Around this time a year ago I published my annual way-too-early guess at Notre Dame’s recruiting class of 2021.
At the time, we were still very early into the COVID-19 pandemic, and I couldn’t predict at the time what a truly unique year it would be for college football. Aside from the uncertainty that a season would even happen until the first game of the season kicked off, the recruiting process at every school across the country was flipped upside down by a recruiting dead period that was announced just weeks after my early guess was published — a dead period which has now been extended through May of 2021.
With all that in mind, I think a handicap is in order when critiquing my early prediction, as well as the prediction to come for the class of 2022.
The Best Guess
Players in bold were correct predictions, players in italics were commits at the time of publishing my best guess.
QB — Tyler Buchner
RB — Will Shipley, Prophet Brown
WR — Deion Colzie, Lorenzo Styles, Andrel Anthony
TE — Cane Berrong
OL — Blake Fisher, Garrett Dellinger, Wyatt Milum, Pat Coogan
DE — David Abiara, Jason Onye
DT — Gabe Rubio, Aaron Armitage
LB — Ben Perry, Aidan Hubbard
DB — Daylan Carnell, Deuce Harmon, Justin Walters, Jaden Slocum
ATH — Titus Mokiao-Atimalala, Donovan McMillon
Total signees: 23
The Reality
QB — Tyler Buchner, Ronnie Powlus
RB — Audric Estime, Logan Diggs
WR — Deion Colzie, Lorenzo Styles, Jayden Thomas
TE — Cane Berrong, Mitch Evans
OL — Blake Fisher, Rocco Spindler, Caleb Johnson, Joe Alt, Pat Coogan
DE — Will Schweitzer, Devin Aupiu, Jason Onye
DT — Gabe Rubio
LB — Prince Kollie, Kahanu Kia
DB — Philip Riley, Ryan Barnes, Chance Tucker, JoJo Johnson, Justin Walters, Khari Gee
K — Josh Bryan
Total Signees: 27
The Review
It is what it is. Only two of the recruits in my early guess who weren’t already committed to Notre Dame at the time ended up signing with the Irish. Although I guess I should get partial credit for David Abiara? Looking at the guys who didn’t end up at Notre Dame, that group was almost entirely made up of guys who either never got to visit Notre Dame, or didn’t end up a priority for the Irish staff. The two exceptions to this were Will Shipley and David Abiara, but I’ll get into more detail for them shortly.
QUARTERBACK
No drama here, although the quarterback position did come with a signing day surprise. Tyler Buchner verbally committed to the Irish back in March of 2019 and never wavered, and Ronnie Powlus III committed on NSD to add depth to the QB room.
RUNNING BACK
Will Shipley had both an unofficial visit and an official visit to South Bend in the works until the dead period killed those plans, along with my hopes and dreams. He got a Clemson visit in right before the dead period started and Notre Dame couldn’t take back the lead without getting him on campus. Prophet Brown never got to visit South Bend and ended up signing with the in-state USC Trojans as a cornerback.
Instead, the Irish were able to salvage the position by flipping blue-chip Audric Estime from Michigan State and staving off a late push by LSU to secure the signing of Logan Diggs.
WIDE RECEIVER
Lorenzo Styles proved this fall that he has what it takes to be an impact receiver at the college level. There was a bit of drama surrounding the Deion Colzie recruitment for a minute as he decommitted from the Irish late in the spring before recommitting early in the fall.
I’m pretty confident that ND would have landed Andrel Anthony if they wanted him, but the staff favored Jayden Thomas. Anthony ended up signing with Michigan.
TIGHT END
Similar to Buchner, Cane Berrong was a kid who committed early in the process and never came close to wavering. Notre Dame did sign a jumbo tight end as well, though, in 6’7″ Ohioan Mitch Evans.
OFFENSIVE LINE
I did get two names right along the OL — Blake Fisher and Pat Coogan. These two are such perfect fits and the Coogan projection pick just made a ton of sense even at this early stage last year.
