The year was 1996. It was the end of the Lou Holtz era and the Fighting Irish were finishing up a 2-year break from a 6-year run of playing Stanford each season. Up until this point, Notre Dame was 8-3-0 all-time against the Cardinal and despite a pair of crushing losses in the early 90’s the decision was made, rather cavalierly in my opinion, to do something no other program has achieved in modern history.
To become an annual rival with the Fighting Irish.
Stanford (+5.5) at Notre Dame
Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, September 29, 2018
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: NBC
Series: 19-13-0 Notre Dame
The two-decades plus since that decision was made has largely been filled with consternation and pain in the rivalry for Notre Dame. Since 1997, the series holds only a slight 11-10-0 edge for the Irish as Stanford has perfected the ability to (mostly) only lose in the rivalry when they’re quite bad. A full 9 of those 11 wins for Notre Dame in recent years have come against Stanford teams that finished under .500 for the season.
If there’s some hope, the last 2 wins for Notre Dame in the series came against Stanford teams that went a combined 20-7. Beating good Stanford teams is possible!
3 Pre-Game Topics
David Shaw On His Own
The Stanford Regression™ has basically become a meme at this point, now in its 8th year post Jim Harbaugh. The program left to David Shaw has seen coordinators and assistants come and go and yet the Cardinal have inevitably marched onward. There have been a couple minor hiccups in recent years only offering a tease of Stanford’s demise which doesn’t appear to be happening any time soon, and certainly not this season.
Brendan deftly wrote about Notre Dame Football’s Stanford Problem on Wednesday which is full of tremendous background on the recent series on and off the field. This Saturday, all that matters is on the field.
To Juggle or Not to Juggle
Can you believe how much has changed in less than a week? Mere days ago it seemed absurd to bench Brandon Wimbush following a 3-0 start even with the rock-bottom passing figures. Fast-forward one game and Ian Book’s conversion of the minds of Irish fans has been stunning.
With a small sample size, Book would be 17th nationally in passer rating effectively taking the Irish from almost worst to not-quite-first but something enormously more productive and exciting. Brian Kelly once again commented this week that both quarterback’s could play (he said the same last week too and Wimbush sat on the bench) although it feels like a risky proposition to sit Book for any plays unless he truly struggles.
Defending Home Field
Stanford Stadium–both the old and the new–has been a house of nightmares for Notre Dame. With 5 straight losses on The Farm it’s been a decade of frustration that honestly feels like more of a 12-game losing streak. That hilarious win in California from 2007 feels like it was from the Bill Clinton era, doesn’t it?
Meanwhile, in South Bend things have been far more friendly as to be expected. The 2010 and 2016 contests in this series are Stanford’s only victories inside Notre Dame Stadium since 1993, while David Shaw lost his first 2 appearances inside the stadium. The Irish would really like to end that losing streak in Palo Alto, however, giving David Shaw a 3rd loss in South Bend and knocking this current iteration of Stanford from the undefeated ranks would feel gleefully good.
2 Key Opponents
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Many people envision running backs and lots of offensive linemen when they are asked about the Cardinal offense but there’s nothing more Stanford-y, especially from a Notre Dame perspective, than a lanky wide receiver catching clumsily thrown deep jump balls in the biggest moments. It happened last year when Stanford’s run game was largely neutered against Notre Dame and it’s likely to happen again.
Enter Mr. JJ Arcega-Whiteside who does exactly this. Last year, he had a mini-breakout season leading the Cardinal in receptions (48), yards (781) and touchdowns (9). Through 4 games this year, he’s only caught 17 passes just 2 more than fellow wideout Trent Irwin. The difference is that JJAW has totaled 281 more yards. He’s averaging 24.0 yards per catch! Oh yeah, plus he has 7 of Stanford’s 10 passing touchdowns.
CB Paulson Adebo
Originally a commit from June 2016 through the second week of 2017, Adebo left the Irish class after the 4-8 disaster and saddled up with Stanford in short order. He took a redshirt for 2017 and has since blossomed into one of the best defenders on Stanford.
Heading into this weekend he leads the entire country with 11 pass break-ups, two more than Notre Dame’s All-American hopeful Julian Love. The aforementioned Love needs 1 more PBU to set the Fighting Irish school record, by the way.
1 Prediction
We might as well play Stanford now and see where this train led by Ian Book is taking the team, and the Irish program. My odds are as follows:
Kelly’s Sweet Spot (70%)
Wherein we see Ian Book play an average game, perhaps below average game, against Stanford but generally bounce back in the following weeks to follow to have a good but not great year. Wimbush plays again whether in spot duty or due to injury. There’s a little bit of a quarterback controversy but not enough to prevent a grad transfer by Wimbush during the off-season.
