Note: This recap was 95% finished prior to the news of Brian VanGorder’s firing. I’ve chosen to leave the writing as is although a few things could change in some parts as the Irish move on with an interim defensive coordinator.
What a great time start a new website! The beginning of the 2016 football season was about as bad as anyone could have imagined and after Saturday things just got enormously worse. Though a loss to Duke as a 21-point favorite is bad it’s not just that fact. If we’re honest this Notre Dame team absolutely did not deserve to be that respected in the desert.
No, it’s not just the loss at this point. It was how the loss came about with inept defense, an under-performing offense that can’t be relied upon to score 6 or 7 touchdowns every game, special teams that are fine but can’t grow to be the difference in close games, and tackling so bad it honestly makes me wonder if it’s some sick joke among the Irish defenders.
About the Game
We don’t need to spend too much time on this individual game because the problems are so much larger. Duke went 4 possessions to start the second half without scoring which is about the best we can hope for with this Notre Dame defense–at least an opponent didn’t score 60 points. Blue Devil quarterback Daniel Jones threw for 290 yards with 3 touchdowns and looked as comfortable as could be out there. Jela Duncan? He put up a career-high 121 rushing yards.
24 first downs. 498 total yards. Worst of all, Duke put up 6.7 yards per play their highest average in their last 19 games against FBS schools. Things are so bad on defense for Notre Dame that they can get 7.2 YPP with over 500 yards from the offense and still lose to an ACC team that will probably struggle to have a winning record this year.
I’m done judging the defense, at least making sweeping judgments of players especially the younger ones. Things are so bizarrely rotten and amateurish on that side of the ball that it’s worth nothing. It’s 2007 John Sullivan-then-turns-in-a-long-NFL-career type of business that no one can sort through in the here and now.
When the defense can’t tackle for the millionth time…
I mentioned this in the live chat and in all likelihood DeShone Kizer’s NFL stock will not be any higher than it has been over the last couple months. Yes, he’s been a good young quarterback so far in his career. Perhaps even very good. His size and moxie will make scouts drool today and tomorrow. However, he’s not great enough to carry this type of team on his back and that’s not a major fault. The consistency isn’t there yet. Too many sailed passes. A little too many poor decisions for a quarterback approaching 20 games played. Arm strength that isn’t mind-blowing for someone his size. The NFL machine will nitpick him to death eventually. He might still be a high draft pick yet that could be about the competition more than anything.
If it was possible to gain 534 yards and not feel like many people stood out on offense this was the game. There were some big receptions as Sanders and Stepherson caught 6 passes for 133 yards. St. Brown has legitimately staked a claim as the go-to receiver on the team if not the outright No. 1 receiver with 116 yards and another score.
Still, the run game is average at best, Torii Hunter is more role-player than playmaker, and the tight ends are mostly nonexistent. In the big picture there aren’t big problems on offense but when the program is in this shape every little issue is going to be exacerbated.
Who is this Brian Kelly?
Last week I mentioned that Brian Kelly isn’t in a comfortable situation like this at Notre Dame. Since 2001, his career has mostly been summed up as a steady rise through the ranks from the GLIAC, to the MAC, to the Big East, and to a national title game at Notre Dame.
He’s had some bad stretches before, any coach would over a large enough sample size. Not long ago Kelly lost 4 out of 5 in a horrendous ending to 2014. Before turning around Central Michigan the Chippewas lost 5 out of 7 from late 2004 into the beginning of 2005. It’s largely been lost to history now but Kelly was squarely on the hot seat after inheriting a very good Grand Valley State program, maintaining that level, but losing in the first round of the 1998 playoffs while dropping the first 3 games of the 1999 season. In fact, from late 1998 through 2000 Kelly was kind of a middling coach about to become unemployed.
Notre Dame has now lost 5 out of their last 6 games and what’s worse is that this stat looks like it’s about to become far uglier in the coming weeks. And what’s even worse than that? Brian Kelly looks like he’s more aware than anyone what is in store the rest of the season.
Normally it’s been Kelly’s MO to figure it out, rally the troops, and build something positive which can be carried over into the next campaign or at least salvage something from the current year. Right now, he looks lost. The emotion on the sideline is gone except to yell at players when they make a mistake. He’s saying the wrong things to the media and definitely things that don’t need to be said, either.
Kelly cited a lack of fire on Saturday and with the performance we’re seeing a young team that’s lacking leadership. It all flows down hill and the culture right now at Notre Dame looks, feels, and smells poisonous.
And the game ball goes to… Dr. Kevin White.
Called it the proudest moment of his career. pic.twitter.com/dMEUSgGlSk
— Duke Football (@Duke_FB) September 24, 2016
I know Brian Kelly isn’t handling the situation well at all. What I don’t know is if there are much larger issues at work, namely whether the players are checking out, or worse, Brian Kelly is checking out himself.
1-11?
I’m not prone to panic but things are so dark right now that I’m not sure this team will win again in 2016. I know that sounds ridiculous. What’s scary is that Notre Dame might have already played 3 out of the worst 4 offenses they’ll see all season and got just one win out of that group.
In comparison to 2007 this is a more talented football team. Aesthetically, this defense is at least sometimes competent whereas the 2007 offense virtually never was that way. Yet, 2007 played a really tough schedule (7 teams won at least 8 games) and this 2016 squad could lose more games against an easier slate just because the defense is so porous that they can’t keep up.
At any rate, this team isn’t making a bowl game. I typically hate the knee-jerk reaction to “no excuses” and all that business. I just have no idea how this program moves forward following a 4-8 season if it comes to pass.
I know one thing, the timing of this is absolutely terrible. In the Midwest, the Buckeyes are a Top 3-type of national power and now Michigan is climbing the ranks quickly. Michigan State may hold steady as a good team and we lost to them anyways. Stanford continues to embarrass Notre Dame in player development and wins with that game quickly upcoming. Other than USC, so many of the programs on Notre Dame’s radar are feeling good which is only going to increase the frustration and belief that a re-set button is needed in South Bend.
