With National Signing Day right around the corner the dust is beginning to settle as we are setting our sights on the 2017 football season. Spring ball is almost here, new recruits are already on campus, and the head coach remains in place.
Despite some wild and wacky rumors following the end of the 2016 football season it is as Jack Swarbrick said it would be: Brian Kelly will be the Irish coach for 2017.
South Bend Renovation
As few as 3 weeks ago I was very confident that 2017 would be Brian Kelly’s last season at Notre Dame. I figured we’d see a little bit of coaching turnover and a solid defensive coordinator hired but nothing so bold as to upset the apple cart in either direction, both for a complete rejuvenation or stubborn insistence on keeping things the same. Just a nice bit of change and that’s it.
Now, with an (almost) brand new coaching staff and revamped strength program you have to wonder what exactly the future holds for Kelly and the Irish.
To be clear, I’m not sure the renovation affects my belief in things really changing dramatically on the field. I could just as soon envision another stumbling season as much as a renewed sense of glory and 10+ wins. I’d bet Elko does some good things straight out of the gate but I’m not jumping on the strength & conditioning bandwagon in the least bit.
However, the effort of this rebuild heading into a coach’s 8th year is really interesting. The immediate reaction is this isn’t just a one-year fix for Brian Kelly. Admittedly, that’s not something I was prepared to digest this off-season and now I’m not so sure this will be Kelly’s final season in South Bend.
Money & Buyouts
One rumor over the past couple months was that Notre Dame was willing to part ways with Brian Kelly but just couldn’t match up a strong enough candidate in comparison to the buyout money needed to get rid of the current coach.
Kelly’s current deal runs through 2021. With any buyout moving forward an extra year is always going to help the money you’ll inevitably be forced to pay out, and depending on if the search was real, one could understand Notre Dame’s motives in sticking with Kelly another season. Following 4-8 that’s a little more difficult to swallow, but I imagine many weren’t moved from their mid-fall belief that with the recent extension handed out it was wise to give Kelly 2017 as a final proving ground.
Yet, with this overhaul of the program—and countless new multi-year contracts dished out to assistants—this has the look and feel of a buyout for Kelly that drops down in price enormously following the 2018 season. I have no idea if that’s true but it’s the first thing that popped into my head once the coaching staff welcomed so many new faces.
If this is true it’s really scary. That could mean Notre Dame is prepared to dig its heels in (short of another complete disaster season) no matter what. This kind of happened after 2008 but it was far more understandable for a brand new athletic director and following a coach’s 4th season. Kelly is twice as far along and welcomes far more worn out.
The angel on one side says this is just a last ditch effort by Notre Dame to see if Kelly can catch magic in a bottle again and if not they’re entirely willing to eat 4 negotiated years of his remaining contract plus the aftershock money of all the assistants who would be here only one season. The devil on the other side is saying this is a 2-year plan and the bar is going to be set a lot lower than you believe for the 2017 season.
Soft Landing, Hard No
One thing I’m certain isn’t going to happen is the rumor that Brian Kelly wanted out of Notre Dame and the school was actively trying to help him find another job to avoid paying him a buyout.
No way on so many levels.
First, this kind of maneuvering is practically unprecedented at this level of college football. Second, it requires a level of understanding that seems entirely untenable.
“Hey, I don’t like it here wanna help me find another job?” “Yeah, cool totally understand and we’ll save on your buyout.” “No doubt, and if we can’t find me a suitable new job I’ll just stay here for a couple more years anyway.”
Third, and most importantly, such a neat and tidy severing of a relationship is entirely too good to be true. It seems like it could work if you suspend parts of reality but put together as a whole I find that complete fantasy.
What if Kelly does well in 2017 and leaves for another job, of his own accord, even something that is close to a lateral move? I just don’t see it. Staying at Notre Dame, getting fired, or possibly a retirement. Those are the realistic options after next season.
Overcoming 4-8
I’ve felt very strongly for a number of years that Kelly’s tenure would:
1) Be the Great Gray Area
2) End in a really bad way
Once upon a time it wasn’t too difficult to see that Kelly was going to carve out a good but not elite career in South Bend. With that came a volatile and explosive situation–the purgatory of being able to keep his job but with the natives getting more and more restless with each passing season.
Going 4-8 completely blew up the Great Gray Area–and as much as I think it’s unfair to label most of the post-2012 era as bad–there hasn’t been enough good times over the past 4 years to feel great about the current situation.
