Notre Dame has put together 3 straight seasons of at least 10 wins (remember when doing this back-to-back was such a hump to get over for the program?) and also achieved that feat in 4 out of the last 5 years, as well. When you look at the team’s yards per play differential these winning seasons all makes sense. This resurgence–especially since the beginning of 2017–has largely been thanks to a renewed focus on defense and back-to-back outstanding hires at the defensive coordinator position.
This is my third year running this article and for reference let’s look back at the last 2 seasons of predictions:
2018 Prediction
5.82 YPP Offense
4.89 YPP Defense
+0.93
2018 Actual
6.00 YPP Offense
4.72 YPP Defense
+1.28
Clark Lea builds upon the Mike Elko foundation and the defense takes a big enough leap to make the playoffs. On the other side, Ian Book rescues the offense from Brandon Wimbush and stabilizes a unit that had some very bright moments but was missing a couple pieces to advance in the playoffs.
2019 Prediction
6.10 YPP Offense
5.05 YPP Defense
+1.05
2019 Actual
6.30 YPP Offense
4.67 YPP Defense
+1.63
It is proven that the Clark Lea hire is not a fluke and that re-loading on defense may be the norm in South Bend. The offense has flaws that are exposed and some are frustrated with Ian Book’s lack of major ascendancy. Yet, the offense still drops the hammer on many opponents and finishes with a Kelly-era high 36.8 points per game.
In terms of yards per play, we are fully into a modern golden era for Notre Dame. The team just saw its best YPP differential mark by far of the Kelly era and it was a mark that was close to finishing inside the top 12 ever in Irish history (1969, 1972, and 1993 teams finished at +1.7 YPP). Just imagine how things could’ve turned out if the team didn’t crap the bed at Michigan?
Kelly-Era YPP (2010-2019)
| YEAR | OFFENSE | DEFENSE | DIFFERENTIAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 5.52 | 5.15 | +0.37 |
| 2011 | 5.93 | 5.05 | +0.88 |
| 2012 | 5.99 | 4.78 | +1.21 |
| 2013 | 6.07 | 5.12 | +0.95 |
| 2014 | 6.11 | 5.60 | +0.51 |
| 2015 | 7.02 | 5.57 | +1.45 |
| 2016 | 6.07 | 5.40 | +0.67 |
| 2017 | 6.39 | 5.05 | +1.34 |
| 2018 | 6.00 | 4.72 | +1.28 |
| 2019 | 6.30 | 4.67 | +1.63 |
Following last year’s 11-2 finish the program moves to 119-19-1 (.859) since 1984 in seasons in which the team finishes with at least +1.0 yards per play differential. That 2019 record actually dropped the winning percentage, but just barely, by a hundredth percent.
Where did this place Notre Dame with the best of the rest across the country?
YPP Differential from AP Ranked Power Programs (2019)
#1 Alabama +3.08
#2 Clemson +2.92
#3 Ohio State +2.81
#4 LSU +2.78
#5 Oklahoma +2.33
#6 Utah +1.95
#7 Georgia +1.79
#8 Notre Dame +1.63
#9 Oregon +1.61
#10 Florida +1.57
#11 Wisconsin +1.51
#12 Baylor +1.33
#13 Minnesota +1.30
#14 Penn State +1.23
#15 Michigan +1.05
#16 Auburn +0.74
#17 Iowa +0.72
#18 Texas +0.26
The top tier with Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, and Oklahoma has been well established for several years. LSU was an outlier this past year (they were only +0.69 in 2018) and will surely take a large step backwards in 2020. But, they won a title so it’s all good.
Imagine the things Oklahoma could do if their defense was just a little better. Their 5.63 YPP allowed is second worse to Texas on the above list. Getting absolutely roasted by LSU in the playoffs (692 yards, 9.35 YPP allowed) doesn’t help the bottom line.
How about Utah! Their defense was stifling as usual but they took a rather large jump (+1.2 YPP) on offense last year . Then again, they did lose by 28 points to aforementioned Texas in their bowl game so that’s not great.
YPP Differential ACC + ND & Navy (2019)
Red italics includes teams on new 10-game ACC schedule.
#1 Clemson +2.92
#2 Notre Dame +1.63
#3 Navy +1.50
#4 North Carolina +1.00
#5 Miami +0.92
#6 Pittsburgh +0.68
#7 Florida State +0.53
#8 Virginia Tech +0.41
#9 Louisville +0.35
#10 Wake Forest -0.06
#11 Virginia -0.09
#12 NC State -0.41
#13 Boston College -0.54
#14 Duke -0.82
#15 Syracuse -0.86
#16 Georgia Tech -1.04
The Irish are essentially dropping a buy game with Western Michigan (+0.48) and replacing Arkansas (-1.33), Wisconsin (+1.51), Stanford (-0.71 LOL), and USC (+0.82) with two really poor teams in the ACC (BC and Syracuse) and a couple of higher-ceiling teams in FSU and UNC.
