It’s about that time for some deep thoughts on the future of Notre Dame football. Ideally, I wanted to wait until the end of the season but I’m going to catch that wave right now and ride it for a while.
I was going to title this article, “Just Make the Right Hire” but I realized, well, no one can really agree on who the right hire would be. For the record, once conference championship weekend is over I’m going to be rolling out a look at potential candidates that I hope everyone will enjoy. That should be fun.
Should Brian Kelly be fired? Do I think Brian Kelly should be fired?
I’m not saying these aren’t important questions. It’s just they aren’t as important to me as other questions. It’s almost as if people think once a certain percentage of Irish fans give up on Brian Kelly a magical door is going to open up and we’ll all join hands in the world’s easiest coaching search. We just need more people to jump ship first!
They are also questions that are very inter-Notre Dame related. They’re more concerned with settling internet fights within our own than thinking about larger issues. You know the guy, he’s real opinionated and thinks Jon Gruden is the first phone call for the future. He’s two dozen deep on Brian Kelly should be fired threads this year–and if he’s not (draws in a huge breath and shouts) then it’s proof this school doesn’t care about winning!
You’ve got to love the passion but it’s full of panic, anger, frustration, and in some cases, hatred. Don’t fall into that trap.
Brian Kelly is unlikely to take this program where it needs to go. It’s okay to admit that and not lose your mind if he comes back for 2017. No Irish coach has ever been pushed down this far and turned things around, and definitely not been able to turn things around in a big way.
Heading into the 1950 season Frank Leahy was 80-7-5 throughout his career–a winning percentage of .896 that was the greatest in the history of college or pro football. He hadn’t lost in 4+ years, had the pre-season No. 1 team in the nation, and stunned the world by going 4-4-1 in 1950.
Pound for pound, with all the advantages Notre Dame was blessed with after the late 40’s, that might’ve been a worse season than what we’ve witness today in 2016. Leahy certainly didn’t fall apart thereafter but he’d never win a national title again and within 3 more years he was gone from South Bend of his own accord.
Over 5 years ago I wrote the Guide to Rebuilding Notre Dame Football with 10 keys to achieving that feat:
Develop Team Mental Toughness
Recruit Football-First Players
Decrease the Amount of Blowout & Bad Losses
Blow Out More Teams
Maintain Healthy Roster Depth
Push the Envelope with New Technology
Avoid Losing Seasons
Develop the Quarterback Position
Keep the Coaching Staff Solidified
Beat More Ranked Teams
There was a time when many of these keys were trending in a positive direction if not operating at a really high level. Today, as many as 8 of these keys are trending really poorly.
So, if Notre Dame were to fire Brian Kelly there would be enough evidence to indict him for not just losing too many games but losing some of the progress that was built earlier in his tenure.
Additionally, the Irish are likely to be breaking in a new quarterback next season, there will be a ton of starters coming back, and it feels like a breath of fresh air could do wonders right now. I have no qualms with anyone who thinks we’d be better off next year trying to re-load and climb back up the mountain ahead of that looming opener against Michigan in 2018.
However, the future is more than just next year or the year after. In times like these that can be really, really difficult for people to process. There are some coaches I’d take right now if Jack Swarbrick hired them in a few days, but I’d also wait another 12 months to get one of those coaches, too.
Nothing (within reason) is more important than really nailing this next hire.
Here are my closing lines from Rebuilding Notre Dame:
Remember, rebuilding Notre Dame football, re-setting expectations, and being patient right now isn’t about making excuses just to keep a staff around. It’s about setting the program up for future success for the current staff and for the coaches who will follow Brian Kelly.
We don’t need patience in the form of giving Brian Kelly 3 more years. He’s had plenty of time and he hasn’t earned that right. He’s very likely going to have one more year. Giving him one more year–if it means setting the program up for long-term success with a good successor–would completely be worth it.
Just do a good job with the next hire.
At this point, if you’re skeptical there are probably two issues nagging your mind:
What about Jack?
Has Swarbrick been caught off guard by this season? Is he unprepared to execute a quality coaching search? Is he too attached to Kelly to see things clearly?
The first two questions, relating to palace intrigue, are wholly uninteresting to me. It would seem pretty natural to be caught off guard a little bit especially after extending Kelly through the 2021 season. A lot of folks are caught off guard right now scratching their heads. Attempting to dig deeper into the intentions of Swarbrick’s work to this point smells more than projecting than anything else. File that away in the panic, frustration, etc. etc.
