Notre Dame is just like every other program in America in that they have a lot of work to do in order to sort through all of the roster upheaval that’s coming after the NCAA made historic changes to the scholarship situation in 2020 and beyond. It seems actually absurd that the Early Signing Period for the 2021 class is just over a month away and we still don’t know exactly what the future holds for college football roster sizes.
But, we’ll try to figure it out anyway.
Out of Eligibility Following 2020
This was the huge news from the NCAA this summer that a lot of people picked up on but everyone needs to understand what it means for the future. No one is officially burning a year of eligibility during the 2020 season. Nobody.
That’s a good thing in a lot of ways but it also introduces a ton of chaos for 2021 and beyond. It was believed in recruiting circles that teams would be allowed over the 85-man limit (how many over TBD) for both the 2021 and 2022 seasons, although recently there’s speculation the 85-man limit will return immediately after 2021. I’ll have more thoughts on this below.
2021-22 Academic Classes
21 Verbal Commits
17 Sophomores
21 Juniors
20 Seniors
23 Graduates
102 Total Scholarships
Mind you, these are the numbers if everyone currently on the team plus the incoming recruits are on campus for the 2021 football season. This isn’t realistic at all but it’s our starting point for the numbers game.
Since our last update back in April we’ve lost the following Fighting Irish players:
Linebacker Jordan Genmark Heath, offensive lineman John Olmstead, offensive lineman Cole Mabry, wide receiver Isaiah Robertson, running back Mick Assaf, running back Jahmir Smith, defensive end Kofi Wardlow, and defensive tackle Ja’Mion Franklin. We knew there’d be some losses heading into a pandemic and in a lot of these cases they came very late in the process–a few coming during this current season even.
The impending double recruiting class looks like a reality after today’s vote by the NCAA D-1 council. Balancing scholarship numbers in the future is about to get really complicated. https://t.co/D78cTSGqOq
— 18 Stripes (@18stripes) August 19, 2020
In recent months, the Irish have been filling out the 2021 recruiting class by bringing in commitments from offensive guard Pat Coogan, defensive end Jason Onye, corner Ryan Barnes, offensive tackle Joe Alt, corner Chance Tucker, running back Logan Diggs, tight end Mitchell Evans, linebacker Prince Kollie, offensive guard Rocco Spindler, defensive end Will Schweitzer, and wide receiver Deion Colzie left the class and has since come back.
Notre Dame did lose corner Philip Riley who joined Southern Cal’s class, but he just re-joined the Irish class this past Monday. Welcome back! The Irish also just flipped kicker Josh Bryan from Colorado yesterday, as well.
Also, don’t forget that since our last spring article the Irish added now-starting corner Nick McCloud from NC State who joins 2 other grad transfers for 2020 all of whom can return next fall.
List of Eligible 2021 Grad Students
Tier I
QB Ian Book
LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
LT Liam Eichenberg
RG Tommy Kraemer
DE Ade Ogundeji
CB Nick McCloud
LG Aaron Banks
DT Kurt Hinish
DT Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa
RT Robert Hainsey
LB Drew White
PK Jonathan Doerer
DE Daelin Hayes
WR Javon McKinley
WR Ben Skowronek
S Shaun Crawford
OL Josh Lugg
Tier II
WR Avery Davis
TE Brock Wright
LB Isaiah Pryor
OL Dillon Gibbons
Tier III
OL Colin Grunhard
WR Jafar Armstrong
Okay, this is a lot to sort through. We can safely assume the elite draft picks will be moving on so we will scratch off JOK and Eichenberg from returning, both of whom will be safely in the 1st round talk heading into the spring.
We believe the odds are going to be extremely low that any of the other possible 6th-year seniors (the current 5th year guys who could come back due to the new rules) are going to return, including: Book, McKinley, Skowronek, Kraemer, Hayes, Ogundeji, McCloud, and Crawford (the latter who would be coming back for a 7th year and honestly needs to think about settling down and starting a family at this point).