Hello, Darkness (15%)
Wherein Ian Book completely bombs on Saturday forcing Wimbush into action who is also completely ineffective. The genius move last weekend now looks considerably less so satisfying. Stanford wins and the offense is sent into a tailspin the rest of the season. We cry a lot.
We Big 12 Now (15%)
Wherein Ian Book really is a revelation and the Irish offense looks like something you’d see at Oklahoma or Oklahoma State. The ability to rush for 200 yards and throw for 300 yards in the same game suddenly can happen anywhere, any time.
I’ll admit I’ve been thinking about the last set of odds a lot this week. The 2015 offense is the closest we’ve seen to a fully-fledged dynamic spread offense but even that version was quite reliant on deep passing and got bogged down in the run game with a reliance on the lumbering Kizer. A more efficient, quick-passing, and exciting offense with a good run game would be something new for the most part.
This would be crazy if it happens. Literally days ago it looked like this offense was trending in an awful direction with too much unproven talent and a quarterback stalling out in his development. Surely, the presence of Ian Book doesn’t completely change things right?
***
At any rate, how big of a game is this on Saturday? A loss would feel like more of the same, if we’re honest. Stanford certainly has controlled the series and as of right now looks like the most likely loss on the schedule, maybe by a wide, wide margin. The schedule is friendly enough that even with a loss 11-1 is still in play so in this sense I’m not sure if it’s a truly massive game.
A win quite possibly sends this late Kelly era into another direction completely. Finally, back-to-back 10+ win seasons would look likely and if you’re feeling confident maybe even the floor for this team. I still wouldn’t believe this is a legitimate playoff-caliber team (in a historical sense) but we’d have to start talking about 12-0 being in the discussion.
Prior to the season this was my No. 1 loss on the schedule and there wasn’t much that would’ve swayed me otherwise. When it comes to Stanford nothing is off the table. Star running back Bryce Love isn’t healthy or flourishing, well it wouldn’t surprise me if he explodes on Saturday night. Ian Book throwing 5 interceptions wouldn’t surprise me. Stanford winning on 5 straight pass interference calls followed up by a Costello rainbow to Arcega-Whiteside wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
Still, Notre Dame should win. Somehow, this is a top 10 matchup and on paper one of the biggest game in this rivalry’s history. Yet, this looks and feels like one of the least scary Stanford teams of the Shaw era. I didn’t think I’d be saying that–and the advanced stats don’t necessarily agree especially defensively–but I’ll stand by that. It’s a hobbled Love with Costello throwing to 2 different tall receivers with a defense with a few name players that was getting absolutely torched by Oregon most of last weekend.
Of course, it’d be classic Stanford to lull the Irish into a false sense of security, win this game, and look good doing it. I find it a little lame to be ‘okay’ with a loss this weekend knowing the schedule is friendly enough for a lot more wins coming up in the future. It’s year 9 for Brian Kelly and forgive me for wanting more, for wanting to see a better football team not one lucking into a major bowl game, and for wanting this team to take care of business against one of its bugaboos. I didn’t think this would be a win but things change. Two wins over ranked opponents need to be in Notre Dame’s back pocket by the end of Saturday night.
Sustained success has seemed to elude Kelly during his tenure here. The 2011 start, Golson suspension, end of 2014 season and all of 2016. Where would a win here rank on the sustained success meter? I guess what I’m saying is would a win this weekend be the most confident we’ve been in the stability of the program?
I’ll be honest given the Kelly tenure just waiting for the other shoe to drop, that I’m afraid to enjoy a 10 win season and to build on it with what could be a great season, but if they beat Stanford it alls on the table
Dare I say a win here would be the modern 2012 Oklahoma moment? That was #5 ND vs a #8 visitor and the sort of moment that you knew it would be a special season (though it was later in the season and took the Irish to 8-0).
But with this schedule thinning out and VT, FSU and even USC not looking as formidable as expected earlier, a convincing win over Stanford should about usher in about the same feelings as 2012 Oklahoma.
Or maybe 2014 FSU if they didn’t call the PI and/or managed to pull it off. Still not over that.
Oklahoma/USC 2012 are and will probably always be peak era Kelly. And Oklahoma 2012 is probably when I first entertained the idea of sustained success, a freshman qb that keeps getting better, a hot shot DC, returning most starters and a top 3 recruiting class. A win this weekend would be the closest to that idea (or I agree scoring a td against FSU would have emulated that feeling)
Side note can yo emulate a feeling? Someone better at vocabulary help me out here
I think emulating feelings is the basis for all politics
…and sex.
