In recent days Notre Dame has received a wave of roster news in addition to losing a pair of assistant coaches in a staff shakeup that’s yet to be finalized. Through the frenzy the Irish defense is in tremendous shape. With the loss–then return–of defensive tackle Jonathan Bonner the team will return 10 of 11 starters as well as the top 20 out of 23 tacklers from the 2016 roster. Even with the loss of Mike Elko to Texas A&M’s greasy money it’s been years since Notre Dame has gone into an off-season fully prepared to field a great defense.
It’s an entirely different world for the Notre Dame offense which at present time is faced with a rebuilding effort unlike any time in the Brian Kelly era. Is this getting enough attention?
On the national level it probably won’t be a big deal. The Irish are returning both quarterbacks, roughly 45% of its rushing and receiving, while 4 offensive linemen come back with starting experience thanks to the rotation at right tackle last fall. I just browsed through several “too early” Top 25 rankings for 2018 and the average take is that Notre Dame faces questions on offense, primarily revolving around the quarterback situation.
I’m here to freak you out about the offense.
Hard Hitting Personnel Losses
Having to replace playmakers typically isn’t an overwhelming concern but 2018 is its own special case. I was interested in looking back at our own 18S list of the team’s Top 25 players from last August and according to our rankings the Irish have lost the 1st (Nelson), 3rd (McGlinchey), 4th (Adams), 5th (St. Brown), 13th (Stepherson), and 21st (Sanders) best players from the offense. Sanders sticks out as a huge whiff but anyway replace him with tight end Durham Smythe who didn’t even make our Top 25 and is moving on, too.
Guarantee a Star
So maybe losing a generational offensive lineman or a leader like Josh Adams isn’t going to make you lose too much sleep. After all, part of replacing guys who leave is having others step up. Plus, let’s look at our Top 25 list from last August because there were an additional 7 players who are coming back for 2018: 6th (Wimbush), Mack (7th), Mustipher (11th), Bars (17th), Claypool (19th), Dexter (20th), and Kraemer (25th).
How underwhelming does that list of players look right now? The two highest rated players arguably fell way short of expectations while only one (Claypool) probably exceeded expectations–just barely. Even worse for the immediate future, was there anyone that didn’t make our Top 25 during the pre-season who played their way into the rankings? I can’t think of anyone who would deserve it. Perhaps Boykin’s game-winning catch propelled him somewhere in the 20’s?
As things stand right now, who would you guarantee is going to be a star on offense next year? That’s a really tough question and I can’t remember a time when you couldn’t pick out at least a for-sure star player or two on offense prior to a season.
Lack of Speed
If you know me I definitely have the need for speed on offense. A huge concern for me is opening up next year with Chase Claypool and Miles Boykin at receiver with Tony Jones in the backfield. I actually think that a more plodding offense that protects the ball and leans on its defense like 2012 could be really effective but it also feels like good getting in the way of great.
We also know that Chip Long wants the offense to move faster on offense and has talked about that being a priority heading into year two of his scheme. That’s useful not just by snapping the ball quickly but by having fast players!
***
Okay, so maybe this is partly just for a hot take in January on my part but I do think there’s enough ingredients for the 2018 offense to be the worst of the Kelly era. I haven’t even brought up the quarterback controversy which has the potential to be explosively bad for the offense.
Perhaps the most frustrating aspect is what began this article. So much of the Kelly era has been both the offense and defense unable to get on the same page running strong together. The defense looks like a 10-win unit but the offense is looking more like a 7-5 unit, in my eyes.
If it’s not time to panic it’s definitely time for the development of numerous new players on offense and a job for the coaching staff that will test their mettle this spring and into the summer.
I’d feel a million times better if Stepherson was back. He and Claypool drop a bunch of passes, but that would be a really solid 1-2 punch at receiver. His speed has the ability to really open things up for the rest of the offense.
I’d also feel much better if Dex had been able to stay healthy all year. He has the ability to be a game changer, but if he can’t get at least 10 touches per game, that’s not too helpful.
We saw a ton of designed QB runs in 2017; I think that’s going to have to increase even more in 2018.
