Following a lovely 4-year break we now welcome the odorous Michigan Wolverines back to Notre Dame once again. When we last saw the winged helmets the Irish delivered one of the sweetest victories this century, sending Michigan on its way to a 5-7 season and a firing of head coach Brady Hoke. Now, with the Hoke-era seemingly a million miles away, and Michigan nailing a generational home-grown hire, the Wolverines are in a weird spot. They’ve typically taken care of business against weaker teams in recent years but are still longing for much more under 4th-year head coach Jim Harbaugh.
#14 Michigan (+1.5) at #11 Notre Dame
Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, September 1, 2018
Time: 7:30 PM ET
TV: NBC
Series: 24-17-1 Michigan
The matchup is pretty important and ESPN College GameDay is in town for the 8th time in history out of Notre Dame’s 28 overall appearances on the weekly game of the week feature. The Fighting Irish are 6-2 in their last 8 home games against Michigan, are ranked higher in the pre-season AP Poll, and Notre Dame was almost a rare home underdog in the Brian Kelly era until earlier this week.
3 Pre-game Topics
Harbaugh, Withering?Â
It hasn’t been a perfect linear regression but Jim Harbaugh almost seems to be slowly descending down the college football pyramid of success. To date, a couple of conference titles at San Diego, a couple 2nd place finishes in the Pac-12 at Stanford, a couple 3rd place divisional finishes at Michigan, prior to last year’s 4th place finish within the Big Ten East. Selective editing (which doesn’t include a 44-19-1 visit to the NFL) so sue me.
With 4 years and $28,000,000 still remaining on his initial 7-year contract it’s not practical that Harbaugh is legitimately on the hot seat. Although, if he loses in South Bend–with an additional 4 more pre-season ranked teams to go on the 2018 schedule–things will start to get deliciously interesting.
For reasons largely revolving around a crumbling offensive system, things fell apart in mid-November 2016 and Harbaugh hasn’t been able to get things back on track as of yet. To that point, he was 19-3 (5-3 against ranked teams) to start his Michigan tenure and had his 2016 squad off to a 9-0 start averaging 48 points per game. Since then, the Wolverines are 11-9 and 0-7 against ranked teams while averaging only 24.7 points per game.
Kelly Renaissance?
Jim Harbaugh has beaten 5 ranked teams in 3 years at Michigan. Brian Kelly beat 4 ranked teams last year alone, so there’s that tidbit. Notre Dame did re-set the program in a positive way in 2017 although as per usual the lingering issues of a higher ceiling, fear of another drop-back, and Kelly’s future remain a constant topic in South Bend.
Kelly certainly isn’t in any greater position than Harbaugh to afford a loss. A defeat likely jacks up the improbability of making the playoffs and/or securing a major bowl game. A win very likely means a 4-0 start heading into another titanic matchup with Stanford. Buckle up.
Is it Worth it?
This is the first of a home-and-home series that will conclude on October 26, 2019 in Ann Arbor. It’s been a 4-year absence from not really paying much attention to Michigan, which honestly, felt pretty good didn’t it?
These upcoming 2 games could play a large role in any future signed contracts between these programs. We likely won’t even know who will be around in power at Notre Dame by the time a renewal is signed, either. Will these games be premier college football must-see TV? Also, Brian Kelly could finish his Irish career (assuming no new games in the series well into the 2020’s and beyond) going on a 4-1 run against Michigan which could feel damn satisfying.
2 Key Opponents
LB Devin Bush
Notre Dame is going to have its hands full dealing with defensive ends Rashan Gary (rumored to be banged up) and Chase Winovich who combined for 30.5 tackles for loss last year. Those two would’ve been nearly 40% of Notre Dame’s TFL’s last year, for reference. You can imagine new offensive line coach Jeff Quinn will be working in concert with Chip Long and quarterback Brandon Wimbush to set protections properly on the edges.
There may be overcompensation which could open the door to aggressive middle linebacker Devin Bush to wreak havoc. He’s used freely in Don Brown’s aggressive scheme and is constantly around the ball with 102 tackles last year. He wears #10 at the linebacker which is worth probably 18% more production due to increased swag levels.