If I’m the coaching staff I’d be making extremely big pitches to Book, Ogundeji, and McCloud about coming back because they are really needed at their positions. Book could truly cement himself as a legend but he’ll be 23 years old in the spring. If they can get just 1 player out of this group that’s a big win although losing all 3 is much more likely.
Now, let’s take a look at the players who would be normal rising 5th-year seniors: Davis, Armstrong, Grunhard, Gibbons, Banks, Lugg, MTA, White, and Pryor. The last 7 I think will all come back which is needed to keep a core of players in the middle of both sides of the ball. I have Grunhard in Tier III based on need but I have a feeling they will ask him back anyway.
I moved Armstrong down to Tier III, as well. He has 46 yards from scrimmage as a redshirt junior and pretty much isn’t playing anymore. I get the sense he will seek playing time somewhere else in 2021.
Avery Davis is a tough one to predict. He’s come on lately but maybe wouldn’t be a starter next year if things shake out a certain way. Then again, he’s likely to be the top returning pass catcher by a mile so maybe they will want him back? It’s possible he may want to leave anyway, we’ll see.
Lastly, we have the true seniors who are now allowed an extra year to play in 2021: Wright, Hainsey, Hinish, and Doerer.
Most are expecting Wright to move on with the talent and depth at tight end and Baby Gronk becoming a freshman All-American. Doerer has already signaled he is returning, although adding what many believe to be the top freshmen kicker in the country could complicate matters. I think being able to bring Hinish and Hainsey back (both Pittsburgh natives) would be so huge. Especially if a new quarterback is playing next year it’ll be so important to bring back Banks and Hainsey if possible.
***SCHOLARSHIP CHART CLICK HERE***
2021 Positional Needs
Done
Quarterback
Wide Receiver
Tight End
Four out of the top 7 recruits in the class come from this group, plus an additional tight end in Mitchell Evans who has the size to grow into a lineman on either side of the ball.
Need Numbers
Offensive Line
Defensive Tackle
Linebacker
Running Back
True, the Irish already have 4 offensive linemen in the 2021 class–including the top 2 current commits–but they are looking at one more body, potentially. Remember, there’s a possibility that as many as 7 offensive linemen could leave. Clearly, it won’t be that many but 4 or 5 leaving is more likely than just Kraemer and Eichenberg heading out of South Bend.
Defensive tackle could use another player but doesn’t look like a priority for 2021, particularly if both Hinish and MTA return. Technically, MTA would still have eligibility for 2022, as well. The Irish are trying to flip Oklahoma commit Kelvin Gilliam who could play on the interior but we’ll see.
After not taking a linebacker in 2020, there’s just 1 commit for 2021. Granted, Prince Kollie has been a do-it-all prep star in northeast Tennessee this year and could have an early impact in South Bend.
The Irish are after another tailback to pair with Logan Diggs which makes sense with the transfer of Jahmir Smith and uncertainty around the future of Jafar Armstrong.
Need Talent
Defensive End
Safety
Corner
I mentioned the importance of convincing Ade Ogundeji to return because if not, it’ll be the second straight year that Notre Dame is replacing both starters at defensive end. Although, Daelin Hayes really wasn’t a new starter this year so next year would be quite different with far less experienced players.
The Irish should add a 5th player to the defensive backfield for 2021 which says a lot about the situation on the back end. Full disclosure, every time we write these scholarship posts it feels like we have looming numbers or talent issues in the secondary. Most of the time it works out!
Clarence Lewis developing pretty quickly at corner this year is a bright spot, although that’s limited by Tariq Bracy going through a slump right now. 2021 recruiting isn’t going to solve many problems in the secondary next fall but you still want to keep throwing numbers at these spots and find some multi-year starters down the road.