Ooo, I hate being panicked. But maybe I am. Time to leave the red wine for the cognac, in French terms…?
So, first, what’s the deal on Chip Long, is he staying?
Second, who is going to reboot the O-line? It was so much HH’s — I get it we should be able to get a good o-line coach and I get four “starters” back, but chemistry, toughness? Some of that goes with scheme, hence I get the reference to 2012. Honestly, I would take that if we could get it.
Third, can Dexter learn to pass block? This is a serious question.
Fourth – the QBs. Gotta concede… QB controversy never good in ND history, though pre-season competition can be. You have been highly negative on BW’s upside as potentially getting to be a better thrower, based on some historical patterns, I assume, but that has never been clear to me. What is the data base on that?
If you listened to the Irish Illustrated podcast this week, one of the guys (I think Tim Prister?) said that he thought the offense would be better next year. I was shocked, and when he was challenged on it by the other guys on the pod going position group by position group and pointing out that every group will be worse other than (maybe, hopefully, please please please) quarterback, he was like “but year two of the Chip Long offense!” That seems like a pretty thin reed to be out on to me.
Next year is likely to have a lot of games in the style of the bowl game. Except some games probably won’t get to 38 total points. I wonder what the over/under would be in the Michigan game if Shea Patterson can’t play.
Maybe he was figuring we’d lead the NCAA in ridiculous, 55 yard, one-handed, touchdown receptions?
Note to self: from now on, whatever Tim Prister says, think the opposite.
I must’ve missed that podcast, did he really say that!???
I listened two days ago, so could be misrepresenting, but my recollection is that not only did he say it but he doesn’t back off on it when challenged.
No, he most definitely said that.
I think it was the II Recruiting podcast and Prister wasn’t on it – maybe it was Sampson? I didn’t hear him saying the the offense would be better – it was something along the lines of being cleaner. Basically basing it on it being year two of Long’s offense and the expected jump in familiarity across the roster, especially the QBs.
Or maybe Prister said it in the previous II Insider a couple days before that, I don’t remember.
It was from the podcast earlier in the week
Will we really be worse in every position group? On offense, the left side will be worse but the right side will be a year older/better. TE could be better. I’m sorry but EQ is not a loss. Stepherson only played for like 4 games so I don’t really see him as a loss. Lot of young guys to like plus Boykin and Claypool, both of whom are plenty fast. I mean really those two are plenty fast for college, especially for their size. RB will be worse because no Josh Adams or depth, but Dexter brings a lot of playmaking ability, as does Wimbush if he turns out to be the man. The main things I think are whether Wimbush can be QB1, if so what the chemistry level will be with the WRs, and how much of a step back the OL will take. There’s plenty of talent up front. And I don’t know, out OL has no showed for pretty much every big game of the Kelly era, so I think this OL, like the others will be fine until we play a top 5-ish front 7.
They will have speed, they will just need to actually, you know, use it. Tony Jones Jr. might not cut it but you know who is a fast and dynamic runner? That guy who put up 9.2 yards/carry but only got 39 carries. If they don’t get out of their own way and give their best back the ball enough, that’s on them. (Flashbacks to Cam McDaniel getting more carries than more talented backs)
Lenzy is fast, track star, elite speed but as a true freshmen how big a part of the offense will he get the chance to be?
The offense certainly a big unknown though, and it definitely looks pretty cloudy. Can Wimbush grow? If not the offense is probably doomed no matter what. Can Alize Mack be anything close to the hype? If so, that’s an exciting weapon, but 3 years has taught us not to hold our breath on that. Are we going to get to see anything from McKinley? Michael Young?
Interesting challenge for Long, like you mentioned it’s more a plodding offense next year, though I think the QB running ability is a big element that will help that gets dismissed in the “worst case scenario” type of outlooks. If Wimbush pitches in 700/10+ TD again, that’s obviously a big weapon that will help stretch defenses.
