The offseason deep dives continue with the Irish passing offense, a unit that also struggled with consistency with Drew Pyne starting ten games. The passing game sometimes feasted on overmatched defenses (UNC, BYU, USC), but more commonly struggled with defenses whether opponents were similarly talented or overmatched.

Defensive coordinators often dared Pyne and the Irish wide receivers to beat them, and the results were mixed, even within the same game (Hello, Navy!). As mentioned in the rushing breakdown, the rushing attack was often asked to shoulder the offensive burden with the passing game used sparingly as a complementary or emergency piece in wins like Syracuse or Clemson.

Previous entries:

The ’22 numbers hide reliability and consistency issues with Pyne

What if I told you that the 2022 Notre Dame passing offense was nearly identical statistically to Ian Book’s final season in 2020? Or at roughly the same level as the Jack Coan-led attack in 2021? The full season numbers paint a picture that doesn’t match the eye test, and the game-to-game inconsistency is a massive reason why.

Drew Pyne’s great passing performances – mostly against ghastly defenses like UNC, BYU, and USC – were phenomenal. In those outings Pyne built up a stash of explosive and efficient performances like he was trying to win the Heisman in NCAA Dynasty mode. Unfortunately he couldn’t unearth the same types of performances against other defenses on the schedule, including strong and weak passing units from Cal to Stanford to Clemson and Syracuse.

Tommy Rees’ conservative approach further helps mask the up-and-down nature of the passing game under Pyne. He attempted more than 30 pass attempts just once, at UNC. In the six game stretch from Stanford to BC, Pyne’s average stat line was 12.5 completions on 24.5 attempts for 164 yards. So he accumulated more overall stats in the great performances, and was shut down more than your average QB as the running game led the way to wins like Syracuse (9-19 for 116) and Clemson (9-17 for 85).

This isn’t to pile on or trash Drew Pyne, but to point out how the season-long stats that aren’t opponent-adjusted can be misleading. Is it funny that Pyne’s passer rating was right by Drake Maye’s, and above JJ McCarthy and Michael Penix? Very! But let’s not pretend it means they were similar caliber passers, or that Notre Dame’s passing attack was adequate.

Sam Hartman + ND Talent + Gerad Parker & Gino Guidulgi = ?

Step 1: Adding a top QB

For years, fans mourned the lack of an elite quarterback at Notre Dame. So why does the reception to Sam Hartman feel almost underwhelming? Questions about Hartman’s pro potential, how the transition from slow mesh to Notre Dame system to be named, and the quality of the receiving weapons seemed to have dampened the joy at Hartman’s arrival.

Let’s ramp up the enthusiasm for a second – whatever your favorite metric, Hartman is a stud:

  • Most valuable P5 player in PFF’s wins above replacement metric looking across the past two seasons
  • 2nd highest PFF graded QB across 2021 and 2022, trailing only #1 pick Bryce Young
  • Led Wake Forest to 12th in EPA/pass last season
  • 2nd in Total EPA gained passing last two seasons, trailing only #2 pick CJ Stroud
  • 12th / 19th in FBS in QBR  the past two seasons (impressive after missing games and with negative rushing value in 2022)

Those gaudy numbers accompany a unique profile in terms of how Hartman is so productive. He was a clear outlier among his peers at Wake Forest thanks to his willingness to push the ball downfield. Last season he had the deepest average depth of target (12.8 yards) by a pretty significant margin – the next highest P5 quarterbacks were Anthony Richardson and Hendon Hooker at 11.5. As a result he led the country in “air yards” despite a lower volume of attempts, and he was pretty excellent taking these shots. Hartman was 3rd in FBS on deep-ball touchdowns and 10th in deep-ball completion percentage among those with enough attempts to qualify.

Step 2: Figure out how to use Hartman

With Hartman’s addition, the hardest job for the Irish passing offense is complete. And while Hartman’s heat map and deep ball tendencies may be unique, he’s not a one-trick pony – his numbers on 3rd down and within a clean pocket are excellent too. The slow mesh RPOs and design of the Demon Deacons offense (including using stud receiver AT Perry) have no doubt impacted Hartman’s profile, but the raw ability enabling that system to be effective is undeniable.

