This is my 4th year attempting to predict Notre Dame football’s yards-per-play differential for the season. In an era where we are flooded with advanced stats and metrics this is the one traditional number that I find still has enough correlation and sway to make sense of this game we all love.

Before we get to 2021, let’s take a look back at my past predictions:

2018 Prediction
5.82 YPP Offense
4.89 YPP Defense
+0.93

2018 Actual
6.00 YPP Offense
4.72 YPP Defense
+1.28

***

2019 Prediction
6.10 YPP Offense
5.05 YPP Defense
+1.05

2019 Actual
6.30 YPP Offense
4.67 YPP Defense
+1.63

***

2020 Prediction
6.37 YPP Offense
4.92 YPP Defense
+1.45

2020 Actual
6.21 YPP Offense
5.56 YPP Defense
+0.65

Yes, after 2 straight years of overachieving based on my expectations the Notre Dame YPP Differential came crashing down way, way below +1.0 last season. Despite making the playoffs, the final YPP ended up being the 3rd worst of the Kelly era, even trailing the 2016 season!

What the heck happened!??

Kelly-Era YPP (2010-2020)

Obviously, facing Alabama and Clemson twice in the same season had quite a bit to do with the drop, especially with the Tigers being much healthier for the rematch in the ACC Championship Game.

Through the 10 regular season games in 2020, the Irish were sitting at a respectable +1.44 YPP differential. That’s not great on a national scale most years but it was just a hair below 2015 for the 3rd best mark of the Brian Kelly era and as you’ll see below put the Irish squarely in the mix as a playoff team.

Then, the post-season happened.

The offense tends to get most of the headlines but that side of the ball “only” dropped -0.29 after games 11 and 12 following back-to-back defeats. The Clark Lea defense was absolutely battered with a -0.50 full half-yard drop after meeting Trevor Lawrence-led Clemson and Alabama ultimately finishing with a late-Diaco era-type of YPP margin.

YPP Differential from AP Ranked Power Programs (2020)

#1 Alabama +2.77
#2 North Carolina +1.79
#3 Oklahoma +1.78
#4 Clemson +1.67
#5 Ohio State +1.44
#6 Texas +1.43
#7 Georgia +1.35
#8 Florida +1.22
#9 Texas A&M +1.13
#10 Iowa +1.08
#11 Iowa State +0.95
#12 Notre Dame +0.65
#13 Miami +0.43
#14 Oklahoma State +0.21
#15 USC +0.08
#16 Northwestern -0.07
#17 Indiana -0.47

As we know, 2020 brought us plenty of wackiness with unbalanced schedules and cancellations all across the country. Alabama’s differential actually fell from last year and yet they just missed out on lapping the 2nd best team in the country by a full yard per play. It’s obscene, especially considering the Tide faced 5 opponents in the Top 11 last year.

In 2019, 5 programs (Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, LSU, Oklahoma) finished over +2.0 YPP and to see no one outside of Alabama come close in 2020 was very odd indeed. I’d bet Alabama, Oklahoma, and Clemson will easily meet this threshold in 2021.

I sometimes look at really good YPP and figure part of that is an easier schedule and/or beating up on bad teams (like North Carolina who had 4 games on offense over 8.0 YPP) which isn’t always a great indicator of current or future success. However, a really poor YPP is definitely something that can be a huge red flag (whoa, Indiana) but again injuries and Covid really made this a weird season.

2020 YPP Differential for 2021 Opponents

#1 Cincinnati +2.10
#2 North Carolina +1.79
#3 Toledo +1.07
#4 Virginia Tech +0.48
#5 Purdue +0.32
#6 USC +0.08
#7 Wisconsin -0.12
#8 Georgia Tech -0.22
#9 Stanford -0.58
#10 Virginia -0.71
#11 Florida State -0.93
#12 Navy -1.46

This is a good example of how some might not think Notre Dame’s schedule will be all that daunting, especially if you’re ready to dismiss Cincinnati out of hand for being an AAC team from which the Irish just stole their star defensive coordinator in the off-season. We saw Notre Dame dominate UNC in the 2nd half last year (plenty are dismissing the Heels as a result), there’s a MAC team in 3rd (!) on this list, and there’s a huge bet for the tough schedule crowd that a handful of teams (USC, Wisconsin, UVA, maybe FSU) are going to improve a decent amount or more.

I think it’ll be a very tricky and challenging schedule but I can see how some believe very little of the upside for many of these teams will all come together in 2021. One thing that sticks out to me: Don’t expect Wisconsin’s offense to be so poor again. They dropped -1.45 YPP from 2019 to 2020 on that side of the ball and I would be very surprised if they aren’t much closer to 6.0 YPP at worst again in 2021.

My 2021 Predicition

Offense: 6.04

Defense: 4.97

Differential: +1.07

This is a schedule light on cupcakes, so I’m hesitant to predict some gaudy numbers on either side of the ball. By most measures, the United States Naval Academy will be the worst team and while they’ve really struggled lately there’s always the potential that they improve quickly with a dangerous quarterback emerging seemingly out of nowhere, plus we know well they could hog the ball and depress bulk yardage for Notre Dame.

Defensively, I think we’ll see some very dominant stretches and if the practice reports are to be believed a ton of disruption from the front seven which should shoot down opposing YPP from last year. However, this has to be balanced against a really strong group of quarterbacks lining up against the Irish. If I’m honest, I think these quarterbacks are likely to get in some good shots and maybe connect on some big plays against Notre Dame. Still, a sub 5.0 YPP for defense is dang good.

My instinct is to fight back against the notion this is about to be a wide open passing attack (we’re going to attack all areas of the field now!) that is magically going to transform the Irish offense. The offensive line may not hit the ground running which could slow down the run game, there isn’t a nimble-footed quarterback under center anymore which could mean more sacks and fewer third down conversions from his feet, and as heartening as the reports about developing depth at receiver are in August I think we’re truthfully putting a lot of stock in Kevin Austin exploding nationally for the passing game to really take off.

However, I’m high on this being a competent, consistent, and ultimately good offense with a chance that Coan develops a dynamic repertoire with Austin and Michael Mayer. It’s just without a snack of the likes of Bowling Green or New Mexico (combined 9.23 YPP in those recent meetings) and a huge pack of okay/decent/very good opponents there’s a case to be made a YPP north of 6.0 will feel pretty solid.

Is +1.07 YPP differential anything to write home about? That prediction likely means Notre Dame remains a top 15 team for 2021 but probably not finishing anything higher than 8th or 9th nationally.