QB Shea Patterson
Last week I was listening to the Ryen Russillo Show with Scott Van Pelt as a guest and they discussed a point that made me completely take notice. Shea Patterson quarterbacking at Michigan under Harbaugh is super weird. He’s athletic, kind of squirrely, and is coming from a super wide-open spread offense at Ole Miss. It’s far easier to take a spread quarterback and tweak his game to a more pro-style scheme, but still. This is an odd mash-up transfer that could take a while to gel with no spring practices in the books and UM rumored to be opening things up in a way that hasn’t occurred under Harbaugh.
What could a Jim Harbaugh spread offense look like? https://t.co/wFlK2hSqM0 pic.twitter.com/UzbtfTkuod
— Ian Boyd (@Ian_A_Boyd) August 27, 2018
Or, maybe Patterson is a whirling dervish and completely unpredictable for Clark Lea to combat in his first appearance? Michigan’s offense was an astoundingly bad 85th in S&P+ last year with an abysmal passing game bringing up the rear. Picture a slightly worse 2017 Notre Dame passing game in this regard without the accompanied 1,000 rushing yards from the quarterbacks.
Patterson is by far the most talented quarterback Harbaugh has worked with at Michigan and should craft a short-passing game to fit his strengths. The crucial breaks will be how many poor decisions he makes and how well Notre Dame tackles in space.
1 Prediction
I haven’t been able to focus much on anything else for this game beyond Notre Dame’s ability to establish a running game, particularly from the running back position. Michigan carried the 8th best rushing defense last year according to S&P+ and their defense overall is projected to be second only to Clemson for this upcoming season.
Notre Dame faced a pair of top 10 rushing defenses last year in Michigan State (4th) and Georgia (9th) being able to total 237 yards on 77 carries for 3.0 yards per rush, obviously performing much better against the Spartans as most remember. Perhaps more troubling, Irish running backs were successful on only 20 out of their 49 carries (40.8%) in these 2 games, including just 7 successful carries against the Dawgs.
I can’t imagine Notre Dame seriously relying on their running backs in this game–the Irish didn’t explore options against Georgia beyond Josh Adams while Brandon Wimbush finished with his third most carries of the 2017 season in that game, too. So much of this points to Wimbush going for 20+ carries which I don’t hate, it’s just what else can Notre Dame do on the ground outside of the quarterback?
Many are low-key buying Notre Dame’s running backs for the length of the season which I understand because their stock is so low. In part, I agree but for this opener I’m terrified. You’d think Michigan will be hyper-focused on bottling up Wimbush’s legs and that could leave some big lanes for the running backs. That’s my hope but I can also see the backs totaling about 38 yards with Tony Jones receiving 80% of the snaps as we’re left wondering where all this talk about Jafar Armstrong and Avery Davis was for the opener. As tough as it may be, I have a hard time seeing either of those guys getting much run for their first games ever in this game.
The path to victory has to be Notre Dame’s defense, not necessarily outplaying Michigan’s defense, but encountering a Michigan offense out of sorts with a quarterback barely able to find his way around campus yet, baffled by perhaps the country’s weirdest (would you expect anything else with Harbaugh?) offensive coordinator situation, and generally not handling (dare I say) a tough big-time road environment all that well.
A lot of this doesn’t make sense. Notre Dame was a significantly better team last year finishing 19 spots higher than Michigan in the F/+ ratings, the Irish are at home, and they are rated higher in the polls. Yet, they were not favored to win the football game until early this week when the line moved again presumably based on some Michigan injury news.
With Notre Dame football we’ve been stuck in this vortex where all of these big games have to mean something deeply to the future. I can’t remember a time when this wasn’t the case, certainly since covering the team. And yet, we’ve been down this road before (like Georgia last year!) and it’s hard to argue that any single game has really, truly mattered like we thought it could. More than anything, I’d like this game to have enormous meaning.
If the Irish win can they actually ride a very good, perhaps great, defense to post-season success? Or, if Harbaugh takes one out of South Bend do you believe it’s really going to usher in the end of the Kelly era and possibly a rough season? I don’t have these answers of course, all I can do is go with my gut and it says Michigan wins.