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned that Kelly can get back into Jack’s good graces with a modestly successful 2017 season. Doesn’t that mean you want Kelly fired now!?? Not exactly, just that the bar should be set really freaking high next year if Kelly does come back. I know it’s a worry for many that the bar won’t be high enough.
The older I get the more I realize not to worry about things that haven’t happened yet.
What about All Those 10 Factors Above?
That’s a good point. Comparing things now to 2009 isn’t very flattering to Brian Kelly. There were certain areas we thought we’d never be able to compare to the Weis era and yet here we are.
However, things still don’t seem nearly as bad as the end of the last coaching tenure and that matters when you’re talking about pulling the plug now or in a year.
Kelly has thrown together a pair of awful losing periods to end 2014 and over the last 13 games to date. But, the line on that above graph has continued to stay pretty low and he’s not that far removed from a very legit coaching performance in 2015.
Is that reason enough to keep Kelly around another year? Not exactly, but these performances HERE have bought some national equity and the program is surprisingly stable given the current situation. If a new coach comes within a few weeks that’d be exciting, if we wait until this time next year it’s not the end of the world.
Just do a good job with the next hire.
To me, that’s the kicker. Barring a big change of direction from up top, IMO Kelly will be back next season, whether we like it or not. If he goes 9-3 or better- which seems fairly attainable given schedule and talent likely coming back – can’t see him getting the ax at that point.
The worst case scenario would be doing just good enough in ’17 to keep his job, without huge success or failures that would make it clear a change is needed.
Broader picture, I find myself more lenient on Kelly than most at the moment. I’m fine with him getting 2017 on the goodwill built up from 2012-15 where he got to a NC game and was a few plays away from making the playoff last year. For me, that’s enough to overlook all the coaching faults made in 2016, the biggest of which has already been rectified in replacing the DC (even if it’s beyond obvious it should have happened in the previous offseason).
Also, I think I’m more risk adverse when it comes to a major decision/change like HC. For better and worse, we know what Kelly can do, and (though not this season) he has had success and won many games. A new, unknown coach could lead ND to glory but like the article says a coaching search isn’t going to be smooth and, again just my opinion, I’m not certain there’s an available upgrade that would take the job. That also makes one more year of CBK sound more palatable to me than the unknown of a meltdown or bad hire (visions of O’Leary, Davie, Willingham and Weis still linger).
I know a decent-to-good 2017 season buying Kelly more time is a big fear, as I mentioned. However, I wouldn’t completely ignore Swarbrick still making a move after a 9-3 season.
We were discussing behind the scenes with our staff how it’d be a real boss ass move if Swarbrick made a move (bringing in an eye raising hire, especially) right now. I’m real big on non-Notre Dame (specifically coaches, agents, etc.) people’s value of the school and football program because, as I’ve said in the past, it’s these people Swarbrick & Co. need to convince–not us fans.
The truth is we’re not dealing from a position of strength right now. God knows this dumb NCAA ruling won’t help, either. But a good season where Swarbrick has enough time to make the phone calls and he can sell the program back in a stable position and ready to be taken to the next level?
Not sure I’d bet on it but I wouldn’t rule it out.
There are only about 15,000 articles already out there on this, but for anyone who comes here for their ND news, ND forced to vacate wins in 2012 and 2013
Saw that a little bit ago. Seems excessive if the NCAA agreed with ND that the institution had no culpability. Regardless, IMO, vacating wins is the most “non-penalty” penalty there is. The games were played and everyone saw them. Who cares. Maybe I’m in the minority on that but it’s pretty irrelevant.
Agreed, but the only bad thing is that until they are reinstated we are not #2 in winning percentage anymore. Of course, they will be reinstated so no worries.
All this is true. I get annoyed at the whole concept of vacating wins (for ND or anyone else). It doesn’t matter, the memories are the same, but makes record books a bit of a joke with no real impact on compliance.
There’s a bigger issue than that, if the NCAA upholds these penalties, they’re setting a dangerous precedent for themselves…. From JJ at CSN:
Next time this happens, if I’m at Notre Dame (or anywhere else) in this situation, I would just expel the students and call it a day instead of involving the NCAA for heavy-handed penalties doled out by a committee’s discretion. Vacating all wins in a season where as few as one player gets improper help for a full team isn’t very fair. (And, let’s be real, most likely every school would vacate all their wins every year if this is the standard. Cheating at college by athletes and regular students alike is pretty common).
