Note: This recap was 95% finished prior to the news of Brian VanGorder’s firing. I’ve chosen to leave the writing as is although a few things could change in some parts as the Irish move on with an interim defensive coordinator. 

What a great time start a new website! The beginning of the 2016 football season was about as bad as anyone could have imagined and after Saturday things just got enormously worse. Though a loss to Duke as a 21-point favorite is bad it’s not just that fact. If we’re honest this Notre Dame team absolutely did not deserve to be that respected in the desert.

No, it’s not just the loss at this point. It was how the loss came about with inept defense, an under-performing offense that can’t be relied upon to score 6 or 7 touchdowns every game, special teams that are fine but can’t grow to be the difference in close games, and tackling so bad it honestly makes me wonder if it’s some sick joke among the Irish defenders.

About the Game

We don’t need to spend too much time on this individual game because the problems are so much larger. Duke went 4 possessions to start the second half without scoring which is about the best we can hope for with this Notre Dame defense–at least an opponent didn’t score 60 points. Blue Devil quarterback Daniel Jones threw for 290 yards with 3 touchdowns and looked as comfortable as could be out there. Jela Duncan? He put up a career-high 121 rushing yards.

24 first downs. 498 total yards. Worst of all, Duke put up 6.7 yards per play their highest average in their last 19 games against FBS schools. Things are so bad on defense for Notre Dame that they can get 7.2 YPP with over 500 yards from the offense and still lose to an ACC team that will probably struggle to have a winning record this year.

I’m done judging the defense, at least making sweeping judgments of players especially the younger ones. Things are so bizarrely rotten and amateurish on that side of the ball that it’s worth nothing. It’s 2007 John Sullivan-then-turns-in-a-long-NFL-career type of business that no one can sort through in the here and now.

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When the defense can’t tackle for the millionth time…

I mentioned this in the live chat and in all likelihood DeShone Kizer’s NFL stock will not be any higher than it has been over the last couple months. Yes, he’s been a good young quarterback so far in his career. Perhaps even very good. His size and moxie will make scouts drool today and tomorrow. However, he’s not great enough to carry this type of team on his back and that’s not a major fault. The consistency isn’t there yet. Too many sailed passes. A little too many poor decisions for a quarterback approaching 20 games played. Arm strength that isn’t mind-blowing for someone his size. The NFL machine will nitpick him to death eventually. He might still be a high draft pick yet that could be about the competition more than anything.

If it was possible to gain 534 yards and not feel like many people stood out on offense this was the game. There were some big receptions as Sanders and Stepherson caught 6 passes for 133 yards. St. Brown has legitimately staked a claim as the go-to receiver on the team if not the outright No. 1 receiver with 116 yards and another score.

Still, the run game is average at best, Torii Hunter is more role-player than playmaker, and the tight ends are mostly nonexistent. In the big picture there aren’t big problems on offense but when the program is in this shape every little issue is going to be exacerbated.

Who is this Brian Kelly?

Last week I mentioned that Brian Kelly isn’t in a comfortable situation like this at Notre Dame. Since 2001, his career has mostly been summed up as a steady rise through the ranks from the GLIAC, to the MAC, to the Big East, and to a national title game at Notre Dame.

He’s had some bad stretches before, any coach would over a large enough sample size. Not long ago Kelly lost 4 out of 5 in a horrendous ending to 2014. Before turning around Central Michigan the Chippewas lost 5 out of 7 from late 2004 into the beginning of 2005. It’s largely been lost to history now but Kelly was squarely on the hot seat after inheriting a very good Grand Valley State program, maintaining that level, but losing in the first round of the 1998 playoffs while dropping the first 3 games of the 1999 season. In fact, from late 1998 through 2000 Kelly was kind of a middling coach about to become unemployed.

Notre Dame has now lost 5 out of their last 6 games and what’s worse is that this stat looks like it’s about to become far uglier in the coming weeks. And what’s even worse than that? Brian Kelly looks like he’s more aware than anyone what is in store the rest of the season.

Normally it’s been Kelly’s MO to figure it out, rally the troops, and build something positive which can be carried over into the next campaign or at least salvage something from the current year. Right now, he looks lost. The emotion on the sideline is gone except to yell at players when they make a mistake. He’s saying the wrong things to the media and definitely things that don’t need to be said, either.

Kelly cited a lack of fire on Saturday and with the performance we’re seeing a young team that’s lacking leadership. It all flows down hill and the culture right now at Notre Dame looks, feels, and smells poisonous.

I know Brian Kelly isn’t handling the situation well at all. What I don’t know is if there are much larger issues at work, namely whether the players are checking out, or worse, Brian Kelly is checking out himself.

1-11?

I’m not prone to panic but things are so dark right now that I’m not sure this team will win again in 2016. I know that sounds ridiculous. What’s scary is that Notre Dame might have already played 3 out of the worst 4 offenses they’ll see all season and got just one win out of that group.

