The talk about Notre Dame going into the 2018 season at least partially revolved around whether the defense might be as talented as the 2012 unit that propelled the Irish to a 12-0 regular season. Through three games, we don’t have a clear answer on that question, but the season as a whole sure seems a lot like 2012 right now – for better and worse.
The Irish staved off a valiant comeback attempt by Vanderbilt and won the game Saturday, 22-17, to move to 3-0, all by one possession. This game in particular was reminiscent of that year’s Purdue game, another one-possession ‘thriller’ against a team ND was expected to handle. Vandy has a good defense, as far as we know. Their quarterback, Kyle Shurmur, might be the best one ND has faced to date. It remains to be seen how good Vandy is, but just as we had in 2012, there are a lot of unanswered questions surrounding this team. A few of them:
How good is this secondary?
The ND run defense was very good today, holding Vandy to under 100 yards rushing as a team and 3.5 yards per attempt. Then again, the run defense wasn’t in question – the pass defense was.
On the whole, the Notre Dame secondary has probably exceeded expectations so far. Today wasn’t the strongest effort, but Shurmur made some remarkable throws in going for 326 yards, nearly eight yards per attempt. One very unremarkable throw was the one that got picked off by Troy Pride, although even that one worked out for him when Pride was tackled at the 1-yard line and Vandy turned the ensuing three-and-out into a touchdown. Pride made a handful of very good plays to force incompletions, though, and his physical play proved a net positive (even though it also resulted in a fourth-down flag that briefly kept Vandy alive on the final drive).
The best plays, though, went to Jalen Elliott, who poked his hand in and broke up the final fourth-down pass at the last second to preserve the ND win, and Alohi Gilman, who yanked the ball away from a Vandy receiver at the 1-yard line resulting in a touchback. If they don’t pull that off, we’re probably having a very different conversation right now.
We don’t know how good the ND secondary is, and we might not for a while as the Irish don’t face many game-breaking quarterbacks in the next month or so.
Do we have a quarterback?
I’m trying not to obsess over the “Wimbook” phenomenon too much, because everyone else is too, but I have to give it a mention. Brandon Wimbush was pretty much what he always is today – occasionally excellent (his throw to Tony Jones on the wheel route was just gorgeous), dynamic (he had some big runs, though Vandy did well to limit them), and sometimes maddening. That said, 16/26 for 135 plus 84 yards rushing without a turnover isn’t a bad stat line against a good defense. It would’ve been nice if Wimbush could’ve hit on a deep shot, but unsurprisingly the Commodores seemed to be selling out on stopping those.
I do wonder a little bit about the red zone thing. Book seems to have taken on the role of Paul Failla in the early 1990s (I’d say I’m dating myself, but I was only six for this), and today it worked really well, as he lofted a nice TD to Nic Weishar. But taking Wimbush out in those spots does limit the Irish’s options somewhat, and his ability to score with his legs was a huge factor in their impressive red zone offense a year ago. So far, ND hasn’t had the same ability to finish drives – a big part of the reason this game was close to begin with. The Irish might be better off keeping Wimbush in there. But coach Kelly seems wedded to this idea, so I guess I’m shouting into the void there.
Is Tony Jones the answer?
If there’s one big positive development today, it’s the work of Tony Jones. He was terrific, following good blocks, making cuts and going for 118 yards on 17 carries. ND hadn’t gotten much out of its running backs through two weeks, so for Jones to put up that kind of game against a good Vandy defense was a great sign going forward. ND is going to need its running game if it’s going to get much farther into the season without a loss, and if Jones can be the guy to carry the load, that would be tremendous. Jafar Armstrong, who had 46 yards on 11 carries, wasn’t bad either. It was a promising game in terms of the running game.
Is this team good?
