For the 5th time in 14 years Notre Dame will face Syracuse on the football field–for the second time in 3 years it’ll be MetLife Stadium hosting the two programs as the Orange finish their 4-game series in New Jersey (after initialing signing a 10-game deal). During the last meeting Everett Golson fell one pass short of the NCAA record for most consecutive completions (thanks to a fumbled spike!) as the Irish cruised to a somewhat easy victory.
Notre Dame (-11.5) at Syracuse
MetLife Stadium
East Rutherford, New Jersey
Date: October 1, 2016
Kickoff: 12:00 PM ET
Television: ESPN
Series: 4-3-0 Notre Dame
Syracuse is now 4 games into the Dino Babers era and he brings with him a Baylor-style offensive attack adopted from his assistant days (2008-11) with the currently disgraced Art Briles. So far, the offense has been a little better and much more fun but not quite packing a big difference on the scoreboard.
3 Matchups to Watch
Greg Hudson vs. Syracuse’s Tempo
Last week Bob Diaco had a plan against Syracuse and that was to move as slowly as humanly possible on offense. The Huskies held the ball for 38:29, ground out 23 first downs on 425 total yards, and it nearly worked. Unfortunately, the Orange gained 7.1 yards per play (3rd worst average of the Diaco UConn era) on their 66 snaps and scored 31 points for the victory.
The bad news for Notre Dame is that Syracuse moves really, really fast. In their first three games under Babers they averaged 93(!!!) plays per game before Diaco put a stop to that nonsense. The Orange might be the quickest offense Notre Dame has faced in recent years.
It remains to be seen how well Greg Hudson can turn around in one week and create an effective counter to this type of speed. The good news is that the Syracuse offense is really one-dimensional (55% passing) and as we’ll see below they’re really struggling to run the ball.
Etta-Tawo & Philips vs. Notre Dame’s Secondary
We can probably safely assume that even if Syracuse isn’t good running the ball they’ll find some success against this Irish defense. That’s just how we’re rolling in 2016. The larger problem is Syracuse’s quick passing game led by the athletic Eric Dungey targeting primarily two wideouts in Amba Etta-Tawo and Ervin Philips.
Etta-Tawo is a graduate transfer from Maryland who was a backup with the Terps and has burst onto the scene in 2016 with an absurd 40 receptions, 706 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Syracuse mixes Etta-Tawo’s size (6’2″) with the slippery 5-11, 176-pound Philips who has flourished in Babers’ offense after an off-season move from running back. He’s already caught 36 passes for 289 yards–not very explosive for big plays but he’s combined with Etta-Tawo to form 67% of Syracuse’s receiving production.
Protecting the Irish Defense
Will Brian Kelly try to emulate the gameplan from Bob Diaco last week? Can the Irish keep the ball away from Syracuse’s offense with a slow methodical offense? Should they even try?
Of course, the Orange defense was ripped apart by Louisville but that’s no barometer for anything. They did give up 879 yards combined to USF and UConn which isn’t that great. Even with some injuries in the secondary their pass defense has looked serviceable. The running game (again, given Lamar Jackson & Co. averaged 10 yards per carry) currently are only better than Arkansas and California in terms of rushing defense average.
It’ll be interesting to see if Brian Kelly uses this week to get the running game back on track or whether it’ll be more reliance on Kizer’s arm and trying to race out to lead instead.
2 Sides of the Line
The Orange had to go through a rebuild on the offensive line when Dino Babers showed up. So far, through 4 games only two players have started every game up front: redshirt sophomore left guard Aaron Roberts (6-4, 280) and redshirt junior right tackle Jamar McGloster (6-7, 328) both who are brand new starters.
At left tackle true sophomore Cody Conway (6-6, 287) started the first 3 games this fall but was injured and replaced last weekend by 5th-year senior JUCO transfer Michael Lasker (6-5, 312). More injuries have piled up, too. Fifth-year senior center Jason Emerich (6-3, 293) and 5th-year senior right guard Omari Palmer (6-3, 315) are the only returning starters from 2015 and have missed recent games. At center, Syracuse has turned to redshirt freshman Colin Byrne (6-5, 312) and at right guard redshirt freshman Evan Adams (6-6, 333).
