Warning: This is not going to be pretty. For the sake of limiting the discussion we will set aside the offensive line play and/or play-calling and/or coaching to focus primarily on the running backs. Before we dig into the numbers below a few points to mention:
1) Much Love to Tony Jones Jr.
For the most part Tony Jones is excluded from the negativity in this post. Not only did he seemingly reach his ceiling he outplayed just about everyone’s expectations. Think about a situation where he has to miss 3 or 4 games this year and it could’ve been really ugly. He sat out the Virginia Tech game nursing an injury and it wasn’t pretty–only 8 successful running back carries from 34.7% success overall while barely reaching 100 yards as a team. Given the opponent it was up there as the worst performance of the season.
Jones announced Tuesday night that he’s skipping his 5th-year of eligibility to pursue the NFL. Hat tip, sir.
2) It Could’ve Been Real Dark without Book’s Legs
In the grand scheme, Book was basically a second running back when you look at the numbers. The second, third, and fourth string tailbacks totaled 136 carries to Book’s 98 non-sack carries. To foreshadow the issues below Book out-gained those three running backs by 82 yards.
3) The Recruiting Misses Mattered for 2019
The fear is that the poor recruiting at running back will continue to harm the program in 2020 but for this past season it definitely played a role. We could quibble about the lack of development or lack of talent, of course. Bottom line no one made a jump in 2019 and it really killed the offense at times.
2019 Running Back Stats
| PLAYER | CARRIES | YARDS | AVERAGE | SUCCESS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Jones | 144 | 857 | 5.95 | 52.0% |
| Jahmir Smith | 42 | 180 | 4.29 | 45.2% |
| C’Bo Flemister | 48 | 162 | 3.38 | 47.9% |
| Jafar Armstrong | 46 | 122 | 2.65 | 36.9% |
| Kyren Williams | 4 | 26 | 6.50 | 75.0% |
| Avery Davis | 6 | 10 | 1.67 | 50.0% |
Note: I use the “old” advanced stat of measuring running success (40% of available yards on 1st down, 60% 2nd down, 100% on 3rd/4th down) because I’m not going back and re-calculating years worth of data. So, for most current success metrics these numbers are actually a bit kinder than you’ll see elsewhere. I generally think 52% (using my numbers) is the starting point for a good back unless you’re really explosive.
Since the top four backs carried the ball at least 40 times let’s use that as the cut-off mark for qualification during the Brian Kelly era. That leaves us with the running back ranks for 2019 as follows:
Jones 17th
Flemister 23rd
Smith 26th
Armstrong 29th
This means 2019 brought us the 1st, 4th, and 7th worst seasons by success rate for a Notre Dame running back with at least 40 carries over the last 10 seasons. Dexter Williams had 39 carries in his 2017 season so if he’s included that drops Jones down to 18th. Either way, this is an impressive season for Jones who basically gave the Irish an above average to good season while being backed up by struggling teammates.
The biggest issue for Jones–and this will be a talking point for all of the backs going into next year–is that he finished just 4 for 17 (23.5%) in success rate in the losses against Georgia and Michigan. Jones’ 55.9% success rate for the other 9 games he played was a life saver but can Notre Dame get something better in the big games next year? Who will be that primary running back?
By the way, Book finished with a 52% success rate while running the ball. The offense was actually modestly explosive on the ground in 2019 and Book was a big part of that. As was Braden Lenzy–who by the way–finished third on the team in rushing behind Jones and Book on just THIRTEEN carries. It would be utterly insane not to head into 2020 planning on getting Lenzy 2 to 3 rushes per game especially after he proved he can play a lot more physical later this past season.
There was a snap in the Camping World Bowl that stuck out to me:
Circled in yellow is true freshman running back Breece Hall who has Khalid Kareem barreling down on him to his left and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah setting the edge and waiting for him near the line of scrimmage. This play was so memorable for multiple reasons:
One, Iowa State’s offensive line might as well have been on the sidelines. MTA nearly blows up the mesh point he’s in the backfield so quickly.
Two, Kareem was unblocked but damn it if he isn’t super athletic for a strong-side end. It’s also fun to watch JOK on this snap because he reads the play, crosses behind Kyle Hamilton, all while looking like he’s in fast-forward compared to everyone else.
Three, I was absolutely certain this was going to be a tackle for loss for Notre Dame.
It was not.
Hall makes a fantastic cut up field avoiding the diving Kareem and jukes JOK for a gain of 9 yards. JOK was by far the player of the game and yet Hall won this snap in a big way with a nifty piece of athleticism.