Well…I don’t know yet. Ball State getting trounced by IU one week after playing the Irish to one possession wasn’t promising. Neither was a whole ton about this game. But as we used to say, Doesn’t Matter; 3-0. Sure, the Irish haven’t looked imposing. But they’ve won all three games. Hopefully we will see some improvement next week at Wake Forest, a game that is screaming Trap Game with the Stanford/Va Tech double to follow.
(Photo credit: Indianapolis Star)
I think you’re being charitable Andy
Defense was better in 2012. So was the offensive line. And we had Tyler Eiffert. Yeah, I feel like we’re worse than 2012
If it means we beat Stanford on a goal line stand with Bryce Love being held out of the endzone onf 4th down and I get to see David Shaw whine about it, I’m there. I’m soo, soooo there.
I think you forecast 3 or 4 FGs for Yoon in this game. Prescient.
I did, but he didn’t get his 69 yarder. Next week.
Should i feel bad for hoping ND finds a way to 10 wins (bowl included) and BK jumps to the NFL?
Nope. I know its cliche to say but I’m done with Kelly. His game planning this year has been terrible. He’s forcing Wimbush on the offense instead of letting the offense get into a groove running the ball. Jones had a good game and should have had more carries. I’ve never been a fan of Kelly’s offense. RTDB Kelly!!!!
What do you mean by “forcing Wimbush on the offense instead of letting the offense get into a groove running the ball”? Can you give us an example?
I thought the offense looked good today until they got into the red zone.
Ok so I just had a long reply written and somehow it got erased so I’m just going to say that with the games Jones was having (I didn’t get to see a ton of the game, just going by stats and the little I did see) he should have had 25+ carries. It feels like Kelly is trying to kick start WImbush’s arm against “lesser” opponents and it’s not happening, and is actively detrimental to the team. Just my 2 cents.
There were 47 carries vs 26 passing attempts. Maybe it could have been more Jones and less Wimbush but, they aren’t trying to throw it too much. It’s pretty much a rushing based attack still with the occasional pass.
This observation was probably more true for the Ball St game versus Vandy, which I also have no problem with- probably smart against the weakest non P5 team to take some chances and see if the QB can perform with his arm. Unfortunately, he did not and they were back to the basics this game.
No, that’s a win win. He’d clearly be leaving ND in a good position.
Not really. I think “Fire Kelly!” is a bit extreme, but we know what we have in Kelly. Ceiling is being good enough to beat the average to good teams, probably lose to the best teams on the schedule. Bottom floor (without the bottom falling out) is 7-5, 8-4. I think we can throw the 12-0 and the 4-8 seasons out as aberrations on both sides of the ledger, though that they happened shows either is possible, with the right/wrong breaks.
I think there’s no way he goes to the NFL. That window closed, and the only one talking about it is Kelly’s agent most likely. I think our best bet is to hope he’s ready to hang it up in 1-2 years. I won’t be sad to see him go, and will be hopeful they have enough notice to get someone good to replace him. Of course, he could stay another 5-8, who knows. And we’ll get more of the same….
As a quarterbacks coach? Ain’t no NFL team so dumb as to hire Kelly to run their offense, much less be head coach.
Then again, the Browns exist.
It’s week 3, and I still don’t know what to think about the season. My season prediction was 9-3; after Michigan I leaned to the 10-2 sides of that, after last week I leaned to 8-4. Now? I have no idea. The only guaranteed win is…Florida State. We SHOULD beat Wake, Pitt, Navy, and Syracuse, but you can’t tell me right now that we couldn’t also lose to any of them. I’m inclined to think we lose to at least one of them. Stanford and VT look like losses right now. USC…shrug? We’ll see.
We’re 3-0, and if the offense can get it together then we’ll be fine. But it’s getting really hard to watch other offenses overcome all the things we keep having as “problems.” And then we keep trying this weird Book at the goal line thing, which at this point everyone knows is a set up because otherwise it makes no sense. I just don’t know what we’re doing. I think all the pieces are there. The coaching has been not great. Wimbush could be a good QB if utilized properly, or coaching helped improve him. But we’re not seeing it. So I guess I’m in the camp of hoping BK decides to move on soon. Let Clark Lea stay under the next guy, because I think our D is good and only going to improve as Lea gets more experience. But yeah…I’m kinda tired of sweating games against Ball State and Vandy.
