On October 8, 2016 things were looking pretty bleak for Chuck Martin. His Miami RedHawks had just been soundly defeated 35-13 on the road to an Akron team that would be obliterated 41-0 the following week by eventual MAC champion Western Michigan. This loss was the 6th straight defeat to begin the season and dropped Martin’s overall record in Oxford to 5-25.
Then, things changed.
Miami won their last 6 regular season games (losing a tie-breaker with Ohio for entry into the MAC title game) and put up a good fight against Mississippi State in a 17-16 loss during the St. Petersburg Bowl.
Miami (OH)
2016 Record: 6-7
2016 S&P Rank: 98
Offense Returning Production Rank: 18
Defense Returning Production Rank: 31
Just in Time
Chuck Martin very likely will not be the head coach at Notre Dame some day and certainly not directly from Miami but he may have saved his job and ability to move up in the ranks in the coming years. He has 2 years left on his contract that is worth about half what he was making as a coordinator at Notre Dame so he’s probably looking to find a better program soon.
The question is if Notre Dame will be facing a run of the mill MAC team this fall or one about to go to the top of the conference and see themselves finish their run that began last year. Oddly enough, coming off his best year Martin was unable to finish strong in recruiting (5th in the MAC for 2017) even as Fleck’s class at Western Michigan started to crumble. However, Martin put together the 2nd and 3rd best classes in the league for 2015-16 and those recruits are now the bulk of his starters.
In Gus We Trust
The key to Miami’s resurgence has been rising redshirt junior quarterback Gus Ragland. He played sparingly in 2015 prior to tearing his knee and missing the start of 2016. Once he was inserted into the starting lineup the wins started coming in full force.
Ragland comes from Cincinnati and might even be a Notre Dame fan! If so, he’ll either play out of his mind or fall on his face there usually isn’t a middle ground in these situations. Be that as it may, his stats were fantastic last year including 19 overall touchdowns and just 1 interception in 7 games played.
Almost literally everyone returns on offense so Ragland will have plenty of experienced help. Plus, he’ll be even further away from his knee injury with an added athletic boost to his 533 career rushing yards.
Can They Make Stops?
If Miami is frisky on offense can their defense stop the Irish enough to make this a game? Well, let’s not overrate their offense to begin with here. The RedHawks only averaged 22.8 points on the season and a nice bump to 27.8 points once Ragland took over the offense.
Their defense actually punched a little above their weight (75th S&P+) and only gave up 23.8 points on the season. They have to replace a few guys in the front 7 but the entire defense is poised to take a step forward.
We’re likely looking at a scenario where if Miami is competitive they’re equally solid on both sides of the ball and not winning a shootout or completely pitching one of the best defensive efforts in school history.
Summer Spread: Irish Favored by 18.5 Points
This line should be over 20 by the time the game rolls around if Notre Dame is playing well and hasn’t blown up the 2017 season by then. The RedHawks were 4 touchdowns dogs at Iowa to start last year (Miami covered) and only 11.5 points underdogs in their last game against Miss State, also covering again.
Buy or Sell: Miami’s Stock Rising
Cautious buy as the pieces have come together nicely. We’ve seen in the past that it doesn’t take much more than a very good college quarterback to go on a nice run in the MAC. The schedule isn’t too bad, either. Notre Dame replaces Iowa but a Marshall program that fell off a cliff replaces Western Kentucky. They’re also in the far easier MAC division.
Know a Player: WR James Gardner
A low 3-star out of Fort Lauderdale with tremendous size (6-4, 212) Gardner didn’t do too much as a true freshman and then had a break out 2016 with 45 receptions, 750 yards, and 6 touchdowns. He led the RedHawks in each category and finished 3rd-team All-MAC.
Outfitter: Adidas
Miami was a Nike school stretching back to the days of Ben Roethlisberger but signed a deal with Adidas in July of 2009. They’ve since re-upped their contract through the 2021 season.
Most Important Game: Cincinnati
Coming off the hot finish to 2016 a great start to 2017 is in the cards. The Bearcats will have new rejuvenated program under Luke Fickell and this could be a big win for Miami. With most of their tougher games down the stretch a 4-0 start would set the tone for a 8-4 type of season and bring them undefeated into Notre Dame Stadium.
Miami (OH) is the posterboy for everything that is wrong with Adidas football uniforms.
Also, Ragland’s release looks so awkward, but man does he get the ball out quick. It looks like they gave up a ton of sacks last year, but I’m wondering if ND’s D-line will get to him at all.