This is the second installment of the CFB Playoff Team rankings, you can find the first one right here. Here’s a reminder of the criteria I’m using for these rankings:
- Overall ranking is an average of SP+, FEI, and ESPN FPI from that respective season.
- Same goes for the offense and defense ranking.
- Margin of victory and ranked teams defeated before bowl season act as tiebreakers.
- The final CFB Playoff rankings are used to avoid bowl season fluky-ness.
- At the end of the day, these are totally arbitrary and 100% my own opinion.
Without further adieu, here are teams 16-9.
#16. 2017 Clemson
Overall Ranking: 4.3
Offense Rank: 18.3
Defense Rank: 2
Margin of Victory: 22.6 points
Ranked Teams Defeated: Four (#7 Auburn, #10 Miami, #22 Virginia Tech, #24 NC State)
It really speaks to what Dabo Swinney has built at Clemson that even his “worst” playoff team still ranks in the top 16. Much like 2016 Ohio State, the Tigers smothered teams with its defense en route to an impressive resume despite an offense that was not elite. Unfortunately, Kelly Bryant was then exposed by Nick Saban and Co. in the Sugar Bowl which eventually gave way to the Trevor Lawrence Era.
It should be noted that this was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Tigers and they still managed to go 12-2 against a difficult schedule. As a side note, this is the lowest ranked number one seed in these rankings.
#15. 2016 Washington
Overall Ranking: 3.3
Offense Rank: 8
Defense Rank: 5.7
Margin of Victory: 27.3 points
Ranked Teams Defeated: Three (#10 Colorado, #18 Stanford, #19 Utah)
In my opinion, this is the most underrated team to make the playoff. Washington in 2016 was top ten in offense and defense by every advanced measure, the first team on this list to achieve that distinction. The Huskies hammered every almost team they played in the regular season with the exception of a fluky loss against a peaking USC team.
Washington got the worst possible match-up against one of Saban’s best teams ever and managed to stay competitive. We’ll be talking about that team in the next installment, but just take a moment to appreciate Chris Petersen’s best team.
#14. 2019 Clemson
Overall Ranking: 3.3
Offense Rank: 5
Defense Rank: 2
Margin of Victory: 35.9 points
Ranked Teams Defeated: One (#24 Virginia)
The most recent Clemson team wins the tiebreaker over 2016 Washington by virtue of having an obscene regular season margin of victory, being top-five on both sides of the ball and being the first team on this list to win their playoff game. That more than makes up for only beating one ranked team in the regular season and struggling in the first half of the year.
This might seem like a controversially low rank for a team that bludgeoned opponents by over five touchdowns in the regular season, but the early struggles paired with a putrid ACC schedule pushed these Tigers further down the list. Just one win over a barely ranked UVA team isn’t good enough to crack the top ten.
#13. 2014 Oregon
Overall Ranking: 3
Offense Rank: 1
Defense Rank: 35.3
Margin of Victory: 23.8 points
Ranked Teams Defeated: Four (#8 Michigan State, #10 Arizona, #14 UCLA, #22 Utah)
2014 Oregon was a better version of the Lincoln Riley playoff teams at Oklahoma. Despite an average defense, the Ducks rank this high mostly due to their powerful offense and performance against the best of their schedule. Oregon obliterated ranked teams by an average score of 48-20 and that’s even omitting their legendary performance against Florida State in the Rose Bowl.
The Ducks ultimately ran out of gas (and wide receivers) against another peaking team in the title game. However, nobody should forget this team for what it did to Florida State and by extension, what it did for the country in that game.
#12. 2015 Clemson
Overall Ranking: 2.7
Offense Rank: 10.7
Defense Rank: 6.3
Margin of Victory: 18.3 points
Ranked Teams Defeated: Three (#8 Notre Dame, #9 Florida State, #10 North Carolina)
These Tigers set the standard for the established powerhouse that Clemson is today. Dabo’s first Clemson playoff squad was well-balanced, well-coached and punched above its weight against more talented teams (ND, FSU and Alabama). They weren’t quite as dominant as more recent versions (margin of victory was ONLY 18.3 points per game) but more than held their own against the five top-10 teams they played.