Wasn’t 2012 Oklahoma AT Oklahoma?
It was
I stand corrected.
Yes, and I was very cold.
Oh stop it you it wasn’t that cold.
Given his past, I don’t know that I’ll ever be confident in the stability of the program under Kelly. 2015 felt like the year that it was all going in the right direction but alas. Until we see a consistently good performance by a starting QB, I’ll always expect the typical ND collapse.
dont forget to list all the players kelly has sent to the NFL
I think the VanGorder fiasco torpedoed what was an otherwise acceptable, if bumpy, and slow process of returning to the elite ranks under Kelly.
I was pretty sympathetic when it comes to all the off field stuff out of Kelly’s control, some bad injury years, and the fact that in the 21st century ND has a much tougher job when it comes to recruiting the nation’s top talent. But Kelly really severely shot himself in the foot with BVG. Hiring him was forgivable, bringing him back for a second year was very questionable, bringing him back for a third year was immediately recognizable as a horrible decision, no hindsight required, and it cut Notre Dame down at the knees.
I’ve never been on the Fire Kelly bandwagon, but the BVG setback I think will mean that his legacy will be as a transitional coach who brought enough experience and competence to fix the damage ND did with some ill advised hires, and created a program that the next guy can (hopefully) take to the next level.
I agree 100%.
I hate Stanford.
I want to beat them 167-0.
I think we’re gonna lose.
Come on burgs. Buck up. Unless… are you doing the Ignatian detachment thing. Like just letting go and making peace with a loss and then were going to win so the joy will be that much greater than if you had tied your continued existence to a win. Ok I support that.
Unfortunately, I think our enjoyment of wins is directly proportional to suffering losses. Enjoyment of football wins can probably be measured on a 1 to 10 scale something like Buddhist Monk to the Guy who burned down Auburn’s tree and named his daughter Crimson Tide or whatever.
***HOT TAKE ALERT***
I don’t want the trolls all over me, but if we are choosing between:
Kelly’s Sweet Spot (70%)
Hello, Darkness (15%)
We Big 12 Now (15%)
I’d first pick We Big 12 Now and then Kelly’s Sweet Spot followed by Hello, Darkness. (Large gaps between all of those, mind you)
***HOT TAKE ALERT***
Yeah that was too pessimistic. I can’t see Book bombing. His last two games were good going back to LSU. Then people said LSU really wasn’t that good but look where they are now. Granted, it’s a different season.
Assuming that Book and the offense are able to even execute to 75% of the level that they did against Wake Forest I’m fairly confident that we will put up 30+ points and win this game. Watched most of the Stanford/Oregon game and while I don’t discount the advanced stats, the eye test screamed that Stanford was vulnerable in all three facets of the game.
I’m going with ND-31, Stanford- 24
I agree, I watched some of the Oregon game and some of the San Diego State game as well. Much of the advanced stats’ affinity for Stanford’s defense comes from USC stepping all over their collective crank. A phenomenon we’re quite well acquainted with, but still…
With a minute left in the third, Oregon was a few yards away from going up 27-7 at worst, likely 31-7 the way they were moving the ball. Then the center forgot the QB wasn’t eleventy feet tall, it was 24-14 instead, and things started to unravel quickly for the Ducks. I don’t think we’re going to have that moment tomorrow.
ND 30, Stanford 17.
Yeah, a Brian Kelly team could never make an inopportune critical mistake against Stanford at the worst possible time to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, right? (nervous laughter)
That said, I agree with the consensus of points you and Eric made that it does seem like ND is the stronger team.
So, let me play devil’s advocate now… I think we’ve been the clearly stronger team on paper each of the last four years. We lost three of those games and won the other one on a fourth down conversion by the width of Ben Koyack’s toe in the final minute(ish).
Just saying…
Everyone is saying it was such a bad snap, high yes, but the QB SHOULD have caught it. It was eye level.
Which snap?
In the Oregon game. Oregon had first and goal at the Stanford 1, their RB fumbled and QB fell on it to push them back to the 10, then the center snapped high (not super high, but high), the QB couldn’t handle it, and they kicked it around for a bit before Stanford picked it up and rumbled another 80 yards for the score.
Had they punched it in on 1st and G from the 1, it would’ve been 31-7. Had they gotten the 3rd down play off cleanly, there’s a decent chance they would’ve scored – they were going for 8 yards per play on the drive before the first fumble. Had the QB collected the snap cleanly or if they had just fallen on it instead of booting it around, it probably would’ve been 27-7. Instead, the worst possible thing happened.