Although, it feels extremely unwise to bet against Kelly versus Michigan. Even his largest critics within Notre Dame have to admit maybe his greatest attribute is a reported utter disdain for the Wolverines. I feel foolish already betting against that.
Michigan 22
Notre Dame 17
QB controversy: I’ll say Wimbush puts up 17 of 31, 218 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 1 interception, 22 rushes, and 87 rushing yards. Decent numbers against this competition, the crowd never gets too restless due to a close dragged out game, and Book never sees any snaps.
Notre Dame wins if: They show that Michigan’s offensive line is the weakest unit on the field by a fair margin.
This guy could be a problem: Wideout Donovan Peoples-Jones is 6’2″ with the length of someone 6’6″ and runs like he’s 5’10” so he’s scary. He was going to be teaming up with Tarik Black (out, foot surgery) to form a dangerous young receiver corps and will now likely get a ton of targets, plus he’ll likely be used as a return man.
Sneaky big Irish advantage: Michigan’s punting situation is in limbo while Notre Dame’s Tyler Newsome–sometimes a little inconsistent–has shown he can be a huge asset flipping the field in a close game with little offense.
Since this preview was written largely in advance of the late line movement here’s more info on the Irish as a home underdog for reference: Notre Dame has been an underdog in 25 out of Brian Kelly’s 103 (24.2%) games coached. This will be only the 6th time the Irish will be a home underdog in this era joining Georgia Tech (2015), Stanford (2014), Oklahoma (2013), Utah (2010) and Stanford (2010). That’s a sneaky stat that Notre Dame has been favored in its last 17 (well, now 18) home games.
As an underdog, Notre Dame has been 3-2 at home, 4-2 at neutral sites, and 2-12 on the road.
“Notre Dame wins if: They show that Michigan’s offensive line is the weakest unit on the field by a fair margin.”
Totally agree there, and I believe it to be true too. Also Patterson’s stats against everyone besides UT-Martin and South Alabama show a guy who can be flustered and make mistakes. Add that weak line to being on the road, in prime time for his first start in an offense that isn’t tailor-made for his strengths and I’ve long thought (possibly hoped) it wouldn’t just be ND that has inconsistent QB play in this game.
I agree it should be a close game, possibly determined by the last possession. Hopefully ND wins the turnover battle and controls field position, an old school defensive matchup. Give me 17-13 Notre Dame win with the key play being another Love pick-6.
Just looked at that 2019 schedule (and more future schedules), they’re super chill. Petersen gonna have more marquee games in his first year here than the rest of his career combined.
But for the most part I’ve written this off as a loss, don’t see ND making enough plays or sustaining enough drives to get it done and Michigan will make enough plays on offense to win
Since I can’t remember the last time the Irish blocked a kickoff return well and given the rule change (any fair catch within the 25 yard line moves the ball out to the 25) I’m of the opinion that pretty much every kickoff inside the 20 should be fair caught. Anyone real optimistic on our kick return unit this year?
Completely off topic, but as this is the most recent post: We’re firing up the 18S Gameday chat a little early, so those of you who have been so desperate for a CFB fix that you’ll tune into Northwestern-Purdue or – hold onto your hats – the CivilConFLiCT will have a place to discuss with like-minded folks.
If you’ve already joined our little Slack world, the direct link to get back in is nice and easy:
https://18stripesgameday.slack.com
If you haven’t, here’s the invite link – feel free to share with others if you’d like, too:
https://join.slack.com/t/18stripesgameday/shared_invite/enQtMjM0NzM3NzQ3MDEwLWM0NzU4YTFkYjE1ZGEwYzM2MmM0MmZhOGFlZGU2ZjhlOTJhMGEwZTAxYzY0MTZmNWUxYzRhMWM4OTk4Njk2MmQ
You’re the greatest – thank you!
I agree with this prediction. The over/under line is 47, and taking the under seems like free money? If I were a gambling man, I would be all over this.
As far as the result, I think two underappreciated factors in the discussion are the following:
1) Michigan has more top-level elite talent, and they’ve mostly got some experience now. To the extent there are any first or second-round picks on ND’s roster, they are probably first or second-year players with limited experience (with the possible exception of Tillery).