Yeah I dont get why we struggle with things other lesser teams seem to overcome with little effort. Why has Brian Kelly never gotten better than serviceable QB play? Why cant we get any consistency on offense year to year? Why does Brian Kelly act like reporters are stupid when his team played like shit and damn near messed around and lost against Ball Fing State? Hopefully a few years of consistency with Long will help. I dont know
I think Kelly is a terrible QB coach. He either doesn’t develop or destroys them. He must have been lucky at Cincinnati.
Yeah his ND offenses have never sniffed his Cincy offenses. I mean if any of his ND teams could have gotten the level of play of his backup in his last year at Cincy, it would have been a significant upgrade. Terrible is a bit much though. Davie, Weis, and Willingham. These are terrible coaches. Kelly’s results at ND have been much better than those, which is better than nothing. His depth chart currently is pretty healthy, if he could just do something with his offense for once.
Yeah, I’m specifically referring to his QB coaching, not his total offense coaching
I meant the level of qb play if his backup qb…..
If ND played Cincy’s schedule we’d have seen quite a few seasons of “strong offense” I’m sure.
Dude the void needs to be shouted into. Changing to a cold qb in the red zone is dumb as hell. Where do they even get the effrontery. If Wimbush cant run the O in the red zone, maybe he just cant run the O.
Seriously, this.
Mid-second quarter comment from my seven year old: “Notre Dame’s defense guys are really good. I wish the offense guys were good too”
Better analysis than Flutie.
I think the defense is in the same ballpark as 2012. Vandy receivers made some incredible catches under duress, and we were unlucky on at least one of those PI’s. Also, Vandy O-line holding was absolutely ridiculous, imo.
I have been sitting here and trying to come up with some rationale for the QB switch and can’t come up with one. Book is decently solid coming off the bench, but it’s not like he is that monster on OU a few years back (Bell?) or a Tebow or something. I don’t see how that can positively affect BW’s confidence. It’s a mystery to me.
I’m watching TCU-tOSU right now, and I know part of it is the hangover from feeling bad about our game, but man, both these teams look like they’d shred us so badly right now. TCU’s DB’s are SICK in coverage–everything is contested, and they’re in perfect position almost every pass that isn’t a dumpoff in the flat. tOSU’s receivers are making a few plays, just on pure athletic talent, but it’s been a slog for them. Both QBs look so much better than Wimbush it’s not even funny. Sure, there have been mistakes here and there, but in general when one side doesn’t make a play, it’s because the other side did something to cause it. If you’re not watching, this is darn good football.
No kidding, and both team’s tempo would leave us (and most teams) in the dust.
By the way, did you see Tua T. today? Kid has a laser arm and can run.
Today?(Saturday), this was apparent when the kid took over in the NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP game and immediately made an impact and almost single handily won that game. It immediately made me wonder why Saban had stuck with Hurt for so long.
I was thinking the same thing watching that game. Both teams look SO much faster than we do. Also the QB at Oklahoma is what I thought we were getting with Wimbush.
I see a few parallels to 2012, but during the game I had the thought that this feels more like the beginning of 2010. 2012 was inspiring and fun from the beginning. 2010 was full of questions, it was sloppy, it was infuriating, and it didn’t inspire much confidence in the future. I’m being a bit dramatic, but this just feels like the beginning of 2010 if ND got enough breaks to win.
I should clarify that the first 10 minutes of each game have felt great. They start well and look like they’ve shaken off last week, then the all too familiar slog sets in.
These three teams varied wildly in talent level. And they all looked and felt the same.
I’m not ready for doomsday yet. But I might have one foot on the #FireKelly/#BookClub train.