Hopefully “safe” big targets like Claypool, Wright, Boykin will be able to help the QB. It doesn’t look like they’ll have much explosiva at all, but hopefully they can still be effective. And, hey, get anyone in the open field and it’s not exactly like they can’t make big plays (obviously see Boykin, LSU play).
Despite offensive personnel, the questions and lack of ability at QB scares me the most. In hindsight, it should have been as scary last year at this time if we knew Wimbush was a 50% thrower but at least the o-line+Adams gives a lot of comfort that isn’t quite the same.
re: Mack, I wonder if that matters if he makes the leap? What if Wright and Kmet really make the leap that Mack never did and one of them (or both) supplant him next season?
The ceiling for Mack, at least as far as receiving goes, seems to be slightly higher than those two guys, just because of how fast he is for a guy his size. I agree that that Wright and Kmet are nearly as likely to make an impact next year, and Mack might even have a lower overall ceiling due to his blocking (although he has seemed to improve there). But man, it would be nice if he gets over his drops, because we’re going to be sorely lacking guys who can stretch the field. He could be huge down the seem.
Weak passing game? Atheltic QBs?
Time to embrace the triple option, I’m afraid. #whoneedsfullbacks?
This, but unironically
My worries are probably 1) offensive line, 2) WR, 3) QB.
I won’t lie, my first reaction to the “lack of playmakers” concern (which I agree with) is that Wimbush is one of the few guys that can provide that. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not worth it if he can’t make the right reads or throw, but that’s where the offseason provides a glimmer of hope. I’ve wondered about this before, but I wonder if some virtual reality type of film sessions (which folks slobbered over Stanford starting to use a few years back with Hogan) could accelerate his learning curve.
Anyway, although O-Line is talented, I flashback to 2016 when despite losing Stanley and Martin everyone assumed we’d be fine with young Glinch and Nelson and things were decidedly not great. And in this case, the returning guys (Mustipher, Bars, Hainsey, Kraemer), while solid / high upside, are not probably as proven as Mike and Q were at that point.
At WR I feel a little better about because at least the guys like Boykin and Claypool are veterans (unlike 2016, when it was Torii Hunter and a bunch of young guys). These guys also block pretty well, which is nice and underrated – that also felt like a huge absence from 2015-16 when Brown/Robinson/Fuller left, those guys put a ton of pride/effort into helping there.
Nelson, McGlinchey, Adams, ESB, Stepherson, Sanders, Holmes, McIntosh, and Heistand……….gone. Wimbush can’t pass, Williams can’t block, Mack can’t catch, our potentially best receiver doesn’t even go to the school yet, I’m faster than Tony Jones Jr., and there is zero percent chance that our O-line will be as good as this past year.
I like it. We’ll have the element of surprise
Question: If you’re Chip Long and your dream school (which also happens to be the best college football school in the galaxy and whose last bazillion coordinators seem to have all gone on to head coaching jobs or the NFL) came calling with some serious cash, would you come back to this group?
What was that wildcat formation ND used to run with Jonas Gray? The leprechaun or something like that? Let’s run that again……like, all the time. Also, is Jonas Gray out of eligibility?
Chip Long would almost certainly take *less* money to go coordinate at Alabama, as should any reasonable person. Not that he would have to. If he is not the Alabama OC next year or ever, it’s because Saban didn’t actually want him.
Yeah, Long’s climbing the ladder fast. 1 year at Memphis, showed no loyalty and took a better job at ND. Gotta think especially as an Alabama guy if he can take another step after 1 year he’s going to do it. Can’t really knock it, just how coordinator jobs are. One way or another, Long probably isn’t going to be ND OC for very…um long.
Well, he’s coming back. Apparently Bama wanted him to co-OC with Locksley, so it would have been a step down.
Chip Long is just afraid of getting punched.
Not interested in the Wild Leprechaun unless Louis Nix is prominently involved.
I can’t remember, was the wildcat we ran with Jonas Gray significantly different than the wildcat we ran this year with Brandon Wimbush?
Where could the playmakers come from?
Dexter – needs to stay healthy (and wow with 3 RBs he better stay healthy)
Wimbush
some freshmen: Austin, Lenzy
TE: does Mack, or Wright/Kmet become a player?