Is this a Helpless Situation?
In my Guide to Rebuilding Notre Dame Football Series from back in 2012 I said that the hire AFTER Brian Kelly was going to be more important than the hiring of Brian Kelly.
Look, Brian Kelly is a good football coach. Those of you who think otherwise are lying, have an ax to grind, or don’t have a center of gravity on the national coaching situation. He’s a good coach who has raised Notre Dame’s profile and just hasn’t been able to build off the 2012 season or sustain a very high level of success.
The easy way out is to proclaim that maybe Kelly simply isn’t that good but that’s dangerous thinking. Kelly is very well respected from a national perspective so much so that it’s been a complete 180 from the pre-Kelly era where the national media was seemingly harsher on the Irish than our own fan base.
Maybe we know more and we know better. Maybe this season is going to take a sizable hit to Kelly’s reputation outside this sphere of influence. But I promise you this, other potential coaches aren’t saying, “Ha, I knew Kelly was a fake” it’s much more “Damn, that Notre Dame job is still such a big challenge.”
I think that’s the reality of the situation and firing Brian Kelly isn’t going to help reel in a new coach. The only exception is someone with a massive amount of confidence and an affinity, if not outright love, for Notre Dame. Can you name that coach right now?
That’s not to say that Kelly might deserve to stay but we’ve got to balance our hand against our wrist here knowing that the next coach absolutely has to be winning 70% of his games very quickly into his tenure. The only thing worse than enduring a terrible season is lining up 4 or 5 more mediocre ones.
If this isn’t a helpless situation it’s a crappy one right now. In all likelihood Kelly won’t be fired after this season and that won’t be popular. I’m certainly not at that point myself right this very second. At the same time, I’ve always thought Kelly’s tenure wasn’t going to last much longer than 8 years or so–and certainly not if he can’t at least win one major bowl game. The more I look at things the more I see a coach getting completely burned out by the job (again, not a great look to the outside world) and that doesn’t bode well for the rest of the season and very likely not a great sign for 2017, either.
All of a sudden we’re seeing a coach who might not just be losing this locker room of players and whose management style might be quickly wearing off–we may also be witnessing a coach who is feeling cornered and disillusioned with the culture at Notre Dame. Doesn’t he own that culture, though? Absolutely, at least 75% of the whole enterprise. However, let’s not pretend that the other 25% of that culture out of Kelly’s hands isn’t a factor.
We’re 7 years into this era and the institutional support is incredibly strong. Millions of dollars have been spent on the program and coaches, another makeover to the indoor practice facility is rumored to be in the works, and a lavish $400 million stadium project opens up next fall. Thanks goodness this program is in such better shape to attract new talent to South Bend. There is still hope.
Nonetheless, this is still an incredibly difficult job where having your cake (academics/tradition/waking up the echoes sappy nonsense) and eating it too (excelling at football) continues to present significant obstacles. Not all aspects of the football culture at Notre Dame can run through the head coach and it still persists that Irish players aren’t always 100% committed to the sport, not because of the staff, but rather the culture present at the school.
“Hey, don’t blame the players this is about coaching!” Yeah, well I choose to live in reality. This job demands a level of passion, intensity, and mental toughness from coach AND player that is unrivaled in the sport. We’ve seen greater coaches in a less strict academic atmosphere buckle under the pressure. Right now, it feels like Brian Kelly is being chewed up and spit out by that same pressure only it’s in the more high-profile social media age.
Kelly has 5 years remaining on his contract after this season, but you know what, I think it’s more likely he leaves for LSU, or Oregon, or UCLA than he gets outright fired. That’s the vibe I’m starting to get, one where Kelly knows the situation on defense is a massive rebuild, Kizer could bolt for the draft, and next year could be really rough and not good enough after this 2016 offering. I think Kelly has learned to love Notre Dame but deep down that football coach inside of him has to be panicking that he’s hit a wall.
That would seem to go against Kelly’s fiery spirit, right? However, you have to admit things are really strange right now and that the head coach at Notre Dame is acting and talking a lot like his future is uncertain.
Maybe I was wrong, perhaps this was a great time to start a new website.
Good stuff as always, Eric!
You bring up some great points. I remember worrying Kelly was going to leave for USC the season those 5 players were suspended. It can’t be fun to coach college football somedays, especially at ND.
I relaxed when the contract extension occured. It makes me wonder now if a mutual parting comes next if this tailspin can’t be stopped.
It turns out that Jaylon Smith and Sheldon Day were both really good.
But in all seriousness, what caused the program to become so rotten after a season where they were 4 points away from being undefeated? It just doesn’t make sense unless Kelly has completely checked out. But even then they’re working on a top five recruiting class so is he not prioritizing on-field stuff as much?
I don’t understand. Someone please help.
Because three years ago he hired the worst defensive coordinator we’ve ever had, and it seems like he’s been running the program to not-lose, rather than to win, since the bowl game ended. It would have been a bold move to switch DCs in the offseason or to decisively manage the quarterback competition, but that’s what you have to do to win at a high level. It can’t all be safe, risk-free decisions, and it just seems like Kelly just doesn’t have it in him anymore.
Maybe it’s result the constant Charlie-Brown-kicking-the-football routine that has marked his tenure, with an absurdly unlucky string of injuries, transfers, and suspensions. Maybe it’s from how last season went, with a tremendous amount of injuries, a defense starting to crater, and the loss of a lot of talent to graduation or the NFL. I don’t know. But the Kelly who was going for it on fourth down at Florida State and Clemson doesn’t look anything like the one on the sidelines this season.
Kelly may be right that the players are part of the issue. The problem is that he shouldn’t say that: he is getting paid a ton of money to be responsible for those players, and those players aren’t seeing a dime of the millions of dollars generated mostly on their backs. It might be ok to call out a specific technique thing for a specific player, but you can’t say “this is a player problem” just to CYA, even if you’re not wrong. That’s borderline unforgivable.