And Are we sure Chip Long was a good hire? I’m not being snarky. That’s a genuine question for people that actually know about how football works. Because I don’t, really.
Winning three straight to start the season including one against what looks like a pretty good Michigan team feels like starting the season 1-2 and only beating Purdue? I’m going to strongly disagree with that.
2012 we started 3-0 one our way to 12-0 and everyone was losing their minds that we only beat Purdue by 3. That’s pretty much exactly where we are today. Chin up just a bit, eh?
Yes but in 2012 we also had a defense that didn’t allow a rushing TD until something like the 7th game, and had already shown that our offense was capable with a 50-10 win over Navy
I’m probably going to say this at least one other spot too, but the offensive line was /MUCH/ better yesterday than the first two games. If that’s real improvement and not just that Vandy was over matched then the offense has real room to grow.
It’s an unanswered question, but if the defense is pretty good and the offense is middling but improving there aren’t a bunch of teams on our schedule before December that outclass us in any observable way.
USC is getting better but has dropped two games in exchange for lessons. This is better.
I noticed the oline as well. Averaging 5 yards a rush is good, especially when Tony Jones does not do long runs.
i’ll happily take the chunks of 17 and 20 though!
Wimbush 0 turnovers. 0 sacks, 82 yards rushing. He is who he is but he’s able to find a way to win games and that’s important.
Tony Jones often slammed on the internet, but 17 carries 118 yards. 2 catches 56 yards. Very happy for him, he was definitely the offensive player of the game.
O-line: quietly better than last week. Much better holes. Much less pressure, so it seemed (not sure if that’s Vandy’s scheme or what). Either way, a step forward and something to build on IMO.
Defense: very, very excellent, top to bottom at all levels. Carrying the team, but look capable doing so with their talent and focus. Great game by secondary from Love to Gillman and Pride.
Special teams: better. Kicked it in bounds. Yoon solid. Newsome outstanding. Let’s go.
I don’t think this team could beat the Bama/Clemson/tOSU/Georgia types, but they battle. Not perfect but if they get to the bye week at 6-1 (@WF, Stan, @VT, Pitt) that’s on track for at least a NY6 bowl and that’s still promising. And maybe they find a way to keep winning. Haven’t really felt they were in any danger at any point really so far, though obviously not terribly impressive. It’s not pretty but a win is a win is a win.
Gotta hope they rise to the occasion of Stanford, VT like they rose to it for Michigan. Nothing else really matters.
A) An NY6 bowl should be a minimum expectation right now, if only because this schedule looks really bad. We have 2 good teams left, unless you want to count Syracuse. It’s too bad they’re in consecutive weeks.
B) I should’ve mentioned Newsome. He was great all day, and he kicked that last ball like it insulted his mom.
Yeah, if the offense finds a way to get, it’s conceivable that we could beat FSU and USC worse than Ball St and Vandy
My chief question about the offense at this point is whether the return of Dexter for the Stanford game can provide a spark. It’s the only big change I can conceive of. But otherwise, I agree with your points. Incremenetal improvements no doubt, but still with an inability to put up many points
Surprised no one has mentioned it: It seems that Book is not specifically the “Red Zone Guy,” but the “Short Yardage Guy.” (He came in on a 3rd and short at something like our own 30 yard line too iirc.) Such situations just happen to occur a lot in the red zone.
While Book often is handing the ball off, I still see this as the coaching staff recognizing that they can’t rely on Wimbush’s arm for the short throw. So you either get:
—Book: Can call a run with a RB, or pass (slants, bubble screens, fades etc.)
—Wimbush: Can call a run with RB or a run with QB.
It’s debatable which is better, but I can understand what the coaches are doing if this is the case.
Book is adequate running the ball, and might not be at much (if any) disadvantage to Wimbush in a short yardage situation where the defense is selling out to stop the run. The only thing he’d really be giving up is the possibility of a home run if he were to break through the line.
