely to do much for Georgia in 2017. That’s especially true on defense where virtually everyone returns from last fall. There was only one senior among the Dawgs top 15 tacklers last year, and both of the senior defenders went undrafted a few weeks ago.
One cause for concern was the future of defensive tackle Trenton Thompson who left the football program (but remained enrolled) while dealing with some injury and personal issues. Smart recently updated that Thompson would be coming back to the team in June. The rising junior and former top recruit in the country was damn impressive last year with 56 tackles, 9.5 TFL, and 5 sacks.
Inside & Outside
Georgia’s offense sucked last year. They weren’t explosive (96th IsoPPP) nor efficient (82nd success rate). They couldn’t finish drives (120th points per trip inside 40) and couldn’t bread their butter in the run game (82nd S&P+ rushing attack & 113th power success rate).
The Dawgs don’t lack for talent which isn’t a great look for OC Jim Chaney who left Pittsburgh after 2015 with the Panthers getting immediately better in his wake.
Improvements on the offensive line and wide receiver have been the big off-season projects. Georgia returns all starters from last fall but has been rotated guys all spring and has only likely solidified 3 spots up front heading into August camp. Leading receiver Isaiah McKenzie (remember him?) was the only Dawg drafted and leaves a hole in the slot. The offense is desperately looking for size and playmaking at receiver to open up the passing game after Eason’s 6.6 yards-per-attempt was 2nd worse in the SEC last year.
Summer Spread: Georgia Favored by 2.5 Points
You could make the case to buy stock on the Irish winning this game. Georgia will be completely out of their comfort zone playing far north, their offense could still be a mess, and they open with a typically frisky Appalachian State the week prior.
However, when we’re looking at things strictly right now in the summer I’m sure Vegas would have the Dawgs as slight road favorites. Recently, the Sporting News put together a composite ranking of late spring pre-season rankings and Georgia finished 14th between Stanford and LSU. They were Top 20 in all 6 major news publication polls.
The Irish, coming off a 4-8 season, were nowhere to be found.
Buy or Sell: Georgia Winning the SEC East
I’m smelling a situation where we beat Georgia and they win the SEC East or they beat us and can’t win their division. Mostly everyone has Georgia as the pre-season leaders to take the divisional crown but Florida and Tennessee aren’t too far behind. I’ll buy Georgia winning it, they really probably should with a stout defense and potential on offense.
Know a Player: TE Isaac Nuata
This may be the only team all season to have a better tight end than Notre Dame. Nuata was the country’s top recruit at his position last year and insanely high #12 overall player for 2016, too. He didn’t catch a pass in Georgia’s first two games and went on to finish with 29 receptions, 361 yards, and 3 touchdowns. All three of those categories ranked third among all Dawgs pass catchers.
Outfitter: Nike
Georgia has been with Nike forever and their deal was set to expire this June prior to the school extending their contract with the Swoosh through June 2024. On an average annual payout Georgia isn’t getting top money, though. Their current deal is worth roughly $3.8 million per season, just 6th best in the SEC and outside the Top 20 nationally.
Most Important Game: Florida
I mean, right? Georgia has beaten Florida 6 times since 1997 which isn’t the greatest track record. But when they do, good things tend to happen. In 5 of those seasons the Dawgs went on to finish in the Top 10. They’ll get a bye week and a pretty decent run-up (at Vandy, Missouri) prior to the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
I wonder what kind of precedent there is for teams going from as low as 68th in S&P+ to high enough to be a legit team in a single offseason.
I’d like to research that. Someone must have done it before. I will search…
68th in S&P+ maybe something like Lou’s 5-6 in ’86 to #16 in ’87 opener?
I’ll let you know next January!
Well, we were 26th in S&P+ last year, so if we become a “legit team” in 2017 it still won’t answer your question. I’ve seen 68th quoted all over the place, not really sure where it comes from.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa
To flesh this out a bit… As noted, according to S&P+, we were 26th overall; breaking that down, we were 35th in offense, 28th defense (making a huge jump after BVG was canned, due partly to that and partly to Army and the hurricane game), and 80th in special teams.
Switching to FEI, we were 42nd overall, 38th in offense, 63rd in defense, and 81st in special teams. It’s not that surprising that FEI didn’t like us quite as much, since it measures drive success while S&P measures play success. And while we would make some good plays on defense, we were really bad at killing drives.
Anyway, again, I’m not sure where the 68th ranking is coming from. Not picking on you, I’ve seen a bunch of people mention that, so I think it’s just one of those things that got legs. We certainly may have been as low as 68th at some point last year (the nadir was probably lower, honestly), but we were much higher in the end-of-year rankings. And lest anyone suffer some confusion on this point, let me emphasize that I’m not saying that means last year wasn’t a turd sandwich. It was. What it does mean, though, is that the jump we have to take to be “legit” this year might not be as big as it seems.
He might be referring to Georgia’s ranking according to the article:
GEORGIA
2016 Record: 8-5
2016 S&P Rank: 68
The important question: is this game going to break ESPN’s streak of not coming to campus at South Bend? I believe they haven’t been there since 2005 USC (seemingly a combo of us playing almost all of our biggest regular games on the road since then and combined with ESPN’s self-interest in not promoting a game on NBC).
Sadly, likely not, as there are at least two games with bigger national title implications: Stanford-USC and Ohio State-Oklahoma (the likely pick), both of which may be on ESPN/ABC platforms. I’m guessing Ohio State-Oklahoma will be on ABC prime time, so we won’t even get the most eyeballs that evening.
Womp womp.
GameDay was at ND for the 2012 Stanford game.
Aha! I stand corrected. That was the one time between 2007 and today where I was out of the country on a college football Saturday.
Which gave us the immortal “Eifert Tower” gameday sign
This is one of those times I am sad I can only rec/vote-up/whatever it’s called now once per comment. I have tried at least 4 or 5 times.
The fan in me thinks that ND has a good chance to be competitive and beat Georgia. However, the realist in me, if asked the question, “who would you bet on to win?” says take Georgia. That stupid pessimistic realist in my head thinks that if ND could not pull out victories against Florida State and Clemson in recent years, they won’t be able to beat Georgia either.
You’re probably giving Georgia too much credit. This is a team that lost to Vanderbilt last year. Neither Notre Dame nor Georgia has much cause for confidence aside from the talent levels we believe they have based on recruiting rankings.
People forget how horrendously bad Jim Chaney is at his job.
Offensive Consultant, if I remember correctly.
And Notre Dame lost to Duke. Saying ND will win is giving them too much credit.
I don’t think he said ND will win, though.
I think I’m taking Notre Dame, if only because Phil Steele has us rated at 16 over Georgia’s 23. His power ranking gives the edge to Georgia, though.
I suspect UGA will improve on D and still struggle on offense. I’m not sure that means they will struggle against ND’s defense though. It’ll be an important game to see where ND truly has improved.
On the plus side, ND should have the element of surprise. We have new coordinators on both sides of the ball and hopefully we’re able to keep the scheme vanilla and coast against Temple, which wouldn’t leave much film for Georgia to review. Then again, all bets are off if the defense can’t tackle.
Is BVG still a defensive advisor for them? Because if so, I have a pretty compelling case for why Notre Dame will win this game…
He advised them on how to stop the option against Georgia Tech. Results? – http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/11/26/13753350/uga-georgia-tech-final-score-results-2016
That sure looks familiar…
I think he landed at Okie State as an analyst.