What does money have to do with it? I don’t get that. These players knew what they signed up for and wanted to play at ND. Time for the players to actually play–missing simple tackles doesn’t have a lot to do with how much money Kelly makes or the program is generating.
That said, I think Kelly should have ripped them in the locker room, not in public.
I usually figure that when he rips them in public, he already tried ripping them in the locker room and it didn’t do any good.
Yeah, I guess that would make sense if he didn’t think he’d gotten through to them. Hadn’t thought of that.
Devil’s advocate: we lost to freaking Tulsa that one time. Then we won out. Based on the probability distribution floating around in my head at all times, I don’t think 1-11 is particularly more likely than, say, 7-5.
I have no idea who they’d hire to replace BK.
Counterpoint, Tulsa was pretty decent in 2010.
10-3 and No. 54 in S&P that season.
I just am pointing out that people thought the sky was falling after Tulsa when we were sitting at 4-5 (“get used to it”), again after starting 0-2 in 2011, after Northwestern and then USC in 2014, etc. In 2010, Tulsa lost 65-28 in their only other game against a Power 5 school. Besides ND, I am pretty sure, under Graham, they were winless against Power 5 schools and were outscored 202-72. Duke is 29-15 the past 3+ seasons with some decent wins, including beating an 11-3 Georgia Tech a couple of years back. As a fan, the Tulsa loss stings way worse for me. I didn’t even know they were in the FBS until they showed up on the ND schedule that year (maybe I should watch more MAC bowl games). Duke might be pretty bad this year, but it’s still early.
Basically, I don’t know if this low point seems especially worse than the times I mentioned above. This ND season is going terribly. I think things could be alright for 2017 and beyond, though.
Btw, thanks for these deep dives. I like how you take a longer view and establish context. So much of the content elsewhere is more geared toward which recruit is visiting when, game reviews and previews, and the day-to-day developments. It’s nice to step back after a crushing loss.
Thanks!
Eric, I am certain everyone on this board is ecstatic that you and the rest of the 18S team started this new site. It’s the best in the business, bar none. When you left OFD, that site became a shadow of what it was.
This column is one of your best ever IMO. I love rationality and dislike blind emotion. This is a very rational, unemotional, professional column.
Like you, I think Kelly has become open to leaving, he likely doesn’t need to stick around for a Charlie-like payout. The football world will see him as doing more than anyone since Lou to elevate ND football, and will likely give him a pass due to the peculiarities of coaching at ND in a much tougher era than Lou faced. We could end up in a nightmare scenario where he gets recruited away to a major program and we can’t attract any of our heart throbs. At this point I think that’s highly likely. I doubt that the list of heart throbs includes any inclined to bet his career on succeeding at ND.
One of the signs about BK for me is his open criticism of the players, so public and so biting. He’s smart enough to know better, and political enough to realize it won’t help him. I think his defense of his coaches goes hand in hand with that. I think he’s at the point, rightly or wrongly, where he thinks coaching cannot overcome the culture at ND. The frozen five debacle must have been excruciating for him. I’ve never seen a major program coach left so powerless, hanging in the wind for months.
His two best teams, 2012 and 2015, achieved greatly, but lost in humiliating fashion to Bama and tOSU on big stages. I think our fan aspirations exceed ND’s appetite for finding palatable alternatives to our current approach to the football program.
I suspect he’s ready to go somewhere where he feels has a better chance. Where that leaves us is anybody’s guess.
Thank you, Kiwi.
Oh criminy that Duke tweet hurts so badly.
Talk about twisting the knife…
That’s a complete Eff You to ND.
Screw Kevin White. As if one win vindicates him. Where were his tweets when Brey beat Duke so many times lately?
“What was the greatest moment of your career?”
“That time we beat a Notre Dame team that went 2-10!”
SIGNATURE. WIN.
It’s hard to top giving Charlie Weis a 10-year extension after 7 games…. Where’s the tweet for that brilliant decision?
LSU made the move so they can jump on Tom Herman. We’re not winning a bidding war, and Herman would reel in Louisiana and Texas talent hand over fist. So as nice as that dream is, we might as well forget it. I think Kelly + a great DC =close to the success we want…that is, if he hasn’t burned bridges this week. We’ll see, he recovered from saying bad things about Manti, so there’s that. But the offense is finally in a good place (for the most part…have to think everything else is distracting them). Get a good DC who can clean up the defense and we could be humming in a year or two.
Or I’m dreaming and we’ll go through all of this again the next year or three.
Yeah, there’s no way Tom Herman comes here. He’s spent a lot of time in the state of Texas during his coaching career (maybe all of it besides the Ohio State job), and while at Houston has recruited kids pretty close to the university. I don’t know if he’d want to ditch those connections to head back to the midwest, especially when he can head to Baton Rouge and maintain those east Texas ties.
I’ve seen a lot of talking heads suggest LSU is looking to get Jimbo Fisher. As hilarious as “Jimbeaux” t-shirts would be, why would Fisher leave FSU? It’s at best a lateral move, and he doesn’t have Alabama in his division (just Clemson and Louisville)
Maybe Lamar Jackson nightmares would drive him away? 7 TD’s vs Jimbo 😀
Well I hope you’re right KG. I felt like bagging on his players was both frustration of his situation (Who wants to get in front of the firing squad and explain yet another loss?) and an attempt to deflect the pressure from his coaches. I’m not saying it’s right, and I don’t agree with it at all, but that is where I thought he was coming from.
I don’t see any great coach gambling his career on the job at ND. Why would you accept that risk? Take the more certain jobs and just be patient right? So we are kind of stuck here right now. I remember the story line when Caughlin took the Giants to the Super Bowl. He was burnt out, overly critical, and miserable to be around. He knew it was his last year, and his wife convinced him to just go out and have fun again. I hope Kelly does the same thing.
