The game started harmlessly enough. At first, it seemed like both Notre Dame and Michigan State were feeling each other out before Notre Dame mounted a touchdown drive to take an important lead. Then in the second quarter things went completely off the rails for the Irish as the Spartans built a lead that was too much to overcome. As 7-point home favorites Notre Dame fell at night in front of its own fans to move to 1-2 in this early season.

Brian VanGorder

I recently wrote about the Age of Offense and how hard it is to consistently play good defense. The thing is it’s fine to get lit up once in a while. Just this past weekend Florida State, Alabama, and Oklahoma got trashed by their opposing offenses. Narduzzi just gave up 640 yards. Charlie Strong just gave up 50 points. I’m completely okay with a couple poor performances per year, especially if they are against good competition. These things happen in today’s game.

There are a couple promising receivers (Donnie Corley, for example) at Michigan State and L.J. Scott is a nice if not a little overrated young running back. However, I’m not sure there is anyone on the Spartans offense that will be All-Big Ten and they more or less had their way with the Notre Dame defense after a slow start and before going into a conservative shell following a big lead.

This kind of crap is not okay.

I like yards per play as a measurement a lot more than total points or even yardage. Over Notre Dame’s last 23 games they have held opponents under 5.0 YPP just 5 times:

Texas, 2015 (3.13)
Georgia Tech, 2015 (4.75)
Clemson, 2015 (4.63)
Temple, 2015 (4.76)
Wake Forest, 2015 (4.59)

I’d say 99 times out of 100 if we played Clemson in a non-hurricane we are not keeping them below 5.0 which leaves one great performance against a highly dysfunctional Power 5 offense, a couple of enormously over-matched offenses in terms of talent, and one really quality shut down of Georgia Tech (remember, they had lots of garbage time success).

It’s kind of lost now but things against Michigan State started out pretty well. The Spartans first 5 series featured 3 punts, an interception, and one near-interception that was lucky* to be turned into a touchdown. What’s more, L.J. Scott was held completely in check opening the game with runs of 5, 3, 2, 1, 4, -2, -1, and 4 yards to start.

Crap, MSU went the first 20:30 of the game without scoring and didn’t score for the last 18:45 of the contest. Essentially a little under a quarter and a half absolutely crippled the Irish.

*By the way, it’s one thing to play poorly but when things are patently cooked for a coach you start to see those weird moments when seemingly great plays get turned into utter crap.

bvgno

From that horrendously momentum swinging bounce off Boykin’s leg-turned interception haha no touchdown for Michigan State the Irish have up 9.90 yards per play over the next 33 offensive snaps from the Spartans. How does that happen? How do things go from solid to suddenly looking like an all-star team is playing against this defense?

This isn’t working and I’m completely fine with firing VanGorder right now. There’s nothing worse than being bad and uninteresting. Literally no one wants to sit through the final 10 games with a VanGorder defense. A couple of weeks ago I talked about the pretty poor defensive staff as a whole and how there isn’t a quality in-house interim leader to take over this defense. There’s also something to be said about making a move just to make a move and quieting the masses. However, we’re beyond that point. I’m not sure it can get worse on defense and at least a change would be interesting to watch.

Brian Kelly

The other day I was driving home from work when my mind floated to that place thinking about Notre Dame where I wonder what it would take for a loss here or there not to have such deep meaning anymore. You know what feeling? For 20 years it’s always felt like every loss was a potential program crusher and big victories (however few that came our way) were simply fleeting.

It felt like during the early part of the 2013 season Notre Dame was in a happy place. We lost a wild one at Michigan which was frustrating but I think back to that home loss to Oklahoma, too. We played okay, rebounded after a disastrous start and just didn’t have it that day. The future still felt completely fine…then we’d later lose to Pitt and things really haven’t been the same.

This program could use a breather year, of sorts. A year where there could be 4 or even 5 losses and everyone, from Notre Dame fans to the national media, think the next year will be a bounce back season no worries. One of my big goals to rebuilding Notre Dame was having back-to-back 10+ win seasons. Just to freaking relax for once!