Overall, pretty good size for the Orange but there’s too much inexperience and not everyone is a great fit for Dino Babers’ offense. The offense had already tilted pass-heavy and that’s largely because the run game has been very weak in 2016. Through 4 games Syracuse’s 3.2 yards per carry mark ranks dead last in the ACC and 5th worst among Power 5 programs. They also only have 2 rushing plays of 20+ yards so their explosiveness has been really poor.
Defensive end was a major problem this off-season as the Orange replaced 4 players from the 2015 roster. So far, true freshman Kendall Coleman (6-3, 252) out of Cathedral in Indianapolis has made every start but is without a sack or tackle for loss. For the first 3 games, Syracuse tried redshirt sophomore Chris Slayton (6-4, 296) on the edge and he’s made 3 sacks so far. Last week, the Orange moved Slayton inside and started true freshman Josh Black (6-3, 257) who has 1 tackle for loss.
On the interior, true sophomore Steven Clark (6-2, 287) has been playing nose tackle and is limited to just 4 tackles. Next to him, redshirt sophomore Kayton Samuels (6-0, 314) has just 6 tackles as the lone returning starter from 2015 but was injured last week.
Obviously, this is a young and inexperienced line. They only have 4 team sacks against their 3 FBS opponents (we’d love that many, though!) and their 18 tackles for loss as a team is very poor–just one more than this dreadful Irish defensive output.
1 Prediction
Does anyone really know what’s going to happen with this Notre Dame on Saturday? Does anyone have a really good handle on the situation?
First things first, thank goodness the Irish are not playing at home. Yes, this is the exact type of situation where getting out of town is to Notre Dame’s benefit. The question then becomes how does a neutral site game play into the hands of the Irish? The last time around it was a favorable crowd for the good guys.
Due to the poor start will droves of Irish fans stay home? Will the crowd be largely apathetic in the cavernous NFL stadium. Will we approach something like home field advantage for Syracuse?
Then there’s the noon start, traditionally feared by many for its sleepy, passionless qualities as half the country is still waking up and hasn’t settled in to their viewing just yet. For a Notre Dame team needed to dig deep and find some passion is this a major hindrance?
On top of all the emotional issues swirling around the Irish we now have concerns coming out of central New York that starting quarterback Eric Dungey could miss this weekend’s game with a possible hand injury. Don’t bet on that as this sounds like Babers trying to play a little mind games as they prepare for a different Notre Dame defense.
Syracuse football coach Dino Babers mum on quarterback Eric Dungey’s injury https://t.co/Pp0dKrF4oT
— syracuse.com (@syracusedotcom) September 28, 2016
And how different will this defense be on Saturday? A couple tweaks here and there with a little more emotion perhaps–anything else?
As a team how different will Notre Dame be from last weekend? That’s the biggest question I’ve been asking myself. Since the early part of this season I was looking at this game as a likely loss–from the middle of the Duke game I was sure the Irish would lose at MetLife.
I’m curious to see how they respond because last week looked desperate and downright pathetic. The Duke game was a classic opportunity for a Kelly-led team to right the ship and march on towards at least respectability. Instead, it was one of the worst displays in recent Notre Dame history leading to THIS kind of writing from me in post-game.
Can I get a mulligan and say this will be a good performance from Notre Dame? That they’ll fight through the change at defensive coordinator, the noon start, and that pesky up-tempo Syracuse offense? This is all hope, baby. Part of me is ready to lose, heck even expecting to lose. The other half is screaming it can’t really be this bad, can it?
@Thanks for brightening up my morning.@
Aside from the obvious, this is a good game to not have BVG coaching; team with tempos always gave his exotic blitzes and complicated scheme trouble and factor in his reluctance to sub out players and Syracuse would have spread and worn out the defense easily.
Hopefully Kelly runs the damn ball (only slightly @) and doesn’t get away from it even if the game is 7-7 or 14-14. Worst case is a tie game and they shift all to the passing game, then keep panicking when that makes them have to punt too.
I love passing. Throw the dang ball! Run mesh plays all night! And then 4 verts!
Sexy Rexy is kind of the antithesis of old Tommy Rees. “I’m throwin’ 2 yards out of bounds” just doesn’t have the same ring to it.
I have no idea what to expect, and I embrace the chaos. Please ND, at least entertain me.