I loved the article Eric, I think you do those types of articles better than anyone else. I’m loving the site, I see the improvements and appreciate them. You guys are doing a great job.
Appreciate it, hope everyone can come here and vent 🙂
I don’t think he was deflecting anything from his coaches. I think there were some guys that needed to hear it. The display from some guys on Saturday in both effort and leadership was pathetic. I don’t want to get into calling out individuals, but it would take about five minutes of film study to pick at least half a dozen guys who aren’t putting the effort in on every play. I think Kelly is telling his team, especially the defense, that they can’t lean on the crutch of poor coaching as an excuse to just go through the motions. They need to wake the bleep up.
This doesn’t excuse the coaching, of course. The coaches have plenty to fix, which Kelly has said over and over, including after the Texas and Michigan State games. Here’s what he said about recovering the season in yesterday’s conference call:
That’s (a) taking responsibility as coaches for getting it done and (b) sounds an awful lot like Lou’s “motivating players is easy – you get rid of the ones who aren’t motivated.”
I’ll be very interested to see who starts where against Syracuse, and who plays more than who.
And I’m sure he would just LOVE if some of his players told him “what he needed to hear” in the most public venue possible rather than behind closed doors. Such a great motivator. Not at all just a multi-millionaire throwing a hissy fit at a bunch of kids who he, for some reason, can’t figure out why they won’t listen to him.
I don’t disagree, but what does his money have to do with it?
alstein’s point is that BK is the one making a bunch of money off the work of these uncompensated kids, and he should be above this kind of comment in a press conference.
I think there are times when any coach, pro or college, is right to publicly call out his team for lack of effort, and I think this is one of those times. I don’t think he was throwing a hissy fit at all, I think he was livid at a bunch of guys mailing it in and he said so.
alstein (I think) doesn’t believe it’s right for any college coach to every call out his players, barring something illegal or at least clearly beyond the pale. He and I are going to differ on this one, and that’s OK. I know where he’s coming from and I respect it, I just disagree with it.
I don’t know that I’d go that far, but probably pretty close to it. Kelly certainly wears his emotions on his sleeve, so I just think he comes off horribly when, rashly and visibly upset in a post-game press conference after a horrible loss, he spends most of his time ripping his players’ motivation and effort, as though he’s not in charge of motivating them. If there is anything Mr. Football CEO IS in charge of, it’s that.
He also made it pretty clear on Saturday that he didn’t think it wasn’t a coaching failure, then the very next day, fires his complete and utter failure of an assistant and talks about the need to return to more fun, aggressive football rather than thinking and analyzing too much out there. So maybe it wasn’t really about effort at all but rather total frustration and hesitation with a garbage scheme that set nearly all of them up for failure? You know, coaching?
I also just tend to think the well-compensated adult in the room should act like it. Honestly, what does getting that publicly upset at that point in time accomplish for anyone? Take the time to collect yourself first and figure out a coherent, purposeful message before spouting off.
I understand, Al, but these guys come right off the field, players and coaches, with the adrenaline still pumping, to face a group of folks that couldn’t begin to do their job asking them leading questions. So sometimes they snap–remember that Seattle dback, I forget his name, sounding like he was an incoherent maniac on drugs in his on-field interview a couple of years ago–then we all found out he graduated from Stanford and is a polished, articulate, smart guy.
I think Kelly was beyond frustrated, still had the adrenaline rush going, and said things I do think would have been better in private. And sure, some of our issues are scheme related, but effort, passion, doing simple things like tackling, kicking field goals, running routes etc are on the players.
Brendan, I don’t consider the players uncompensated at all. They are paid a quarter-million degree package (more, I think, if they go 5th year graduate degree), which we all say is a 40 year asset. That’s far from uncompensated, and if they perform well enough on the platform ND provides, will make a hell of a lot more than the coaches if they add a good NFL career to the degree.
Get yourself together!
I want to add that the tackling just baffles me. You start learning how to tackle in peewee football. The instruction just gets refined as you progress through the years. This is a basic skill that every kid comes to ND already having had developed. The inability to just break down, keep your eyes on the guys gut, make contact, wrap up, and drag him to the ground should not be lost just because you’re in college now. Tackling is a basic skill that every kid coming to school should have a fairly high level of proficiency in. Somehow, these kids are losing skills they should already be pretty good at. This should be a focus for the rest of the season. Hell, for the rest of their careers. If you can’t tackle or block with some level of proficiency, you shouldn’t be playing football.
I dont know know what or how they are teaching it, but if I never hear a whiz or thud technique again, it will be too soon.
BK suggested that guys are panicking, playing out of control, and losing their technique. As someone who has never played football at any level and likely would die if I did, I’m not sure if that makes sense. It is a concern. I feel like I remember a Jets season where they were bad at tackling, which was upsetting. All the hapless Jets seasons tend to get blurry in my mind, so I’m not sure if this is something that actually happened or a recurring nightmare that I’ve been managing/systematically attempting to repress.
I think he previously used the words “out of position.” I think that’s just more motivation we needed to blame the scheme. Either players were lined up in a bad spot pre-snap or they had so many reads they were trying to make that by the time they realized they had to react to the ball, it was too late to take the right angle.
My brother tells me that it’s a sign of athleticism. The better athletes tackle well. As these kids go up the competition level from grade school, high school, college, the people they are trying to tackle are better at each level, and the less athletic guys fall behind in their tackling. He would know, as a number of his guys play on Sunday’s.
There are also examples of teams that no one would call athletic tackling well. For example, Boston College and Temple last year didn’t have players that would wow anyone with their combine stats, but those defenses had such good technique that they were able to break down and wrap up on a consistent basis. Even looking at Notre Dame, Manti Teo wasn’t a freak athlete like Jaylon, but he knew exactly how to get into position to make the tackle.