Still, it’s worth pausing to wonder what Hartman’s passing tendencies in the Irish offense will look like. There are hints that Gerad Parker and Gino Guidugli will continue to do many of the things Tommy Rees planned with Hartman, including a more balanced approach to running and passing in 2023. Does Hartman continue throwing bombs? Scatter in more over the middle targets to Notre Dame’s stable of tight ends? Incorporate more screens to leverage YAC ability of players like Chris Tyree and Jayden Thomas?

Step 3: Protect Hartman (from opponents and himself)

The only red flags in Hartman’s profile are the negative plays, and whew did he pile them up last year. As you can see from the chart below, Hartman lost more EPA (expected points added) due to interceptions than any quarterback in FBS in 2022. Things particularly snowballed against Louisville, where Hartman set what I have to believe is a record for EPA lost in a quarter, with three picks (two returned for TDs) and three strip sacks in the 3rd for almost 40 points lost in EPA.

The Wake Forest offensive line also wasn’t great, but analytics tell us sacks are heavily quarterback driven too, and the Demon Deacons were 97th in sack rate (7.8% of dropbacks) in 2022. Will Hartman continue to hold onto the ball too long behind a better line in South Bend (59th in sack rate in 2022)? His 2021 sack rate (6.1%, 58th in FBS) gives some hope, but it’s a clear watch-out area, especially against stacked Ohio State and Clemson defensive lines.

The receivers will see better passes, but there’s a Mayer-sized hole + depth concerns to address

Stop if you’ve heard this before – returning receiving production is one of the most critical factors projecting offenses season to season. And purely from this statistical perspective, Notre Dame is in pretty dire straits, with 62% of last season’s receptions and receiving yards leaving South Bend.

Michael Mayer shouldered an enormous workload, seeing targets on 1/3 of his routes and still managing the highest yards per route run of any FBS tight end. Despite defenses best efforts, Mayer was still efficient and fairly explosive, logging a higher long reception rate than Lorenzo Styles, Jayden Thomas, or Braden Lenzy. His presence also likely had a positive trickle-down effect for the rest of the receivers, even if Pyne couldn’t always take advantage.

Jayden Thomas burst onto the scene with a very nice fall, leading the starting wide receivers in yards per target with solid efficiency and decent explosiveness. Thomas wasn’t targeted often but should see a much bigger workload as the leading returning receiver, and showed promise both on downfield throws as well as creating yards after the catch.

Styles and Lenzy also depart, and their numbers from 2022 highlight the relatively disappointing years. Styles saw almost exclusively short targets and was inefficient when targeted. Lenzy fared slightly better but had one of the lowest explosive play rates and yards per route among wide receivers. How much blame belong with the receivers versus how they were utilized and targeted is up for debate – Lenzy certainly could have benefited from a better deep ball thrower. But I don’t think it’s a slight to either player to think that their production might be easier to replace in real life than statistically, especially with Hartman under center.

Deion Colzie flew under the radar last year recovering from injuries and not receiving a ton of looks from Pyne. But he was extremely effective when targeted down the stretch, with a yards per route run number on par with Mayer and high efficiency despite a workload far downfield and in many high-leverage and 3rd down situations.

What, if anything, can we glean from Chris Tyree’s receiving numbers last season? I’d take them with a heavy dose of salt – you can see that running backs as a whole struggle to be efficient with low depth of targets and receiving many check downs. Still, the lack of explosiveness is a mild concern, hopefully mitigated by a strong catch percentage (a good sign for his hands).

The Irish will need a lot of production from guys not featured on this table from last fall, with Tobias Merriweather, Mitchell Evans, and Jaden Greathouse the most likely contributors. Merriweather could easily jump from only a handful of targets in 2022 to WR1 – his size and freaky athleticism make it easy to envision Hartman lobbing plenty of deep throws his direction. The tight end room lacks a clear blue-chip NFL prospect for the moment but is oozing with quality depth between Evans (the presumptive starter), Holden Staes, Kevin Baumann, and Eli Raridon.

The obvious concern, yet again, is depth. With Styles move to defense and then transfer to Ohio State plus Kaleb Smith’s medical retirement, suddenly Thomas, Merriweather, and Colzie become indispensable. Tyree’s position change is no longer an upside play, but a necessity. At least one of the freshmen (Greathouse, Rico Flores, Braylon James, Kaleb Smith the younger/healthier/still on the roster-er) will need to contribute.