2) Notwithstanding the not-fully-flattering stuff above about Harbaugh and their weird OC situation, Michigan’s coaching staff is clearly better than ours. Michigan has some serious coaching talent (not just Harbaugh but Don Brown, McElwain, Mattison, and Warriner). I think the only reason for optimism on this front, at least for this game, is they end up with too many offensive cooks in the kitchen.
It’ll be low-scoring and I think close, but I’m not feeling great about it. I’ll be there, though, doing my best to make it loud for Michigan’s offense.
Retroactive pro tip: Click the “Read more >>>” so this expands into paragraphs and is actually legible… Completely agree on the O/U, it seems stupidly high no matter who you think is going to win. It actually opened at 48 and is now 46.5, according to the VI Consensus board, and I’d expect it to come down further. Stupidly high. On point (1), I agree to an extent. Gary is clearly better than anyone we have on the DL, setting aside any lingering health questions. Bush is excellent, but I don’t know that the gap between him and Coney is so big. Bush is more athletic, Coney is more of a thumper. Winovich is a good player. I’m not sure he’s significantly better than Okwara/Hayes, but he certainly has more production on his resume. I’d put Love and Pride up against anyone. Their safeties actually have only slightly fewer questions about them than ours do. But, like I said, I’d agree that on resume their defense has more identifiable blue-chip talent than ours. I also don’t think that’s a relevant comparison for the game, though, because the defenses aren’t playing each other. I think the gap between their OL and our DL is bigger than the gap between their DL and our OL, and that could be big. [Caveat: I thought the same thing about Georgia last year.] On point (2), I don’t agree at all. Chip Long’s 2016 Memphis offense ranked 37th in S&P+ and his 2017 ND offense ranked 24th. McElwain’s Florida offenses ranked 73rd, 88th, and 108th 2015-17. In two years at the helm of Stanford’s offense, Pep Hamilton ranked 8th and 29th, sandwiched around Andrew Luck’s departure. He then spent the next four years in the NFL – three as the Colts’ OC, in which they ranked 13th, 17th, and 30th in Football Outsiders’s team offense ratings, in order, and one in Cleveland as the QB coach – before landing at Michigan last year. He and Tim Drevno were co-OCs for the 85th ranked offense, down from 40th the year before. Those are some ugly trends. You put two crappy cooks together, it’s not going to give you a better cake. I’ll take Chip Long over them all day. Remember that Ed Warriner used to coach here and was told not to let the door hit him because he wanted an OC title and Kelly would’ve give it to him. Which reportedly is the same reason he left OSU, btw. I don’t think he’s a bad coach by any means but I don’t think he’s a clear win over Quinn. Mattison is a good DL coach, but Elston isn’t crap. If there’s a gap there it’s not big. Don Brown is clearly one of the top DC’s in college football, and Lea is a promising rookie. No question they win there. The rest of the two staffs are a wash, or close enough not to argue anyway. So we have Brown over Lea, and Long over… Read more »
First thanks for noting at the beginning about clicking read more. I know to click it but when I first started reading I never know this particular comment is long enough that I need to do it.
Second, just a little push back with the quality of the Michigan top talent: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pff-college-50-top-ncaa-players-for-2018
This seems to indicate that that they are clearly superior with 3 players at 27, 28 and 30. No Gary in the top 50. I dont know the quality of PFF only recently finding them but it seemed worthy of consideration.
PFF is pretty well thought of, but I’d be stunned if Winovich is drafted ahead of Bush and Gary. I don’t know about Hill relative to Winovich, but regardless, those four guys are really good.
I’m not sure if you’re pushing back on me or nd09hls12, but in any case I agreed with him, I think their defense talent is superior on resume right now. Whether it’s really better is a separate and at this point unanswerable question.
The main difference, IMO, is that aside from Gary we have similar talent but it has less production on record. Tillery, Coney, Bush, Pride are all guys I expect will get there. I don’t think they’d all make someone’s top 50 list, necessarily, but they’re all guys with a pro future. They’re certainly good enough.
And, again, a D on D talent comparison is fun for us but doesn’t have much to do with the actual game. If we want to talk about Gary and Winovich against Eichenberg and Hainsey, or Bush and whoever against Bars, Mustipher, and Kraemer, etc., that’s more relevant.
