The 2016 college football season officially got under way last Friday in Australia (Cal beat Hawaii 51-31) and now the first full weekend is upon us. Remember, this weekend is so action-packed that the Irish will have to wait until Sunday night to get the new campaign started.

So, the bright lights in Texas await Notre Dame as the Irish open the season with a true road game for the first time since 2006 when a pesky Georgia Tech team nearly upset Notre Dame. The heat has always been turned up for Charlie Strong and now things are really starting to warm. The head coach enters his 3rd season with the Horns and carries with him 14 losses in 25 games, including 9 by double-digits.

Notre Dame (-3.5) at Texas

Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Austin, Texas
Date: Sunday, September 4, 2016
Kickoff: 7:30 PM ET
Television: ABC
Series: 9-2-0 Notre Dame

There is a sliver of hope that Strong’s turnaround is coming in 2016 off the back of a regular season finale upset of Baylor last year and several defections from Baylor’s recruiting class moving to Austin this summer. That moved Texas up to the No. 7 overall class in the country complete with a handful of high-impact freshmen.

However, the promise with Texas is also a caution as to why any turnaround might not be easy or completely effective. It’s year three and true freshmen are not only expected to compete for two-deep positions but also start at key positions.

3 Matchups to Watch

Notre Dame defensive line interior vs. Texas offensive line interior

This should be a major, major, major advantage for Notre Dame. The trio of Jones/Cage/Tillery should dominate this game and cause massive problems for Texas. More on this below.

Notre Dame receivers vs. Texas secondary

If there’s a clear matchup strength for Texas it might be right here. Partly due to the excessive inexperience from the Irish wideouts–several of whom will be making their career debuts as reliable contributors. Also, the Horns come in with a lot of positive vibes surrounding a secondary that features 6 players who started at least one game in 2015.

The ceiling is really high at corner, yet Texas is still dealing with some young bucks all the same. Holton Hill (49 tackles, 4 PBU) and Davante Davis (35 tackles, 7 PBU) combined for 13 starts last year and are among the top young corners in the Big 12 but they are still just true sophomores. They’ll be backed up by 6th-year senior Sheroid Evans who hasn’t played a game in several years and another true sophomore Kris Boyd who was one of many freshmen thrust onto the field in 2015.

Safety isn’t quite as young. Former walk-on Dylan Haines (47 tackles, 3 PBU) returns for his 5th-year and will line up next to junior Jason Hall (51 tackles, 2 PBU). However, the selections after these two upperclassmen dips back into the youth. Sophomore P.J. Locke (14 tackles, 1 PBU) has been deployed as a nickel corner while another sophomore DeShon Elliott (13 tackles, 2 INT) has been pushing for reps at free safety behind Hall. Also, watch out for true freshman Brandon Jones (.978 Composite, No. 1 safety) who has been picking up steam in the defense and could be deployed in a nickel or dime role.

Brian VanGorder vs. Sterlin Gilbert

Say what you will about VanGorder, he comes into this game knowing about the whooping he put on Texas last year. To recap: 60 rushing yards, 163 total yards, and 3.13 yards per play–all lowest totals for the season by the Horns and causing the firing of their offensive coordinator.

In steps new OC Sterlin Gilbert who as recent as 2011 was still coaching high school football but has since moved his way up through OC/QB gigs at Eastern Illinois, Bowling Green, and Tulsa. The question is whether he can institute major changes at Texas, and more importantly for our purposes, whether he can do so straight out of the gate to open the season.

The one thing we know pretty much for sure is that Texas will move quickly. Over the last two seasons Gilbert has directed offenses that ran 1,103 and 1,083 plays–or 513 more than Texas during that 2014-15 time frame.

Due to the roster layout Gilbert should run the ball a lot. The questions for Texas is if they can run effectively enough to give tenuous quarterback personnel a chance to move the ball through the air. Gilbert’s philosophies and tempo should open some holes in the run game but the 41 sacks surrendered last year by Tulsa provides enough caution that if the run game isn’t humming things could get ugly behind a very average Texas offensive line.

