This is the first week for the official College Football Playoff committee rankings. Hey, SMU and Appalachian State have been cruising – let’s discuss the probability that a Group of 5 team will finally make it into the playoff!

The final two G5 undefeateds fell this weekend, so that was fun while it lasted.

Possible resume wins are listed in schedule order, and won’t include potential conference championship game participation until we get closer to that weekend – at this point, if a P5 team is still on the board they have a path to the conference title game. The “538 Table-Running Probability” is taken from the nifty predictor tool available here. I don’t have a preference for 538’s table over SP+, FEI, FPI, or other advanced stats models – they all have pros and cons. 538’s presentation is just the easiest to work with for these purposes.

Undefeated Teams

An undefeated Power 5 team will always control its own destiny. All these teams are thus sitting pretty for the playoff as of today.

#1 Ohio State

This week: vs. Maryland

Resume wins to date: vs. #20 Cincinnati, vs. #13 Wisconsin

Possible resume wins: vs. #4 Penn State, at #14 Michigan

538 table-running probability: 47%

Ohio State is the big winner in the first committee rankings, checking in at #1 here versus #3 in the AP poll. The elevation of them above LSU is interesting; they’ve been more dominant, certainly, with an average margin of victory of 41 points versus LSU’s 27, but LSU has clearly played a better schedule so far. All very academic, of course, as LSU would certainly pass them with a win this week.

#2 LSU

This week: at #3 Alabama

Resume wins to date: vs. #10 Florida, vs. #11 Auburn

Possible resume wins: at #3 Alabama

538 table-running probability: 17%

We’ll note again that Texas could conceivably creep into the back end of the rankings before the season is over, adding another “quality win” for the committee. Their game with Alabama this week is the matchup of the season so far and perhaps the rest of the way as well, with all apologies to #1 Ohio State and #4 Penn State. LSU will take the field in Tuscaloosa as the higher-ranked team for the first time since 2015, when the #4 Tigers fell 30-16 to the #7 Tide. A win this week would vault LSU to #1 and give them a relatively clear path to the top seed of the playoff.

#3 Alabama

This week: vs. #2 LSU

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: vs. #2 LSU, at #11 Auburn

538 table-running probability: 27%

Alabama, like LSU, comes into this massive matchup off a bye. Alabama has been utterly dominant as usual, but LSU is the first opponent they’ll face in the current rankings and only the second opponent they’ll face that was ranked at game time (the other was then-#24 Texas A&M, who is 3-3 against Power 5 competition). In addition to doubts about how tested the Tide have been this year, Tua Tagovailoa is officially a game-time decision. Backup Mac Jones did well last time out against Arkansas, but (a) it’s Arkansas and (b) Tua is Tua.

#4 Penn State

This week: at #17 Minnesota

Resume wins to date: at #18 Iowa, vs. #14 Michigan

Possible resume wins: at #17 Minnesota, at #1 Ohio State

538 Table-Running Probability: 13%

Penn State’s matchup with Minnesota this week provides a key test for both teams. Penn State has shown well in games against Iowa and Michigan but won both by a combined 12 points. They’re good, but how good are they? A road date in balmy Minneapolis will put the Nittany Lions’ bona fides on the line. If they get out of there, they host a respectable Indiana team before traveling to Columbus to take on the Big Ten’s 800-pound gorilla.

#5 Clemson

This week: at North Carolina State

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: vs. #22 Wake Forest

538 table-running probability: 68%

Nothing quite highlights the putrid state of the ACC than Clemson’s laughably weak schedule. Clemson went up against FCS Wofford last week, faces a moribund NC State this week, hosts a not-terrible Wake Forest the next week, has a week off, and then visits a moribund South Carolina. They’ve faced only three opponents to date who have a winning record this season. Blech. If they win out they’ll get in, but it’s hard to see how they could climb back up to the top seed.

#12 Baylor

This week: at TCU

Resume wins to date: at #16 Kansas State

Possible resume wins: vs. #9 Oklahoma

538 table-running probability: 6%

Baylor snuck past a so-so West Virginia at home on Halloween, which is their fourth single-score win this year. Maybe why the committee has six blemished teams ahead of this undefeated Power 5 team, despite a commanding win over the #16 team, which beat the #9 team. Transitive property, and all that. Anyway, after a winnable matchup with TCU this week they’ll host that #9 team the following week, so they’ll get a chance to move.