I agree that it doesn’t pertain much to the game in the way you specify.
This was the comment that I was wondering whether it was true based on the stats from PFF: “Bush is excellent, but I don’t know that the gap between him and Coney is so big. Bush is more athletic, Coney is more of a thumper. Winovich is a good player. I’m not sure he’s significantly better than Okwara/Hayes, but he certainly has more production on his resume. I’d put Love and Pride up against anyone.”
It would seem if those Michigan defenders are on a top 50 list for overall players there be a bigger gap between them and our top guys. Though I’d be happy if that turns out to be false.
That’s what I was getting at by saying that aside from Gary we have similar talent but it has less production on record. Winovich, for example, is a fifth year senior. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Okwara or Kareem is just as highly regarded after the 2019 season, when their experience would be more commensurate with Winovich’s. Conversely, I also wouldn’t expect Okwara to appear on anyone’s top 50 list now based off his career production.
I’ll put our corners up against anyone’s, no question. Numbers aren’t everything, of course, but the “aggressive” Lavert Hill and David Long *combined* for 13 PBUs, 4 INTs, and 28 tackles last year, as compared to Julian Love’s 20, 3, and 45. Hill and Long got more press because Michigan was considered (rightly) an elite defense all season, but I wouldn’t trade Love for either of them.
To some extent those lists are about hype. People have been waiting for Devin Bush to make an impact since he signed, and once he did make an impact he started appearing on the board. I think that’s fair, he’s a very good player who would probably start for any team in the country, including Alabama. Coney can’t move like Bush can, but I stand by the idea that the drop-off isn’t large.
The larger point is that while it’s fair to say their defense has more proven talent than ours, I don’t think it’s fair to say that they’re at another level physically than our defense. That’s kind of how I read nd09hls12’s comment, that people should cool it on the ND defense hype because they’re not at the same level as Michigan.
And, more to the point (I know you agree on this), the relevant thing is really our defensive talent versus their offensive talent. I’d stop well short of predicting it, but I think there’s a pretty good chance that Kareem and Okwara/Hayes are going to eat their tackles up. Pride and Love should be able to hold their own. Their run game has some potential but Tillery, Bonner, and Coney should make us really solid up the middle. I’m probably most nervous about their TE – I forget his name but he’s 6’8″ and really athletic.
“I’m probably most nervous about their TE – I forget his name but he’s 6’8″ and really athletic.”
Pretty disappointed I can’t tell you it’s Butt…
“what objective info is there about their college chops that indicates Harbaugh is clearly better?”
I don’t think Harbaugh is in the top tier of coaches based on a lacking trophy case, but “Brian Kelly and Jim Harbaugh are basically the same” is some galaxy-brain stuff. Harbaugh took Stanford from the dregs to being one of the best programs in the country in less than half a decade. He took a team quarterbacked by Colin Kaepernick to the Super Bowl. His NFL winning percentage puts him as one of the best NFL coaches this century (I realize you said college achievements, but that’s being selective in a manner unfair to Harbaugh, as he was doing great stuff with a crappy organization those years while Kelly was mostly floundering, 2012 obviously excepted). To use a metric that is generally favorable to Kelly as compared to results on the field, he took a Michigan team from 48th to 5th in the country in S&P+ in his first season at Michigan and then had a much better S&P+ team than Kelly’s best team the next year. 8-5 last year was a distinct disappointment for Harbaugh; it would be an only-slightly-below-average season for Brian Kelly.
If you were to ask any neutral fan who they would prefer if they wanted to win football games, nobody would take Brian Kelly if offered Jim Harbaugh instead.
Another way of putting it:
Is Harbaugh one of the 5 best coaches in college football? No, certainly not at least as of today.
Is Harbaugh somewhere between 6 and ~18? Yes, definitely. Your milage may vary as to where, but he’s somewhere in there.
Is Brian Kelly somewhere between 6 and ~18? No, definitely not.
It’s not unfair to exclude his Niners tenure because the pro and college games aren’t the same. We have plenty of examples of that. What works in one doesn’t work for the other. Stanford wasn’t exactly sorry to see him go to San Fran, by the way, which is an impressive amount of antipathy from a place that doesn’t care about football.
