Pitt Football always seems to find themselves in these types of situations. Even if you take away the games in South Bend in 2018 and 2012, Pitt always seems to find itself as the scrappy unranked underdog in these top ten matchups. Being the only team to knock off Clemson in 2016, giving #2 ranked Miami its first loss the day after Thanksgiving 2017, and the crown jewel of the 2007 season, knocking off potential National Game participant West Virginia 13-9.

Do these games make sense? Of course not but who said college football needs to be? The important part is that Notre Dame fans (hopefully) should be aware of the Pitt Superweapon (TM Shutdown Fullcast). The Irish and Brian Kelly have brushed with its powers and it’s ability to almost wreck promising seasons, almost to the point that if we survive the battle, nothing can harm us, well except for Alabama and Clemson. Let’s see what the 2020 version of the Superweapon has to offer.

Notre Dame (-10.5) at Pitt

Heinz Field
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Date: Saturday, October 24, 2019
Time: 3:30 PM ET
TV: ABC

Pitt season has been an interesting one on the results alone. They take care of Austin Peay with ease, while also keeping Syracuse at arm’s length. They appear to have their statement win over then #24 ranked Louisville, who themselves were reeling after getting embarrassed the week prior to Miami. Then the wheels start to fall off. They lose their first game on a last-second TD pass to NC State and then lose on the road to Boston College in OT in the most Pitt way possible, a missed extra point. Last week they never felt like they were truly in the game in Miami, losing 31-19. Let’s take a look at either side of the ball for the Panthers.

Pitt’s Offense

The Pitt offense lives and breathes by whoever is under center. Senior Kenny Pickett (who emerged in the aforementioned 2017 Miami game) injured his right ankle vs Boston College and missed the Miami game last week. Narduzzi said on Monday that he rehabbed well over the weekend but made a statement that Joey Yellen will start again for Pitt. For Pickett, they miss their senior leader on the field who moved the ball fairly well, leading FBS in passing yards going into last week. Yellen looked decent last week vs Miami. Narduzzi mentioned he was patient in the pocket, but that also led to some coverage sacks on the Miami end, including two fumbles. Yellen was also the beneficiary of two short fields after two INT returns by the Pitt defense. His top weapon looks to be speedy true freshman WR Jordan Addison. Addison set a career-high in yards with 147 last week and had the longest play for the Panthers with a 55 catch and run.

The problem for this offense is the rushing attack seems to be essentially non-existent. They have averaged 108.2 yards per game as a team, which is currently 9th worst in all of FBS. With Yellen in at QB last week, Pitt had fifty yards rushing (with sack yardage taken out). Watching the game back it seemed Miami was stacking the box, seemingly unafraid of Yellen to try and beat them confident in their defensive backs. Pitt’s leading rusher is sophomore Vincent Davis, but only has 242 yards on the season (Kyren Williams has double that for the record). To add insult to literal injury, Pickett has the most rushing TDs on the season with 5 to Davis’ 3. That could be another issue for the Panthers this week against the Irish front seven.

Pitt’s Defense

It will be strength vs strength when the Notre Dame OL will face the Panthers’ top unit in the DL. The defensive line leads the nation in rushing offense and is in the upper tier in all of major statistics. Bill Connelly has Pitt as a top 20 defense. Their DL is led by senior defensive end Patrick Jones II, who currently leads FBS in sacks with 7.0. His most notable game was against Louisville, with 6 total tackles and 3.0 sacks, keeping the Cardinal offense at bay (much like the Irish did last week). The line also boasts two other top sack specialists in Rashad Weaver (who has also forced two fumbles this season) and Phil Campbell. The overall front seven averaged 4.83 sacks per game and will be the best unit this side of Clemson the Irish will face this season.

The other defensive player of note is Junior Strong Safety Paris Ford, who is among the FBS leaders in INT with 3 to his name. His interception last week vs Miami (which was aided by a deflection on the DL) was the first of two short fields for the Pitt offense. He is also just as effective coming into the box and helping the run defense. The Pitt defense currently averages 61.5 rushing yards per game. Their season high in rush yards allowed (116 yards) also came against Louisville, but 75 of those yards came on a Hawkins TD run. It will be interesting to see what OC Tommy Rees, QB Ian Book, and the combo of Kyren Williams and Chris Tyree will have in response to this defensive unit.

Prediction

My worries in this game do not lie with the Notre Dame defense. If Pickett remains out (and as of this writing he is), then I do not see how Pitt can run the ball effectively and control the clock in a way I personally think they need to. Plus, between the secondary getting healthier and the return of Kiser and the importance of him and Foskey getting more involved, the defense seems to be rounding back into its best form. On the other side of the ball, I could see a slow start for the offense if Book can’t push the ball downfield (or even medium-length throws). I think that’s important to stretch out the Pitt defense and open up the holes to get Williams and Tyree in open space. Pitt did get fooled twice on a play-action TE slip play, which could mean potential plays for Tremble or Mayer downfield. I trust the Notre Dame OL and trust them to both protect Book and give the RBs a chance to get to the second level of the defense. My belief is that the Irish may start slow but pull away in the second half to just cover.

Notre Dame 27

Pitt 16

Now, as we mentioned at the top, this game could easily turn sideways just by Pitt’s presence. The Pitt defense is good enough to cause some unexpected turnovers and give their offense a chance to figure out Clark Lea’s defense. The running game could suddenly come alive and pull a Navy type of TOP situation. Yellen could turn into a combination of Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady overnight. This could also be a blowout in Notre Dame’s favor from minute one. One thing is for sure when it comes to Pitt, never tell me the odds. All I know is that there’s another Notre Dame game on Saturday, and for that I say…

Go Irish.