Well, Brian Kelly has lost 4 out of his last 5 games and he’s very likely not winning 10 games for the second year in a row. There will be no breather year in 2017, no patience for a rebuilding year if it’s needed. Through 81 career games with the Irish he’s won 69.1% of his games. The 2012 season was a magical run but that ended 42 games ago and Notre Dame still hasn’t won a major bowl game (or even a bowl game of great significance if you want to lower the bar slightly) and more damning (if Texas and MSU stay ranked) this program is 1-9 in its last 10 games against ranked opponents.

Are we seeing the beginning of the end for Brian Kelly at Notre Dame? It’s tough to say but the signs aren’t particularly encouraging right now. For one thing, we can very likely assume the administration on campus won’t be super proactive meaning Kelly’s job is safe through 2017 at minimum. The super frustrating thing is that instead of maybe a program reaching into the Top 5 or even Top 10 while checking off some big goals over the next 23 games we could be entering a time of great upheaval instead.

I’ve said this for the last 6 years: I expect the end stages of the Brian Kelly era to be very dark for Irish fans. If only because the firings of Davie, Willingham, and Weis were easy, no-brainer decisions. Some folks may not have liked that those decisions came a year or two too long but in the end they were simple inevitable decisions. We’re in a different place today. Right now it’s “we’re losing too many big games” “this shouldn’t happening in year seven” and this coach “won’t win a championship.” It’s just a totally different set of arguments than the past where the whole country was laughing.

Plus, no one has had a tenure quite like Kelly’s at Notre Dame, at least while most of us have been alive. This might be a 7-5 season but they won’t fire Kelly for it which will bring plenty of criticism. Then next year there will be a new DC which will bring hope and more bickering about how much of a leash Kelly should get with that project. One more year only? “He needs a second year to prove this DC can get his system fully installed.” It’s coming soon.

CEO Coach to the Podium

Brian Kelly is entirely fallible when Notre Dame is playing on Saturday. We see every wart, all the wrong choices, and we have a keen sense of what he does and doesn’t do well.  Be that as it may, Kelly has always shown a penchant for being a strong CEO head coach who consistently puts his program in a position to win, get better, or reload.

The choice of bringing VanGorder to Notre Dame is looking like a massive mistake. The questions moving forward are whether he can rectify this problem and if that solution is enough to keep him around long-term in South Bend.

To be honest I’m not sure he’s all that comfortable in the position he’s at right now with Notre Dame. Kelly was in kind of a similar situation at Grand Valley State where he had very good but not great success for a decade and was on the hot seat. Then he adopted a wide open spread offense, ripped off a 41-2 record, and began his cycle of quickly rebuilding Central Michigan and Cincinnati. He’s not losing 2 games over 3 years at Notre Dame in the future, a drastic offensive (or maybe defensive!??) overhaul is unlikely to be a magic potion, and Kelly isn’t his late 30’s anymore.

On Sunday, the head coach at Notre Dame put on a brave face and stood up publicly for his defensive coordinator. Without a loss to a really poor team (may I suggest Syracuse in a couple weeks?) it appears VanGorder’s stay will be continued.

So, here’s the deal. The program is trending in a bad direction and the wolves are going to keep circling while cackling louder this season. Kelly has also built things up where the wolves want to hang him for not being a championship-level coach. It’s mostly a thankless job at this point because losing 4 out of 5 and having so many people feeling like Irish football is in the dumps doesn’t satiate the desires for ultimate glory.

At some point it was highly likely that a restlessness was going to settle in with Kelly as he had the program close to greatness but couldn’t get over the hump. With the trajectory of 2016 and an unwillingness to cut VanGorder loose now he’s just welcomed aboard a whole host of new critics who are going to want him gone for less than Tom Herman, or whomever is this off-seasons Next Great Thing.

I can’t help but think that a huge part of the future will be convincing (or is it hoping?) DeShone Kizer wants to return for 2017. Let’s pray he’s really set on getting his degree in 4 years, or feels like he needs another year of seasoning, or doesn’t want to play for the Browns just yet. Let’s pray Kizer has some faith left in the program by the end of the year.