Bonus Early Look at the 2021 Depth Chart
Let’s say the following players return for 2021: Banks, Lugg, Gibbons, Davis, Hinish, MTA, Ogundeji, White, Pryor, and Doerer. With currently 21 commits in the recruiting class this would put Notre Dame at 89 scholarships going into next year.
QB: Clark/Pyne/Buchner
RB: Williams/Tyree
WR: Davis/Austin/Lenzy/Keys/Wilkins
TE: Tremble/Mayer
LT: Banks
LG: Correll/Gibbons
C: Patterson
RG: Lugg
RT: Hainsey
DE: Ogundeji
DT: MTA/Ademilola
DT: Hinish/Lacey
DE: Foskey
LB: White/Bauer
LB: Simon/Liufau
LB: Kiser/Moala
CB: Lewis
CB: Bracy
FS: Hamilton
SS: Griffith/Brown
A few things that stick out to me:
1) Ogundeji the Offseason 6-Star Recruit?
You could make the case for several of the current players who absolutely need to come back to help Notre Dame keep winning. For example, if Banks decided to test the NFL waters I’d be very worried. If Hinish doesn’t come back I’m a little concerned.
I do feel like Ogundeji coming back is sneaky important. We’re all high on Foskey but without Ogundeji you’re breaking in a pair of fairly inexperienced ends for a defense that sometimes really struggles getting after the quarterback. With Ade placed on the 2021 depth chart, suddenly that front seven looks super appealing.
2) Patterson Injury is Okay
I’d make the case that sometimes it’s really healthy for an offensive line to lose one of its starters, particularly if that starter is coming back the following year. So it shall be with Patterson after his foot surgery.
Someone is going to get a lot of experience to finish 2020 and that will only make the 2021 line better. Zeke Correll could end up being the starter at center to complete 2020 and then he’s someone who could potentially move to guard as a starter next fall. And with Josh Lugg already gaining starting experience in 2019 and getting solid backup minutes in 2020, we could head into next year feeling like 4 starters are coming back (Banks/Patterson/Lugg/Correll) when losing 3 super experienced veterans felt like a huge blow to the offense.
3) Numbers Game Long-Term
I feel like I’m Steve Kornacki of scholarship numbers just getting way to deep into this whole enterprise. Let’s say the NCAA allows 95 scholarships for 2021 but does follow through with a return to 85 in 2022. I think it’s potentially very difficult to return to 85 just 2 years from now and maybe even in 2023 it’s more difficult than usual.
The issue isn’t the current academic graduates, seniors, or freshmen. The latter in that group all basically got a redshirt but you at least have more time with that group for transfers to work themselves out and you know guys like Mayer, Tyree, and maybe even Botelho won’t be around for 4th or 5th years on campus. Then, you have a few players like Avery Davis who maybe don’t even come back for 2021 but technically speaking could come back for 2021 and 2022. Still, that’s likely not a problem for the numbers as we wouldn’t expect hardly anyone to come back for a 6th year.
It’s the younger recruiting classes that are the issue.
Think about players like C’Bo Flemister, Braden Lenzy, or D.J. Brown from the 2018 class. All 3 took a redshirt as freshmen but now potentially can play through the 2023 season. Likewise, players like Brendan Clark, Kyren Williams, Isaiah Foskey, and Marist Liufau are essentially freshmen eligibility-wise with 4 more years remaining.
We’re expecting maybe 4 more players to join the 2021 recruiting class and then the scholarships would jump up to 93 prior to spring practice. I’m not too worried about next year with the numbers as the Irish would likely end up well below a potential 95-man limit and even a 90-man limit I wouldn’t lose sleep over.
It’s those 2019/20/21 classes full of potentially 63 players with a combined 252 years of eligibility remaining that looms large. If the NCAA goes back to 85 after just one season you’re looking at a situation where your 2022 and 2023 recruiting classes may have to be smaller depending on how your roster shakes out in the coming months and years. Typically, these things do work themselves out but as I see it right now there’s going to be a lot of pressure for the rising juniors, rising sophomores, and incoming freshmen to transfer or seek playing time elsewhere if they aren’t on the 2-deep as Notre Dame will want to trim some of that fat away to allow the recruiting classes to stay healthy and large.