As I mentioned in the last installment, 2015 Oklahoma was a great team that the Tigers beat by 20 in the Orange Bowl. Clemson then almost became the first team ever to beat Nick Saban in a title game, falling just short in the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, they put the nation on notice after enduring a decade of “Clemsoning” jokes. They wouldn’t have to wait long to put those jokes on ice forever.
#11. 2014 Ohio State
Overall Ranking: 2.7
Offense Rank: 3
Defense Rank: 18
Margin of Victory: 24 points
Ranked Teams Defeated: Two (#8 Michigan State and #18 Wisconsin)
Our first national champion on this list is quite a unique case. We all know the story of Cardale Jones, but the real story here is how the Buckeyes caught fire en route to winning the national title. The Buckeyes were left for dead after losing to Virginia Tech at home in September only to go undefeated the rest of the way. They required a gift from the playoff committee which vaulted them over Baylor and TCU, two teams that were arguably more deserving than the Bucks.
But once they sneaked into the playoff as the four-seed, they took full advantage of the stage offered to them. Ohio State exorcised some SEC demons against a team ranked higher than them on this list before stomping Oregon in the title game. It was a fun and improbable run for a team that only had two top-20 wins before the playoff.
#10. 2016 Clemson
Overall Ranking: 2.7
Offense Rank: 4
Defense Rank: 7.7
Margin of Victory: 21.8 points
Ranked Teams Defeated: Four (#11 Florida State, #13 Louisville, #14 Auburn, #22 Virginia Tech)
Another champion shows up on the list. Not only was this the first Clemson team to win the playoff, it was also the first to beat Nick Saban with a national title on the line. It was basically a better version of the 2015 team that almost beat Alabama while this one did it against a more difficult schedule. Per SP+, Clemson was the champion of the best conference in college football in 2016. Oh, how the times have changed for the ACC.
The Tigers were uneven to start the year and lost a head-scratcher to Pitt at home, but showed their veteran mettle by strangling Ohio State in the semifinal. Deshaun Watson then finished off Alabama in a tremendous national championship game to give Dabo his first title. But as we will see, there is a Clemson team even better than this one in the playoff era.
#9. 2014 Alabama
Overall Ranking: 2.3
Offense Rank: 5.3
Defense Rank: 4.7
Margin of Victory: 20.5 points
Ranked Teams Defeated: Four (#7 Mississippi State, #16 Missouri, #19 Auburn, #23 LSU)
The first of five Alabama teams shows up as we crack the top-10. While being the lowest-rated Alabama team to make the playoff under Nick Saban, this was a typically outstanding team. The Tide lost to Ole Miss and the Landsharks before rolling through the rest of the SEC.
Lane Kiffin brought Alabama’s offense into the 21st century, a change that bore massive consequences which resonate to this day. As we know, they were ambushed by Ohio State and became the first number one seed to lose in the playoff. Yet the Tide would be back in the playoff every year until this past season.
Let me know what you think about these rankings in the playoff and stay tuned for the final eight teams coming soon.
Fun list so far! My only quibble is 2014 OSU at #11. Apparently the advanced metrics suggest otherwise, but that team seemed like top 10 for sure. What they did to wiscy, bama and oregon in the last three games was remarkable. Didn’t Zeke go off for 200+ in all three? Insane. I guess the bama score was close but watching that game it was clear OSU was better-and w/ a 3rd string QB, no less. Oh and they were deserving of the spot. In 2014 I was upset about it but in hindsight they kicked so much ass that it was hard to deny them the title.
Glad you’re enjoying it so far! I think 2014 Ohio State would undoubtedly be in the top-10 if they had kept playing for another month, but the advanced stats still count the early season struggles. Their defense was also merely good rather than great which dragged their rating down a bit. But no question they had an all-time great offense that year.
I assume the Overall Ranking/Offense Rank/Defense Rank are all stuck in their respective years, rather than weighted/considered across the entire CFB Playoff lifespan? In other words, how did the #1 offense in 2016 stack up to the #1 offense in 2014? If not putting the entire 6 years of all 1xx CFB “eligible” teams, what would the 24 playoff teams look like ranked against each other, taking out the consideration of the year in which they played?
That is correct, these rankings are all from their respective year. There’s really no great way to compare them to each other given the different metrics for all of these advanced stats. SP+ is probably the best metric if you want to compare across different years. I think a true stats nerd could make a much better list, but I also think this one is close enough to reality given what we have.