What’s funny is that this snap reminded me so much of the play highlighted in my Elusive Rating* article back in mid-September from true freshman Kyren Williams. The Irish ended up giving Williams a redshirt but he should play a much bigger role in spring practices now that Tony Jones has declared for the Draft.
*After my initial elusive rating post I stopped for two reasons. First, it takes a long time! But secondly, no other back besides Jones really played all that much to warrant investing time in each grade. We’ll see how things work out next year and if I think it’s worth it to track for 2020.
It’s going to be a difficult off-season for running backs coach Lance Taylor as he sorts through the depth chart in a post-Tony Jones world (still feels weird typing that but here we are) especially since 5-star prospect Chris Tyree won’t report until the summer.
Kelly says he wants to upgrade ND’s recruiting, RB is obviously one position that ND needs to improve it’s recruiting at. Tyree is a nice start. A top 100 guy every year or two would be nice. Certainly ND needs better than 3 stars every year. The Big Boys all do better than that. We look to be in good shape with 1 or 2 guys in 2021. Hiring Taylor at RB coach may have helped.
I would not move Armstrong to the slot yet. Though he hasn’t looked like a natural, I think you need to leave him at RB in the hope that he and a couple others get better and that their improvement, along with a contribution from Tyree, can improve the run game. He’s not a big guy so we shouldn’t expect Tyree to carry too much of the load next year or maybe ever. A little self scouting of the entire run game is probably in order. The run game is one of the reasons why I hope Kelly goes outside for his new OC.
The issue Notre Dame will have to solve is something you touch on with Armstrong, “He’s not a big guy”. He’s more in the style of a Prosise as the WR convert that should be more of the speed guy. But Armstrong has a weird tendency to seek contact, almost as if to prove he can run tough (when he doesn’t really need to).
I know they don’t get to chose, but the team would be better off having Jones back next year as the reliable inside the tackles guy to even out the styles with Tyree as more the speed/outside guy. Now they’ve kinda got 2 of those types of backs and I guess have to figure out if Flemister or Smith or Williams fits in.
I said Tyree wasn’t a big guy, therefore he should be used wisely…. Armstrong is 6’1″ 220 lbs.(Prosise was almost identical), which makes him easily our biggest RB. His issue is not knowing when he should lower his pads or when he should use his speed. His RB instincts are not great.
Bad reading comprehension on my part. I’m surprised Armstrong is 220, he doesn’t look like it to me all that much. Yeah, Tyree’s like 185, he should be the one in the Lenzy role taking jet sweeps (or faking it for wheel routes) and is going to need to be used in space a lot.
I think I saw 175 lbs. as Tyree’s official weight at the Under Armor game.
He is very light. He also gets hurt a lot, many of my VA friends are not as bullish on him as the fans are. I think he’ll have the chance to be very good, but ND fans thinking he’s going to come in and be like 2018 Dex or 2017 Josh Adams right off the bat are in for a rude awakening.
Tyree didn’t play much in yesterday’s UA game. 5 carries I think.(1yd. TD) flashed his speed once that I saw. You could plainly see the other backs were thicker. He is slight and will have to be used sparingly at first.
Drew Pyne had a real good game. 9-11 for 121 yds, 1TD. 3 possessions 2 TDs 1 FG. He showed lots of poise and command. He seemed to know where to go with the ball on each play. Very unusual for an All-Star game.
We should try to land 2 top 250 backs in every single class. This “one back per year” nonsense really puts us behind the 8 ball. Most guys of that description can always move to another position down the road if needed.
Murtaugh, you had some interesting stuff comparing 2018 and 2019 success rates for running backs. Any chance you’d be willing to post that?
I think it’s very telling that – if I recall your statement correctly – TJJ had the same success rate this year that Dexter Williams had last year. That’s great evidence that the O-line took a step forward – not saying they don’t need to be better, just that they did get better.
Sure, here are the success rates for the backs in 2018:
Dexter 52.5% on 158 carries.
Armstrong 51.3% on 72 carries.
Jahmir 50% on 6 carries.
Jones 45.7% on 83 carries.
Flemister 0% on 1 carry.
I was a big Armstrong supporter in the past, but man oh man was he NOT doing good things this year. I would not at all be shocked if he was moved to the slot in the spring (especially with how many injuries he has racked up while playing RB). I think we can also safely state that Avery is not the answer, and I expect him to be on the bench or saved in case of emergency. I loved what Lenzy did, but I would be hesistent to increase his carries too much — the more the defense expects those jet sweeps, the less effective they may become.