Great analysis! I hadn’t really appreciated the importance of Ogundeji, but now that you say it, that makes total sense.
That said: if the grouping of folks you choose decide to come back, that’s a legitimate title contender-type team, similar to this year’s… minus the quarterback situation. Hopefully they scour the market for somebody who can be a one-and-done, serving hopefully as a bridge to the Buchner era. Jack Coan maybe? Too bad the NDSU QB already declared for the draft.
bad news: https://twitter.com/seniorbowl/status/1329243003576344577
More bad news: https://twitter.com/seniorbowl/status/1329247784428589057
More bad news: https://twitter.com/seniorbowl/status/1329245196081618944?s=20
Awesome analysis, thank you for putting it out there. I would be beyond thrilled if all of “: Banks, Lugg, Gibbons, Davis, Hinish, MTA, Ogundeji, White, Pryor, and Doerer” did return, that really sets the stage for 2021. Banks, Hinish, MTA and Ade being the ones I kinda think will move on.
Is Book going to do anything on the NFL level? Take away his running game (because at the NFL the advantage his legs will bring will will be severely curtailed), is he an NFL QB?
It’s hard to think that a couple of games of him playing at a high level will translate into being an NFL QB. If he finishes the year like he did against Clemson, and plays all next year like that, then ok.
Where would he go in the draft if he left this year? Max of 4th round if he finishes the year on a high note?
If he comes back and plays lights out all year then maybe 1st rd QB.
The more important question though is what is Book thinking? Where does he think he’s going in the draft?
QB is the one position it seems to me where it’s almost always worth coming back because there is so much mental game that the more ready you are for the NFL the better you are unless you are going to be a top-10 pick if your goal is to actually make it to a 2nd contract as a starter (I often wonder how many 1st rounders would have been better off staying and developing their game before getting thrown into it in the NFL – like Kizer e.g.).
Book turns 23 soon. I don’t see why he would come back for a 6th year. Nothing he would do at ND in 2021 is really going to change the player he is. He doesn’t feel like a great NFL prospect, but also the NFL is a couple injuries on a team away from Jake Lutton or Ben DiNucci being a starting QB, so who knows. I’d think Book is appealing enough for a team as a development guy or depth….And that job pays at least $600-700k if he makes a roster next season, and that sure beats playing for $0 next year.
If he comes back, he would hold every ND QB volume record ever… never have to buy a drink at Legends again. Easily worth 600-700k.
That settles it! Send it in to Kelly for Book’s re-re-recruitment!
(On a similar note, I considered sending Kelly in the ticket for the $100 bet from the Michigan game I made last year just to express all the many facets of pain that day caused.)
If I had to make a guess, I would say that Book probably would go undrafted and would get a camp tryout with a club, perhaps landing on a practice squad. I’m not trying to be mean or negative, but I just do not see the NFL attributes.
I think that Wu will go 1st or 2nd round, and Liam will go somewhere in the 1-3 round range. Kraemer, Hainsey, Hayes, and Ade will probably be picked in mid to later rounds. Just my hunches.
If Book is truly getting a draft grade of Undrafted (or maybe even 6th/7th round), I would be pushing hard to sell him on next year essentially being the start to his coaching career. Let him be a major part of the group developing each week’s offensive game plan. Let him be in charge of audibles at the line (like Tommy was when he was QB) rather than looking over to the sideline every time for adjustments. Essentially, tell him he can both play QB and be an essential offensive coach next season. Again, this all rests on their not being any NFL interest in him as a player.
Agreed. I really don’t see the downside to coming back. I’m sure the NFL will pooh pooh him because of his height, so why not come back for a victory lap in a year where you can (probably, hopefully) actually go out and have fun?