Clown. freaking. shoes.
The thing that pisses me off is we’re basically considered in the same category as North Carolina, where there were having players take face classes signed off by a professor–real, clear, legit academic fraud. Meanwhile, ND found out student athletes were getting impermissible help from another student, investigated, punished accordingly but not unfairly, and SELF-REPORTED it, and somehow we’re the same?
That’s not really true…
The NCAA actually punished us.
Punished the students. Which is who is at fault for their actions.
I think it’s ironic that we hold ourselves to higher academic and behavioral standards to such a degree that it inhibits our football success, yet the NCAA decides to kneecap us for a pimple of a problem that most schools would just flat overlook.
as the saying goes, no good deed goes unpunished.
Your last line is exactly what my dad said over the phone when we were discussing it last night.
The best part of the whole thing is that the NCAA is vacating our wins because we had the student-athlete’s interests in mind (at least partially motivating our allowing them to re-enter school). If we would have expelled them from school, the NCAA wouldn’t have taken action. We instead punished them, and then gave them a chance to right their wrongs academically and graduate, and the NCAA comes and removes wins.
Crazy, crazy hypocrisy, even for an institution known for their hypocrisy.
I think it is perfectly valid for Swarbrick to have been caught off guard by this. I think everyone in America was. Other than the few people on certain boards who are rooting against Kelly (but somehow not ND in their minds) to justify their opposition to Kelly and anyone not named Saban, Meyer, Stoops or Gruden, even the preseason poll on the board had ND at 9-3 or so, maybe even higher. The issue for Swarbrick is he has to react rationally to what has happened as opposed to those of us who are merely fans and can rant, rave, etc. without any consequence for our actions and comments. I agree with you that the 10 factors are a pretty good method of evaluating the state of the program. Other than 2012 where every bounce until Alabama went NDs way and to some extent 2015, I think we score a little lower than we might. I have been troubled for a long time about Kelly seeming to play games against even and below teams too close too often. I also think we tend, more often than not, to get blown out in games against superior teams. Other than Clemson in 2015, we tend to get blown out. I don’t see us ever being the Iowa beating Michigan or a Penn State beating tOSU this year. We might play them close, but more likely we get beaten like a drum. Even if you include 2012, the record shows that. While I think it is overdone, Kelly does truly lack a signature win over a Top 5 opponent. Perhaps Stanford in 2012 qualifies, but I really can’t remember any. Thus, I give Kelly less credit for goodwill in 2012 and 2015 than some others, but I can see the point. Again, though, looking at it rationally, the rest of the world will give Kelly that credit and would not dig deeper. Thus, firing Kelly now would look irrational and an overreaction to one bad year, which many great coaches have had. That makes it harder, and certainly more expensive, to bring in the next coach. Thus, waiting a year (and setting a high bar – with appropriate exceptions if Wimbush goes down) makes sense to ND economically (one less year of severance) and to the coaching world (that we are not hostage to the noisy segment of the fan base, which every school has). The economic factor that has to balance that is how the Crossroads project is selling and renewals. If those economics are cutting against ND and Swarbrick is hearing it is due to Kelly, then the decision shifts. Every year, there are the up and comers, or shooting stars, as coaches. This year those names are Herman and Fleck. Neither of them passes the Ara standard (I had 16 years of HC experience and needed every day- or something to that effect), and next year there will be a new Herman and Fleck. Kelly was a completely logical hire… Read more »
I completely disagree with the “next year there will be a new Herman” quote. Herman has the most college coaching buzz around him for any up-and-comer since Urban Meyer in 2004; that is over a decade. In terms of program excitement, he is an immediate home run hire for whoever gets him – maybe he will be worth that excitement, maybe not, but whoever gets him is definitely winning the offseason news cycle.
That “whoever”, though, will either be Texas or LSU, almost assuredly. His availability shouldn’t play into ND’s coaching search decision, because I can’t imagine he is coming here.
However, as you seem to be getting at, ND can’t wait for a “sure-fire winner” either – because there is nobody in our recent coaching tree who would be likely to come here or any alum who qualifies. We’re going to be hiring PJ Fleck or next year’s PJ Fleck, so I think we might as well go get PJ Fleck.
