These are the top eight teams to make the playoff using the criteria I invented. If you missed the first two installment of this series, you can find 24-17 here and 16-9 here. Here is a quick reminder of the criteria set out for ranking these teams:
- Overall ranking is an average of SP+, FEI, and ESPN FPI from that respective season.
- Same goes for the offense and defense ranking.
- Margin of victory and ranked teams defeated before bowl season act as tiebreakers.
- The final CFB Playoff rankings are used to avoid bowl season fluky-ness.
- At the end of the day, these are totally arbitrary and 100% my own opinion.
#8. 2017 Georgia
Overall Ranking: 2.3
Offense Rank: 6
Defense Rank: 6.3
Margin of Victory: 21.7 points
Ranked Teams Defeated: Three (#7 Auburn, #14 Notre Dame, #23 Mississippi State)
These Bulldogs win the tiebreaker over 2014 Alabama by virtue of a larger margin of victory in the regular season and winning a playoff game. Notre Dame fans should be well-acquainted with this team, which scraped by the Irish by one point in the infamous September game in South Bend.
The Dawgs then pummeled the rest of their schedule with the exception of a blowout loss at Auburn. With a playoff berth on the line in Atlanta, Georgia returned the favor and then beat Oklahoma in an all-time great Rose Bowl. In the title game, they infamously choked against Alabama and helped birth the Tua legend (more on that later).
#7. 2019 LSU
Overall Ranking: 2.3
Offense Rank: 1
Defense Rank: 14.7
Margin of Victory: 26.2 points
Ranked Teams Defeated: Four (#5 Georgia, #9 Florida, #12 Auburn, #13 Alabama)
Controversial ranking! The 2019 Tigers from Baton Rouge boasted perhaps the greatest offense in history and one of the most impressive title campaigns of the last 20 years. Their ranking also goes to show just how much we are splitting hairs when we get to this level, all of these teams are tremendous and there isn’t much room between them.
The Tigers’ ranking was dragged down by a mid-season defensive lull, having given up nearly 27 points per game from week two to week ten. However much in the same mold as 2014 Ohio State, LSU hit their peak beginning in the conference championship game when they smashed Georgia. They then walked over Oklahoma and Clemson to win the title. Similar to 2014 Ohio State, I think this team would be in the top three if they had played football for another month.
#6. 2018 Clemson
Overall Ranking: 2
Offense Rank: 5.3
Defense Rank: 2
Margin of Victory: 35.9 points
Ranked Teams Defeated: One (#20 Syracuse)
This is another controversial selection considering the best Clemson team of the playoff era won its three postseason games by an average of 30 points per game. There are a couple of reasons why this team isn’t higher, one being the typically pathetic ACC schedule that didn’t allow the Tigers to flex their muscles until the playoff. The second was Clemson’s version of the Ian Book Bump, call it the Lawrence Lift after Clemson’s offense toiled under Kelly Bryant for a few games.
I think this team likely ranks in the top-three of this list if Trevor Lawrence plays every game and they play a tougher schedule (advanced stats reward dominance over good teams). However, it is worth mentioning that the Clemson-Alabama game was not a total manhandling in the eyes of the advanced stats, which is why the Tigers failed to leapfrog a truly excellent Bama team in the final rankings. Still, it was pretty surreal and satisfying to watch.
#5. 2015 Alabama
Overall Ranking: 1.3
Offense Rank: 21
Defense Rank: 1
Margin of Victory: 19.7 points
Ranked Teams Defeated: Three (#19 Florida, #20 LSU, #23 Tennessee)
Fair warning: there is going to be a run on Alabama teams coming up. The first of these was the 2015-2016 national champs which held off Clemson in the national title game. Despite not beating a top-15 opponent, the Tide’s schedule was incredibly solid in featuring 11 teams that finished with winning records. This is the biggest reason why they rank ahead of Clemson on this list despite having an inferior regular season point differential.
Alabama had the unanimous #1 defense in 2015 from all three advanced stats sites that I used which also boosted their ranking. Their offense was reliably solid with Jake Coker at the controls, although he mostly handed off to Derrick Henry for most of the season. It also helped their ranking that they dismantled poor Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl before surviving pesky Clemson.
#4. 2017 Alabama
Overall Ranking: 1.3
Offense Rank: 9
Defense Rank: 1.7
Margin of Victory: 27.6 points
Ranked Teams Defeated: Two (#17 LSU, #23 Mississippi State)
Maybe the most controversial selection to the playoff manages to crack the top-five on this list. The Tide ran through a pretty weak schedule before losing decisively to Auburn in their final regular season game. Because this loss cost Alabama a spot in the SEC title game, they had to sweat out the selection show before finding out they made it over Ohio State.
Despite an offense hampered by Jalen Hurts’ limitations, the Tide strangled Clemson’s weakest team on this list in the Sugar Bowl before taking on Georgia in the title game. Hurts was benched by Tua, and the rest is history.
