As the end of the 2016 offseason approaches, we’ll take a look at scenarios for the 2017 recruiting finish and how the class could potentially rank if each plays out. While there’s some element of divining to it, please note that this is NOT a prediction of who will sign with the Irish on February 1st (go ahead and mark your calendars for that one, folks). I’ve included a couple of kids that I’m pretty confident will sign with Notre Dame, and I’ve left out some kids that theoretically have us in their final group but realistically we have virtually no chance of signing. The methodology here is pretty simple: I took the last five years of top 15 classes by 247 Composite, averaged the team score for each rank position, and then used the 247 class calculator to project a final score for each scenario and slot it into the appropriate ranking position.
The usual caveats apply, of course; player ratings can change between now and February, new names can come into the picture out of nowhere, and current commitments could change their minds. For our purposes here I’m disregarding all of that and keeping this as simple as I can. I’m assuming we’ll take 7-8 more players in this class. Now, with all the fun stuff out of the way, let’s get to the #sportsmath results.
Where We Stand Today
The class currently sits at #5 in the 2017 247 Composite rankings with a team score of 240.15; as we’ll see in a moment, that’s a respectable score that limits the floor for this class, but the ranking will probably be very difficult to maintain. Notre Dame currently has 17 commits;Â 11 of them are four-star prospects, which ties the Irish with #1 Ohio State, #2 Alabama, and #6 Oklahoma for most in that category. Ohio State has three five-stars already committed and Alabama has two, while Notre Dame and Oklahoma both have zero. Puke. Anyway… Notre Dame’s highest-rated recruit is Brock Wright, the #67 prospect overall, with Robert Hainsey not far behind at #74 overall.
The Pipe Dream Recruiting Finish
If I had to put a percentage on the probability of this finish occurring I’d guess somewhere around 0.01%. Hey, crazier stuff has happened, but honestly, don’t put any money on this, OK? Not that I endorse gambling under any circumstances, which I don’t, Mr. FBI person… To give some numerical context here, five of the eight players listed would each be the highest-rated recruit in our class today. So, yeah. Very much not likely to happen. But it could, and I know some of you would ask “what if player
| Player | Position | Rank | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foster Sarell | OT | 3 | 0.9942 |
| Darnay Holmes | CB | 11 | 0.9924 |
| Shaun Wade | CB | 17 | 0.9889 |
| Joshua Kaindoh | DE | 30 | 0.9831 |
| Jedrick Wills | OT | 41 | 0.9779 |
| Hunter Echols | DE | 97 | 0.9500 |
| Osiris St. Brown | WR | 144 | 0.9363 |
| Tarik Black | WR | 152 | 0.9342 |
This recruiting finish would give the class a score of 301.01; in any of the last five cycles that would be good enough for #2 nationwide, but with the way Ohio State and Alabama are going this year I think it might end up being good enough for #3 instead. Regardless, it would be an absurdly good class and the best of the Kelly era, edging out the 2013 class that finished #5. Irish fans should be over the moon if Notre Dame signs just two of the top six guys here, let alone all of them. Why did I say “top six”? Well, read on, friends.
The Recruiting Finish That’s OK to Think About
Is this finish likely either? Wellllll… Probably not. But it or a finish like it is substantially more probable than the aptly-named pipe dream scenario, so go ahead and visualize this one. We won’t judge, at least not in any way that you can actually hear us.
| Player | Position | Rank | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foster Sarell | OT | 3 | 0.9942 |
| Shaun Wade | CB | 17 | 0.9889 |
| Hunter Echols | DE | 97 | 0.9500 |
| Bubba Bolden | S | 118 | 0.9427 |
| Osiris St. Brown | WR | 144 | 0.9363 |
| Tarik Black | WR | 152 | 0.9342 |
| Jamire Calvin | ATH | 435 | 0.8732 |
| Dalton Wagner | OT | 525 | 0.8640 |
Bolden and Wagner don’t have offers right now, but could possibly pick them up soon. Sarell and Wade will be very tough pulls, but not impossible. Echols is probably a coin flip, and could possibly be a package deal with teammate Jamire Calvin. You might notice that St. Brown and Black repeat. Clever one, you… This finish would yield a class score of 285.3, which in any of the last five cycles would’ve slotted very comfortably into the #5 spot.
The Recruiting Finish That’s Most Likely
I wouldn’t go so far as call this a prediction for the class – in fact, for all of these scenarios, I would recommend getting less hung up on specific names in the finish and look more at the overall mix of prospect ratings. I think a finish of this quality is eminently achievable.
| Player | Position | Rank | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Graham | CB | 49 | 0.9734 |
| Salvon Ahmed | ATH | 121 | 0.9420 |
| Osiris St. Brown | WR | 144 | 0.9363 |
| Tarik Black | WR | 152 | 0.9342 |
| Aaron Banks | OT | 168 | 0.9295 |
| Dalton Wagner | OT | 525 | 0.8640 |
| Amari Carter | S | 528 | 0.8639 |
| K’jakyre Daley | DE | 701 | 0.8527 |
Now, who knows – maybe Echols does jump, so no room for Daley, but a lower-rated offensive lineman comes on. Or maybe Ahmed doesn’t join but Bubba Bolden does, and so on. However it works out, I just think this quality finish is obtainable. It would yield a team score of 273.97, which would be on average #9 over the last five cycles. Not too shabby.