“whoever” is Texas. He’s going to Texas. I see 0% he goes anywhere but Texas at this point.
Herman doesn’t have any more buzz around him than Kelly did in 2009.
After 11-2 and 12-1 seasons at Louisville, I’d say Strong in 2013 was just as hot of a doing good things coach ready for a bigger job as much as anyone as well. Hopefully for Herman’s sake Texas doesn’t chew him up and spit him out like poor Charlie.
Good point – and he was a Meyer protege as well. I think it’s easy to look at the hottest thing each year and forget there were just as hot things in past years.
Oh I disagree with that quite a bit. Kelly wasn’t even the splashiest hire of that offseason; Lane Kiffin was (ah, the good ole days).
One can make an argument that Kelly’s 2009 resume was (distinctly) better than Herman’s right now, but in terms of perception and excitement, Herman is pretty far ahead of where Kelly was in 2009. I don’t even think that’s particularly debatable.
Well, we’ll disagree then. I think Kelly’s 10-3, 11-3 and 12-0 seasons at Cincinnati were perceived as just as flashy as Herman’s Houston seasons – Herman has bigger wins but Briles and Sumlin had done big things at Houston before Herman, where Cincinnati was a century-plus long wasteland before Kelly. Kelly was undoubtedly regarded by the entire college football landscape, aside from the site that shall not be named, as the most sure thing there could possibly be.
Hooks made a great point with Strong as well, he was considered a sure-fire thing after the bowl game win over Florida.
How can you make this statement? You are actively participating in a debate about it
To say Lane Kiffin was a “splashy” hire, is not the same as saying he had the most hype around him, or he was the best hire. He was splashy, I will give you that. But he was splashy because he grabbed a bunch of headlines when he was hired, largely because it wasn’t a great hire, and no one saw it coming (also maybe because his wife is hot). He had been fired from the Raiders 1 year before, was coming off a 7-6 season, and left Tenn amidst already bubbling discussion of NCAA investigations.
I consider Harbaugh at UM a splashier hire than Herman would be this year.
I think that guys like Strong, Kelly, even Kirby Smart, were just as hyped up as Herman. But hype is completely subjective and largely surrounds what sites you read or stations you watch.
And this whole discussion reminds me of a place where Weiss gets so little credit. CW is the reason that ND was able to hire a good coach in BK. CW laid the ground work to make ND a desirable place to coach again.
People love to dump on Weiss, and he was not a good college coach, but I think he deserves a huge amount of credit for putting ND on a course towards being competitive again.
Agree with this. Weis got us back on the map with his ability to recruit. It wasn’t perfect and not very balanced but compared to the talent that was there before it was a huge step up. He was able to get a ton of offensive “stars” with his NFL offense background/super bowl rings. It would have been tough for others to make such a huge leap with the way ND had been doing.
One last thing to add. This site has all the coaching changes for the past dozen or so years. It is a good place to reference when considering the likelihood of another really exciting coach for next year. http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/coaching_changes.html
Here are the big time school hires dating back to BK:
2016: USC – Helton, Miami – Richt, UGA – Smart, VT – Fuente
2015: Florida – McElwain, UM – Harbaugh, Nebraska – Riley
2014: PSU – Franklin, Texas – Strong, USC – Sarkisian
2013: Tennessee – Jones
2012: tOSU – Meyer, PSU – O’Brien, aTm – Sumlin, UCLA – Mora
2011: Florida – Muschamp, Miami – Golden, UM – Hoke, tOSU – Fickell*
2010: FSU – Fisher, ND – Kelly, Tenn – Dooley, USC – Kiffin
Good find.
Which of these coaches would you be be comfortable replacing Kelly with their resumes at the time?