I really think that next year will be a combination of Kyren and Tyree (assuming that they both can pick up blitzes), with Smith and C’Bo filling in to give breaks.
Eric — I know that we all like having Taylor around for drastically better recruiting, but are there any thoughts that losing Denson affected RB success rates this year?
I think what affected the RB position was the RB’s. Not a lot of talent there and much of that’s on Denson.
I concur. Also, I want to believe the injury to Armstrong really threw things for a loop.
I’ll miss TJJ. That guy can pick up a blitzer as well or better than pretty much any RB I’ve ever seen and was a non-trivial part of ND finishing the season tied for 4th in sacks allowed with only 16. I have a tough time imagining TJJ starting on an NFL team, but hopefully he can find a niche as a 3rd down and maybe short-yardage back and have a long career.
Also, he never fumbled. Amazing.
Todd Lyght officially out as CB coach per Sampson. Deja vu all over again following the Denson departure last year.
https://twitter.com/PeteSampson_/status/1212822597035077635?s=20
It’ll be interesting to see how that goes. I’m thinking of Orlovsky on a replay stopping it and circling all the DB’s and their positioning was great at the bowl game. They don’t have the “names” or NFL pedigrees but were, what, 5th in passing yards allowed? And almost never gave up a big play. Not sure if it’s a function of scheme or Lea or what but I hope it will continue. Bracy developed a bit and if Crawford is really coming back, I don’t think the CB’s will be in a ton of trouble, even if they’ll need a youngster or two to hopefully emerge.
It’s true, but it’s not like Iowa State had serious firepower at the WR position. Do we have even one guy that could matchup with Clemson’s WRs
Have to wonder if Jones is just done with college too. Does anyone really think there is much hope he actually gets drafted (let alone catches on with a team)? He’s been solid for us, but a solid but unspectacular back in college doesn’t really do anything for the pros.
Tyree and Williams are going to have to get up to speed and hopefully handle the load alongside Kenzy getting some runs. I’d also have to think that with older backups we seriously have to get Book into the normal running game. Instead of worrying about him getting injured, we need him to also get 5-6 called runs (or like double that option plays where he’s seriously involved in the run game). Otherwise our running game may be seriously weak.
I have to think Jones is an absolute UDFA lock.
Welp, so much for the draw of playing baseball this spring. Kmet declares for NFL.
https://twitter.com/ColeKmet/status/1212828170811887616
That’s a huge blow. Now similar to RB we need a freshmen (Johnson) and a young player with almost no experience (Austin) to carry the load. If there is not an unprecedented (for us anyway) success of a couple of freshmen, our offense could be BAD next year.
I mean, it’s a blow, but I kind of think it’ll be OK, Tremble played so much better as the year goes on, and idk if Wright is just a blocker or underwhelming compared to his recruiting profile or what, but I think he could be at least like Weisher/Smythe level serviceable next season.
And, at least they added a 6’4 WR in Bennett Skowronek that can move the sticks and has made some ridiculous catches in his career (with two 45 reception seasons at Northwestern). Not expecting him to be AA, but he should be that big target who is going to move the sticks reliably.
Plus Lenzy, Austin, Keys, hopefully Johnson gets some snaps. The weapons look pretty good to me, those young guys just have to have the “traits” to get on the field 🙂
https://twitter.com/CarterKarels/status/1212569813194817538
Obviously sucks to lose a talent like Kmet, but I feel like the weapons are there. Having Book as 5th year senior, 3rd year starter ought to be able to run the offense and find the open guys, so I’m still pretty bullish on the potential of the 2020 offense, but at this point it is largely just “potential” and not proven commodities.
That’s a pretty rosy outlook. If Skowronek is a contributor that will help (I hadn’t heard of that before). I would feel more comfortable if those same players were vying for 2 of the 3 WR spots and we were hoping 1 or 2 really stepped up. But as it is, we need those guys not just to step up but for one of those guys to also be a #1 WR, and for 2 more to be real contributors. That’s a pretty high hit rate. And MAYBE we could have gotten away with not having a #1 WR if Kmet basically filled that role, but that’s not happening now. And again Tremble may be a decent player, but it’ll still be a dropoff from Kmet in all likelihood.
AND to top it all off we have no proven runner (so that maybe we could get away with a weaker passing game if we had a top-notch running game).
Yep, a lot has to go right to be sure. I’m bullish on the offense mainly due to Book’s last six games. I don’t think it’s really a definite playoff caliber offense based on points/game or yards/play but a lot depends on moving parts and how development goes, as well as how they use the newer weapons.