In comparison to 2007 this is a more talented football team. Aesthetically, this defense is at least sometimes competent whereas the 2007 offense virtually never was that way. Yet, 2007 played a really tough schedule (7 teams won at least 8 games) and this 2016 squad could lose more games against an easier slate just because the defense is so porous that they can’t keep up.

At any rate, this team isn’t making a bowl game. I typically hate the knee-jerk reaction to “no excuses” and all that business. I just have no idea how this program moves forward following a 4-8 season if it comes to pass.

I know one thing, the timing of this is absolutely terrible. In the Midwest, the Buckeyes are a Top 3-type of national power and now Michigan is climbing the ranks quickly. Michigan State may hold steady as a good team and we lost to them anyways. Stanford continues to embarrass Notre Dame in player development and wins with that game quickly upcoming. Other than USC, so many of the programs on Notre Dame’s radar are feeling good which is only going to increase the frustration and belief that a re-set button is needed in South Bend.

Is this a Helpless Situation?

In my Guide to Rebuilding Notre Dame Football Series from back in 2012 I said that the hire AFTER Brian Kelly was going to be more important than the hiring of Brian Kelly.

Look, Brian Kelly is a good football coach. Those of you who think otherwise are lying, have an ax to grind, or don’t have a center of gravity on the national coaching situation. He’s a good coach who has raised Notre Dame’s profile and just hasn’t been able to build off the 2012 season or sustain a very high level of success.

The easy way out is to proclaim that maybe Kelly simply isn’t that good but that’s dangerous thinking. Kelly is very well respected from a national perspective so much so that it’s been a complete 180 from the pre-Kelly era where the national media was seemingly harsher on the Irish than our own fan base.

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Maybe we know more and we know better. Maybe this season is going to take a sizable hit to Kelly’s reputation outside this sphere of influence. But I promise you this, other potential coaches aren’t saying, “Ha, I knew Kelly was a fake” it’s much more “Damn, that Notre Dame job is still such a big challenge.”

I think that’s the reality of the situation and firing Brian Kelly isn’t going to help reel in a new coach. The only exception is someone with a massive amount of confidence and an affinity, if not outright love, for Notre Dame. Can you name that coach right now?

That’s not to say that Kelly might deserve to stay but we’ve got to balance our hand against our wrist here knowing that the next coach absolutely has to be winning 70% of his games very quickly into his tenure. The only thing worse than enduring a terrible season is lining up 4 or 5 more mediocre ones.

If this isn’t a helpless situation it’s a crappy one right now. In all likelihood Kelly won’t be fired after this season and that won’t be popular. I’m certainly not at that point myself right this very second. At the same time, I’ve always thought Kelly’s tenure wasn’t going to last much longer than 8 years or so–and certainly not if he can’t at least win one major bowl game. The more I look at things the more I see a coach getting completely burned out by the job (again, not a great look to the outside world) and that doesn’t bode well for the rest of the season and very likely not a great sign for 2017, either.

All of a sudden we’re seeing a coach who might not just be losing this locker room of players and whose management style might be quickly wearing off–we may also be witnessing a coach who is feeling cornered and disillusioned with the culture at Notre Dame. Doesn’t he own that culture, though? Absolutely, at least 75% of the whole enterprise. However, let’s not pretend that the other 25% of that culture out of Kelly’s hands isn’t a factor.

We’re 7 years into this era and the institutional support is incredibly strong. Millions of dollars have been spent on the program and coaches, another makeover to the indoor practice facility is rumored to be in the works, and a lavish $400 million stadium project opens up next fall. Thanks goodness this program is in such better shape to attract new talent to South Bend. There is still hope.

Nonetheless, this is still an incredibly difficult job where having your cake (academics/tradition/waking up the echoes sappy nonsense) and eating it too (excelling at football) continues to present significant obstacles. Not all aspects of the football culture at Notre Dame can run through the head coach and it still persists that Irish players aren’t always 100% committed to the sport, not because of the staff, but rather the culture present at the school.

“Hey, don’t blame the players this is about coaching!” Yeah, well I choose to live in reality. This job demands a level of passion, intensity, and mental toughness from coach AND player that is unrivaled in the sport. We’ve seen greater coaches in a less strict academic atmosphere buckle under the pressure. Right now, it feels like Brian Kelly is being chewed up and spit out by that same pressure only it’s in the more high-profile social media age.

Kelly has 5 years remaining on his contract after this season, but you know what, I think it’s more likely he leaves for LSU, or Oregon, or UCLA than he gets outright fired. That’s the vibe I’m starting to get, one where Kelly knows the situation on defense is a massive rebuild, Kizer could bolt for the draft, and next year could be really rough and not good enough after this 2016 offering. I think Kelly has learned to love Notre Dame but deep down that football coach inside of him has to be panicking that he’s hit a wall.

That would seem to go against Kelly’s fiery spirit, right? However, you have to admit things are really strange right now and that the head coach at Notre Dame is acting and talking a lot like his future is uncertain.

Maybe I was wrong, perhaps this was a great time to start a new website.