And they STILL needed Oregon to execute some of the worst clock management I’ve ever seen to get it to overtime.
Yeah, no. I was remembering it as consecutive botched snaps.
I have that game recorded. The snap was absolutely 2 feet over the Oregon qb’s head, and he is 6’6”” tall. In my mind the enter, who had another terrible snap near the goal line earlier that cost Oregon points, lost that game on the field for Oregon. The coaches lost it for them from the side.ines with their boneheaded last regulation drive.
That should be “ center” obviously
Stanford was vulnerable on defense because the Oregon qb was/ is phenomenal, as Shaw said on the field after the game. The kid threw accurate bullets all through regulation, only missed 2 out of 24 or so passes.
I’d hate for us to have to play him.
I’m also sure that Stanford has a much more powerful set of offensive weapons than we’ve seen thus far this year. Costello is a better qb by far than we’ve faced thus far, Love is a gamebreaker if healthy (or close to it) and they have very big, very strong receivers. I think they are beatable, but it will be a true test of our D. I hope they’re up for it.
I agree with everything in here and yet the title made me squeamish. I liked it better last week when everyone was picking us to lose to Wake.
Irish 34, Tree 17.
This is a senior led team that wants this one just a little more than Stanford will be able to contain. The Irish will be a little more efficient and that’ll be enough to win in a much slower paced game than a couple we’ve played.
I have to say, I’m absolutely stunned that the impending return of Dexter Williams made it neither into the preview nor the comments up to this point. A forgotten man, indeed… I don’t think he dramatically shifts the balance of power in this game, but it’s certainly something worth remembering. He’s never had more than eight carries in a game in his career, and I don’t expect him to top that tonight. In fact I think Tony Jones and Jafar Armstrong have done enough to be worth of out-touching him in this game at least, as supported by the fact that, well, nobody has mentioned Dex yet.
I’d guess he’ll be somewhere around 5 carries, unless (be still my heart) we start to run away with it late and the staff can give him an extended opportunity to shake the rust off. What I would love to see is a two-back set with Dex and Armstrong, with Armstrong motioning out to the slot and then running a pattern or coming back across on a jet sweep, or coming across on a fake jet sweep with a counter to Dex…
Hey, this is fun.
Game’s tomorrow.
“Forget it, he’s rolling”
Time has no meaning for me in my current fugue state of game anticipation. It all runs together, bound together tightly by the gnarled rope that is my hatred of Stanford.
Or something like that.
You’re just planning on watching 24 hours of pregame – which will include 6 hours of the Today show, some Fallon, and golf.
Swap out Fallon for late-night Nat Geo and the Today show for, well, anything and you’ve got a deal.
Gotta keep it on NBC, man. Thems the rules.
I’m thinking he gets his first carry on the third drive when it’s still scoreless. He comes in for Jones or Armstrong somewhere within the 40 and takes it in for a score and he’s absolutely pumped. It energizes the whole stadium and ND jumps out to a 21-3 halftime lead. Final score 38-17.
His 5 carries may have just substantially increased. Damn.
There must be a reason he’s gotten so few carries
From the outside, it is much easier to be optimistic this week after seeing the team roll over WF. They have the pieces in place to put the Tree into a chipper. I think the game will be determined not so much by the QB choice or X’s and O’s as by intangibles. What is the level of confidence of the team? Do they believe they can beat Stanford for a full game after losing more often than not? Does Stanford doubt themselves after benefiting from Oregon beating themselves?
A confident Irish team wins this by multiple scores as Love is contained and Costello throws multiple interceptions due to pressure. The self doubting “hoping something goes their way” team will lose a close game in a way that will have them second guessing themselves the rest of the year (sort of like Oregon is doing now).
I can’t remember being this nervous for a Standard game. I was excited more than nervous for Miami. This feels more like OU in 12. I’ve seen some things that make me optimistic and some things that make me want. And now we’re waiting to see how we do with a big test. Here’s hoping it comes out like that one did!
Yeah standard games usually dont get me as nervous as Stanford games either. I agree.
I think it might be a bit trickier for ND to put up points this week, so I’m adjusting my prediction:
56-0
Extremely important game for the Irish and BK. This is a game Notre Dame must get and I think they will get it. I got it 31-17 Notre Dame. Book scores 4 more touchdowns.
Mere days ago it seemed absurd to bench Brandon Wimbush following a 3-0 start even with the rock-bottom passing figures.
I think this is open for disagreement. I was hoping Book would have subbed in the BSU and Vandy games by halftime.
Absurd to some but not all!