Garrett Dellinger I think would have ended up in South Bend if the staff had made him a consistent priority, but they were pretty hot and cold with his recruitment. From what I’ve heard, the ND staff had some concerns with his injury history, but he found a good place in LSU. Wyatt Milum had a spring visit to South Bend planned that never occurred due to the dead period, and I think he realized pretty quickly into the dead period that visits were never going to happen because he promptly committed to his home-state West Virginia Mountaineers.
The Irish also landed two good tackle prospects in Caleb Johnson and Joe Alt — two 6’7″ guys with a ton of potential. Alt is the most raw prospect along the OL, but with his NFL pedigree and natural athleticism he’s got the highest upside of the entire group.
Rocco Spindler was a really fun recruitment to follow near the end. He kinda pulled the reverse Braiden McGregor, where he committed to the Irish and then let Michigan waste their time on him for a month or so before making his commitment public. Michigan insiders had spent months leading up to his announcement insisting the Wolverines held the lead because Jeff Quinn sucked and Ed Warriner was the best OL coach in the country (paraphrasing). Well, guess which one kept his job at the end of the year.
DEFENSIVE END
I was correct projecting Jason Onye to ND and, to an extent, correct about David Abiara as well. Both were committed to ND at one point, but while Onye was rock-solid in his commitment, there was a ton of wavering for Abiara for a while. Eventually Abiara decided to stick with ND, but that plan flew out the window after it was discovered that he’d been arrested early in the fall and kinda forgot to tell the Notre Dame staff about it until his arrest popped up in the news a few weeks later. He ended up signing with Texas.
The Irish closed out defensive end recruiting by flipping Will Schweitzer from Nebraska over the summer and Devin Aupiu from UCLA in December. Schweitzer, in particular, has a lot of potential at the Vyper position.
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Gabe Rubio was another early commit who never came close to wavering. He’s one of the best DT prospects Notre Dame has landed over the past few years, in my opinion. Aaron Armitage is another guy that Notre Dame probably would have landed if they’d made him a priority, but the Irish felt comfortable with one tackle this cycle and Armitage ended up at Stanford.
LINEBACKER
Neither of the two guys I had pegged to Notre Dame ended up receiving an offer from the Fighting Irish, although they probably would have signed with ND if they had. Ben Perry signed with Louisville and Aidan Hubbard signed with Northwestern.
Instead Notre Dame landed the high school Butkus Award winner, Prince Kollie, as well as Punahou product Kahanu Kia. It’s my opinion that both of these guys are underrated by recruiting services, and that’s saying a lot for Kollie as he’s in the Top 150 of the 247Sports Composite rankings.
DEFENSIVE BACK
The Justin Walters pick was easy as he’d already committed to the Irish at the time. I really wish we could have seen his senior season but, alas, it was not meant to be.
None of Deuce Harmon, Jaden Slocum, Donovan McMillon, or Titus Mokiao-Atimalala got to visit Notre Dame, which killed any chance of them ending up in South Bend. Harmon signed with Texas A&M, Slocum signed with Stanford, McMillon signed with Florida, and TMA signed with UCF. I really would have liked to see TMA, in particular end up in South Bend. Notre Dame might have been able to land him without a visit, but he’s pretty set on playing receiver in college and the Irish wanted him to play safety.
There were a few flips in Notre Dame’s favor at DB this cycle. Philip Riley flipped from Notre Dame to USC, but then flipped back to Notre Dame. JoJo Johnson flipped from Cincinatti to the Irish in the fall, and Khari Gee was a signing day flip from LSU.
The Irish also beat Michigan and Clemson for Ryan Barnes, and pulled Chance Tucker away from the West Coast and the Washington Huskies.
KICKER
It didn’t seem like a sure thing that Notre Dame would go after a specialist this cycle, but I think the year that Doerer had solidified the decision to take one for ND. He really seemed to regress as the year went on, so the Irish flipped Josh Bryan — the #1 kicker via Chris Sailer Kicking — from Colorado.