Oh, There Was a Game to Talk About

Lots of talk about the lack of a run game. Of course, it was disappointing but not shocking. Remember, we know what Kelly is and is not at this point. Something in the 3.5 YPC range was probably the absolute best we would have seen out of this game. The offense never got into a rhythm when the score was close in the first half and they didn’t run many plays before falling behind. Moreover, they only gave 6 carries to running backs in the second half. Given how the game unfolded 43 yards on 16 carries from Adams/Folston wasn’t surprising. This easily puts to rest that the Irish have the best offensive line in the country.

Equanimeous St. Brown had two drops in this game and it’s becoming a bit of a problem. On the other hand, he’s on pace for a 1,000 yard season so that’s cool.

Durham Smythe doubled the tight end reception total on the year all the way to 2 catches–and it was a nice touchdown, too! Smythe also had one of the least athletic plays in recent memory after tripping over air near the goal line on a throw from Kizer.

With all of Sanders’ cut-backs we felt due for a lost fumble, to be honest. This is going to be a challenging part of his future as a smaller player who will open himself up to tackles from chasing linebackers and linemen.

claypool

The momentum swing in this game was about as drastic as I’ve ever seen. Looking back, the first drive of the 2nd quarter while leading 7-0 having just picked off O’Connor was super disappointing. I wish the Irish had that one back instead of a quick, fruitless 3 & out. Minutes later we had the dumb Boykin “fumble”, a quick touchdown stolen right out of Luke’s hands, and a fumble by Sanders. It all unraveled from there. I also wonder how things change if Claypool hauls in the Hail Mary at the end of the half which would have made it 15-13 pending the PAT. It was SO close. Also, credit Claypool for a clutch 33-yard reception.

I’m a little surprised how Josh Adams went from the 1B option to really being the force-fed playmaker in this game. He got 35.5% of all the offensive touches! The coaching staff really seemed to realize what most of us had in the first two weeks that Folston wasn’t playing very well.

Ryan Newsome had a terrible first punt and then played like an All-American the rest of the game with 3 punts inside the State 20-yard line and a booming 71-yard punt. It’s too bad the Irish couldn’t take advantage of these numerous field flips–only 3 more touchdown drives allowed of 75+ yards. We should think long and hard about not punting once we get past our 40-yard line.

We should have gone for it on 4th and 7 from our own 32-yard line but it was obvious the sack on third down totally flustered everyone. Kizer deserves some blame here, too. In that moment on third down with one more play possible in the comeback the last thing (besides a turnover) is a really bad sack. Still, I hate that with this Kelly/Denbrock/Sanford team of playcallers they weren’t ready for that scenario, quickly called a timeout, and then punted.

Nyles Morgan really seems to be coming into his own as a good linebacker. He’s far from perfect but put up 8 solo tackles and is good for a couple hard and loud tackles per game.

I’m sure there will be plenty of bad film to review for everyone on defense. Still, I thought this was Jerry Tillery’s best game in a Notre Dame uniform from a disruption standpoint. He had a couple Sheldon Day-esque physical domination tackles for loss.

Zero sacks and 14 tackles for loss (97th nationally) through 3 games. The blown coverages are a little better so far this year, but the gap control and tackling have been so awful. Those two areas are also ones that could benefit the most from a different coach and better teaching.

Sneaky big moment in this game was Kizer’s run for first down while the score was still 8-7 and the Irish were digging themselves out from their own goal line. The play was reviewed and upheld even though I think he got the first down. Up next, Newsome’s 71-yard punt and a damn 92-yard touchdown drive by Michigan State.

kizermsu

I actually thought Kizer was okay in the first half. The lack of a rhythm was a big deal as Michigan State held the ball for 6 more minutes and limited the Irish to just 27 offensive snaps before the break. What really hurt was the beginning of the second half when the Spartans were beginning their run. Kizer went 1 for 5 on consecutive series with several ugly, off-the-mark throws and an interception. Suddenly, a one-score game became 29-7 real quick.