This probably won’t be a popular opinion because of the disdain for Stanford in general and Shaw in particular (and I totally share those feelings), but…
I would trade a close loss tomorrow for a sweep of our 4 November games. It would be so like us to score a convincing win over the Tree, only to stumble and lose to Northwestern or Syracuse (or heaven forbid USC). I am tired of us being in playoff contention every year when the initial CFP rankings come out only to fade down the stretch.
I don’t think ND was top 10 in the 2016 Playoff rankings at any point.
I don’t think 11-1 gets ND to the playoffs this year, so to me this actually is a huge game. (Although I think we’d get smoked by the top 3 teams, I’d still love to get there and see just how strong our D is).
With no Jafar and Dex easing back in, I think they’ll put a lot on Book’s shoulders (and I bet Wimbush gets 1 series each half, because that would be a Kelly thing to do). I don’t think Book needs to be as good as last week (although I missed most of the game due to travel so didn’t get to see everything he did), he’ll have to be better than the LSU game. So if he can play somewhere in between his 2 most recent appearances, I think ND will be in great shape.
24-20 Irish.
I agree with you on both of your playoff points. Unless drama happens (which it probably will because college football) I don’t think they get in at 11-1 either, if this is their loss.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see Wimbush get some snaps this game either, even if it’s just to take some carries from jones and dex.
This comment raises an interesting point: is it better to make the playoff and get rocked by Alabama, or go 11-1 and have a shot at going 12-1? Not clear, though great that these are the kinds of problems we can reasonably worry about at the moment (or at least as of this time tomorrow may be able to worry about).
Stanford is actually a pretty great example of this. I’d argue that all of their “success” is dampened by the fact they’ve never made the playoff (or BCS Championship) during the Harbaugh/Shaw era, but I wonder how their fans feel about that. For ND, it probably doesn’t matter much either way this year; 10+ wins in a second straight year should give the program some great momentum. But if we’d been winning 9/10+ consistently like Stanford, I’d say this season would be much more successful with an appearance in the playoff ending with absolute domination by Bama.
I agree with that – I’m pretty sure Stanford is at the “we need to make the playoff, even if we get killed” point. ND, on the other hand, has already experienced the “getting killed in the playoff” equivalent and probably could use a 12-1 season with a big bowl win more than Stanford.
I guess, assuming we’re not going to win the CFP and would likely get crushed by one of the other teams in the first round of the playoff – i.e., wouldn’t win the round 1 game and lose the NCG – ND’s best possible season is losing the Syracuse game (as crushing as it would be, it would deservedly draw ire to Swarbrick for the unnecessary and silly travel scheduling, plus it avoids losing to Stanford/FSU/Navy/USC), then winning the Peach Bowl over Auburn or something.
It’s an interesting thought.
I wouldn’t mind your scenario in the least, plenty of positives from going 12-1 no matter what. And ending on a high note of finally winning a NY6 bowl game would be very satisfying.
But, that said, even if the final game is “meeting their maker” at the hands of a bad loss in the playoff to a Bama/Clemson type, I still would take it. 12-0 and a perfect regular season would be really special. There’s no conference championship to win, but very few teams are going to go undefeated in their schedule and that makes for one of the best seasons in the country.
So I guess I’m saying I think it would be better to make the playoffs than not make the playoffs. Plus it would get Notre Dame back into real relevance and keep them more in the spotlight all through December.
Tough to sign up for getting crushed, but looking back would you say 2012 is preferable to a slightly better 2017, right? That’s a pretty good parallel to each scenario. Hurts to get blown out in the end but I’ll take that and the perfect reg season and more prominence.
And as mentioned, they already beat a good SEC team in a New Years Day bowl last year. 12-0 would feel different. Winning the Peach Bowl feels a bit too lateral from 2017. Making the playoffs would at least be a very real and very important forward step for the program. Not too many different teams have made the playoffs and that’s definitely the echelon you want to be in.
Love your thinking on the Syracuse loss. I won’t ask to lose against Syracuse, but if we had to lose one….
I’d rather get left out of the playoffs, go 11-1 and get a winnable matchup against a non top 3 team. 12-1 Cotton Bowl champs!
Strange sight at the end of the Clemson and Syracuse game. Clemson fought back with a backup in the 2nd half but still…to see the Clemson home crowd rush the field after the win was strange. They are the #3 team in the country at home defeating an unranked team and they storm the field. Just not typical behavior for a heavy favorite who has been an elite team for the past 10 years.
Actually typical behavior, since they do it after literally every home game, including losses.
OK, I saw that it was typical just a few minutes ago on a website. Strange tradition but OK, that’s all good if it is a tradition.