That being said, athleticism could definitely be a crutch if a player is not fundamentally sound in switching from pursuit to wrapping up the ball carrier. I’m wondering if that could have a hand in Joe Schmidt’s regression, from being a pretty sure tackler in 2014 to having an arm tackling mess of a 2015 season.
Speaking of Manti – another bad injury for him on Sunday. Out for the season with an achilles. Feel bad for the guy – he was starting to flourish in the league and looking to have a good healthy season (which would have been his first)
He had been named captain, right?
Did Kelly not talk with the media today? Sometimes its hard to find, but it seems like he didn’t.
He did at 2 PM over the phone as usual.
He did, I’m pretty sure they do a teleconference Sundays instead of a live presser. If a transcript is out there I’d bet it’s at und.com, but the article about BVG’s firing at ESPN had a bunch of quotes from Kelly.
edit: sorry for the redundancy, just saw Eric’s reply.
Ok perhaps the transcript is not up yet. I usually find the transcript late afternoon at und.com but it is nowhere to be found as far as I can tell.
http://www.asapsports.com/show_conference.php?id=123582
I wish someone on the call had the cojones to follow-up and ask something like:
“It’s understandable that you wouldn’t want to throw your staff under the bus in a post-game press conference before viewing the film. What about your players?”
That bothered me almost as much as the game itself. It was extremely petulant and defensive. He’d probably argue now that he was trying to motivate guys, but that would be after-the-fact BS. Far better to handle that kind of “motivation” behind closed doors, IMO.
Why? So you can feel satisfied at putting that ***** Kelly in his place? What answer would he possibly give that would be interesting?
“I regret saying those things. I was really devastated by the loss and unfortunately I let my emotions take over. I will really strive not to let that happen again.”
That would be an interesting answer to that question, Wednesday. Doncha’ think?
Appreciate the transcript.
IMO, revealing and not all bad.
– Concerned by Stanford, tOSU, Texas – remember what he said after the Texas game (if this is still going on later, then [in effect] that will be on me”
– Spent lot of time w the D last week, to assess
– Clearly has a package he wants to install Strikes me that BK is going to do an Ara (“helping” John Ray after the Purdue/Mike Phipps fiasco) and a Lou (same re: Gary Darnell).
– Greg Hudson would thus be brought in to give BK some more leverage with the three D assistants, and especially the players, reading between the lines. I think BK knows as Eric put it that his style may be wearing thin, and that he has issues with the team. And that Hudson will serve as his loyal assistant and conduit.
– Remains to be seen:
1, if BK has any real defensive chops…
2, if he still has the fire in the belly to right the ship. I agree, his reaction lately has been very bad, but reading his comments, he is in shock – he did not expect to be here. For me, btw, the player leadership excuse is partly valid – coaches can try to nurture that, and BK clearly did, but sometimes it just does not jell.
3, If he can draw out the poison in the locker room. He is clearly ready to take severe measures. Will they work?
4, This is huge for him. As a prof of leadership, and a student of history, I see it as a seminal challenge for a leader who has already met many, and if he fails, he will go the way that Eric lays out. But I think he has enough vested and is a good enough coach that he will go all in on this challenge, which (partly on him) is probably the biggest he has ever had.
I wish him luck, honestly.
Great post.
For the sake of ND football, I wish him much luck.
Wow. I’m as confused as hell. How did we get this bad?!!
I know we’re depending WAY TOO MUCH on Kizer, but as good as he is, even he looks a bit listless out there at really key moments.
And Kelly. Man, I don’t know that we could really “upgrade,” i.e. I kind of agree with Eric; it’s hard to argue anything other than the fact that he’s a good coach. However, I think he does kind of have a record of destroying kids. His attitude seems kinda…toxic? I’m thinking right now about the difference between him and Brey. Brey’s energy is so…positive. Thus, kids love to play for him. With BK, the players “say the right things” to the media, but their faces on the sidelines look so damn defeated. Like they’re having no fun at all.
Has Bob Diaco gotten fired from UCONN yet?! 🙂 And is he ready to come back and be our DC again?
Well, it happened, and we’re (mostly) happy about it. The BVG era is over.
So…now what?
Seriously–firing BVG isn’t going to magically make the defense better, as has been pointed out. It was a necessary first step–one that I loudly called for, though I never imagined we’d actually get it this quickly. But while it was a move I applaud, I can’t realistically imagine all of a sudden we’ll stop Syracuse, a powerful, fast-paced offense even if they aren’t a good overall team, cold this week. In fact, this is probably one of the worst offenses for a new interim DC to have as his first test.
Bottom line, this was a “clear the decks, things are changing” move, but it’s a move to get a jump on next year, not a move that’s going to fix this year. It may stop the bleeding, but that’s about all we can expect.
So what can we, realistically, hope for the rest of the season? If, at bare minimum, we improve tackling fundamentals and keep things simple, that alone should help some. We’re not going to beat Stanford without a miracle performance. Miami looks genuinely good so far. VT is competent. USC is a tire fire like we are. Navy is Navy and Army isn’t the usual pillow-soft Army. NC State…I honestly have no idea.
I’m interested in what the rest of you have to say. It wouldn’t surprise me if we lose every game from here until the bye (Syracuse, NC State, Stanford), because Hudson just won’t have time to make any real changes. I think we lose Miami too. Then, if I’m being hopeful, we win out the rest of the season. 5-7. Of course Syracuse and NC State might not be good, and so we’ll hit 7-5. But I think we’re basically throwing this season away, getting young guys some playing time, and more important is who we find as permanent DC and what other staff changes we make.
What now? Hard to say, but I’ll run through a few scenarios.
1. Worst case. The problems have become endemic to the whole team. The squad limps to a losing record, with rumblings of discontent off the field and poor, listless play on it. Everyone who can bolts to the draft, the recruiting class crumbles, but Kelly just hangs on for another year, despite the writing being on the wall.
