Our previous installment in this series recognized how Jonas Gray had a year for the ages seemingly out of nowhere and today we look at the running back success rate for Notre Dame’s surprising run through an undefeated regular season.

Looking back at the run game for 2012 a couple of story lines remain at the forefront. First, was the presence of Everett Golson and the first dual-threat quarterback of the Brian Kelly era. Secondly, there were some fierce debates during and after this season about who had the better campaign: Theo Riddick or Cierre Wood?

Run Success Definition

A play counts as a success if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third or fourth down. If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%. If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%.

2012 Rushing Stats

Riddick, 190 attempts, 917 yards, 4.83 average, 5 TD
Wood, 114 attempts, 742 yards, 6.51 average, 4 TD
Atkinson, 51 attempts, 361 yards, 7.08 average, 5 TD
McDaniel, 23 attempts, 125 yards, 5.43 average, 1 TD

Remember the context heading into 2012. Cierre Wood had a very strong 2011 with massive improvement in run success but was suspended for the first two games of 2012. Meanwhile, Theo Riddick was a productive slot receiver but struggled late in 2011 when he was moved to running back.

Run Success (2012)

Riddick vs. Wood Who’s the Winner?

It’s a tough call. Obviously, Wood had a much better rushing average and generally was more explosive. But, he was suspended and didn’t have to carry the load as much as Riddick. On the flip side, Riddick wasn’t really explosive and lacked top end speed yet his run success rate was still in the ballpark of Wood’s.

I’d give the edge to Riddick due to a few factors. First, he was more consistent and dependable. Secondly, his third down ability was phenomenal with 16 successful runs. Remember for 2010-11 it was Wood as the preferred third down back and for 2012 it was Riddick given that responsibility. Lastly, we haven’t talked about catching the ball in this series but it’s tough to ignore Riddick’s 330-yard edge in this department.

A Bright Future?

Cierre Wood had one more year of eligibility following 2012 but decided to forego a return to South Bend in favor of the NFL. Although it’s not totally fair, the success of Riddick vs. Wood in the NFL is also tough to ignore when looking back at 2012. Wood wasn’t able to stick on a NFL roster this past season and was recently signed by the Hamilton Tiger Cats in the CFL. Through 4 post-Notre Dame seasons Wood has 12 total yards as a professional. Riddick has 1,976 total yards.

The relative success of George Atkinson and Cam McDaniel seem to suggest a bright future for the Irish despite losing their top two running backs. However, as we’ll see in the next installment this wouldn’t be the case.

McDaniel in particular is a good example of a small sample size being deceiving. All but 2 of his successful runs came in garbage time against Navy and Miami.

Other Fun Notes

The Irish offense in 2012 was very good at times but a certain look at running back success rate kind of proves just how much this team was carried by the defense. Notre Dame had 6(!!) games during the regular season in which the RB success rate was 50% or worse. Obviously, the Irish won all of those games, including a stretch in games 2-4 with close victories over rivals.

60 successful running back carries came in just two games against Navy and Miami. I would bet strongly this is the highest two-game stretch in any single season under Brian Kelly.

Remember the jet lag issues coming back from Ireland? That Purdue game was quite the doozy. Not only was the lack of a running game an embarrassment (7 successful RB runs total) but the lack of commitment was astonishing. Just 2 out of the first 20 plays from scrimmage for the Irish were carries for the running back.

Theo emerged as a clutch/consistent/tough runner pretty quickly in 2012 converting his first 7 third down attempts on the season. His first failed run was a 3rd & 11 against Michigan State.

Many remember Cierre Wood’s overtime fumble as he crossed the goal line against Pittsburgh. Earlier in that game a huge momentum turning series ended with 3 straight unsuccessful goal line carries from Riddick. It appeared Riddick scored on first down but the touchdown was overturned upon review. The Irish ultimately settled for a field goal and a brief 6-3 lead.

Riddick’s performance in the regular season finale (14 successful runs to 6 unsuccessful) against USC. was a treat to watch. Most importantly, in a tight game he finished with the contest with 6 straight successful runs.

We kind of knew the Irish defense needed an all-world effort to beat Alabama. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen. For the offense, they chased the Tide on the scoreboard all evening and finished with just 5 successful running back carries to 9 unsuccessful runs.

Most Successful Runs in a Win: 31, Miami
Most Successful Runs in a Loss: 5, Alabama
Fewest Successful Runs in a Win: 7, Purdue
Fewest Successful Runs in a Loss: 5, Alabama
3rd/4th Down Success Rate: 65.7%