Kelly was different because he was bucking so many traditional norms at Notre Dame. That was part of the Gray Area, you couldn’t easily fit him into a box (failed coach or let’s build him a statue coach) so easily. Heading into 2017, he’ll face perhaps his biggest test in the face of tradition in South Bend. No Irish coach has overcome a really bad year. No coach has survived the “lots of bad things have been laid bare before our eyes” season and rebounded to find success.
I think deep down a lot of people instinctively know this, or especially feel this. Even with the rebuilt coaching staff I wouldn’t underestimate how quickly things may turn south quickly next fall. I’m talking just one loss (looking at you Georgia in week two) and it could get really, really dark before the first road game.
Is that depressing? Maybe, but in times like this it’s wise to remember how quickly things can change in college football. It may seem like the Irish are yet again wandering in the wilderness, however, the program went 3-9 while being blown off the field numerous times only to reach the National Title Game 5 years later. Lots of things are possible in college football and change is always around the corner.
Some great perspective Eric. I wonder what the impact of the 4-8 season really will be for Kelly. Does he look at a bunch of close losses and think “we’re not as far away as it looks” or feel the same sense of urgency the majority of the fan base does? I think BK’s perceived inability to be accountable / admit mistakes is overstated, but there’s some underlying truth in that at least to the media, there’s usually a focus on execution and mentality versus scheme and adjustments. I’m not sure if that’s BK being a politician and not seeing a good reason to tip his hand on the latter aspects or indicative of stubbornness and his true feelings.
I’m hopeful there will be some dramatic change – if it works, great, if not, we get change. For a while it looked like BK would be doubling down on himself and how he’d like to run the offense, then you find out he has handed off playcalling to Long. Naming captains in December (including one from WOPU) was an interesting move. It’s probably a thin line between desperation gambles and a needed overhaul in a lot of these areas (I’d throw S&C in there too), and I don’t think we’ll really know until September how they’ll play out. Even a sluggish first half in the home opener against Temple and things could get really uncomfortable really quickly.
Great write-up! I agree with the uneasiness of not knowing which direction this coming season will go. Some potential reasons why this season might blow-up badly:
(1) Long’s offense might fall flat (or be a notch below BK’s offense)
(2) Players may tune out BK after last year’s bad season
(3) Lack of chemistry among new coaches
(4) Ineffective d-line
(5) Random factors (arrest before season, suspension for grades, injury bug strikes again)
(6) Some tough games (Georgia, USC, Stanford, Michigan St – should we throw Miami FL and Navy in there too?)
The optimist in me hopes that Long’s offense works well with ND’s current talent, the players buy in (with the help of captains’ leadership), the coaches work well, and some d-line players make big jumps (or improve because of Elko’s system). Based on the close losses last year, my impression is that the team was not as bad as the record; however, a tougher schedule this year may mean something in the range of 7 to 9 wins.
Jeremy CrabtreeRecruitingNation
A point of clarification on NCAA Proposal 2016-16: Division I Council chair Jim Phillips confirmed when the proposal passes — as it is expected to do in April vote — sections of it such as the 10th assistant coach, the individuals associated with a prospect rule and satellite camp ban will be effectively immediately. Other parts of the proposal, such as the official visit calendar adjustment and mid-December signing period, would not start until the 2019 recriuting class.
Wonder if this means Rees will be an official coach. Also wonder what it means for most other teams. Do most teams besides Alabama have coaches waiting in the wings to be hired like this at this time of the year?
Just realized this didn’t show up well and is unclear what I was saying and what was in the quote:
Wonder if this means Rees will be an official coach. Also wonder what it means for most other teams. Do most teams besides Alabama have coaches waiting in the wings to be hired like this at this time of the year?
Great article Eric. I guess I’m just the eternal optimist. I’m hoping it’s all good and I love the changes I’m seeing. Then I read Spider-Man’s list of everything that could go wrong. Now I’m back to a healthy “it’ll never work” mindset. Thanks Spider-Man. I’ll just be sitting here waiting for the other shoe to fall now.
Yup, that sleepy first half against Temple looms large.
It may not work, but we have to root for it to work. that is what fans do.
As the next coach series showed, there is no clear choice to replace Kelly, we would likely end up with someone with a resume very similar to Kelly’s. Thus, all the inherent risk in hiring.
If Kelly can get back to 9 wins next year, I am pretty sure he will get a 2018. Perhaps not. Perhaps we need a divorce almost no matter what happens next year. To a very vocal, and relatively small, portion of the fan base, the only thing Kelly could do to benefit ND would be to immolate himself in the Stadium in such a fashion that is destroys the turf field, and requires grass to be put back and makes it impossible to install a jumbotron. Perhaps Crossroads needs to go at the same time too. They are mad that he is even recruiting or made an attempt to hire assistant coaches. A much larger portion of the fan base probably wants him gone if we don’t have a good year.