2. Middling. Firing BVG lets a lot of the poison out and the team rallies to salvage a winning season. The young guys get lots of development, Kelly seems to be righting the ship, and ND goes into next year with reasonable hope.
3. Best case. The problems were mostly psychological, and firing BVG provided a release that turns this around. The scheme is still flawed, but guys play with enthusiasm and talent enough that the D improves significantly. The offense starts clicking with the pressure off a bit, and the team only loses to Stanford. ND looks loaded for next year.
I think any of these are possible, but that the middle option is the most likely. If the worst parts of the defensive scheme are dumped, and the players are able to focus on making plays without overthinking it or having a toxic atmosphere on the sideline, things could get a fair bit better pretty quickly.
I’m really interested to see what Hudson does. If he truly simplifies things and goes “bend but don’t break” with his scheme, I think we beat Syracuse and NC State. Neither has many talented players on offense. If you force them to consistently make plays on sustained drives, I think they will fail. Stanford and Miami should be able to put up a ton of points on us; we only beat them if Kizer is historic those games, and even then, we could still be outscored.
That being said, I think we could win out those last 4 games. We might not punt once between the Navy and Army games. VT isn’t impressive to me, and USC might have 0 players left on the roster by that game (of course, they might fire their coach, come together as a team, and make the ND game their “Super Bowl”).
I’m going to say we win our next 2 to get to 3-3; then we lose the next 2 and sit at 3-5. Then, another 2 game winning streak to get to 5-5. Maybe a split in the last 2? 6-6 definitely wouldn’t surprise me, but neither would 5-7 or 7-5.
God, what if this year ends up 7-6 with a bowl win over some mediocre team? (Eww or even 6-7 with a bowl loss).
Would be better than whatever happened in that year between 2006 and 2008.
My mind is drawing a blank. Can’t remember. That sinking feeling in my soul tells me it was probably pretty bad, though.
Tech’s looked good the last 2 weeks (but did get punked by a Tennessee team that looks pretty powerful). Their offense is going to give ND fits, tempo, spread and scores a lot. I thought coming into the season that would be most likely a win, now I’m not so sure. Barring some major changes defensively I see it as a loss right now.
ND really needs 2 wins before Stanford and to go into the bye at 3-4, I agree that it’s probably 3-5 right now, most commonly, after Miami, then Navy+Army in hopefully 2 wins to get back to .500 at 5-5. Not inconceivable to me to be 5-7 after VT and USC.
Ideally, things gel together and this team shakes free to 7-5, but I’d say at this point it looks more likely the wheels fall off and there’s not even bowl eligibility. Which sucks, but it’s already clear this year is going to be pretty painful.
So what makes everyone so sure that BVG was “toxic”? Did I miss something? I don’t remember any players showing anything but absolute confidence in BVG and his system. Is there some kind of inside/anonymous source confiding in BVG wearing kids down? I’m confused.
Honestly I think that’s a straw people are grasping at, hoping that by removing him things will magically get better.
I don’t think he was “toxic” in the sense of people didn’t play hard for him or hated him personally. At least, I’ve never heard/seen anything to that effect. Hence I don’t think we’ll see any sort of magical turnaround in the D just because he’s gone and everyone is hugs and unicorns or something.
BVG was toxic because he was a dead man walking, and everyone knew it. I mercifully missed the second half on Saturday, but apparently the students were chanting for him to be fired. Hard to keep the faith of your players when they know you’re gonna be fired.
My guess is that people are using it more in the general sense – not that BVG himself created a toxic atmosphere, but that the poop show that was our defensive performance created a toxic atmosphere. The players do like him for the most part; you hear something every once in a while about someone thinking he’s too harsh, but generally they stood up for him and they respected him.
I don’t expect the defense to suddenly morph into the 2012 D, for sure. But if we cut out some of the stuff that VanGorder stubbornly held onto, like dropping Jay Hayes and Jarron Jones into coverage, and if we remove the read and react component and tell guys to just go, we might see enough improvement to let the offense win games. Really, if the defense was a notch or two above non-existent we would definitely be 3-1 and possibly 4-0 right now. We don’t need a ton of improvement to have a much better chance of winning games.
This is the only real evidence to support the idea that BVG was toxic.
“With Coach Johnson, you don’t have somebody on your back waiting for you to do wrong. He expects you to do right. He actually coaches you and stuff, [instead of] like yelling at you.”
who is coach Johnson?
I’m presuming the coach who came in and replaced BVG at Auburn, since it’s a quote from a player from when he was at Auburn.
ah, thanks KG
Just be alert to the fact that you ALWAYS hear a lot of great things about the new regime. “Wow, this new S&C coach is the best thing ever. He has us lifting weights and stuff! I feel stronger and faster already!” It’s the nature of the situation.
So, I’m sure we’ll hear glowing praise for Hudson and how things are now so simple and crystal clear and he’s nice and he really teaches and yada yada yada. Some of it will hopefully be true.
That’s all too true. Ellis Johnson ended up getting fired from Auburn after only 2 seasons, even if the Kick Six return was his idea.
I’d say the atmosphere is already quite toxic with player quotes like this from a senior leader. It’s hard to believe a head coach from a major program with ND’s type of history would be fine with these comments, but they fall right in line with the arrogance of Brian Kelly. Who needs x-box or partying, Cole and the boys get plenty of entertainment from fans criticizing the defense. Hard to root for someone like this.
How hard is it to say: there’s a lot of pressure on us, but when you go to ND that’s part of the deal. We are improving and will improve- I am confident it will show soon with on the field results. We really needs the fans support more than ever.
Cole Luke hears you.
You: the frustrated football fan. You: the anonymous Twitter troll.
You, who watched in abject horror as the Notre Dame defense all but disintegrated in the third quarter of last weekend’s loss to Michigan State. You, whose bubbling grievances spilled like lava onto social media, incinerating everything in its path.
