Hopefully this is proven out to be in the Catholic “A broken world from which Grace is the redemption” and not “The return window has already closed so you’re SOL.”
At any rate, I’m going to knock out one framing piece before the workday picks up here and hopefully go through a similar exercise for two or three more plays later on in the week.
The Game Opener
Let’s just start with the first play, as it establishes a great many themes.
1st Image: We have Trips to the field and NIU showing split safeties with the boundary safety rotated down.
2nd Image: On the snap we show we are in max protect (TE and RB stay in for pass pro) — this is a shot play. The NIU boundary corner bluffs a blitz (shows he’s coming but then camps out in the flat), while the rolled down boundary safety bails deep – this is a conservative Cover 3 the whole way. Leonard is looking to the field side, I would presume to see if the now single high safety has declared, and/or if Mitchell has won off the line (think of the long TD we threw to Merriweather early on vs. Central Michigan last year). The scheme seems very likely to be flys on the outside (with a read to run a stop/comeback if the DBs play far over the top) with a post down the middle
Note: a QB who is really seeing the field would, in my opinion, have picked up the movement from the right side as well as the boundary safety bailing deep and gotten the ball out to Collins right away. A quick pass and Collins is one-on-one vs. a defender whose hips and momentum are moving the other way; could have been a huge play.Â
3rd Image: Top of the drop, Leonard has a lot of good choices! Collins is still open (though less set up for an explosive than before). Mitchell has given up the ghost on the go and is settling in for a comeback/stopper (doesn’t get great separation, but more on that later). Also, there’s a large running lane up front if he just wants to bail and get loose. Does he do any of those, though?
4th Image: No. 2 seconds later he is rolling right — directly into the path of the bluff CB from earlier. This is a huge scouting win for NIU. Greathouse did not win across the face of the NIU safety. Collins has at least wisely settled into the zone and we get like 8 yards out of it. Below the images we will unpack some themes.
Some Emergent Themes
Of course, it is overwrought to draw much from this single play, but the following points rebut that disclaimer: 1) we all saw the rest of the game and this play was not at all a one off incident and 2) this is literally the opening play of the game! They repped the hell out of this all week in practice and went through the various scenarios for how it might unfold in great detail. This is as close to a “clean look” as you’re going to get. Even Brandon Wimbush (who was like a rich man’s Leonard) was able to rip off some good openers back in his day.
Anyway, the themes:
- NIU Outcoached the Hell Out of Us Here. They were not only ready for a shot play, but they bet heavily on Leonard’s tendency to bail to his right (and conversely, ND evidently did not feel like this tendency was a risk to them)
- Leonard is Not Seeing the Field Well. He’s not seeing things or not trusting what he sees or not sure what to even look for, or some combination thereof
- The Total Lack of QB/WR Chemistry is Killing Us. This comes up more later but it is pretty clear the WRs do not have any internal sense around when or where to expect the ball from Leonard — what he looks for as a trigger point, what his habitual placement might be, etc. In a lot of their breaks and route adjustments they are making efforts to be seen by the QB to induce a throw; even when Leonard throws it to them with anticipation it’s all terribly out of sync.
- These Aren’t LSU WRs. The NIU CB over Mitchell and the FS play this pretty well, but not being able to cleanly win against MAC secondary guys is a bad look for Greathouse and Mitchell. Greathouse’s straight line speed is ok but the explosion in and out of his break to the post is not good. Mitchell’s guy is bailing the entire time but it isn’t as though there was a huge initial cushion. You’d want to see a different type of acceleration in a truly threatening field guy.
Ok, that’s all for now. Hopefully this doesn’t become a season-long series.
I can’t get this sentence out of my head now because it’s so accurate.
Nice. Tell me — can Faison make any kind of difference?
And this encapsulates the problem with the passing offense perfectly. The play call here worked on a number of levels. The WRs executed. Leonard did not.
Denbrock can be faulted for simple play calls, but I don’t think Leonard can execute more than that.
By the end of the game, since there were only two throws over 20 yards, the safeties were in the box focusing on the run. Other than the pass to Evans for the first down, I don’t think he completed a pass over 10 yards in the air.
The other problem is his inaccuracy is inconsistent. If it was always high or low or right or left, you could fix it. He misses randomly.
The other issue is he rarely steps up in the pocket. He runs back and right. He trusts his legs (too much) and not his eyes or arm. He doesn’t see the field well, at all, and it really doesn’t matter which reason (except again to try and fix it). He plays, and makes decisions, like a freshman with three years of experience.
Now, the WRs are not much to write home about either. Collins seems Ok. We barely use Thomas. Greathouse seems to be himself, but without a QB. Mitchell is not very good, or perhaps is good at running deep and being hit in stride, but he don’t have a QB that can make that throw.
As an example of a play we always used to have, the seam route. Our OCs since time immemorial, including Denbrock 1.0, used that route regularly. It requires accuracy, so it seems to be gone from the playbook. Too bad. Greathouse or Evans on a seam was a great play for Hartman. It seemed to be the base passing play for Ian Book. It can hide a weak arm, but not an inaccurate one.
That point about being seen? I saw a breakdown of the killer interception similar to this on Reddit, and I swear you can see three open receivers underneath WAVING THEIR HANDS at Leonard.
They know they are open, and they can see that Leonard has locked his eyes downfield and they are praying he progresses back to them.
Ron Howard narrator voice: Leonard…did not.
I have seen that video as well. I think he makes one read, perhaps too, but has zero anticipation. Much like Wimbush it is look and run. On the second field goal at A&M, the TE was wide open in the end zone on the side he was scrambling to, but he didn’t see him and instead threw a worm burner to the open RB/WR at the goal line. That was 4 points.
I know this all to be true. I’m so pissed at myself for believing the off season hype.
II (from 247) just reported he hurt his labrum in the game and he’s being evaluated.
Thanks for this breakdown — kinda makes me sad. At this point, even if Leonard is not hurt, he should not be starting