Notre Dame is just like every other program in America in that they have a lot of work to do in order to sort through all of the roster upheaval that’s coming after the NCAA made historic changes to the scholarship situation in 2020 and beyond. It seems actually absurd that the Early Signing Period for the 2021 class is just over a month away and we still don’t know exactly what the future holds for college football roster sizes.

But, we’ll try to figure it out anyway.

Out of Eligibility Following 2020

This was the huge news from the NCAA this summer that a lot of people picked up on but everyone needs to understand what it means for the future. No one is officially burning a year of eligibility during the 2020 season. Nobody.

That’s a good thing in a lot of ways but it also introduces a ton of chaos for 2021 and beyond. It was believed in recruiting circles that teams would be allowed over the 85-man limit (how many over TBD) for both the 2021 and 2022 seasons, although recently there’s speculation the 85-man limit will return immediately after 2021. I’ll have more thoughts on this below.

2021-22 Academic Classes

21 Verbal Commits
17 Sophomores
21 Juniors
20 Seniors
23 Graduates
102 Total Scholarships

Mind you, these are the numbers if everyone currently on the team plus the incoming recruits are on campus for the 2021 football season. This isn’t realistic at all but it’s our starting point for the numbers game.

Since our last update back in April we’ve lost the following Fighting Irish players:

Linebacker Jordan Genmark Heath, offensive lineman John Olmstead, offensive lineman Cole Mabry, wide receiver Isaiah Robertson, running back Mick Assaf, running back Jahmir Smith, defensive end Kofi Wardlow, and defensive tackle Ja’Mion Franklin. We knew there’d be some losses heading into a pandemic and in a lot of these cases they came very late in the process–a few coming during this current season even.

In recent months, the Irish have been filling out the 2021 recruiting class by bringing in commitments from offensive guard Pat Coogan, defensive end Jason Onye, corner Ryan Barnes, offensive tackle Joe Alt, corner Chance Tucker, running back Logan Diggs, tight end Mitchell Evans, linebacker Prince Kollie, offensive guard Rocco Spindler, defensive end Will Schweitzer, and wide receiver Deion Colzie left the class and has since come back.

Notre Dame did lose corner Philip Riley who joined Southern Cal’s class, but he just re-joined the Irish class this past Monday. Welcome back! The Irish also just flipped kicker Josh Bryan from Colorado yesterday, as well.

Also, don’t forget that since our last spring article the Irish added now-starting corner Nick McCloud from NC State who joins 2 other grad transfers for 2020 all of whom can return next fall.

List of Eligible 2021 Grad Students

Tier I

QB Ian Book
LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
LT Liam Eichenberg
RG Tommy Kraemer
DE Ade Ogundeji
CB Nick McCloud
LG Aaron Banks
DT Kurt Hinish
DT Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa
RT Robert Hainsey
LB Drew White
PK Jonathan Doerer
DE Daelin Hayes
WR Javon McKinley
WR Ben Skowronek
S Shaun Crawford
OL Josh Lugg

Tier II

WR Avery Davis
TE Brock Wright
LB Isaiah Pryor
OL Dillon Gibbons

Tier III

OL Colin Grunhard
WR Jafar Armstrong

Okay, this is a lot to sort through. We can safely assume the elite draft picks will be moving on so we will scratch off JOK and Eichenberg from returning, both of whom will be safely in the 1st round talk heading into the spring.

We believe the odds are going to be extremely low that any of the other possible 6th-year seniors (the current 5th year guys who could come back due to the new rules) are going to return, including: Book, McKinley, Skowronek, Kraemer, Hayes, Ogundeji, McCloud, and Crawford (the latter who would be coming back for a 7th year and honestly needs to think about settling down and starting a family at this point).

If I’m the coaching staff I’d be making extremely big pitches to Book, Ogundeji, and McCloud about coming back because they are really needed at their positions. Book could truly cement himself as a legend but he’ll be 23 years old in the spring. If they can get just 1 player out of this group that’s a big win although losing all 3 is much more likely.