You, who takes solace in publicly assigning blame to maligned defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder.
You, with the torches and pitchforks.
To you — all of you — Luke has something to say.
“We think it’s funny, because the people that are talking want to be in our shoes, but they couldn’t handle the pressure that we have,” Notre Dame’s senior cornerback said on Wednesday night. “They think our job is easy, which it’s not. We’d pay money to see them do what we do, which we know they can’t. They can talk all they want. We don’t mind it. We actually think it’s entertaining.
“If that’s what they want to do, go ahead.”
When Kelly leaves to go to LSU, we’re going to hire PJ Fleck, aren’t we?
Welcome to new head coach, Bob Diaco.
Then yet another sheit storm will commence 🙂
Sadly, i don’t think he’s ready yet. But another 2-3 years? That might be enough. The jump from UConn to ND is much bigger than Cincy to ND though. i’d actually be happier if Kelly turned it around and stuck around long enough for Diaco to have one great season at UConn (9 or 10 wins, i’m not expecting a playoff team) and get hired by a bigger name program for 2-3 years before coming back to ND.
I…wasn’t serious.
But he is a serious choice…i’m just hoping he has time to accomplish enough to be the right choice.
I’m not going to lie.
There are much worse options than bringing PJ Fleck in as head coach.
But I really think just salvaging the season to 7-6 territory, albeit a long shot, and making a rock solid hire at DC (Aranda, Mason, Mark Stoops) and shaking up the S&C staff would work tremendously.
If there really is a culture problem on this team, PJ Fleck would actually probably be a pretty good candidate to fix it
I think most people will agree that Kelly is a great program builder. He raised the program up from the dumpster fire caused by the Davie, Willingham, and Weis years and made us competitive again in a similar fashion to what he did at Central Michigan and Cincinnati. However I think he reached his ceiling in 2012 (having Manti Te’o and a terrible Pitt kicker helped..), and honestly do not believe his coaching style or ability will ever get ND over the next hump to consistently compete at an “elite” level (insert Joe Flacco joke) against teams like OSU and Alabama.
The problem is finding an “elite” coach that can get us over that 9-10 win hurdle. That’s obviously above my pay grade, but there are certain qualities in a great coach (leadership, accountability, creativity) that I think Kelly lacks and the next coach will hopefully bring. I also hope the next coach brings a style of play like Wisconsin, MSU, and Stanford but that’s a whole separate issue…
I agree with the sentiment that Kelly has been good for ND even though he doesn’t look like the guy who can match Meyer and Saban and Harbaugh at the top of the coaching tree. Too many critics want it to be a black or white issue, but most coaches live somewhere along the spectrum of gray in between. Indeed, even coaches like Miles have been, at various times, on both ends of that spectrum. Same can be said of so many other coaches. Stoops. Spurrier. Chizik (dubious achievement of being at the top one year and flat out the pits the following year). Saban’s stint at MSU.
Kelly is comfortably in the top half of the chart and sometimes has approached the very good end of the scale. No need to demonize him or make him out to be a failure.
I know the fanbase wants a home run hire, but I don’t think anyone, including Swarbrick, has any confidence they absolutely know who that would be. ND could easily jump from the frying pan into the bowels of hell because, well, Willinghams happen. Weises happen. Davies happen.
It occurs to me that a set of incredible assistants is the key even if you are Saban or Meyer or Harbaugh. The HC can’t do it all. So, I can’t help but wonder if a great stable of assistant coaches wouldn’t also elevate a very good but not great HC to look like a national championship coach. Again, the Chizik example beckons, because he was a lousy HC and yet with great assistants (and a few truly transcendent players) he made it to the top.
If you’re going to need great assistants no matter how good a HC you are, then the logical conclusion is “ND needs to upgrade every weak assistant coach position right fricking now if it wants to see the playoffs.” To me, that should be Swarbrick’s immediate goal. Good start getting rid of VanGorder.
Great points about the risks of striking out on the next coach and the need for good assistants. I really wish we replaced BVG last off season and brought in Don Brown, BC’s defensive coordinator last year, who is now the defensive coordinator at Michigan. His defense looked really solid against us and they were one of the best units in the nation despite having less talent to work with. I guess Harbaugh knows what he’s doing….
Time will tell how Greg Hudson does but it can’t be any worse than what Van Gorder was doing the past few weeks.
Good point! We seem to have a penchant for hiring former ND players who, while great guys, aren’t proven coaches.
This all day right here. For a couple of years I’ve wondered if having good assistants is essentially CFB’s “moneyball” stat. I always feel like great programs take a quick dive after a few successful seasons even though the recruiting stays great, the head coach is the same, and all the money is flowing into the program. I think that Saban’s success at Alabama is longer than most, not because he personally is a great coach or a great recruiter, which is he is, but because he’s able to find good people to backfill his assistants who go off to do bigger and better things. Look at Les Miles. He basically got the can because he made a bad hire for OC and wouldn’t dump him.
https://twitter.com/JJStankevitz/status/780798661655658497
So we have a 1/3 chance of bowl eligibility. Pre-Duke my view was that the standard was 6-6 AND 11 wins next year, and I stick by that. I think if we go 4-8 or 5-7, Swarbrick needs to, at the very least, figure out who the best this-year replacement for Kelly is and give significant consideration to that person. If it’s, e.g., PJ Fleck or Bob Diaco, obviously not. If, however, they can reel in a big fish, replacing Kelly after 5/7 bad or at least not-good years would, I think, be fully justified.
Did you just say . . . “one chansh in three”?
I’m even more confused by Kelly after his presser today. It seems he’s had an epiphany about the defense, suddenly discovering that the scheme is too complicated. Says he’s going from 15 packages to 2.
Also that players are taking too many snaps, going so far as to say Tranquil, Studstill, Coney were to tired to make the tackles they missed.