2010- Fisher- no head coaching experience, probably not; Dooley- 3 mediocre years at La Tech, nope; Kiffin- bad in the NFL and 7-6 at Tennessee, no
2011- Muschamp- no head coaching experience, again no; Golden- 5 years at Temple and overachieved historically, I’d take him; Hoke- did well at Ball St. and San Diego St. but not hugely impressive, maybe
2012- Meyer- obviously, yes; O’Brien- no top college experience, no; Sumlin- 4 years as a head coach and two double-digit win seasons, probably; Mora- no college experience, no
2013- Jones- the BK clone, I’d hire him
2014- Franklin- only three years as an HC but did well enough at Vandy, probably would; Strong- he was great at Louisville and had a good background, I’d love to go back in time and hire this guy before Texas happened to him; Sarkisian- 7 win Steve, nope
2015- McElwain- only one really good year as an HC but a Saban assistant, I’d probably be ok with it; Harbaugh- can’t stand the guy, but sure; Mike Riley- just above average at Oregon State, no thanks
2016- Helton- no thanks; Richt- not perfect but I’m a fan; Smart- never been a head coach; Fuente- back-to-back good years at Memphis, so sure
Altogether, I’d be thrilled if 2012 Meyer, 2014 Charlie Strong, or 2015 Harbaugh was around to replace BK this year. I would be fine with bringing in 2011 Golden, 2012 Sumlin, 2013 Butch Jones, 2014 Franklin, 2015 McElwain, and 2016 Richt or Fuente. Basically one guy per year.
Not sure what any of that means except that I’d be a terrible AD.
Interesting question. First off, I will say Harbaugh plays my favorite style of football. I love watching manballllll, so he would be my number 1 choice even though he is bat-poop crazy. After him, would have loved Meyer then Strong.
Past those guys, I personally want a young, great recruiter, with a high ceiling. Like you, I want a prior HC, but only because all the current great ones seem to have come from that path.
My top group from the remainder would be Sumlin, Golden, McElwain, and Fuente.
One thing to beware of with Herman/Fleck is that Houston’s TO differential last year was +21 (1.5 per game), and WM’s this year is around that. So they have really only had one good year each with an average TO margin, still impressive seasons. TOs are random, and having great TO margins that lead to good seasons has resulted in a lot of bad coaching hires.
Agreed (not on the manball stuff, I’m a sucker for the spread *when it works*).
Great point on turnover luck. Western Michigan’s third in fumble recovery percentage this year at (70.4%). Notre Dame is… 115th (38.9%). As you mentioned, Houston was top 10 last year as well.
At the end of the day, your record is your record but interesting to note.
Whew I missed a lot of discussion while Thanksgiving-ing. I’ll just say that I wasn’t including Harbaugh for the purposes of this discussion – he at UM and Meyer at Ohio State don’t really qualify as up-and-coming to my mind. They were, on the day they got announced, huge and obviously program-changing hires.
I hadn’t really considered Charlie Strong; that might have been a miss by me. But I’m really talking about buzz, which is inherently subjective and is only somewhat but not completely related to records. Like I said above, in 2009, Kiffin was a bigger and more exciting hire at USC than Kelly was at ND despite Kiffin’s previous coaching record not being nearly what Kelly’s was. I’m an ND fan so if anything my media bias would be in favor of thinking Kelly was a bigger deal then, but I certainly remember that not to be the case.
That is all to say: there is a distinct difference (sometimes significant, sometimes not, but definitely distinct) between program excitement and the track record of the coach before the hire. It is often media-driven and may or may not be deserved, but it is real. Whoever hires Herman this year will get way more out of it in terms of good publicity and program excitement than ND did in hiring Kelly, despite Kelly’s track record in 2009 being arguably much more impressive than Herman’s currently is.
Yeah, in hindsight Swarbrick should’ve waited on the extension to see BK put together back-to-back 10 win seasons but I was 100% on the Kelly train after last year. Coordinators can make or break head coaches though. Not sure if there’s precedent for getting back to National Championship contention after a season like this, but you have to think a decent DC gets the team to an 8-4 floor at least in 2017.
My general view is that, unless you’ve got Saban or Meyer, you can build a program to consistently have 10 win quality. Some years luck breaks your way (2012), some times it doesn’t (2014- FSU game and late-season injuries). The top 10-15 coaches are able to stick around there year in and year out.
Ideally I’d want to hire someone with a long enough track record to show that kind of sustained success. Kelly fit this mold pretty well. Fleck doesn’t, Herman at least has a second standout year under his belt, and everybody else probably won’t come or isn’t a clear step up.
Long story short, I guess I agree with waiting. Devil you know, etc. We’ll probably still need to pull the trigger and hope for the best either way.
I agree with that. “PJ Fleck good, Brian Kelly bad” puts a whole lot of weight on the recency factor of 2016 and not much else.