I think if you were to ask “neutral” people around the country you might be surprised at the opinions of Kelly. I think there are plenty of people who would put him in, to use your measure, the top 18 coaches, and ascribe his failings at ND more to the institution than him. There are certainly plenty of neutral fans who want nothing to do with Harbaugh because they think he’s freaking loony.
Which brings me to my next point… I think Harbaugh is a better choice than Kelly to jolt a program. I think Kelly is probably better at maintaining a program. It’s a little hard to tell of course because Harbaugh has never stuck around long – three years at San Diego, four years at Stanford (where they said goodbye fondly), four years in San Fran (where they were ready to run him out on a rail), and this is his fourth year in Michigan and the whispers are there in some corners. There are living, breathing Michigan fans who have resigned themselves to the idea that Harbaugh is a 9-3-ish coach who will never get them over the hump or past their most hated rivals. Sound familiar?
Over their last 17 games, since Iowa upset them in 2016, Michigan is 9-8, 1-8 against teams with winning records, and 0-7 against end-of-season ranked teams (side note: in the same stretch we’ve played two non-winning teams). That sample is just under half of his Michigan tenure. In his career, Harbaugh is 2-3 in bowl games (1-1 at Stanford and 1-2 at Michigan), has never played in a BCS title game or in the playoffs, and has never even won his division at Stanford or Michigan, let alone a conference title.
Also, I didn’t say “Jim Harbaugh and Brian Kelly are practically the same.” I said I wouldn’t put Harbaugh “clearly ahead” of Kelly, which sounded like you put him on a clearly better tier. If you want to put him a little ahead, fine. But this idea that they’re in different tiers isn’t remotely supported by Harbaugh’s actual performance on a college field, which is a distinction that matters. I think Harbaugh is a good coach. I don’t think he’s a great coach. I also think Kelly is a good, not great coach. Beyond that it’s fuzzier than I would argue in any direction.
That’s all fair, but if you accept the premise that Harbaugh is a 9-3ish type coach with a hard ceiling of “not a great coach”, his volatility and propensity to leave after a few years is a *feature*, not a bug – and, conversely, Kelly’s stability (at a lower level of results, too) is a bug, not a feature. I’d rather be on an exciting rollercoaster for a few years than in The Gray Zone.
Plus, it’s not the fans who have to personally deal with the weirdness; I feel sympathy for the higher-ups at Stanford/SF who had to try to keep him relatively in check – because, as you say, he certainly seems to be a loon – but that’s not really the fans’ problem. So I don’t really view that as a major issue from my personal fan perspective.
I think it’s a fan issue in that coaching turnover is extremely risky – I’d appreciate the guy’s work in a short window, but flaming out in 3-4 years increases the chance that you’re going to get some bum in who will suck for the next few years. I’m sure examples jump into your mind.
Some more food for thought on the gray zone, as it were – Harbaugh’s Power 5 win percentage is .640 (57-32). Certainly he inherited a Stanford program that was a mess and turned it around pretty quickly, and he deserves credit for that, but the number is what it is. His best seasons were 12-1 (Stanford 2010), 10-3 (Michigan 2015), and 10-3 (Michigan 2016), meaning he has three 10+ win seasons out of seven. Kelly’s Power 5 win percentage is .676 (69-33, because F the NCAA); his best regular seasons were 12-1, 10-3, and 10-3. So he has three 10+ win seasons out of eight. For both guys, one of those 10-3’s is a 9-3 regular season with a bowl win and one is a 10-2 regular season with a bowl loss.
I don’t say this to prove that Kelly is better than Harbaugh. As alluded to above, Harbaugh inherited a far less healthy program in 2007 than Kelly did in 2010, and he deserves credit for turning Stanford around. I also don’t think Harbaugh would have a 4-8 season at this level of program. I’m just saying, when we’re talking about the level of results, let’s look at what the results actually have been. Harbaugh isn’t that much less gray than Kelly.
Another thought on the line shift: It might have nothing to do with injuries at all. I don’t think Tarik Black would swing the line 2.5 points by himself. And as far as we know right now Rashan Gary is playing, so I doubt that affected anything.