#3. 2018 Alabama
Overall Ranking: 1.3
Offense Rank: 2
Defense Rank: 4.3
Margin of Victory: 35.1 points
Ranked Teams Defeated: Four (#5 Georgia, #11 LSU, #18 Mississippi State #19 Texas A&M)
This team already feels forgotten despite a historically great season that ended in disaster. This was shaping up to be Nick Saban’s best team at Alabama and certainly his best offense. The Tide destroyed everyone in the regular season, but a marquee match-up against a great Georgia team in the SEC title game exposed some cracks in a previously impenetrable defense. Those cracks were widened by Kyler Murray in the Orange Bowl before the dam burst against Clemson in epic fashion.
Although they didn’t win the national title, 2018 Alabama would’ve been strong contenders to win it in just about every other season. They pulled off a rare feat, becoming one of only two playoff teams on this list to rank in the top-5 in both offense and defense. Tua Tagovailoa broke the NCAA pass efficiency record in leading a tremendous offense. They simply broke down at the worst possible moment.
#2. 2016 Alabama
Overall Ranking: 1
Offense Rank: 17.7
Defense Rank: 1
Margin of Victory: 38.7 points
Ranked Teams Defeated: Five (#9 USC, #14 Auburn, #17 Florida, #20 LSU, #21 Tennessee)
It was extremely difficult to choose between the last two teams on this list, but 2016 Alabama comes up just a little short. Nonetheless, the Crimson Tide were historically excellent and boast the best regular season margin of victory of any team on this list. They humiliated five ranked teams en route to the number one seed in the playoff despite sporting a freshman quarterback of an offense that was good, but not great. On the other hand, Bama’s defense was historically elite in holding teams to just 11 points per game in the regular season.
However, much like the 2018 version of Alabama had diminishing returns on defense, the 2016 team had the opposite problem. The Tide’s offense put up just 17 points and 326 yards against Washington in the Peach Bowl before failing to put Clemson away in the title game. Alabama was likely one stop away from being the undisputed best team on this list, but it was not meant to be.
#1. 2019 Ohio State
Overall Ranking: 1
Offense Rank: 3
Defense Rank: 2.6
Margin of Victory: 36.2 points
Ranked Teams Defeated: Five (#8 Wisconsin twice, #10 Penn State, #14 Michigan, #21 Cincinnati)
The most controversial ranking of them all! These Buckeyes didn’t win the national title or a playoff game, but they are the top team on this list. I seriously considered making this a 1A/1B situation, but here are the reasons why I decided to give this team the nod over 2016 Alabama:
- Despite 2016 Bama’s historic dominance on defense, this Ohio State team pulled off having a consensus top-three offense and defense. That kind of balance puts this team among the best of all-time, much less during just the playoff era.
- Ohio State’s wins are slightly more impressive than Alabama’s despite both beating five teams ranked in the final CFP Playoff poll. Bama’s best win came against a strong USC team, although that was before Sam Darnold took over at quarterback. Meanwhile, Ohio State beat four top-15 opponents, two 11-win G5 teams, and the MAC champion by 71 points.
- Last year, the Buckeyes played nine teams that finished with a winning record and beat them by an average score of 45-13. They were only seriously challenged by 11-2 Penn State and Wisconsin during the B1G championship before the playoff loss against Clemson.
This was an incredible team that almost nobody saw coming. Despite a rookie coach, Ohio State laid waste to everyone and was a couple of breaks away from doing to the Tigers what they did to everyone else. Their collapse robbed us of a match-up between Joe Burrow and the #7 team on this list. Oh, what could’ve been.
So there you have it! The top three teams on this list didn’t win the national title, and the number one team didn’t didn’t even win a playoff game! There will be a summary of this list coming up, along with a few of the best of the rest for teams that barely missed out on the playoff. Let me know what you think of the full list in the comments.
I liked your other 2 ranking lists but have disagreements with almost all the picks. One, to be the best team, you have to win the NZC and not just dominate for 95% of the time. I think 2019 LU and 2018 Clemson are the 2 best teams. and then maybe some of the Bama teams except for when they lost to Auburn.
I agree with you in the vein that I was expecting 2019 LSU to be #1 because their offense was by far the strongest and most revolutionary group of any of these, and they just laid waste to anyone who stood in their way. The magic of the playcalling, Joe Burrow and the skilled players just felt like they were on a completely different level than any college team in a long time.
I do enjoy a spicy debate and rankings though and this certainly qualifies!
I think you bring up good points, and if there was a list of most impressive title campaigns in the playoff era then 2019 LSU and 2018 Clemson would probably be 1A and 1B. But part of this was trying to figure out how to identify true playoff contenders by just looking at their regular season resumes and both those teams had slippages before the playoff that affected their rankings.
And like I said in the article, this tier is so close to each other that we’re really splitting hairs when it comes to ranking these teams. There is not much room between 2019 Ohio State and 2019 LSU, as opposed to comparing a team like 2015 Michigan State to 2018 Clemson. The top half of these teams are all awesome.
This was an interesting read. I bet it was tough to cull this down to just 24 teams, though. Really curious to see who you had in the 32-25 slots.