A heretical question: are we sure it’s a fair assumption that Jack Swarbrick would (or should) keep his job after this season? I would think, given the hire and the untimely contract extension, he and Kelly might be tied at the hip.
Edit/preemptive strike: I recognize the state of athletics at ND in the non-football variety is pretty good right now. With that said, I think it’s fair to say that, at Notre Dame, football’s success or failure ultimately trumps in importance everything else athletically combined.
This goes in the wait and see before worrying bin, for me.
Swarbrick shouldn’t be fired simply for hiring Kelly and because we’re in this point today. I don’t think you’re saying that but it’s floating out there.
I don’t need to fire him if he keeps Kelly for another year, either. I’d be keeping an eye on his public statements from here on out (normally not a big deal to me but if he’s publicly raising the bar that’s a good thing) and how he handles this point next year. If we go 8-4 in 2017 and he shows zero effort at replacing Kelly then I think a case could be made that he might have to be shown the door himself.
In addition to what Eric said, let’s not act like the football program is Baylor. I don’t see anything regarding the academic issue being connected to BK or Jack’s job security, because even the NCAA acknowledged everything was handled correctly. The NCAA is flat wrong and out of line, from what I can ascertain, so it’s unfair to put that on Swarbrick.
So leaving that aside, if we just look at the state of the football program, we’re not happy with 2016, but other than the issues directly attributable to coaching (which is the decision to hire/fire BK), what program-level things are deficient that you would take Jack to task on? Facilities have been upgraded substantially, lots of money going into the stadium. The ACC deal is a crap sandwich that Jack has made as delicious as possible, given the current state of CFB. Jack’s job as the AD is to give the coach the resources and space to run a winning program, and hold him accountable to that. I think we’ve actually seen possible evidence that he’s doing exactly that–BK being reluctant to fire BVG, and doing it anyway, which many people attribute to Jack forcing his hand. We can argue about whether or not as AD we’d fire BK now or fire him next year after whatever record should be the mark, but there’s nothing about the overall structural health of the program (facilities and resources) that unfairly hinder a coach’s success (academic/recruiting restrictions due to academics, while Jack should be an advocate for the program with the admin, are not his decisions to make, and it’s an open argument as to whether we should make any changes there anyway).
I think Jack’s done a great job, and has been a great AD, including his handling of the FB program. People focus on contract extensions, but those are as much about restructuring as votes of confidence, and I don’t think we should fault him for giving BK one after a 10-3 season with a 12-1 season (not anymore /failhorn) in the bank. New contracts set new expectations as well as reward past performance, so I’d hope there are ongoing conversations about what is expected to fix the coaching issues, and if they aren’t fixed, Jack will make the call for BK. If we’re having this conversation again after a 7-5 season next year and we think Jack isn’t going to make a move, then I question Jack.
As for the extension, I would just point out that Swarbrick is a hell of a lot smarter than White – Kelly’s buyout reportedly has a standard offset clause, which Weis’s didn’t. I can’t see Kelly flat-out retiring, so whether he takes another coaching job or works for ESPN, there’s a pretty good chance that the actual cost of the buyout will not be prohibitive. Hell, it might even be nothing.
I think that’s mostly right and fair, Eric/KG. However, I am a little less willing to give him a pass for the contract extension last year than most of the commenters here; I thought it seemed a little rash/Iowa-with-Ferentz-like at the time (obviously not as rash as the Charlie Weis extension, but we shouldn’t be grading against that curve, as that has to be among the least excusable contract extensions ever). Given that the terms of the deal are not available, though, we don’t know what is in it and what outs there are, so maybe the deal is not so awful.
Interesting that the stat line on Kelly paints 2012 as his worst year. Yet another reason to view advanced stats with a grain of salt.
Just my opinion but:
1. Jack is nowhere close to being fired.
2. Firing Kelly if he’s 9-3 next year ain’t gone happen. If he did, no chance a better coach would be dumb enough to come here.
If we tried to hire one of the “stars” this year, we’d likely be embarrassed at the response.
i don’t agree with some of what you’re saying Eric, nonetheless a fine, rational article.
Which stat line?
I believe he meant F+/-/==/#7/./~/404
Are you joking about that advanced stats line, or just completely misinterpreting the graph?
And, assuming he is not fired, they should absolutely go into next season thinking if Kelly hits 3 losses, he’s fired the next day. I would think that would and should be the baseline. This program will be a huge ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ if he’s retained after a 9-3 or worse season.