We are putting a lot of hope it seems for those freshmen WRs to come in and make a difference.
Well there’s Michael Young, who had that TD catch in the bowl game. Also, Armstrong was a pretty high 4*. Boykin of course acquitted himself very well in the bowl game.
Armstrong was a consensus 3-star; you’re probably thinking of McKinley who was a mid-high 4-star.
Yes, I was.
Kelly went out of his way to compare Austin to Golden Tate, but when you look at it Tate had only 6 receptions in his freshman season. (Then again, it came in the year we don’t talk about [07] so maybe not worth a lot).
Regardless though I did some research and since Michael Floyd in ’08, only 2 true freshmen has more than 10 receptions in the Kelly era. TJ Jones with 23, and ironically Kevin Stepherson with 25. Of all the great WR’s, none have really been on the field that much as true freshmen. *Unless of course my scan of the data missed someone, in which case, whoops! I thought via memory, Corey Robinson chipped in a lot as a frosh, but he only had 9 receptions that year, for instance.
You would think maybe one of Austin/Lenzy should get some touches if they live up to the billing and since the WR depth chart isn’t great. But it seems like a longshot that they’re in the 10-25 reception range and even that will be exceeding some other young great players, so my thought is to temper expectations that even though skilled, that the answer lies in a freshman.
The answer lies in the TE (Wright, Kmet, Mack) and hoping the big WR’s (Claypool, Boykin) can progress. That’s not a great hope, and the worries about this offense is legit from that perspective…Even before taking into account it’s unknown who the QB will be and how consistently he will deliver accurate passes.
Other way to look at this is how would we fill out our pre-season Top 25 players right now? The one thing is some offensive players will be rated high just because someone has to get the ball.
Love, Coney, Tranquill, and Tillery I’m assuming are stone cold locks for the top 4, after that things actually get a little murky for the defenders but there’s going to be a lot of projection for most of the offensive guys.
To be fair, the next two guys are probably Mustipher and Bars… but also if Mustipher and Bars are the 5th and 6th best guys on your team, well, that’s probably not a playoff team.
https://twitter.com/PeteSampson_/status/954054103772082179
Dang. That’s… not great. Note his reply that Stanford has 5 so, like, we could be doing better. Of course, that and the thrust of this post are related.
It’s not great, but I think it overstates recruiting as a problem (and if the goal is a championship, there’s likely to be a talent disadvantage there for the forseeable future with the programs listed). Obviously having more instant impact guys helps, but Clemson’s overall % of blue chips has been similar to ND until the last couple of classes, and teams with similar or worse levels of talent have made the playoff (Oklahoma, Michigan State, Oregon, Washington).
Just goes to show that not all blue-chips are created equal and while we’ve gotten close to the same % as some top programs we haven’t come close with those elite players which would mean we can’t be close in terms of % blue-chip we’d have to be a step or two higher to make up for the lack of elite players.
While ND may have only recruited 1 top 40 guy in the last 5 classes it’s also true that next year’s offense will have 9 guys rated .96 or higher. Granted two of those are QBs, but three are on the OL. It isn’t a negative to say the OL will take a step back next year…they won the Moore award this year there isn’t much more upside. Two of the three .96 OL already have a lot of playing time under their belts and there are 4 other 4* OL (assuming Byrne doesn’t come back, but he never really lived up to his rating). The running game will take a step back with the reshuffled line and fewer bodies at RB, but the ground attack was also at multi-decade highs. This is still an offense that can put up 30+ ppg. Coupled with a defense that is ready to take another step forward it isn’t unreasonable to expect another 10 win season.
nd09hls12,
Curious as to your thoughts on why this is the case. It was my impression that Kelly has employed decent recruiters, with the exception of BVG. Is that not the case? Are we not getting the best of the best because South Bend is cold, yada yada? (Academics out of it because ….Stanford). Or are Kelly and his staff are just mediocre recruiters? Or both?