And there you have it. Overall, not a great early guess for how the class of 2021 would end up for Notre Dame. I’m cutting myself some slack with the times being what they are, though.
Hopefully my next way-too-early guess will be better. It sure can’t get much worse!
This project is always one of the best of the year. You’re totally right to give yourself a ton of grace for this year, this was totally unexpected and new ground for everyone. Completely unpredictable year. Good work as always, can’t wait to see the next projection.
Curious which class do you prefer? Your original projection (Shipley, milum) or the actual class (Kollie, Spindler and tons of numbers)
I’m really tempted to pick the early guess just because of Shipley at RB and TMA at safety, it’s close though.
I agree with Hooks that the projection (and the review) are some of the best pieces of the year — I really like that you do this. As for last year, we’ll give you a chance to redeem yourself with your picks this year.
Curious about your take with this recent class — it seemed like ND took a large group, with a significant number of 3 stars, and of that group, a number who seem to be all about potential/projection. Do you think it was wise to take so many last year, especially with so many of them seeming like projects? Or was it a necessity with people leaving?
Not Tyler, but… We needed numbers at OL and DB in the 2021 class, and those two groups account for 11 of the 27 spots. We really needed to snag multiple DEs with what we’re likely to lose in the next couple of years, so three guys there makes sense too. I think the staff is willing to throw numbers at the wall and see what pans out. Also, just one guy, but it’s not settled yet when or if Kia, who is LDS, will leave for his mission after this season.
I would also venture to guess that the staff is building some insulation against the one-time free transfer rule that everyone assumes is going to pass soon, and maybe building some insulation against eventual COVID recruit transfers too from the kids who haven’t really experienced campus before.
And finally, I like the type of 3*s that we’re taking flyers on. Barnes is severely underrated (DB class grades coming out in about a week). Tucker and Johnson are serious speed guys. Alt and Evans are athletic monsters. Diggs was a big producer at the highest level of Louisiana prep football. Kia? Give me all the Hawaiians, man. And so on.
Thanks for the reply. My hesitancy with the “throw numbers against the wall” approach is that it reminds me a little of when BVG first joined the staff and he added some low-rated recruits — it seemed like none of them ended up doing much. Maybe I still have a little bit of PTSD from that era, haha
Some of those flyers do seem to have high ceilings, but I also know that for every 3-star feel good story, there are plenty of others who do not end up doing much. Hopefully these are some future players that were severely underrated due to the pandemic and lost/shortened seasons.
Oh, the pandemic is definitely partly to blame for the number of three stars. IMO Barnes and Tucker would be four stars for sure, probably Diggs, and maybe Schweitzer, Kia, and Gee if we had camps, visits, full seasons, and analyst travel in 2020.
Also, without naming names, there’s a very big gap between some of the BVG warm bodies and the three stars we take nowadays. There were some guys in the BVG era who from Day 1 just had no chance of ever playing a meaningful snap. These guys aren’t that. They have physical ability, their development is just an open question.
To echo Brendan, I think you hit on it at the end. Last season was a major challenge for all involved due to the pandemic, but I believe that it also represented a golden opportunity for programs who have a lot of confidence in their staffs to out-scout the services. And it seemed apparent based on the large number in this class that ND thinks they have a fair number of kids who were somewhat overlooked during the process and ultimately too good to pass up. Fingers crossed.
PVGSD….is a thing.
This is a tough task under normal circumstances but basically a damn crapshoot given the restrictions on visits and contact. I wonder how many of the players who ultimately committed weren’t even on ND’s radar at the time you posted your predictions. Guessing it was more than a few. Regardless, it’s always interesting to look back at the guys we thought might end up at ND who never even came all that close.
Yeah there are always a few guys that aren’t on the radar in February but end up in the class.
Believe it or not, Prince Kollie didn’t have any scholarship offers until Georgia Tech offered him on 2/26/20.
Wow, that’s really wild, especially considering where he ended up at the end of 2020. Kinda feel sorry for GT, they were the first ones there but then everyone else got to the party.