Note: I am of the opinion that they should fire him now, but will not be totally distressed if they don’t. If they go 9-3 or worse next year and don’t fire him, then I will be despondent.
I think he misunderstood it. I did the same thing at first glance and was a little confused then realized “better” meant lower on the graph.
Yep, indeed I did, my bad. They said there’d be no math.
Do you really think a terrific coach would come after seeing a 9-3 ND coach get fired, with all the strictures that go with this program? I seriously doubt that. I also seriously doubt ND fires a 9-3 coach.
its more likely IMO that Kelly heads out after that on his own, rather than being fired, but only for perceived greener pastures
I don’t think it’d be likely, no. But not impossible given how things could play out.
The NCAA is just flat out of control. For ND to have to vacate 21 wins for what happened two years ago is a joke. When will somebody in a position of power start to get fed up and fight back. Jenkins and Swarbrick basically said they would be ok with vacating wins when this all started. Well at least it sounds like they have changed that stance from what I have read so far today. The NCAA needs to go, they ended up having to give Penn St their wins back. If this ruling against ND is not changed,the NCAA just needs to go for good. The season from hell continues.
I think they said they would be open to it depending on what turned up from the investigation. Now they know all the facts and don’t think it is warranted.
Hey guys, I got 2 hours of sleep last night from studying, so after class I came home and took a nap and just got finished with dinner so I thought I’d check out what the latest ND news is, did I miss anything?
Cool, you brought pizza!!! Thanks,
Troy! (Probably can’t use the nameTroythis week, right?)First off, that NCAA ruling is the most unjust crock of crap I have seen. I’m honestly stunned by just how inconsistent they are. I’m really not rosy about our chances of getting those wins back – we deserve them but that org is a joke.
Secondly, great points made on here. In no particular order, here’s where I weigh in:
1. Jack is not to blame for being surprised by this season. Everyone from us to ESPN was surprised. And given coaching compensation standard today, giving the extension was a good idea.
2. If Kelly were fired today, the program would be in a much better spot than it would be when Jack took over. He’s made a huge number of changes in infrastructure and process to help. And as bad as this season was, Kelly was a great hire and deserves credit for a lot of the improvement we’ve seen.
3. That said, I think the right move is to fire Kelly now. This season is inexcusable, but the reason to fire him is that I’ve never seen or can think of a coach turn around a program after a season like this in his tenure. And the timing won’t get better for Notre Dame. Texas gets Herman and LSU may not retain Orgeron, but I think we have a great shot at Fleck if we move now. And there are some other coaches like Dan Mullen or Mike Reilly that I’d consider. But a more exhaustive review of names and circumstances is warranted.
4. We can’t fire Kelly after a 9-3 season next year, but that’s just not going to happen. If I believed he had that in him, I’d retain him and hope we got better in the long run. But…
5. Kelly’s teams have never shown mental toughness, or at least, I would say that mental toughness has always been his team’s Achilles heel.
6. Which leads me back to firing Kelly now. Along observables, whether it’s advanced stats, recruiting, program investment, this program is doing great. I really believe, as bad as this season has been, this situation is so correctable. Weis didn’t have training tables. He didn’t have a defensive depth chart. He had an out of control tyrant in res life suspending players. None of those problems exist now.