First, to attack an idea that you definitely did not present, but I suspect some on this board might be initially inclined to believe: we definitely can be doing better. From 2006-2009, Weis got 4, 2, 2, 3, and 1 top-50 offensive ‘croots, and there are a number of other guys in 50-75 range after that.
As to why our numbers are not to that level:
– First and foremost, I think the “BK, offensive guru/QB whisperer” mythology is basically gone, and recruits and HS coaches may have been onto it before most of the rest of the world caught on.
– I don’t know a ton about recruiting – so anyone should feel free to correct me on this – but my sense is that BK hasn’t focused on that as much as the obsessive coaches (the Saban/Meyerses of the world), at least until recently. We have had some good recruiting assistants, but they tend to get snatched up (e.g., Alford). I’m not sure if we’ve had any excellent recruiting assistants – but, perhaps excellent recruiting assistants become excellent recruiting assistants via bagmen, so maybe that’s not the worst thing in the world assuming we’re not comfortable with that.
– Competition for smart recruits is higher. I think Stanford’s success is leading them to get guys who, in an alternative universe where Stanford still stunk, would be going to Notre Dame.
– Competition for midwest recruits is higher. Meyer+Harbaugh is tough to deal with. They both have reputations as offensive gurus (whether or not deserved in Harbaugh’s case), unlike BK (see comment #1).
Where it seems to me that we should be doing much better than we have been doing is California and Texas. The top programs there have mostly been in a down cycle, but it seems like we haven’t been plucking the top talent there. By contrast, for example, Stanford went into Texas and got a top-10 tackle last year.
Amen to “we definitely can be doing better”. Although it must be said that recruiting is more balanced on offense and defense with Kelly and overall performance is better. There are many great recruiters who are not great coaches (see early career Lane Kiffin, for example).
Yes, Urban obsesses about getting the best players. He listed that as the #1, #2, and #3 keys to success in a conversation with sports illustrated.
Agree with the alternate universe Stanford story. Once Shaw goes, I think they’ll mean revert. If you think that’s unlikely, look at Oregon.
Pretty much agree with you on everything – except for canning Swarbrick. But odds are – sadly – we’ll be revisiting that next year.
This is great. Makes sense. Bummer, but makes sense. Thanks, man.
Great read Eric, thanks. I just can’t get too worked up about ND having a horrible offense. As far as replacing offensive players goes, they do that every year and usually do just fine with it. (Nelson is a once in a lifetime kind of guy in my opinion and is irreplaceable. But he plays guard, ND has plenty of bodies to at least plug that hole.) As for the rest of them, ND has recruited offensive talent pretty well under BK, I’m fairly confident those bodies will average out.
I think of Georgia as an 11 win unit defensively with an 8 or 9 win offense (Not that I think ND’s defensive roster is on the same level with GA’s.) but it worked out pretty well for GA. I would be thrilled with a year like GA.
The QB situation is concerning, but BK has fielded pretty good offensive teams during his tenure.
To the point of the Sampson link I just posted, UGA has the following top-50 offensive recruits since the class of 2014 (the seniors on last year’s team) who chipped in this past year:
Sony Michel
Nick Chubb
Terry Godwin
Jacob Eason
Mecole Hardiman
Issac Nauta
D’Andre Swift
Jake Fromm
They also have two top-50 offensive linemen from last year’s class who I’m too lazy to look up to see if they played.
Notre Dame has the following top-50 offensive recruits since 2014:
Brandon Wimbush
Tommy Kraemer
That’s it, that’s the list. And that doesn’t even include this year’s class, where UGA has 4 top-50 offensive players (including two top-10 guys) and ND has zero.
There’s no good reason to think our offense will be as good next year as UGA’s was this year. If their offense was an 8 or 9 win offense last year, ours is a 6 win offense this year.
In what year, under Kelly, has ND fielded a 6 win offense? I guess you could reference the dreaded 4-8 team, but that was mostly defense in my opinion. I think there is merit to it being the 2nd year of Long’s offense. Not enough to overcome an absolute lack of talent, but I don’t think ND is in that category.
A new O-line coach is concerning, but there is plenty of talent there for a solid O-line. The QB will be the big question, but you just tailor the offense to whichever guy it is.