With a hat tip to 18S contributor NDZibby for the gaming juice, it’s quite possible that serious money just started coming in on these games, and the sharps saw that line as a bargain.
Yep, it’s got to be a shift because of big money already laid down and now books want to entice more play late on Michigan to even it out and ensure they make the money on the result regardless of which team wins (which invariably, they will).
On the topic of Vegas, I heard recently the only NFL season bet that they’re not balanced on out of all the over/unders on wins, division championships, and Super Bowl winner is the Browns to win the Super Bowl. So if you don’t like those nasty sports books have fun being a Browns fan this year.
Nah, other way around — Limits were fairly low (for a big bettor…not you or I) up until this weekend. Limits typically go up the week of the game and then up again during the final hours before the game. It also takes (relatively) way less money early in those cycles (right after lines post or limits raise) to move lines.
The line move timed up with a (likely) limit raise on Sunday night. I tend to think bigger bettors started getting down once limit went up and the majority of them will be on the Irish (or at least like the Irish as a dog…)
You guys think we’re gonna pull off this greenout? I predict it will be heavily speckled with blue, white, gold or whatever, and there will be big globs of maize.
Of course we’re not going to pull off the green out. ND has a horrible understanding of their fanbase if they think a lot of the long time STH boomers are on twitter reading up on the latest ND football hashtags.
I predict it’ll be about as successful as every other effort to do something similar at ND. Meaning the student section will be about 80% bought in and the rest of the stadium will be about 5% bought in.
Agreed. But no one has bought in fully. How is the football program going to promote “Irish wear green” when they have said the Irish football team is planning on…wearing blue.
The whole thing is a bit silly but I guess if it helps pump up students then at least that’s something.
If they ever want this to work they need to just do what NBA teams do, up the ticket price $1-2 and have super cheap t-shirts made and at every seat for people to just pull on over whatever they wore to the game.
My biggest hope is honestly just that they don’t spend a lot of time talking about it on NBC. It will be painfully obvious that it’s anything but a “green out” when they do over head shots, so I hope it’s just allowed to quietly fizzle.
I’m betting they hand out green pom-poms as you go in, or have them sitting on the seats.
I’m picturing (dreading?) ND’s defensive line beating up on Michigan’s offensive line only to see Patterson be super slippery and get off some ducks before eventually being hit. Those ducks repeatedly, impossibly, infuriatingly land in a receiver’s hands while the secondary is just barely out of reach of the ball (I’m thinking 2015 Virginia, with an obviously superior secondary that somehow can’t quite make a great play for most of the game.)
All that said, I think ND will have four sacks in the game they’ll hit Patterson several more times. Eventually, one of those ducks lands in a cornerback or even a safety’s hands (Imagine that!) and that’s the big difference in a super close game that Notre Dame wins on a last-second field goal.
Wimbush will look…ok. His performance will leave us feeling in limbo once again, but at least he doesn’t look atrocious against a stellar defense. He does enough with his legs to keep the Irish in the game and eventually finds a few openings for 20-yard passes that he hits.
I agree with Eric that the running backs will feel quite ‘meh’ after this game. But they’ll have a few good, timely plays that help out.
17-14 Notre Dame
ps The Green Out fails miserably except in the student section, because of course it does.
Prediction: ND 20, Michigan 16. Two touchdown passes for Wimbush and the defense has a couple of holds in the redzone forcing field goals. After the game people predisposed toward optimism are optimistic and those predisposed toward pessimism are pessimistic.
I thought last year that Miami was heading into a buzzsaw (41-8). I thought in 2003 that we’d have a close low scoring game against scUM (38-0). I thought we’d be lucky to win a close one in Norman in 2012 (30-13). I think we’re going to lose a close, low-scoring game this week.
…So, I’m calling ND 38-Michigan 14.
Eric, I don’t like your gut. Just sayin’. (I get it; but I don’t like it.)
re the over/under for points: I guess Vegas forgot how long it’s been since Michigan scored against ND.
Michigan clearly has a very good defense, but do they have elite team speed to keep Wimbush in check and also prevent the long pass? Maybe….
