Don’t you just love it when the entire perception of your favorite team is shattered within the span of a week? Right after the Texas A&M victory, I began work on an article title titled “Why You Should Trust Notre Dame this Season” where I would gush about how Marcus Freeman has transformed this program into a bonafide title contender. I decided to wait until after the Northern Illinois game because I wanted to include more awesome defensive stats since we would surely win by a lot. I took this screenshot as proof that I legitimately thought ND could be a championship winning team before trashing that stillborn piece.

So here we are again. Another loss to a VASTLY inferior opponent except this time, I’m not sure Freeman will come back from this. I’m not even sure if he deserves to have a chance to atone for the absolute travesty we watched last Saturday. The NIU loss is a before and after event. Before, Notre Dame had just won its biggest road game in 12 years. An undefeated regular season and a home playoff game was right there for the taking. And now, Notre Dame is once again a national laughingstock. National media personalities are apologizing for thinking this team was different and we as fans are as angry as we’ve ever been in the post-Holtz Era.

So what’s our excuse this time? Why does this keep happening? Is this because we aren’t talented enough? Is it coaching? A curse? Or something entirely different? We all want answers, but all you’re going to get from me right now is an scathing stream of consciousness. Buckle up.

Talent

Eric wrote this in his excellent post-game autopsy report:

I cannot stand how little access is given to this program in the spring and fall and it was incredibly irrational to believe that this was the most talented Notre Dame in 30 years. There just wasn’t enough substance behind talk like that and far from enough evidence throughout the off-season to back it up. Outside of Mitchell Evans, the offense really had no one proven to perform at a high level in their career and when things aren’t witnessed up close that much it becomes way too easy to gloss over things in the excitement of the off-season. The media should’ve been given more access and the people who care about the program should’ve been more aware that things aren’t quite so amazing as they seem before the season starts. This team had holes, it has very obvious holes right now, and it sucks that we went into this season feeling like there weren’t as many issues.

The talent gap is something we have talked about ad nauseam for almost a decade now and it is a real thing. But with all due respect to our fearless leader Eric, we’re talking about Northern Illinois, not Alabama. Yet, Notre Dame often looked like they were being pushed around by Alabama on Saturday but we’ll get to that part later.

What I want to focus on is the talent level of this particular team. A couple of things which I am copying over from my ill-timed “trust Notre Dame” article are the stats on how Marcus Freeman clearly has the Irish recruiting at a higher level than they were under Brian Kelly. It’s not debatable if we choose to trust the data:

Notre Dame went on the road last week and handled their business against a Texas A&M team which has an identical score in the Talent Composite and a 79% BCR. I’m sorry but I just cannot accept that lack of talent at certain positions is why we lost to Northern Illinois especially after what we saw in College Station. A slightly less talented version of this team should have beaten Ohio State and their insane 85% BCR last year at home. This 2024 team has 58 four and five-star players on the roster compared to 44 on the 2018 team which went undefeated and made the playoff.

Does Notre Dame have the talent to seriously compete for a title? That answer is no unless we employ Connor Stallions or become the greatest developmental program in the country. But does Notre Dame have the talent to beat a team like Northern Illinois at home without breaking much of a sweat? The answer should be an emphatic YES because what are we even doing here if that’s not the case?

What are you doing during the week?

Marshall. Stanford. Northern Illinois. The common denominators between the three inexcusable, unacceptable losses that Freeman has had at Notre Dame are as follows:

  • The week after a big game/win over a ranked opponent
  • Home game against a double digit underdog
  • Irish were out-gained, posted a lower yards per play, and lost time of possession

Short aside: Notre Dame has had some great defenses over the past decade, but the 2023 unit might be my all-time favorite. The Irish defense was consistently elite in a way they haven’t been for a long time. There are nine categories which go into calculating Defensive FEI and Notre Dame ranked no lower than 20th in any of them. Opponents labored to get anything going as the Irish ranked 5th in preventing drives of 30 yards or more.