I think his hiring this winter showed he knew he needed to change. There is something positive to that. No new coach had prior connections to him. He allowed the new DC and OC to bring a coach along with them. I want the changes to be successful, all of Spider-Man’s points are valid though. Kelly and the coaches need to address those points, and I hope they will. It is not their first rodeo (although it would be for Rees).
“It may not work, but we have to root for it to work. that is what fans do.”
Yup.
So Kieth Arnold is out at NBC. I really liked that guy. That was my second favorite site behind this one. I think he turned me onto this site.
Keith Arnold – Saying Goodbye
ND Nation gave him a nice send-off. Stay classy, guys!
I will miss Keith’s writing – before I wandered over to 18stripes, Keith’s columns were my first stop for a sane person’s analysis of ND football. Any chance 18stripes convinces him to write an occasional guest column here (or convinces him to at least join the board conversations here)?
While I think you’re right that the administration is hoping this works for the long haul and is making hires with that in mind, I would hope that nothing short of a 10-win regular season next year will save BK’s job. I suspect anything short of that will keep recruiting in the 15-25 team rankings purgatory (the only reason we won’t fall out of that range after 4-8 this year is because recruiting started so strong; we likely won’t have as much of an early advantage for the 2018 class), which would further hamstring the next coach.
Like DCIrish says, though, we just gotta hope this works. I think we’ll have a pretty good sense of it by the end of September.
I think it is really hard to say what that would mean for recruiting and such. All of the new coaches have reputations as great recruiters. BVG was a bad recruiter not sure about Gilmore. Thus, we should have some improvement there no matter what.
I would rather a 10 win season too, and I am not quibbling, but that is the problem with numerical certainty. One bad break in one game could turn a 10 win season into a 9 win season. While the NDNation folks don’t want to think about it, on some levels Swarbrick has to evaluate on more than 9 or 10 0r 11 wins. 4, 5 or 6 makes it easy obviously. Also, to the extent the injury bug bites that could change the process. If Wimbush goes down against Temple, God forbid, that certainly changes the win expectation.
The problem runs the other way too. I don’t remember if it was in an article here or elsewhere, but I remember reading on that on an advanced metric basis, our statistics would have predicted a 7.5 win season, or 3.5 wins better than we had. Suppose we have the precisely same statistical season, but manage to win 11 games. 2016 and 2017 would basically be outliers around the performance mean. I can’t imagine Swarbrick would fire Kelly in that scenario, but essentially, other than breaks, the two seasons are the same and 7.5 win seasons should not be acceptable in years 7 and 8 of a coaching program.
As someone who has done it, I have always hated making the decision to fire someone. Sometimes it has to be done for the good of the organization, sometimes for the good of the target (at least in what I do). I don’t envy Swarbrick having to make that decision.
As a very very minor quibble, the final 2016 S&P+ numbers had ND’s expected wins at 7.2 (I think prior to bowls it was 7.5). I totally take the point that, with the same performance but getting as ridiculously lucky next year as ridiculously unlucky we were this year, that’d be a 10-win team. The difference, though, is that a 10-win team with this new coaching staff can be sold as genuinely trending in the right direction, and I suspect 10 wins will put us ahead of much of our recruiting competition next year (e.g., I don’t see Michigan or Stanford getting to 10 in the regular season with what they lose). 8 or 9 wins, even with the same S&P+ as a lucky 10-win team, will likely lead to plenty of stirring among the fan base (including, almost assuredly, from myself), which will get into the “BK still on the hot seat” talk, which will inevitably negatively affect recruiting. It’d just be stringing things along.
EDIT: That is 7.2 expected wins against our fairly weak schedule from last year. I would anticipate our schedule will be more difficult next year, so the same level of performance might lead to fewer expected wins.
I agree that a 10 win team, even one that is ridiculously lucky, Kelly keeps his job (perhaps in the absence of the two losses being Navy and BC).
I also agree that Kelly’s seat is volcanically hot right now. A 10 win season would take the temperature down to hot, I think he would need another 10 win season to get it back to normal. I think that is the greatest problem with an 8 or 9 win season. Even if it is an unlucky 8 or 9 win season. Perception may overtake reality. There was a post on NDNation a couple of weeks ago that made me laugh out loud. One of the usual posters said the board would be much more negative if there was a loss to Temple or BC in September. I could not even imagine what that would look like.
You may be right on S&P+, but I thought it corrected for schedule strength. I just don’t know. Perhaps the person who used the stat knows.