Now, let’s take a look at the players who would be normal rising 5th-year seniors: Davis, Armstrong, Grunhard, Gibbons, Banks, Lugg, MTA, White, and Pryor. The last 7 I think will all come back which is needed to keep a core of players in the middle of both sides of the ball. I have Grunhard in Tier III based on need but I have a feeling they will ask him back anyway.

I moved Armstrong down to Tier III, as well. He has 46 yards from scrimmage as a redshirt junior and pretty much isn’t playing anymore. I get the sense he will seek playing time somewhere else in 2021.

Avery Davis is a tough one to predict. He’s come on lately but maybe wouldn’t be a starter next year if things shake out a certain way. Then again, he’s likely to be the top returning pass catcher by a mile so maybe they will want him back? It’s possible he may want to leave anyway, we’ll see.

Lastly, we have the true seniors who are now allowed an extra year to play in 2021: Wright, Hainsey, Hinish, and Doerer.

Most are expecting Wright to move on with the talent and depth at tight end and Baby Gronk becoming a freshman All-American. Doerer has already signaled he is returning, although adding what many believe to be the top freshmen kicker in the country could complicate matters. I think being able to bring Hinish and Hainsey back (both Pittsburgh natives) would be so huge. Especially if a new quarterback is playing next year it’ll be so important to bring back Banks and Hainsey if possible.

***SCHOLARSHIP CHART CLICK HERE***

2021 Positional Needs

Done

Quarterback
Wide Receiver
Tight End

Four out of the top 7 recruits in the class come from this group, plus an additional tight end in Mitchell Evans who has the size to grow into a lineman on either side of the ball.

Need Numbers

Offensive Line
Defensive Tackle
Linebacker
Running Back

True, the Irish already have 4 offensive linemen in the 2021 class–including the top 2 current commits–but they are looking at one more body, potentially. Remember, there’s a possibility that as many as 7 offensive linemen could leave. Clearly, it won’t be that many but 4 or 5 leaving is more likely than just Kraemer and Eichenberg heading out of South Bend.

Defensive tackle could use another player but doesn’t look like a priority for 2021, particularly if both Hinish and MTA return. Technically, MTA would still have eligibility for 2022, as well. The Irish are trying to flip Oklahoma commit Kelvin Gilliam who could play on the interior but we’ll see.

After not taking a linebacker in 2020, there’s just 1 commit for 2021. Granted, Prince Kollie has been a do-it-all prep star in northeast Tennessee this year and could have an early impact in South Bend.

The Irish are after another tailback to pair with Logan Diggs which makes sense with the transfer of Jahmir Smith and uncertainty around the future of Jafar Armstrong.

Need Talent

Defensive End
Safety
Corner

I mentioned the importance of convincing Ade Ogundeji to return because if not, it’ll be the second straight year that Notre Dame is replacing both starters at defensive end. Although, Daelin Hayes really wasn’t a new starter this year so next year would be quite different with far less experienced players.

The Irish should add a 5th player to the defensive backfield for 2021 which says a lot about the situation on the back end. Full disclosure, every time we write these scholarship posts it feels like we have looming numbers or talent issues in the secondary. Most of the time it works out!

Clarence Lewis developing pretty quickly at corner this year is a bright spot, although that’s limited by Tariq Bracy going through a slump right now. 2021 recruiting isn’t going to solve many problems in the secondary next fall but you still want to keep throwing numbers at these spots and find some multi-year starters down the road.

Bonus Early Look at the 2021 Depth Chart

Let’s say the following players return for 2021: Banks, Lugg, Gibbons, Davis, Hinish, MTA, Ogundeji, White, Pryor, and Doerer. With currently 21 commits in the recruiting class this would put Notre Dame at 89 scholarships going into next year.

