Notre Dame entered the offseason with yet another quarterback quandary, filled with a metric tonne (hey Larz!) of questions. Will Brandon Wimbush get over his yips in 2018? How long will his leash be? What would the offense look like with Ian Book as the full-time starter? What locker room repercussions would there be for any switch? How good can super-frosh Phil Jurkovec be, and how fast can he get there? Is he a realistic part of the 2018 landscape?

Uneven quarterback play in 2017 almost certainly cost the Irish a playoff berth. It’s not hard to imagine a couple of completions would have tipped the balance of the Georgia game. Similarly, only a slightly more precise performance against Stanford may have put the game out of reach early, before the disastrous fourth quarter snowball hit. Hard Rock Stadium, you say? I don’t believe we played there last year, I have no memory of it…

Fast forward to 2018; while there are significant questions across the offense, there’s a chance at the playoffs again and an excellent chance at a 10-win season if the quarterback play is just above average. The stakes are clearly very high here; perhaps as much of a three- or four-game swing rests on whether the position is a disaster or solid. Book played the game of his life in last season’s coda and put LSU to bed on one of the more memorable Irish bowl game moments. That gave him a ton of momentum in many fans’ eyes as the offseason began, even beyond the usual backup quarterback love. Is he the better option, though?

The Numbers

Brandon Wimbush’s 2017 passing numbers are, charitably, not pretty. He completed 136 of 275 passes for 1870 yds, with 16 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. On the ground, he carried 117 times 914 yards (sacks removed) with 14 touchdowns. He was sacked 24 times for a loss of 111 yards; he also had six fumbles and lost four. Ian Book, in meaningful action, completed 34 of 56 passes for 343 yards, with 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. He carried 20 times for 121 yards and no touchdowns. He was sacked five times for a loss of 30 yards, and had one fumble and none lost. I’m defining “meaningful action” as the UNC, Miami, and LSU games, by the way; his other appearances were all in mop-up duty.

There’s obviously quite a volume difference there, and it may be that Book’s efficiency would increase if he had more volume. Nonetheless, digging into the rate stats creates some interesting comparisons.

Stat Wimbush Book
Comp. Rate 49.5% 60.1%
Yards per Att. 6.8 6.1
Yards per Comp. 13.8 10.0
Att. per Pass TD 17.2 18.7
Plays per TO 41.6 14.0
Plays per Own TD 13.9 27.0

 

“Plays per TO” is (attempts plus carries plus sacks) / (interceptions plus fumbles). “Plays per Own TD” is (attempts plus carries plus sacks) / (pass TDs plus rush TDs), a crude attempt to quantify each player’s overall effectiveness at personally getting the ball in the end zone. Which, you know, is sort of the point of the game…

Book’s advantage in completion rate implies that the offense is less likely to stall under him, which of course is a major mark in his favor. Wimbush’s 0.7 and 3.8 yard advantages in yards per attempt and yards per completion, respectively, are significant but not necessarily enough to tilt the comparison in his favor. The attempts per passing touchdown rates are a wash. Then we get to what I believe are the main reasons why the coaches haven’t given up on Wimbush yet, and why perhaps enthusiasm for Book should be tempered: Last year, Wimbush was about three times less likely to turn the ball over and about twice as likely to put it in the end zone.

The variance on his performance was extremely high, of course, and at the bottom end he was extremely damaging to the offense. Even so, the differences on those two items are remarkable, and the kinds of thing coaches notice. Book is a solid runner but obviously not in the same stratosphere as Wimbush. He also has a gunslinger’s confidence with average arm strength, which makes for some big completions – see LSU – and also some really, really bad turnovers – see, Miami and LSU.

Then we have last year’s red zone TD rate of 76.1%, which was good for eight nationally and the best of Kelly’s tenure by about ten percentage points. I can’t easily get splits on that, but a very large part of that success was due to Wimbush’s running ability and relative care with the football. That diminishes substantially with Book at the helm.

The Verdict

This is not a case for Wimbush as Untouchable QB1. His volatility was a major problem last year, likely costing the Irish the Georgia and Stanford games; similar volatility this year could be crippling. Nor is it a case for Book being unfit to be QB1; he clearly proved his mettle against LSU. Rather, the point is that the case for Book over Wimbush isn’t as open and shut as some Irish fans would have you believe. Book doesn’t have some of the problems Wimbush has, but he does have some of his own problems.

Wimbush’s ceiling is obviously far higher than Book’s, but it’s also far more uncertain. If Michigan State Wimbush shows up 12 times this fall, he’ll win the Heisman and Notre Dame will be in the playoffs. If Miami/Stanford Wimbush shows up, say, three times, his time as NDQB1 will likely be over. I don’t think Notre Dame is a playoff team with Book at the helm, but he’s also less likely to drive the bus into a ditch. That’s the decision the staff is faced with.

Oh, and Phil Jurkovec is a great kid with a very bright future, possibly coming as soon as 2019. But in no way is he part of a realistic answer this year.