S&P+’s 2nd order wins (explanation here – http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/12/16/7398531/college-football-ratings-second-order-wins and here – http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2015/1/26/7917313/second-order-wins-college-football) is the relevant stat. The second link includes the following:
So it does reflect schedule strength (that’s why Western Michigan has a 2nd order win rank of 11.7 even though they finished 9 spots lower in S&P+ than ND, whose 2nd order wins was 7.2).
Other than that, I think we’re on the same page. I really can’t imagine he would survive any 8-win season (it’d take like very close losses, at least one of which we get somehow screwed out of winning), but I think 9 wins will keep his job. I just don’t think that’d be good for the program.
Also, it’s not clear the new coaches are a significant improvement over the old, at least according to the good folks on the Irish Illustrated podcast. Denbrock was a good recruiter, Sanford was a great recruiter, Gilmore was pretty good. BVG was basically a non-factor, so going to Elko is an unambiguous improvement there. But, overall, I wouldn’t count on the coaching changes to lead to significant improvement by itself. It’s going to come down to them getting a bunch of wins next year.
I think the most significant upgrade is Elko. Booker was also good. Polian is a proven great recruiter at ND, which has to count as an upgrade too. Long and Alexander have both been RCs so that should also count for something. I think the clearest upgrades are Elko over BVG and Polian. The rest are probably a wash.
All that said, I agree with you that without the wins, and resultant stability, even great recruiters will have problems.
To get back to where Kelly’s seat is no longer hot (say top 15 the next two years), the recruiting doesn’t really need to improve. The coaching of the recruits we get, however, is what needed to improve. So I’m not particularly worried about the recruiting in that regard.
Now, if the goal is to get back to a consistent playoff contender (which I think is most people’s long term goal), then yes, the recruiting needs to improve. But in the short term, the Xs & Os upgrades from the coaches should theoretically outweigh any potential recruiting downgrades. And for Kelly to survive as coach, he desperately needed short term upgrades.
Great point. Totally agree.
“I’m not jumping on the strength & conditioning bandwagon in the least bit.”
E, care to expand on this comment?? The guy seems to have a good resume. Are some predicting a prodigious change?
I just don’t think it’s that big of a deal. But I’m jaded by the vicious cycle (new S&C guy is awesome!) that we’ve experienced only to see these hires thrown in the trash heap a few years down the road.
That’s about what I figured.
It’s hard for me to believe that Paul Longo didn’t stay up on latest techniques and forgot how to run a S&C program. That said the guys at II, on a podcast, implied that the ND players didn’t seem to be fired up about the weight room. Prister as I recall, said it was strange for a football team to have that attitude. Perhaps Longo’s approach at motivation wore thin. I remember when Longo first arrived and “Longo beach” was going to transform the ND players. “Everybody is all in” was the mantra. Evidently something changed. Maybe a new voice was needed.
I’m okay with a new voice. I can see how things can get monotonous under one guy for a while. I think motivation is just as much a function of the head coach and internally from the players themselves, though. It’s just hard for me to see things having a lasting effect if the S&C coach has to motivate to such a huge degree, ya know?
I getch ya. That’s a whole “nuther” issue than bench pressn’ or squats.
Yeah, if Kelly is constantly bringing in his RKGs, they really shouldn’t need a strength coach to be pumping them up every day, right? Agreed, not sold on this being some big upgrade.
At this point I’ll settle for not putting our players in the hospital.
/squints at Oregon…
I get this concern 100%. However, there are a couple points that make me at least wonder if it could make a difference. I recall a couple years ago an article or explanation on the old site about how the rash of injuries, based on their types, would be hard to pin on the S&C program. However, it seems to have remained an issue that has ebbed and flowed since but it still feels worse that it appears for other programs. Could that have made a difference?
Also, this is a naked eye observation without looking back at box scores, but it seems the Irish either lost a good number of fourth quarter leads over the last couple years, or they lost games in which they were trying to keep it close down the stretch – most of these were to teams that would normally be considered inferior in talent. That’s reason to wonder. Not to mention the weight loss along the OL this season.
If nothing else, it’s worth trying something different and apparently now is the time to do that.
Eric replied, but just to +1… I’m not convinced that the S&C coach is a make or break hire. There are a lot of good coaches out there. Everyone was super excited about Longo – who I’m sure was a good coach – when he was hired, but the biggest upgrade in ND’s strength program probably came from *finally* allowing a training table.
I doubt this new guy will be worse, but I also doubt he’s objectively better.