I absolutely buy Book as a short yardage guy. I feel like it’s a situation that least plays to Wimbush’s strengths (open field running, mid-range passing) and most plays to his weaknesses.
Not just short yardage, but also under center. The only time Wimbush went under center was at the 1 yd line when he just snuck it to try to get 1 yard (makes sense as he appears to have a much stronger leg drive). Every other short yardage, where they wanted a QB under center was Book.
I am really tired of Kelly. My reasoning is that the team, too often, does stuff that is totally mystifying, and it appears to be the product of coaching as opposed to a deficit of the players (the players are not without blame).
My first example is the substitution of Ian Book when we’re near the goal line. The first time it occurred, it was because Wimbush got poked in the eye. But, they keep doing it. Why would we remove one of our greatest threats when we’re close to scoring (Wimbush’s ability to scramble)? It makes no sense to me. It feels like strategy for the sake of strategy.
My second example is a more long-term malaise. How often do we see inferior teams hang around ND to turn what should be a comfortable win into a close win? Last year was an outlier (which is why it was so pleasant to watch), but this is a phenomenon that is a hallmark of the Kelly years. And when it is happening, the team appears to be helpless to reverse the course.
Yesterday, there were two plays that made us winners. First, there was the Alohi Gilman strip, which was a miracle play. Second, there was Vandy’s pass play on fourth down that was caught but not controlled all the way to the ground late in the 4th quarter. Flutie was right (typing those words is painful) that, if the Vandy QB had just thrown the ball to the outside of the receiver rather than over his head, the pass is likely complete and Vandy has a chance to score and take the lead. How much confidence would you have had in our ability to score in the 4th, had Vandy taken the lead? I didn’t have much.
In short, we frequently look lethargic and incapable against lesser teams. This is a matter of coaching, I suspect. It’s time for a change. I’m not thrilled to say that because I don’t like coaching changes, but it’s time. There is no way you let Kelly go from this team, this year (barring a total collapse) with a 3-0 start.
I do think Kelly has been successful in an important respect. When he was hired, the program was in chaos and (thanks at least in part to Urban Meyer) I suspect it was no longer thought of as a desirable head coaching position. It’s still a harder position than at a school where academics is an afterthought at best, but I think we’ve had enough success under Kelly that an up and coming head coach would find ND an attractive place to come.
This pretty much sums up my feelings nicely. I don’t know that I’d say I’m “tired” of Kelly, but I am tired of expecting more than we’re going to get out of this team. I’m tired of the playing down to bad teams when other teams with comparable or even lesser “talent” blow those same opponents out. And if you go back, there’s always a head-scratching thing about the team and why they do something, whether it’s QB handling or not firing BVG earlier when anyone could see he wasn’t getting it done to the way our special teams best option is a version of Fair Catch Goodman.
I agree Kelly has made it better than what Weis left it, and we could be an attractive place for the right coach if we went aggressively after them. If I were Jack I’d be having serious conversations with Brian about what he sees for the future, and gauging interest/weighing options behind the scenes for when BK “retires.” Because last year is about as good as I see it getting.
My instant reaction:
Our best WRs are RBs. Our best RB is a QB (though I liked what I saw from Tony Jones today). And I’m not convinced the team actually has a QB. Fire Del Alexander. Keep a close eye on Long and TFR. Quinn…we’ll see how the season shakes out and how recruiting goes.
After a day to relax…yeah, these are still my thoughts. This is the team I expected to see all offseason and is why I predicted 8-4. But there’s already been a lot of chaos this season and ND is still 3-0. Doesn’t have to be pretty if they keep winning.
I don’t think our defense is as good as everyone else thinks it is. They have played 3 great halves, and 3 below average halves. They are good, good enough to win 10 games if our offense improves to 2012 levels (not a big reach). But I think comparing them to 2012 is crazy.
Excluding Bama, we only let up 14+ to Purdue (17), BYU (14), Pitt (26 in OT). The 2012 defense was really really really good. This team is nowhere near that.