I didn’t say it was a 6 win offense, I just said that their offense last year would be the offense of a team that’s about 2 wins worse than UGA’s offense was. To be more precise, my view is that they had a 12-win defense and a 9-10 win offense last year, and we’ll probably have a 7-8 win offense this year and hopefully an 11ish win defense.
They had some real playmakers, including two senior running backs who each are (much) better players at their position than we will have for any position on offense next year. Hardiman is a better version of Lenzy, we have no analogue to Swift, we could only hope that Jurkovec is as good as Fromm, none of our receivers are as good as Godwin now that Stepherson is out of the building, and that’s only naming guys from the list above (e.g., doesn’t include UGA’s best WR). UGA’s 2017 offense will be at least an order of magnitude better than our 2018 offense.
We’ll have to see I guess. I don’t think peronel/ talent is nearly as cut and dry as you make it out to be.
My point was that we could compensate for a less proficient offense with a more effective defense. Kind of the same formula Alabama has used to win what 5 or 6 championships over the past decade?
Alabama has been the No. 1 defense by S&P for 3 straight years, though. That’s a really difficult formula to copy!
It is, if you’re talking championship. If you’re talking about pulling off back to back 10 win seasons, maybe not so much. I don’t necessarily think we can win a championship this year, but 10 wins would be a huge boost for this program.
“Go that way really fast. If anything gets in your way, turn”
I think you can do more with less though on offense compared to defense….the top 10 offenses per S&P+ last season in order were Oklahoma (similar to ND in terms of lots of blue chips but lack of 5* talent), UCF (no blue chips), Oklahoma State (less top talent than ND), Memphis, Louisville, FAU, Ohio State (more talent!), Arizona, Ole Miss, and Penn State. So maybe one team with more ELITE talent, a couple similar, and seven less talented.
Flip the lens to defense and you go Bama (all the 5-stars), Clemson (same), Wisconsin, Michigan State, Washington, Auburn (not listed in Sampson’s tweet but more 5* talent), Wyoming, OSU, VT, Michigan, and UGA at 11 (should be higher).
Long story short, if Chip Long is really good, he can either create things schematically or utilize the talent on hand to his advantage despite some gaps and a lack of plus-plus talent.
That’s a good point, but a counter to that, without looking them up, I could name the QBs at all of those schools other than Memphis and FAU off the top of my head, and they’re good at worst, very good on average, and excellent in a few instances. It’s, uh, unclear that ND has or will have a good quarterback on the roster for the 2018 season.
Yep, valid point there. I think that’s how Oklahoma got into the mix. A great QB can compensate for all kinds of holes.
The change since the bowl game that has me most worried, is the lack of depth at RB. I just don’t think 3 RBs , one being a true freshman and another having so much trouble seeing the field last year, bodes well for 2018.
What hasn’t changed is, it’s still going to come down to QB play. Can the QB can make the plays that are there and not turn the ball over. If so that might be enough, if not…eeek!
There has *got* to be some 2019 5-star running back who looks at the depth chart and sees an opportunity, no? If we don’t flip that GaTech kid (who himself is a very low 3-star and probably not a threat to a hypothetical 5-star) and Holmes and McIntosh really aren’t getting a chance to be back, that will just leave Smith and Jones going into spring 2019. Yeesh.
Unfortunately, after all this, I’m guessing our odds with McIntosh’s little brother went from slim to none.
Any chance for a grad transfer from somewhere? Hearing any rumors?
I think if the QB situation gets straightened out, it could be a big year but that’s a big if. I am not so sure Sanders was a big whiff. I would put it in the headscratching decision box along with Dexter, although Dexter does have blocking issues.
I’m not too worried yet. If we are bad once the games start, then I’ll let myself freak out.
I suspect someone from the TE group will emerge. I think the OL should be solid. I hope we get >50% completion pct. from the QB position.
Re: only having three RBs. I am not too worried. Literally three seasons ago, we had an RB depth chart of a converted safety/WR who had never played RB before and two freshmen, one of whom had a bad injury history. And it worked out more than fine.