Seems like the only way they get him to come back is they get all the non-JOK/Eichenberg guys together in a room and make a “let’s be real, you’re not going to be high draft picks picks this year; stay, win a national championship, and be legends” pitch. Would that work? Probably not. But might be worth a shot.
@Perhaps he’ll be enticed to come back by the chance to win his second Heisman?@
“Look, do you want another year of Barnaby’s or not?”
Book’s too short with a not-strong arm to get drafted, IMO.
But I’m all about convincing him to come back.
Aaaand it’s gone.
Of Genmark Heath, Olmstead, Mabry, Robertson, Assaf, Wardlow, and Franklin. How many transferred vs medically retired? And for the transfers, any idea where yet?
-Genmark Heath transferred to UCLA, per a friend who works at UCLA
-Olmstead entered the portal, don’t remember hearing where he went
-Mabry medically retired, but I remember seeing a rumor he was thinking about transferring and maybe trying to play
-Franklin was going to medically retire (rumored), but just recently entered the portal too
-Assaf was a walk-on, given a scholarship, then decided to graduate and move on to the real world instead
-Robertson entered the portal, don’t remember hearing where he went
-Wardlow just entered the portal in the past month
So about 4 or 5 transferring, 1 or maybe 2 medically retired, 1 moving on to life outside of college.
Olmstead is going to Lafayette, last I saw.
Great update! Thanks for all the info. Lot of players to track.
The guys at II were quite concerned about Patterson’s injury.(Lisfranc) It’s not unusual for players to struggle with this injury for sometime.
On the good news side, Prince Kollie made a huge jump in the 247 rankings moving up to #91 overall. Also, 247 is predicting Caleb Johnson 3star OT will flip from Auburn to ND.
Saw that news about Kollie!
Yeah, heard that from the II podcast, maybe not back until August camp for Patterson, which again, probably helps build depth. Hopefully he can come back 100% though.
They made it sound like Lisfranc is the type of injury that can be bothersome for quite a while. The stresses that a 300lb. football player can put on it not helping.
Friend of the blog Jamie at ISD said no way Ogundeji returns. He just got a Senior Bowl invite tonight so we can likely scratch him off the 2021 ND roster.
Book, Hainsey, Daelin, and Ogundeji all invited to the Senior Bowl tonight.
Well, on the plus side at least you published your article when you did and didn’t have to delete a draft haha
At this point hopefully there’s just one more year of Lea..
So true, I was rushing to get it out today. Seems like whenever I work on this recruiting and roster stuff goes crazy.
Ah, sorry for my comments above, just seeing these. Yeah not great. Next year might be a rebuilding season.
Well, like 90% will depend on QB play. Obviously with a new QB that’s likely not to be fantastic but one never knows. If one of those guys steps up and plays really well, then it won’t be a rebuilding year – esp. with Wisconsin as the top team on our schedule next year. We could still be very good and if we beat all the teams we are “supposed to” then it could easily be another 10+ win year.
Losing starting QB, top two receivers by yardage (likely), both tackles, both defensive ends, a 1st round pick linebacker, a starting safety, and (likely) a starting corner is much higher attrition than normal. And it gets worse if on top of all that Banks goes pro too.
In terms of replacements, we’d probably be OK on the WR front (if Austin stays healthy, pls pls), and Foskey is certainly ready to be full-time starting DE, but the rest is fairly concerning/seemingly non-playoff-caliber if we don’t go the grad transfer route and somehow get another Skowronek/McCloud-y type combo, except for quarterback and defensive end (and probably cornerback again).
That said, it’s ok to have a down year, especially if we make the playoff this year. It’s possible that the schedule is so soft that the record doesn’t make it look like a big step back, which would be great for national perception purposes, but next year might have some scary games against bad teams in ways that this year thankfully really hasn’t.