The Recruiting Finish Floor for 2017
Bold words, I know, but the staff has done an excellent job putting this class together and I just can’t imagine a more significant fizzle than this down the stretch. At this point Notre Dame would get to this finish via contingency plans for at least two, possibly three or even four positions.
| Player | Position | Rank | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osiris St. Brown | WR | 144 | 0.9363 |
| Tarik Black | WR | 152 | 0.9342 |
| Jacob Phillips | LB | 219 | 0.9136 |
| Elijah Gates | CB | 255 | 0.9040 |
| Dalton Wagner | OT | 525 | 0.8640 |
| Amari Carter | Â S | Â 528 | 0.8639 |
| Kwity Paye | DE | 1088 | 0.8366 |
This finish would give the Irish class a team score of 263.18, which on average would be good for #12. That’s a tick higher than where we have typically ranked under Kelly, so it might seem par for the course, but with how this class has started it would be hard for this finish not to feel like a disappointment.
Those of you who have been paying attention – if you’re not I’m not sure you how made it down here, but whatever man, your life – might notice that I’ve put Osiris St. Brown and Tarik Black in each of the four scenarios. As you might have guessed, that means I feel pretty good about both of them eventually signing with Notre Dame. I’ve left out guys like Jeffrey Okudah and Devon Hunter, who have said very nice things about Notre Dame but have yet to show any interest beyond that.
Hold on, you’re telling me there’s a highly rated recruit named Bubba, and we haven’t offered him? Honestly, this is easily the biggest failure of the BK era.
Still scarred from the Bubba Starling fiasco, apparently.
I still wish we had landed Budda Baker. It’s like the creamier tastier version of Bubba.
I am not as confident in St. Brown joining his brother at ND. I actually feel that he may want to blaze his own path and he seems to like Stanford a lot. Foster Sarell may not be as much of a longshot as you think. I live in Washington state and there is much trepidation that he is going out of state and ND seems most likely. UW has a great young LT that started as a freshman and may cause him to sit for 1-2 years. I know that he may sit at ND as well, but we have a track record of putting OL into the NFLÂ and sitting behind other NFL caliber OL would look better come draft time. But hey, that just a theory, a recruiting theory!
I’d put St. Brown at 60/40 ND right now – not from any insider info, just a gut feel. I agree with you that of the three brothers, he seems most likely to be concerned about being his own man. Plus, it’s easy to forget since it worked out in our favor, but their mother went to Stanford. I actually feel considerably better about Tarik Black than I do about Osiris.
Interesting note on Sarell. I’ve seen some analysts say that regardless of the OL depth at Notre Dame, Sarell might be able to start as a true freshman – that’s pretty impressive given that we’ll have Bars, Kraemer, and Eichenberg around in 2017.
Zack Martin opened people’s eyes. Ronnie Stanley went #6. McGlinchey is already being mentioned by some as possibly the top tackle in the 2017 draft – if that buzz grows, you’d have to be crazy to not at least seriously listen to Harry if he comes calling.
Are you suggesting that if we get Shaun Wade, then we should not take Thomas Graham? Couldn’t we not take a three star OL instead? I know there’s bodies at CB but still. Where’s Eric to agree with me?
Not at all… I think we’ll probably take 7-8 more players: 1-2 OL, 2 WR, 1-2 DE, 2 DB, 0-2 “other.” In that “high finish” scenario, the two DBs are Wade and Bolden. I think we’d be pretty likely to take Wade, Graham, and Bolden if they wanted in, and then someone else from that scenario, most likely Wagner, would fall off.
Fantastic post. That’s all.
Actually, not quite all, as I have a question: which of those guys have we not offered yet? The lower ranked DE names don’t jump out to me as guys I’ve heard of (I’m not an obsessive follower, but I pay enough attention to know of the main guys)
Unless I’m missing something, OT Dalton Banks, DE Kwity Paye and S Bubba Bolden are the only three listed above without an ND offer.
You’re 5/6ths right, my friend… OT Dalton Wagner, DE Kwity Paye, and S Bubba Bolden are indeed offerless. Bolden and Wagner could pick up offers soon, while Paye will probably get an offer only if other options fall through.
OT Aaron Banks already has an offer as of about a month ago, with the staff possibly showing a little more interest lately.
Thanks!
Also, Daley has an offer but I believe we’re not pushing particularly hard at this point. And Elijah Gates isn’t really likely to ramp up interest in us again, but he’s an appropriate placeholder for how I envision that scenario – a defensive back falling somewhere in the 250-300 group of the rankings.
Thanks!
So are we becoming O-Line U?
I think we’re close – I think Hiestand has developed the unit to a point where more often than not, we’ll have a lineman going in the first round. Probably McGlinchey this year, possibly Nelson the next, Bars the next, Kraemer or Eichenberg the next… And I’m sure it doesn’t hurt to have guys like Chris Watt, who was not a high draft pick, earn starting jobs. Harry know what he’s doing, and recruits will notice that.
In fact, it’s happening even in this cycle. The biggest reason we’re still in the race for Trey Smith – we’re probably not going to get him, but we’re there – is that he’s impressed by the way Hiestand prepares guys for the NFL.
The headline picture: No one can ever say that you don’t know what CBK is thinking. The mans face is a book.
I love that picture. It’s FUBK in full effect.