If nothing else, I would love to see the defensive line attack the line of scrimmage, instead of dropping into coverage! That, more than anything, will help to mitigate the weak coverage in the secondary.
Gonna be in the air during the game, landing in DC after. Maybe I can record it on USTV Now, a good site for deployed folks. So I will only be with you in spirit.
De Shone’s interview amazing. Like he is the only adult in the room. I do hope they do play loose, and have luck early, which will help out there.
Very interested to see BK’s role on the defensive side.He has pretty clearly said he will have a big role, and that he intends to simplify. And has a plan to rotate lots of players.
On verra!
Great preview, Eric – I agree with most of your points, including a close final score. My heart is really hoping that the firing of BVG will release a spell that had been cast on the ND defense (like Wormtongue in LOR). I am a realist and don’t expect this ND defense to be great, but I hope that it can at least approach average (which should be good enough as long as the offense continues to score).
Defense can’t get much worse.
I’m cautiously optimistic about this one.
Well, we should double our sack count against a pass-happy offense, right?
Per Lou S yesterday, quoting famous football coaches and history – losing three games in a row spells massive trouble for a head coach – BK already has done a couple of times, so no much patience left. Lots riding on Saturday, under that perspective.
I’m assuming our defense will be terrible and we will lose every remaining game on our schedule until it’s proven otherwise.
OMG 44-41? So, a basketball game on turf? I really hate it that you are probably right Eric. My how expectations have changed. Great job Eric, good write up.
@IllinIrish20: You’re describing my worst fear but not my expectation. This offense is good enough to win some games if the defense can improve to even 70th nationally (terrible, but better than they are now).
In the style of Lou Holtz, I think the right thing is to set intermediate goals. I’d like to see us not fumble more than once this game. That’s such a low bar, but if we do that, I think this offense carries us. Look at the last two games.
I know we’re all really frustrated with the defense, but what really pissed me off was Kelly throwing Deshone and the offense under the bus (by condemning the entire team). The offense has done well this year, especially for how young they are. If he can get them back in his camp, 5-7 should happen and we might even be lucky enough for 7-5 (though that’s the optimist in me).
According to S&P+ 4-8 is much more likely than 7-5.
I think with this defense we are a 6-6 football team. I just hope this BS doesn’t make any recruits jump ship. Especially the 2018 verbals.
So much depends on the play of Kizer.
The Kizer part is what scares me most.
I don’t actually believe we will lose out. Even a slight improvement on D and this team would be 3-1 or 4-0. But the last time we had so much offense running through one guy was 2014, and that didn’t turn out so hot.
This team is young and there will be growing pains, but I do still believe BK is a good football coach and will get the team in contention for 5-6 wins. I’m just saying that, week by week, I’m setting the bar as low as possible for my own sanity. If we were to somehow win 7 or 8 games, I think next year could be pretty special.
S&P+ thinks 4-8 is more likely than 6-6 as well. Out “expected wins” is 4.87 (i.e., likeliest record is 5-7, followed by 4-8.)
To be fair, ND did have a big “what tho’ the odds” game last Saturday. They just forgot the next line in the song.
The 5-7 record would presume no improvement on D after BVG gone. It doesn’t take that into account (for better or for worse since who knows how that will work out).
Regarding the “Kelly throwing players under the bus” thing, at least one recruit had something to say about that:
“I’m tired of saying ppl saying coach Kelly threw the team under bus. From what I saw he’s challenging them to be tougher and more passionate”
https://twitter.com/JeteNificent34/status/780813069786066944
I’m sure the players will LOVE that coming from a recruit. All-around great for team morale.
Recruit: “Ya’ll soft right now.”
Team: “No we’re not, coach is being mean to us.”
Recruit: “Like I said.”
I like that kid already.
I am looking forward in seeing how this team plays for its head coach. BK
threatenedchallenged his players this week. If the team doesn’t respond my fear is Kelly has lost this locker room. Pete Sampson already said this could be the begining of the end of the Kelly era. I think Kelly finds a way and fixes this mess. This is a huge weekend for BK.I couldn’t agree more. We’re going to know this week which way this season, and perhaps BK’s tenure, is going.
We *clap* are *clap* so *clap* screwed *clap*