I feel like we missed out on Kmet. I totally get him leaving early but for a dude that good we got like 10 games from him in his career. That sucks
For next year, we’re losing our top 3 receivers. That hurts
IIRC, returning receiving production is the most important factor in SP+ for offensive returning production. We have next to none coming back. Yeesh. (Realize Austin provides some hope, but, still, yeesh. Good think they got the Northwestern transfer.)
It is, and it feels like Georgia is a great test case of that this year
nd09hls12 exactly. And its why we basically need two freshmen to be legit starters for us on day 1, maybe even the top guy at their position. Has that ever happened for us? AND we need the younger guys to step up to play much bigger roles.
Tremble will enter 2020 with more career production than Kmet had entering 2019.
Skowronek will enter 2020 with more career production than Finke had entering 2019.
Keys will enter 2020 with more career production than Keys had entering 2019.
Lenzy will enter 2020 with more career production than Lenzy had entering 2019.
Losing Chase Claypool obviously hurts. But to be completely honest, I have higher hopes for our offense in 2020 than the 2019 offense. (Please nobody bring up this comment if we average 15 points per game next season)
That comment seems… optimistic. That basically requires Book to take a leap, which we have no reason to think would happen (particularly if we don’t hire externally for OC and have a Joe Brady/Joe Burrow-like situation). Otherwise, we lose our best RB (by a mile, as per above), best WR (by like 3 miles), and a TE who might be a first-round pick. Next year is exceedingly likely to be a step back offensively at this point.
Our best RB wasn’t spectacular (25th in the country in yards per carry, 75th in rushing yards), our best TE had 500 receiving yards, and our #2, #3, and #4 WRs should all be better than 2019. I’m counting on small steps forward from our returning QB and returning O Line. We had 1 explosive player this year. That could be 3 next year. The more I think about it, the more I’m confident that our offense will be better.
I’m kinda with you. But at the same time, playoff offenses average 42+ points per game. That’s not going to be Notre Dame next year. They’ll need a lot to go right to get back to this year’s level.
Fair, although ND 2018 only scored 42 points in 4 games, and we made the playoff. But yeah, I don’t think we have enough offense to beat Clemson, and I don’t think we’re a playoff team 80% of years if we aren’t undefeated.
And how did that offense do in the playoff? Scored 3 points and about got completely shutdown. Perhaps I should have said a competitive playoff team. Point being though, compare ND 2020 to what we’ve seen from the LSU’s, Clemson’s, Ohio State’s lately and it doesn’t really stack up to that top tier….I don’t think it really would have even with Kmet, to be honest, so I don’t know if much changes, but losing a 1st/2nd round pick on this team is a big blow. I think they should still be able to be pretty good, but still pretty clearly lacking that extra gear the true elite teams have.
Oh I completely agree with you that we don’t have enough to beat a playoff team. I think we’re still a tier below the elites without a doubt.
Cole Kmet going pro. Bummer. The team could have been really special if they had gotten him, Gilman, and Jones back (like Eric, wow, did not expect Tony Jones to ever become an important cog), but I think the ceiling for next year is probably 11-1 now.
Our defense is going to have to be lights out next year. Not sure how good Wisconsin and USC will be next year but does anything think we have a chance against Clemson if our offense won’t be able to put up many points?
I think the Clemson game went from “puncher’s chance” to “nearly guaranteed L if Lawrence is playing” with the losses of Kmet/Gilman/Jones.
Did Gilman announce too?
Yep – a couple days ago.
Clemson is a November game in South Bend. Maybe Lawrence will get bored winning by then and just take an L to see what it feels like.
Yeah, but no one really expected anything different, or should have. Gilman was always going to be done after this season (a big reason they got the Ohio State kid).
For sure – it seemed like there was a 50%+ chance for both Kmet and Jones, and to whiff on all of those has clearly lowered the outlook for next year IMO. I truly thought if they could convince everyone to come back, we could be competitive in and maybe even win a playoff game. Now I think 11-1 is an absolute ceiling, and it’s likely a 2017/2019ish 9-3/10-2 type team again. Not bad, but not The Year either.
At home behind a frenzied crowd rooting for a huge upset? Sure, why not. They were a 2-point conversion away from losing to UNC this season. And UNC wasn’t within a mile of ND in terms of quality.
Generally speaking, I’m not big on giving up on games that are 10 months away.
HOT TAKE: Williams should not have been redshirted. The rest of the group outside of TJJ is decidedly mediocre.