2 Sides of the Line

It’s been something just north of a disaster off-season for the Longhorn offensive line. First, backup tackle Buck Major had to shut down his redshirt freshman campaign after suffering a ruptured tendon in his finger. Also, heading into the opener a trio of linemen have been dealing with various levels of ankle sprains.

Projected starting center and early enrollee freshman Zach Shackelford (6-3, 290) is probable to play but is not likely to be 100% healthy. If he can’t go or proves ineffective the Horns will turn to redshirt sophomore Jake McMillon (6-3, 300) who participated on special teams last year.

Patrick Vahe (6-3, 320) is coming off 10 starts as a true freshman from a year ago on the right side and flips over to left guard. His ankle injury doesn’t appear to be serious and he should be close to fully healthy on Sunday. Former JUCO product and senior right tackle Tristen Nickelson (6-9, 322) made 3 starts last year and is trying to shake off an ankle injury, as well.

Rounding out to the front is sophomore left tackle Connor Williams (6-6, 288) who started every game last year and senior right guard Kent Perkins (6-5, 320) who moves inside from tackle where he made 10 starts in 2015. Both Vahe and Williams garnered freshmen All-American honors a year ago but there were injuries both in the spring and fall that have prevented Texas from gaining any cohesion among this unit. This should not be a unit clicking on all cylinders Sunday night.

The Texas defensive line is solid. On the strong-side they’ll be looking to rotate 5th-year senior Bryce Cottrell (6-2, 260) and sophomore Charles Omenihu (6-6, 254). The former had a pretty good 2015 (27 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 4 sacks) while Omenihu is largely unproven after a freshman season of 17 tackles.

The weak-side “Fox” position could see Texas use a trio of players: redshirt junior Naashon Hughes (6-4, 237), converted linebacker sophomore Breckyn Hager (6-3, 227), or true freshman Malcolm Roach (6-2, 263). Hughes is the returning starter and was quite productive last year (57 tackles, 9 TFL, 5.5 sacks) so he should get most of the snaps. Of course, superstar linebacker Malik Jefferson (61 tackles, 7 TFL, 2 sacks) will be used as a pass-rusher quite frequently.

The interior has many more questions beyond 5th-year senior Paul Boyette (6-3, 317) who is a good player and returning starter coming off 37 tackles, 8 TFL, and 3 sacks. He’ll be backed up by redshirt sophomore Chris Nelson (6-1, 297) who made 7 tackles last year.

At the other tackle spot Texas could rotate junior Poona Ford (5-11, 303), freshman Jordan Elliott (6-4, 318), or freshman Gerald Wilbon (6-2, 329). Expect Ford to get most of the reps–he was decent last year with 39 tackles, 6 TFL, and 2.5 sacks.

Overall, a good attacking defensive line containing a couple guys with all-conference potential but no real serious difference makers. They’re also under-sized against Notre Dame’s front, especially on the edges, and will have to show they can improve upon last year when teams ran the ball all over the Horns. Only 3 other Power 5 teams faced more carries from opposing offenses and Texas gave up 200+ rushing yards in 8 games last year.

1 Prediction

This is a funny, odd, and weird Texas team to predict especially in game one of the season. Part of me looks at the spread in this game and strongly disagrees that Texas has closed the gap this much with Notre Dame this off-season. Returning starters are important but the Irish have just as many upperclassmen “new” starters (Morgan, Martini, Weishar, Hunter, Folston, etc.) who have played as much (or more) football than a lot of Texas’ glut of true sophomore returning starters.

Texas is still very young, breaking in a ton of new coaches, revamped their offense again, and are missing proven stars at several levels on both sides of the ball. Charlie Strong may be making progress turning around the program and rebuilding the Horns’ image but I don’t believe things have lined up for a breakthrough just yet.

For example, I tend to think Sterlin Gilbert is a little unproven to be talked about as this offensive wunderkind (Tulsa was 51st in S&P offense last year and Bowling Green 87th in 2014) and even if he is that kind of coach he’s dealing with a really sub-par situation on the offense line and at quarterback. The Horns have been reliving a nightmare in recent times of thinking they’ve found the answer at OC and each time it turns into a flop. Gilbert probably has a bright future but if you dig into his resume he’s really unproven with a resume that isn’t THAT impressive.