QB: Clark/Pyne/Buchner
RB: Williams/Tyree
WR: Davis/Austin/Lenzy/Keys/Wilkins
TE: Tremble/Mayer
LT: Banks
LG: Correll/Gibbons
C: Patterson
RG: Lugg
RT: Hainsey

DE: Ogundeji
DT: MTA/Ademilola
DT: Hinish/Lacey
DE: Foskey
LB: White/Bauer
LB: Simon/Liufau
LB: Kiser/Moala
CB: Lewis
CB: Bracy
FS: Hamilton
SS: Griffith/Brown

A few things that stick out to me:

1) Ogundeji the Offseason 6-Star Recruit?

You could make the case for several of the current players who absolutely need to come back to help Notre Dame keep winning. For example, if Banks decided to test the NFL waters I’d be very worried. If Hinish doesn’t come back I’m a little concerned.

I do feel like Ogundeji coming back is sneaky important. We’re all high on Foskey but without Ogundeji you’re breaking in a pair of fairly inexperienced ends for a defense that sometimes really struggles getting after the quarterback. With Ade placed on the 2021 depth chart, suddenly that front seven looks super appealing.

2) Patterson Injury is Okay

I’d make the case that sometimes it’s really healthy for an offensive line to lose one of its starters, particularly if that starter is coming back the following year. So it shall be with Patterson after his foot surgery.

Someone is going to get a lot of experience to finish 2020 and that will only make the 2021 line better. Zeke Correll could end up being the starter at center to complete 2020 and then he’s someone who could potentially move to guard as a starter next fall. And with Josh Lugg already gaining starting experience in 2019 and getting solid backup minutes in 2020, we could head into next year feeling like 4 starters are coming back (Banks/Patterson/Lugg/Correll) when losing 3 super experienced veterans felt like a huge blow to the offense.

3) Numbers Game Long-Term

I feel like I’m Steve Kornacki of scholarship numbers just getting way to deep into this whole enterprise. Let’s say the NCAA allows 95 scholarships for 2021 but does follow through with a return to 85 in 2022. I think it’s potentially very difficult to return to 85 just 2 years from now and maybe even in 2023 it’s more difficult than usual.

The issue isn’t the current academic graduates, seniors, or freshmen. The latter in that group all basically got a redshirt but you at least have more time with that group for transfers to work themselves out and you know guys like Mayer, Tyree, and maybe even Botelho won’t be around for 4th or 5th years on campus. Then, you have a few players like Avery Davis who maybe don’t even come back for 2021 but technically speaking could come back for 2021 and 2022. Still, that’s likely not a problem for the numbers as we wouldn’t expect hardly anyone to come back for a 6th year.

It’s the younger recruiting classes that are the issue.

Think about players like C’Bo Flemister, Braden Lenzy, or D.J. Brown from the 2018 class. All 3 took a redshirt as freshmen but now potentially can play through the 2023 season. Likewise, players like Brendan Clark, Kyren Williams, Isaiah Foskey, and Marist Liufau are essentially freshmen eligibility-wise with 4 more years remaining.

We’re expecting maybe 4 more players to join the 2021 recruiting class and then the scholarships would jump up to 93 prior to spring practice. I’m not too worried about next year with the numbers as the Irish would likely end up well below a potential 95-man limit and even a 90-man limit I wouldn’t lose sleep over.

It’s those 2019/20/21 classes full of potentially 63 players with a combined 252 years of eligibility remaining that looms large. If the NCAA goes back to 85 after just one season you’re looking at a situation where your 2022 and 2023 recruiting classes may have to be smaller depending on how your roster shakes out in the coming months and years. Typically, these things do work themselves out but as I see it right now there’s going to be a lot of pressure for the rising juniors, rising sophomores, and incoming freshmen to transfer or seek playing time elsewhere if they aren’t on the 2-deep as Notre Dame will want to trim some of that fat away to allow the recruiting classes to stay healthy and large.