The year was 1996. It was the end of the Lou Holtz era and the Fighting Irish were finishing up a 2-year break from a 6-year run of playing Stanford each season. Up until this point, Notre Dame was 8-3-0 all-time against the Cardinal and despite a pair of crushing losses in the early 90’s the decision was made, rather cavalierly in my opinion, to do something no other program has achieved in modern history.

To become an annual rival with the Fighting Irish.

Stanford (+5.5) at Notre Dame

Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, September 29, 2018
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: NBC
Series: 19-13-0 Notre Dame

The two-decades plus since that decision was made has largely been filled with consternation and pain in the rivalry for Notre Dame. Since 1997, the series holds only a slight 11-10-0 edge for the Irish as Stanford has perfected the ability to (mostly) only lose in the rivalry when they’re quite bad. A full 9 of those 11 wins for Notre Dame in recent years have come against Stanford teams that finished under .500 for the season.

If there’s some hope, the last 2 wins for Notre Dame in the series came against Stanford teams that went a combined 20-7. Beating good Stanford teams is possible!

3 Pre-Game Topics

David Shaw On His Own

The Stanford Regression™ has basically become a meme at this point, now in its 8th year post Jim Harbaugh. The program left to David Shaw has seen coordinators and assistants come and go and yet the Cardinal have inevitably marched onward. There have been a couple minor hiccups in recent years only offering a tease of Stanford’s demise which doesn’t appear to be happening any time soon, and certainly not this season.

Brendan deftly wrote about Notre Dame Football’s Stanford Problem on Wednesday which is full of tremendous background on the recent series on and off the field. This Saturday, all that matters is on the field.

To Juggle or Not to Juggle

Can you believe how much has changed in less than a week? Mere days ago it seemed absurd to bench Brandon Wimbush following a 3-0 start even with the rock-bottom passing figures. Fast-forward one game and Ian Book’s conversion of the minds of Irish fans has been stunning.

With a small sample size, Book would be 17th nationally in passer rating effectively taking the Irish from almost worst to not-quite-first but something enormously more productive and exciting. Brian Kelly once again commented this week that both quarterback’s could play (he said the same last week too and Wimbush sat on the bench) although it feels like a risky proposition to sit Book for any plays unless he truly struggles.

Defending Home Field

Stanford Stadium–both the old and the new–has been a house of nightmares for Notre Dame. With 5 straight losses on The Farm it’s been a decade of frustration that honestly feels like more of a 12-game losing streak. That hilarious win in California from 2007 feels like it was from the Bill Clinton era, doesn’t it?

Meanwhile, in South Bend things have been far more friendly as to be expected. The 2010 and 2016 contests in this series are Stanford’s only victories inside Notre Dame Stadium since 1993, while David Shaw lost his first 2 appearances inside the stadium. The Irish would really like to end that losing streak in Palo Alto, however, giving David Shaw a 3rd loss in South Bend and knocking this current iteration of Stanford from the undefeated ranks would feel gleefully good.

2 Key Opponents

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside

Many people envision running backs and lots of offensive linemen when they are asked about the Cardinal offense but there’s nothing more Stanford-y, especially from a Notre Dame perspective, than a lanky wide receiver catching clumsily thrown deep jump balls in the biggest moments. It happened last year when Stanford’s run game was largely neutered against Notre Dame and it’s likely to happen again.

Enter Mr. JJ Arcega-Whiteside who does exactly this. Last year, he had a mini-breakout season leading the Cardinal in receptions (48), yards (781) and touchdowns (9). Through 4 games this year, he’s only caught 17 passes just 2 more than fellow wideout Trent Irwin. The difference is that JJAW has totaled 281 more yards. He’s averaging 24.0 yards per catch! Oh yeah, plus he has 7 of Stanford’s 10 passing touchdowns.

CB Paulson Adebo

Originally a commit from June 2016 through the second week of 2017, Adebo left the Irish class after the 4-8 disaster and saddled up with Stanford in short order. He took a redshirt for 2017 and has since blossomed into one of the best defenders on Stanford.