#17 Minnesota

This week: vs. #4 Penn State

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: vs. #4 Penn State, at #18 Iowa, vs. #13 Wisconsin

538 table-running probability: 2%

The season so far has been a dramedy in two parts for the 8-0 Golden Gophers. They won their first four games by a combined 20 points; their opponents were an FCS team, two Group of 5 teams, and a bad Purdue team. Not great. They won their second four games by a combined 127 points; their opponents were Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, and Maryland. If we’re being honest the second group isn’t much better than the first group, but still, that’s impressive. They have a chance to Row the Boat™ right into the middle of the national discussion this week.

Group of 5 Teams

One Loss Teams

These teams aren’t out of it but will need some breaks to fall their way. The good news for them is that every college football season contains a looooot of breaks.

#6 Georgia

This week: vs. Missouri

Resume wins to date: vs. #15 Notre Dame, vs. #10 Florida (neutral site)

Possible resume wins: at #11 Auburn

The one loss: at South Carolina

538 table-running probability: 14%

The committee rewarded what is clearly the nation’s best one-loss resume, despite that one loss being pretty awful. Setting the loss to Will Muschamp aside, LSU and Georgia are the only teams in the country with two top 15 wins at the moment. Georgia is in the driver’s seat for the SEC East title after knocking off Florida last week, which leaves them very much in control of their playoff destiny. Should they handle a Missouri that is suddenly reeling this week, they may even head to Auburn next week as a top five team.

#7 Oregon

This week: Off

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: None

The one loss: vs. #11 Auburn (neutral site)

538 table-running probability: 44%

Early in the second quarter, Oregon intercepted USC QB Kedon Slovis in the end zone with USC leading 10-0. From that point forward, the Ducks went on a 56-14 scoring run to bludgeon the Trojans into submission. The road domination was undoubtedly Oregon’s most complete performance of the season, but unfortunately for them, that’s not saying much with that their schedule looks like. With no ranked wins in the bank and only Arizona, Arizona State, and Oregon State left, they’re almost certainly going to finish the regular season with no ranked wins. That’s a tough sell for the committee, but things could weird if they win out and beat a top-10 Utah in the Pac 12 title game.

#8 Utah

This week: Off

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: None

The one loss: at USC

538 table-running probability: 32%

Utah won in Seattle last weekend, which is no small feat. Like Alabama, they have yet to face any currently ranked teams, and like Oregon, they’re not going to face any either. They’re in good shape to make the Pac 12 title game, probably against Oregon, and will probably need some help to get in the playoff but they’re definitely still alive.

#9 Oklahoma

This week: vs. Iowa State

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: at #12 Baylor

The one loss: at #16 Kansas State

538 table-running probability: 26%

The Sooners had a week off to mull over their upset loss to Kansas State, which threw a serious wrench in their playoff plans. They host a respectable Iowa State this week before traveling to Baylor – if they get caught looking ahead, Iowa State is more than capable of giving them their second straight upset loss.

#19 Wake Forest

This week: at Virginia Tech

Resume wins to date: None

Possible resume wins: at #4 Clemson

The one loss: vs. Louisville

538 table-running probability: 2%

The Demon Deacons obliterated North Carolina State in a game that wasn’t as close as the 44-10 final indicates. That was a welcome reversal in a schedule that featured one-score margins against every other FBS opponent, including their three-point loss to Louisville. I’m sure if they win by more than one in Blacksburg this week it won’t lead to any dissension in the Irish fanbase. Right?

Off the Board

#10 Florida could still possibly sneak in but it would require so many huge upsets – including them over whoever comes out of the SEC West and additional extraconference insanity – that it seems more than fair to say they’re dead.

#25 SMU got behind big at #18 Memphis and a furious rally came up just short. Similarly, NR Appalachian State tried to storm back against Georgia Southern but couldn’t quite pull it off. Each needs to now hope that the other plus Boise State and Memphis slip up to get back into position for the Group of 5’s automatic NY6 bid. That’s a long, long way from playoff contention.