There are certain segments of Texas to like, for sure. Recruiting picked up hard last cycle, egged on by the collapse of Baylor’s class. Texas did beat those Bears (not really full-strength Baylor, but still) the last time they took the field and upset Oklahoma in addition to a couple other quality efforts.

I’m just not sure I’m buying a mostly young bunch of returning starters on defense being so much different than last year (particularly in the first game) and the defensive-minded Strong overseeing an offense completely out of his comfort zone mixed with a roster situation poor enough where true freshmen could start at quarterback and center.

I’m assuming Tyrone Swoopes is going to get the start and likely play a series or two to see how it goes. I just can’t see Strong green-lighting Buechele straight away.

Swoopes 18-Wheeler Package

18wheeler

Gilbert’s system is known for being spartan-like in its simplicity and forcing the quarterback’s decision making to be as easy as possible. Hence the reason why Swoopes–who has struggled enormously picking up passing concepts–has been able to stay in this QB competition. Notre Dame’s goal should be to limit Texas’ running ability via their tempo offense and try their best to confuse Swoopes. It worked really well last year.

And if they decide to use the “18 Wheeler Package” that plays right into Notre Dame’s strengths.

I find it hard to believe all of the pieces will fall into place for the Texas offense. A bunch of quick-hitting passes? Sure I can see that working out for a little bit. The tempo picking up a few big first downs here or there? Of course, that’s certainly possible. But, take away a big passing play to speedy John Burt (super hyped true sophomore, can the line protect long enough to get him the ball down field?), stifle the run game, and I’m not sure Texas’ duo 250-pound running backs have the speed and agility to overcome an offensive line with its hands full.

Should this game be close? Yes, closer than last year although a blowout Irish win is just as likely as Texas pulling off an upset. For me, this game comes down to two things: One, how the Irish offense deals with the quarterback rotation and how the team overall deals with a hyped, nationally broadcast, true road game in one of the toughest openers for the program this century.

You just know this will be an annoyingly difficult game. That seems to be in the DNA of college football, and for as well as the Irish program has raised itself under Kelly, they aren’t at a level where I’d predict a completely comfortable victory. That only happens if the Texas quarterbacks implode in this spotlight which is possible but I won’t predict they’ll be as awful as last year. It’s hard to be that bad.

I can’t shake the pessimism for Notre Dame’s quarterback situation. At the end of camp Kelly mentioned Kizer and Zaire only threw 3 interceptions during the practices and now I’m expecting 3 picks against Texas.

If Texas really wants to start and/or let Buechele play a majority of the snaps that’s great. He’s not as athletic as Swoopes so the run game would be less of a threat. He’s small and might not hold up physically. And while he’s excelled in absorbing Gilbert’s system and being accurate with the ball on short throws the odds are enormously stacked against him being able to effectively throw the ball down field against a complex defense waiting all off-season to gameplan for this moment.

Notre Dame has a HUGE advantage at quarterback and this (apparent) spin-of-the-wheel carousel is such a bad idea to possibly give that advantage away.

Still, I can see the Irish really leaning on the run big time in this game. Last year the 52 carries against Texas topped the entire season and I can see something similar again. If C.J. Sanders was taller I’d bet Notre Dame would be content relying heavily on “12” personnel and pushing the much lighter Texas edge (Horns starting DE’s weigh 497 pounds while ND TE’s Smythe and Weishar weigh 485 pounds and that’s before dealing with the likes of McGlinchey & Nelson) around all evening while freely allowing Kizer or Zaire the chance to run free.

Will we see a nice steady, run-heavy game to ease the Irish into the contest on the road without turnovers? Let’s see that happen. It’s important to take the crowd out of the game (first Texas sellout in a long time) because the home field advantage, revenge factor, and inner-feeling that the Horns think they’re so much better this year are potent potions that can waft around the Austin night to create an upset.

Notre Dame 27
Texas 18