In comparison to Georgia last year, that game was like a neutral site game with Wimbush getting his first meaningful minutes. It was a travesty, but half the crowd was wearing red (including everyone around me). Near the student section, it seemed like an ND game, and on the other side of the field, it seemed like an away game — truly like a neutral field.
I was also blessed to be at ND stadium the last time Michigan took the field (that’s all I can say about it, since they didn’t score). That crowd was amazing! Michigan will be playing in front of a very different crowd than Georgia did. So we should actually have a home-field advantage. It’s painful to even have to analyze this.
Overall, I don’t think Kelly’s disdain and familiarity with Michigan teams should be overlooked in a game with reasonably similar talent. We might even see a couple of trick plays.
Prediction: We win the turnover battle and the scoreboard, while Michigan gains more yards and clings tightly to their participation trophy.
Notre Dame: 23
Michigan 13
Go Irish!
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/24523562/michigan-state-says-cleared-violations-larry-nassar-scandal-ncaa
NCAA comes down with zero penalties for MSU following 20 years of sexual abuse on over 250 student athletes by a member of staff, now convicted of multiple felonies.
Boy good thing a tutor didn’t provide too much help on a couple of papers or they’d really be in trouble!
NCAA can go eat a porcupine.
I’m glad I left the punchline for someone else. I think it reads better this way.
Breaking news banner of doom: ISD reporting Shaun Crawford tore his left ACL on Tuesday at practice. (Previous ACL injury was right knee).
Gutted for him after going through so much and looking good up to this point. Already thin CB group too. Wonder what’s next for them.
Just awful. He’s a great kid who just can’t catch a break. I don’t know how he can come back from this.
Third season ending injury in four seasons. Feel awful for him.
In terms of coming back it’s one of those things that’s totally up to him, because he’s a redshirt junior currently and now a slam dunk case for a 6th year of eligibility (missed all of 2015 with a torn ACL as well). So if he wanted he’d have two years of NCAA eligibility if that is still important to him after he gets past this.
This is what happens the minute you think you have a slam dunk anything relating to the NCAA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dwsqmea6tas
I appreciate that, but he’ll have zero seconds played in two seasons due to major injuries. The breath holding cases that no one can predict are always people who played parts of seasons before going down with injuries.
Rule 30.2
A waiver of the five-year period of eligibility is designed to provide a student-athlete with the opportunity to participate in four seasons of intercollegiate competition within a five-year period. This waiver may be granted, based upon objective evidence, for reasons that are beyond the control of the student athlete or the institution, which deprive the student-athlete of the opportunity to participate for more than one season in his/her sport within the five-year period.
Example: A player who suffered two season ending injuries without having participated in any games during that season.
Yeah, he’s a textbook case, like Avery Sebastian. That said, the history of comebacks for guys with three major leg injuries in four years is, uh, not great.
All kinds of terrible. He’s really an excellent kid, and he deserves better than this.
You don’t have to explain anything to me. I realize it’s a super obvious case. However, it I’m not sure anyone at the NCAA bothers to read their own rules, or even CAN read them for that matter.
Welp.
All these close game or even michigan winning predictions are just baffling. Has everyone forgotten that michigan hasn’t scored on ND in YEARS! Let’s all be realistic for a minute and acknowledge that a 49-0 Irish win is the most likely outcome.
37 to 0 again would be fun too.
My dream scenario is that we’re up 31-0 and score as time expires, and then Kelly kneels on the PAT.
Does the PAT actually occur in your scenario, though?
Not sure, so let’s say we score with 0:01 left just to be safe. The knelt PAT is important, a foregone PAT doesn’t have the same knife twist to it.
I’ll allow it, but watch yourself, counselor.
Heart Prediction:
ND 24 (8 Justin Yoon FGs)
That team we were finally rid of but stupidly decided to play again: Less.
Head Prediction (or just pessimism):
Kinesiology Majors 27
ND 17 (3 Justin Yoon FGs, 1 Justin Yoon fake FG TD and 2 point conversion by Alize Mack, which will be his only scoring catch all year)
*Fewer
Eric, it looks like TOS deleted that 3 part article on why we hate the skunkbears. Can you repost that here tomorrow, or at least before next years game.
Michigan now favored again.