I’m scratching my head, wondering how it is he just discovered all this. Im 100% certain he sees snap counts after every game, and could have put his foot down at any time to get more substitutions, unless he agreed that the backups are too weak. Mentioned that Jay Hayes got zero snaps vs Duke. I thought he played, but if not, I think that’s on BK as much as BVG.
As for the scheme, he’s defended it until today. I don’t understand the sudden awakening.
There’s no excuse for a Notre Dame defense to be this bad. Therefore his excuses are not going to hold water. As the head coach this absolutely falls on him. It’s inexcusable if, after 14 & 15, Kelly wasn’t looking over Van Gorder’s shoulder checking all the details. Kelly owns all of this.
That’s because you’re expecting his comments to be reflective of reality. Kelly is a politician. I don’t say that critically, I’m fine with him not giving us “the truth.” But up to this week he’s defended BVG and the scheme because he felt it was the right thing to do in public, not (hopefully) because he didn’t think it was a problem. Now that the camel’s back broke under that last straw, he doesn’t have to defend it anymore. I’m not a psychologist, but my read is that Kelly felt he was givng BVG every chance to fix things, and getting more and more frustrated each week when nothing got fixed. He KNOWS that he (Kelly) effed up by giving BVG too long and not acting sooner. I think his lashing out in the press conference was that frustration boiling over, and for once he wasn’t as political. He got frustrated, threw players under the bus, but didn’t blame BVG directly because it was a knee-jerk reaction after covering it up so long. It’s not a good look, and I think his comments were way off the mark. But he did it, so now he has to figure out how to fix it.
I’m probably going to voice this opinion again before the season is over, but I might as well get started.
Broken clocks are right twice a day, and it’s time to admit that NDNation was right was about Kelly. Sure, they were wrong for the first five years. But at this point, we have a body of work on Kelly. Even in his good years, there’s always been one game like Duke. He’s averaged 9 wins a season to this point, which is far better than the jokers between him and Lou, but we’ve seen his body of work and I don’t think we can expect back to back 10 win seasons in his tenure.
A lot of very smart people here are saying, “Well, we shouldn’t fire him because we can’t do better.” I completely disagree. We can do better. Kelly’s success has actually put us in a position to do better. No one expects us to get Tom Herman, but you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. I would be okay giving PJ Fleck a try. And am I the only one who thinks we have a shot at Mark Dantonio? The argument everyone makes about Herman is, “Why would he come here with the academic restrictions?” But in Dantonio’s case, we’ve outrecruited him soundly even with the restrictions. If Dantonio came here, he’d have more talent than he would have at MSU. I think that’s quite a pitch.
I’m sure there are other coaches out there. I think Chip Kelly could be available by the end of the season (or next season – I’m not saying we should fire Kelly right now). But I think, quite categorically, that Kelly is what he is AND we can do better. No one thought David Shaw was an amazing hire, but he’s proved himself. We’re not guaranteed of hiring David Shaw, but we’re sure as heck not going to hire him if we retain Kelly.
I only casually follow NDNation and am impartial observer to their site, so I’m curious why NDNation was wrong for the past 5 years but suddenly right about Kelly now? Was the Duke loss the final nail in the coffin? I think NDNation can be extremely pessimistic and toxic at times, especially after losses. However I think a lot of their posters legitimately care about the football program and want it to do well. And at a macro level, can see the program for what it currently is. Instead of worshiping every decision Kelly makes and having an ND bias towards every issue like some ND fans do.
For instance, NDNation is incredibly supportive of the basketball team and Brey because they realize he is a great coach (despite his lack of emphasis on defense). He led them to back to back Elite 8’s despite having very little support and resources from the Admin. I think the hostility towards Kelly partially stems from having every resource available, yet his poor decision making squanders those opportunities to have a great football team.
I agree to some not insignificant degree. Notre Dame football can and should do better than 8 wins a season (not inclusive of bowl games), and Brian Kelly is basically an 8-4 type of coach (or, as NDNation calls him, Coachocinco for the 5 Ls). He’ll get to double digit wins in the “good” seasons, and get 5 (or more, apparently) Ls in the mediocre seasons. He is who he is at this point.
He is demonstrably not one of the ten best coaches in the country, and Notre Dame football should have one of the ten best coaches in the country. Full stop. For that reason alone, firing him is justifiable under the right circumstances. And, to that degree, NDNation is right.
With that said, I do think there has to be some standard to replacing him this year after just coming off one of his “good” seasons. I don’t think a flier on PJ Fleck is worthwhile at this point (maybe next year if we’re desperate!), but, yes, if for some reason Mark Dantonio (who demonstrably *is* one of the ten best coaches in the country) were willing to come, Brian Kelly should be so fired.
The word “should” is crazy making, according to the shrinks. It implies not accepting the real world as it is, but preferring to believe in a make believe world, which most often leads to disappointment and depression.
There is no “should” about ND coaching hires. They are what they are. I will wager a significant amount of your favorite beverage that Dantonio would not accept if offered. I doubt other true top 10 coaches would either, after watching the last 7 years.
As for NDN, sorry, they are a churlish bunch of rabid know it all’s, most particularly the odious Across, who apparently is an owner. I only go there to see what the lunatic asylum is saying. They are the types who would have killed Devine’s dog, IMO.
I don’t disagree one bit – but, assuming miracles aren’t worked and we don’t finish 8-4 or 9-3, it’s on Jack Swarbrick to figure out what the options are this year. Odds are exceedingly likely the right course of action will be to keep Kelly and see how next year plays out because, as you say, seems pretty unlikely any already established top coach would take the job right now. I think the team next year could be super talented and even a playoff contender (so long as Kizer stays, injuries allowing, etc.), so keeping Kelly isn’t totally crazy. Comparing to recent history, this is akin to Weis in 2008, not in 2009. But, obviously, that didn’t end well.
Yeah, it’s always such a coin toss when someone new is hired, in business or sports, into a leadership position. It will be interesting to see how this year and next play out.