Normally, I predict the rushing and receiving for each side of the ball but with 11 games scheduled and a good chance some games aren’t even played I’ll skit that for 2020.
Offensively, it’s difficult to see things not getting a little better with 5th-year Ian Book, plus a veteran offensive line and some promising skill position talent. Also, Louisville, Boston College, and Syracuse each gave up at least 6 yards per play on defense last year and are ripe for the picking.
However, it’ll be tough to match the 118 points and 9.31 YPP averaged against New Mexico and Bowling Green last year. 2020 will be a year to be more steady (the Irish offense was under 6.00 YPP against Georgia, UVA, USC, Michigan, Va Tech, and BC last year) and not completely collapse against Clemson or have a bad day against someone like Pittsburgh.
Final answer, I’ll say a very small uptick to 6.37 YPP for the offense in 2020 which I think is going to feel pretty impressive with so many Power 5 opponents and a lack of really poor lower-tier FBS teams.
Obviously, Clemson looms large for the defense. The Tigers launched 538 yards at 6.90 yards per play on the Irish in the 2018 College Football Playoffs, by far the worse marks of the Clark Lea era. Also, teams like North Carolina, Louisville, and Florida State appear to be trending up considerably and could pose many challenges if things click early this fall.
What I do like is that Lea’s defense was much more consistent than the offense last year. Eight out of 13 opponents were held under 5.00 YPP and they didn’t have to rely on blowouts in the cupcakes to maintain the nation’s 6th best defensive YPP among Power 5 programs.
That’s a really high bar to maintain and with some considerable personnel losses I think we’ll see 4.92 YPP for the defense this fall.
This comes out to +1.45 YPP differential which would tie 2015 for the second best of the Kelly era. With a mark like that a 10-1 record feels about right but 9-2 wouldn’t be too far behind as the most likely outcome.
Ah yes, another reminder of how bad the BVG era was. That 15 team was so talented. They absolutely should have been a 12-1 team. There is definitely a scenario (where Ohio state misses the playoffs) that the 15 team makes a lot of noise in the playoffs.
Interested as that what last years offensive YPP would look like with an explosive back. TJJ had the long run in the Iowa state game. Can’t think of another 40 yard run for a rb.
Yup, definitely could have made some noise. Although, the program still hasn’t put together great YPP on both sides of the ball at the same time in a single year. So frustrating.
I was remarking to our writers that +2.6 YPP is the best ever mark at Notre Dame (1966) and can you imagine being like Bama over 3.0 and not really coming close to a title!??
If the Offense manages to improve or maintain its YPP with all of the new faces at the skill positions (and no New Mexico/BG on the schedule), that will be a huge feather in the cap of Tommy Rees. The team is pretty clearly going to have more talent than last year, but will they be able to come together cohesively? So much of Book’s passing ability relies on great timing on short routes; if Rees can get him on the same page with all of these new pass catchers, I will be extraordinarily impressed.
I’m excited about Rees/Book and those short route, tbh.
I love the idea of getting Lenzy going on short crossing or drag routes. Run him across the field one way, with Austin and Skowronek coming across the opposite direction. If the defense plays man, there’s no way anybody is sticking with Lenzy on that route. If they go zone, one of Austin or Skowronek is going to almost assuredly have a matchup with a guy much shorter than them, where Book can just throw a nice high pass for an easy 8-10 yards.
While I’m excited about the possibility of Lenzy taking the tops off of defenses, I agree that the short routes should be fun this year. Lenzy showed how huge of a weapon he can be running horizontally on all of those sweeps last year, and Book’s short pass accuracy could make Lenzy even more dangerous coming across just a few yards up the field. The weapons are there. Just hope there’s enough time for it to all come together.
The defense will be interesting – Clemson, UNC, and Louisville are all big-time tests with QB and skill position talent.
But after that, FSU is in the middle (decent returning talent + Norvell boosts the offense, but probably not as scary as the other three), and the rest of the offenses should be pretty terrible. Who would be the scariest offense of the remaining seven teams? Navy or BC on paper? Pitt if Pickett makes an unlikely leap?
If this whole thing somehow happens but rosters are constantly in flux, I also think that ND depth of talent on defense will be better than depth of talent on offense but all these teams minus Clemson.
Seems like Pitt is due for a good-ish year on offense.
The lack of cupcakes will effect everyone. The advantage of an experienced team, even if we have a new OC, the question will be how much new Rees actually installs.
Yeah, that will be interesting to see how everyone deals with the grind (to say nothing of the virus!) of so many Power 5 games in a row. Like the good old days.
I’m on Team Under as well. All P5 opponents, plus Clemson is going to make it tough to exceed last year, IMO. Also Pitt is getting hyped for their defense, which might be sneakily pretty good.