I think it was O’Malley on II who laid it out that recently opened my eyes. On defense the starters on the line are: SR, SR, SR, SR.
At LB it’s SR, SR, Shayne Simon.
Secondary is: SR, 6th year SR, Kyle Hamilton, Bracy/Lewis
It’s an incredibly experienced defense right now. Add that to the o-line with like a combined million starts between them (give or take) and that’s a big time source of strength that will be all but out the window for next year.
Yea if by “rebuilding” you just mean that we will have a lot of new guys to break in and the quality of the team will go down, then absolutely that will be true.
But I was thinking “rebuilding” usually includes that it’ll go down a lot, however exactly that would be defined, and that a sign of this would be one’s record. All teams who are good or even elite might stay on that level even if they vary in a certain range within that level.
And I was just thinking that:
(1) Lea has been great so I trust while our D will slip, if we really have the talent that we should have that maybe we will find a way to keep a quality D on the field
(2) it seems like at other positions we may have more talent in the wings – like the WRs (though the veterans are playing well right now) and OL, while we’d always prefer the experienced known commodity, we should be throwing in some talented guys who will get the job done
(3) that would leave QB to be the biggest factor – which it usually is most years anyway. If a young QB could come in and play well, that would be the biggest factor for whether we would really be “re-building” or not.
And so while we obviously won’t be as good next year, I think we can stay at our level of right below elite (though perhaps if Book continues to play the way he has we are actually elite) who can beat the elite on any given night and beat the teams who are worse than us on our schedule. Which off the cuff might leave us with 10+ wins again next year (if we play a full schedule as is).
Yeah, I think it could be more of a “reload” than a full on 2020 LSU drop off but we’ll see. Assuming Lea is back is a risky take that I can jump to just yet, so let’s hope..
2021 schedule looks pretty easy, Wisconsin (Soldier Field) is probably the toughest game. Home for UNC and USC, @FSU are the big tests, the ACC schedule is pretty soft again (no Clemson, Miami). Interestingly enough Cincinnati is coming to ND stadium too.
2022 and 2023 are wicked tough schedules, at least in quality with both Ohio State and Clemson, but other than that not too bad for 10/12 of the schedule. Those two are enough to make up for it though.
I have no idea what Cincinnati’s roster management situation is, but they might be one of the top 3 teams we play next year. Certainly the toughest home game.
’22 is looking pretty weak outside of Ohio State and Clemson (a max of 9 P5 games with one more spot to fill), although that’s very “other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln” of me, or anyone, to say.
Ha, for sure. Good point on Cincy too. Not looking forward to Sam Howell as a junior either next season. Heck, not even looking forward to seeing him next week as a sophomore.
(Plus a USC team in the 2nd year of Urban Meyer???)
WOW, we play clemson AND ohio state – in the same season, TWO YEARS IN A ROW?????????????
What was the thinking on that one?
So they were invited, does this imply that they have accepted? I would think so but perhaps not?
Heavily, heavily implied. A senior bowl invite for these guys on this level is a huge stepping stone.
Book also tweeted a confirmation “Extremely excited to accept the @seniorbowl invitation. Thank you @JimNagy_SB and the Senior Bowl team for the invite. See you in Mobile! ” so if there was even any lingering doubt, that door has been locked, bolted and bricked over.
I saw some random fans holding out hope Book goes to the Senior Bowl then comes back to Notre Dame anyways, but that’s just laughable. The slogan isn’t “a path to a 6th year of college starts at the Senior Bowl”, it’s about the NFL draft at that point. Also by then I’m sure those guys sign with agencies to prep for all the important off-season workouts anyways, so it’s just finished.
Maybe he’s been invited as an assistant coach, and he’s going to use it as his final step toward coming back to ND for a 6th year as a Player-Coach.
Yup, I’m pretty sure to be invited you have to accept sort of deal. So they’re all not coming back.