Heading into this weekend he leads the entire country with 11 pass break-ups, two more than Notre Dame’s All-American hopeful Julian Love. The aforementioned Love needs 1 more PBU to set the Fighting Irish school record, by the way.

1 Prediction

We might as well play Stanford now and see where this train led by Ian Book is taking the team, and the Irish program. My odds are as follows:

Kelly’s Sweet Spot (70%) 

Wherein we see Ian Book play an average game, perhaps below average game, against Stanford but generally bounce back in the following weeks to follow to have a good but not great year. Wimbush plays again whether in spot duty or due to injury. There’s a little bit of a quarterback controversy but not enough to prevent a grad transfer by Wimbush during the off-season.

Hello, Darkness (15%)

Wherein Ian Book completely bombs on Saturday forcing Wimbush into action who is also completely ineffective. The genius move last weekend now looks considerably less so satisfying. Stanford wins and the offense is sent into a tailspin the rest of the season. We cry a lot.

We Big 12 Now (15%)

Wherein Ian Book really is a revelation and the Irish offense looks like something you’d see at Oklahoma or Oklahoma State. The ability to rush for 200 yards and throw for 300 yards in the same game suddenly can happen anywhere, any time.

I’ll admit I’ve been thinking about the last set of odds a lot this week. The 2015 offense is the closest we’ve seen to a fully-fledged dynamic spread offense but even that version was quite reliant on deep passing and got bogged down in the run game with a reliance on the lumbering Kizer. A more efficient, quick-passing, and exciting offense with a good run game would be something new for the most part.

This would be crazy if it happens. Literally days ago it looked like this offense was trending in an awful direction with too much unproven talent and a quarterback stalling out in his development. Surely, the presence of Ian Book doesn’t completely change things right?

***

At any rate, how big of a game is this on Saturday? A loss would feel like more of the same, if we’re honest. Stanford certainly has controlled the series and as of right now looks like the most likely loss on the schedule, maybe by a wide, wide margin. The schedule is friendly enough that even with a loss 11-1 is still in play so in this sense I’m not sure if it’s a truly massive game.

A win quite possibly sends this late Kelly era into another direction completely. Finally, back-to-back 10+ win seasons would look likely and if you’re feeling confident maybe even the floor for this team. I still wouldn’t believe this is a legitimate playoff-caliber team (in a historical sense) but we’d have to start talking about 12-0 being in the discussion.

Prior to the season this was my No. 1 loss on the schedule and there wasn’t much that would’ve swayed me otherwise. When it comes to Stanford nothing is off the table. Star running back Bryce Love isn’t healthy or flourishing, well it wouldn’t surprise me if he explodes on Saturday night. Ian Book throwing 5 interceptions wouldn’t surprise me. Stanford winning on 5 straight pass interference calls followed up by a Costello rainbow to Arcega-Whiteside wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

Still, Notre Dame should win. Somehow, this is a top 10 matchup and on paper one of the biggest game in this rivalry’s history. Yet, this looks and feels like one of the least scary Stanford teams of the Shaw era. I didn’t think I’d be saying that–and the advanced stats don’t necessarily agree especially defensively–but I’ll stand by that. It’s a hobbled Love with Costello throwing to 2 different tall receivers with a defense with a few name players that was getting absolutely torched by Oregon most of last weekend.

Of course, it’d be classic Stanford to lull the Irish into a false sense of security, win this game, and look good doing it. I find it a little lame to be ‘okay’ with a loss this weekend knowing the schedule is friendly enough for a lot more wins coming up in the future. It’s year 9 for Brian Kelly and forgive me for wanting more, for wanting to see a better football team not one lucking into a major bowl game, and for wanting this team to take care of business against one of its bugaboos. I didn’t think this would be a win but things change. Two wins over ranked opponents need to be in Notre Dame’s back pocket by the end of Saturday night.

Stanford 26

Notre Dame 30