7. I really appreciate having you guys to talk to. Good night, brothers.
Excellent thread (or whatever we call these extended intelligent conversations between brothers who share the same passion) – as always, thanks to Eric for starting it off, and KG seems in especially fine form. (Needless to say, I concur about everyone’s comments re: the NCAA. Can we sue?) To the point of 2017 and to whether BK could ever come back from the dead — Matt LaFortune and Orlok both specifically asked whether any coach had ever come back from a truly bad season like this to NC levels. I really do feel historical context is critical, since the answer is, yes, surprisingly often; so, permit me to repost something I put out a few weeks ago, mostly courtesy of Lou S: Ohio State’s Woody Hayes (1951-78) In his ninth season (1959), Hayes finished 3-5-1 before two years later returning to the No. 2 spot. Then in his 16th year (1966) he finished 4-5, prompting a plane at one game over The Horseshoe to carry a message that Hayes needed to be fired. Two years later, the Buckeyes won the national title. USC’s John McKay (1960-75) One of the elite coaches in the 1960s began 1970-71 with a 6-6-1 record in the Pac 8. After a 6-4-1 finish in 1970, he began 2-4 in 1971 while battling team dissension. A year later, the Trojans won the national title. Texas’ Darrell Royal (1957-76) After winning the national title in 1963, Royals Longhorns went through 6-4, 7-4, 7-4 marks in 1965-67 while going 12-9 in the SWC, and then opened 0-1-1 in 1968 while completely overhauling the operation with the new Wishbone introduced by assistant Emory Bellard. The Longhorns won the national title a year later. Alabama’s Bear Bryant (1958-82) While going 0-7-1 in bowls from 1967-74, the joke was that Bryant ate his cereal on a plate because “he can’t handle bowls.” In 1969 and 1970 he combined for a 5-8 record in the SEC while going 6-5 and 6-5-1 overall before overhauling his operation, including installing the Wishbone. A year later, he would play for the national title. Georgia’s Vince Dooley (1964-88) In his sixth and seventh seasons with the Bulldogs (1969-70), Dooley saw his teams finish with a collective mark under .500 in the SEC while going 5-5-1 and 5-5 overall. One year later he was 11-1. He hit his nadir in 1977 with a 5-6 mark in year 14, an wasn’t much better in 1979 at 6-5. One year later, with the arrival of Herschel Walker, he was 12-0 and a national champion. More recently: – Kirk Ferentz went 4-8 in 2012, and 12-2 last year. – Gary Patterson went 4-8 in 2013, and 12-1 (w/ a NY6 win) in 2014. – Gary Pinkel went 5-7 in 2012, then 12-2 and 11-3 the next two years. Going back a little further: – Johnny Majors went 5-6 in 1988, and 11-1 the next year – Don James had some very mediocre teams at Washington before finally winning a title in 1991… Read more »
But no Notre Dame coach, which is probably still much more applicable.
Unless you include basketball…we didn’t do too well before the back-to-back Elite Eights.
Maybe we can pull an Iowa next year. I doubt it now, but I’ll likely board that train of ridiculous optimism before the season starts…that is, until half the team is injured and/or placed on academic probation 2 weeks before the first game.
No one is going on academic probation anymore. Instead, 432 people directly and tangentially associated with the football program will be expelled or fired on the spot so that the NCAA doesn’t take away whatever wins ND has left.
Great post, more noise. Thanks!
Moral of the story: BK needs to overhaul the program to run the Wishbone.
Wow — my first ever nifty visual, thanks CSN (wish I could do that!)
So, read Keith Arnold’s article on his site just now, and in the midst of his argument about how the NCAA is full of crap (and I agree), there was this tidbit:
I knew it was a student who was helping players, but everything before made it seem like she was writing the papers for them. There’s a huge difference to me in writing the papers, and merely typing out work they’d done by hand. Not that the second is necessarily okay, depending on the rules, but it’s not dong the intellectual work of the assignment. Hell, buy them a copy of Dragon (a talk-t0-type program my son uses for his school writing assignments, as it’s easier for him to concentrate) and be done with it. Seriously–we’re “going down” over a student trainer taking a written-out assignment and typing it for a few guys? Has anyone else seen details elsewhere?
As I remember from back when it first broke, there was either rumor or assumption that in typing the papers for them she may have also edited and corrected them. Still, though, not nearly the same as writing from whole cloth.
And if she’s a tutor, she’s ultimately supposed to tell the player what needs to be corrected anyway.
Well, that’s the other thing, she wasn’t a tutor – she was a student trainer. This wasn’t the academic support program breaking the rules to help athletes cheat; it was essentially just another student, over whom the football program and the academic support program had no oversight.
Much like Kim Dunbar and the Quarterback Club, the NCAA has used a tenuous-at-best relationship – claiming in this case that as a student trainer she was a university employee and thus this was a more serious infraction – to drop the hammer on Notre Dame. The funny thing is that during the course of these proceedings, the NCAA refined the relevant bylaw to specifically exclude students in roles like this from being considered university employees. That’s why Jenkins and Kelly kept referring to a “discretionary” penalty – they had the precedent and the latitude to treat this less harshly.
Something just occurred to me in reading the above description of the offense: if it was extra typing/editing help, why in heavens name did ND make such a big deal of it in the first place?? Was this the frozen 5 debacle?