The ’23 passing attack features almost all new ingredients, with Hartman propping up the floor

The ND passing attack is the most difficult unit on the team to project. Hartman is close to a sure thing, but is he slightly less effective transitioning into a new system with new weapons? Or even better than he was at Wake with improved protection and a complementary rushing attack to keep defenses honest? Can the receivers improve on last year’s performance despite the lack of experience and production?

Base projection: A top-20 passing attack that doesn’t quite have the firepower to be elite

With all the moving pieces, it feels like it’s fair to assume Hartman transition to Notre Dame with similar to slightly better production than at Wake Forest, which put them at the edge of a top-10 passing attack before adjusting for competition. The improvement in run support and offensive line likely offset the small loss of proven receiving options (underrated at Wake, who has done a nice job of WR recruiting and development in recent years) Jamie Uyeyama’s recent (and always a must-read) 6 Thoughts touched on Hartman’s relatively low rate of turnover-worthy plays, and the adverse conditions caused by Wake’s defense that also may have contributed to some of his risk-taking.

It’s tempting to project even greater things, but ultimately it feels a couple of proven receiving options away. The ceiling with young talent is high, but the floor is also fairly low – it’s easy to see depth, consistency issues, or the lack of a go-to guy limiting the WR unit. The breakouts of Merriweather or Thomas now feel like “must-haves” as opposed to luxuries. And without going into too much offseason depth, there’s less certainty from a scheme and play-calling standpoint with Parker than there was with Rees or many of the other OC candidates. It should be one of the better passing attacks in recent memory, but it’s hard to see it stacking up among the nation’s best with so many questions about the pass-catching, offensive scheme, and personnel.

Low projection: Pieces take a long time to mesh, and/or injuries tank shallow position groups

In a worst-case scenario, Hartman plays only half the games (or less) and for a second straight season a backup has to salvage what’s possible after the ceiling of the passing game drops significantly. Parker and Guidugli have a difficult time establishing the right balance of rushing and passing and a clear identity for the offense as a whole. The wide receivers are fine but less threatening than anticipated, with no clear game-breaker and fatigue + injuries setting in over the course of the season. Quarterback sacks and turnovers are an issue, and the interior of the line struggles to hold up for long against quality interior DLs.

High projection: A top-10 passing game (on a per-play basis)

The balance of the offensive and lack of receiving depth make it unlikely that Hartman will air it out at the volume needed to compete for the prime end of season awards, unless he’s spectacular in the three biggest games on the schedule. But there’s little doubt in a best-case scenario that the Irish can have a top-10 passing offense in EPA, passer ratings, or yards per attempt. Hartman is that good, already, and could easily clean up the mistakes that plagued him in Winston Salem with a superior supporting cast.

The other key enablers for this to transform into an elite unit:

  • Tobias Merriweather turns into a bona-fide WR1 and NFL draft prospect, piling up a Will Fuller-like sophomore breakout.
  • Jayden Thomas and Deion Colzie round out a balanced starting receiver group that’s efficient converting third downs and land their own share of back-shoulder and jump-ball throws from Hartman. Jaden Greathouse and Chris Tyree pack a potent one-two punch in their snaps from the slot and spelling the starters.
  • The tight ends just keep coming in waves with Mitchell Evans showing downfield ability and Staes and Raridon contributing in key spots. A unit that feels light on pass-catchers suddenly has a lot of potential targets.
  • The offensive line is exceptional in pass-coverage – as expected from the tackles, but critically up the middle too. Hartman has a ton of time to find open targets and improvise downfield, and smartly balances risks with turnover-worthy plays.
  • Parker + Guidugli is a terrific duo, leveraging their combined experiences to build a balanced offensive attack that’s efficient and explosive enough to hang with Ohio State and USC

Ok, that was a little indulgent, but Hartman has the chops to take the passing attack to great places by minimizing negative plays and turnovers and getting some help with some receiver breakouts. That feels very possible – Merriweather is such a physically gifted receiver, Thomas flashed last season and seems like a contender for captain duties, and it’s a decent bet that one of Colzie/Greathouse/Tyree/James becomes a steady contributor, if not more. If anything I’m skeptical about the offensive braintrust being able to mesh and gel early enough.