One question I’ve wondered about is whether rotating S&C coaches would make a positive impact. In my own training, getting new perspectives, techniques, and emphasis every couple years has had a huge positive impact. I see the business reasons why no coach wants to do this, but I feel like if people just gathered data whenever a new S&C coach was hired we’d see some interesting things.
Eric, man, I so hope you’re wrong about this. I didn’t actually end up withholding donations this year (long story, but I talked with a lot of people and basically felt retaining Kelly one more year was reasonable given that Texas, LSU, Oregon, and Baylor were also in the market for new coaches), but if we get another clunker of a season, I definitely will.
One question I have: I know that head coaches frequently have buyouts – but what about assistant coaches? That would be news to me. I had basically heard that coaching was a crappy job with respect to job stability, which does not suggest that buyouts are the norm. Does anyone know about that?
Hey, this is the off-season, time for renewed optimism! What’s with all the Debby Downer stuff? I think people are taking the 4-8 season way out of context, most notably the ND Nation crew. No one is trying to say that last season was anything other than horrible, but take a look at what we were thinking going into 2016 – most folks thought that we were a top 20 team, at least. What would have happened if BVG had been let go after 2015? Who thinks we would have ended up 4-8 in 2016? What would have happened if we had average special teams (even average by ND standards) instead of what we had in 2016? What would have happened if Max Redfield hadn’t screwed up and got himself kicked off the team right before the season started (not to mention Butler’s Linebacker incident) and we didn’t have to resort to a bunch of freshmen to play in the defensive backfield, or had more time to get ready for that? Sure, similar things could happen this year, but now is not the time to plan on those things happening. As a counter to Spider Man’s list, I give you the optimists’ list of why things could blow up goodly (bigly?): (1) Long’s offense is very close to the one that Kelly runs and was very efficient at Memphis with players who were not of the caliber that ND typically has. Although we lose Kizer, Wimbush is by all accounts an excellent QB who has been in the program for two full years now and is far more experienced than Kizer was in 2015. Plus, we get every other starter back on offense, plus Jones at TE. All of those starters has another year of experience. Phil Steele (I think) has said that experience is vastly underrated at the college level, especially with offensive linemen. (2) Players will be energized and ready to show that last year was a fluke season. I think appointing captains in December should help with leadership and was a very good move. The new S&C coach will change things up over the winter, which should breathe a little fresh air into the program, if nothing else. (3) I don’t think chemistry with Elko and Lea will be a problem for Elston and Lyght. They know that the D sucked eggs and Elko is purportedly very well respected and liked. (4) D-line will – hopefully – be able to grasp Elko’s schemes far better than BVG’s. Elko was able to do some really nice things with Wake Forrest’s players who were not nearly as well regarded out of HS as ND’s. We lose two very good players, but there are a lot of bodies available. I suspect that they will be able to find a good rotation that, while it may not be outstanding, should be serviceable. (5) Random factors have to even out some time. With the captains in place, let’s see if we can… Read more »
To be honest, the only points 2 & 3 would I feel good about at this point. This shouldn’t be a fat and happy program and a renewed sense of fight can go a long way for a single season. We’ll see!
I’m a pretty optimistic guy, i’ll jump on your train.
In my mind, Long will run a qb-risk free offense that also constrain the defense from keying into the run too much. Elko will vastly improve the defense (although I don’t really like his go-to safety blitz at all). Special teams won’t be horrible, and we’ll get some sacks/tfl.
1) Long has very little experience calling plays (and none against Power 5 competition, correct?)
2) Agree (although one of those captains is already gone)3) Agree
4) Scheme might not matter here. None of these guys showed any ability to generate pressure last year, and none of the guys who redshirted were really renowned for their great pass rushing skills in high school. Like not at all. If anything, Elko is likely to have to dial up some exotic blitz packages to get any pressure this year.
5) Agree, although I’m still going to assume at least 2 impact players are no longer available by the middle of the season.
6) Agree. It will be a decent schedule, but I don’t see any world beaters on there. USC seems like the only one with top 10 potential.
Nice, I’ll take a ticket please.
I’m on board with a return to the 10 win range next season. I think number 5 is the biggie. If the administration chooses to keep handicapping the team, the results will suffer.
I’m another glass half full guy. Sign me up for a ride on this bandwagon. Hell, I’ll play trumpet!
I think the key variable is BK. Is he genuinely all in, and fiercely determined to learn, grow, get better,? Then he can get to another 12-0. Not many coaches around who have had two of those like he has had.
https://twitter.com/CFBFilmRoom/status/822267334849163264 – Yikes. Probably wise for McGlinchey to come back if these grades are remotely accurate.
Well, that’s not good.