On Saturday? Notre Dame gave up 190 yards rushing which is the most they’ve surrendered since the 2022 USC debacle. NIU put together eight drives of 30 yards or more, an incomprehensible number because the most ND gave up in a game last season was five. NIU had more total yards, yards per play, and yards per pass attempt than any team since the aforementioned USC game. Let me repeat that for you: Northern Illinois moved the ball better on Notre Dame than did offenses featuring Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Riley Leonard (lol) in 2023. The defense isn’t why the Irish lost on Saturday, but I’m not letting them off the hook.

So what manner of horrible things are happening in practice to explain this? In his Monday Presser, Freeman admitted that the players “believed the hype” after last week but that doesn’t pass the smell test to me. That does not explain be able to physically manhandle one of the most talented teams in the country on the road, and then being manhandled yourself by a G5 team starting several FCS transfers because their better players were picked off by lower-tier P4 teams! That does not explain giving up almost 6ypp to an offense which ranked 104th in Offensive F+/- last year and being out-gained by over 100 yards. I’m sorry, I just don’t buy it.

I am really trying to drill down the level of apathy needed to put forth a pathetic performance like that. And that apathy was on display Saturday with Jaylen Sneed loafing on several plays and Jaden Greathouse dropping Riley Leonard’s only well-thrown ball of the day among other examples. When you lose a game like this it comes down to coaching and preparation. It really felt like the Irish were going to coast after scoring first but then NIU scored that fluky touchdown and the players looked visibly dejected. They were probably thinking “ah dammit, we actually have to try now?” Except it’s really hard to lock in again when you already mentally checked out the second Mitch Jeter made the game-sealing field goal in College Station.

Offensive Playcalling

One play-action pass on Saturday. One carry for Jeremiyah Love in the 4th Quarter. Four carries for Jadarian Price, total.

May I ask why?

Quarterback

Here are the combined Irish QB stats from Marshall/Stanford/NIU triumvirate: 2 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 56% completion percentage, 178 yards per game and a putrid 81.71 passer rating. One of those games was helmed by Tyler Buchner who while talented, suffered from Brandon Wimbush syndrome and the other by Drew Pyne who might be the worst QB to ever post a passer rating over 150 for a season. With the benefit of hindsight we’ve been able to dismiss those performances as being the result of a rookie head coach without much talent on offense.

Notre Dame trotted out Riley Leonard on Saturday who has been bandied about as a first round NFL Draft pick and was chosen by at least one national media member to win the Heisman this season. Yet with advantages that Pyne or Buchner would’ve killed for, he crapped out the worst performance of the three. Leonard’s atrocious play nuked the offense in a way that made it impossible to come back from against a team which ranked 66th in F+/- defense last year.

This is the third straight season that Irish fans have been publicly apoplectic about the quarterback position. We were willing to accept good but not great seasons from Ian Book and Jack Coan because we had no real alternatives but now we would be lucky to have that kind of steady production. I was really discouraged with how quickly the fanbase turned against Sam Hartman last year because in my opinion, it wasn’t entirely fair. He had lost almost all of his best receiving weapons by the Clemson game and his OC was trying to run an unimaginative throwback offense. I said in my piece about that stale offense last year that the takeaway from a lot of people about Hartman should have been “it’s pretty concerning how much worse he looks at Notre Dame despite having better players” instead of “haha wow he was overrated the whole time.”

We now have multiple blue chip quarterbacks waiting in the wings along with a steady Steve Angeli, but the Monday depth chart still listed Leonard as the starting QB. And I don’t want to be too harsh on this guy either because something is clearly wrong with him or else he wouldn’t be arm punting everything over 10+ yards downfield. The talent is real along with his impressive running ability. He could be a really good QB and exactly what this offense needs.

But mark my words: Notre Dame will not be in the business of signing another CJ Carr or even a Kenny Minchey if Leonard is allowed to go out there and perform like that with no consequences. Rumors started coming out over the summer about certain members of the 2023 Irish wide receiver corps slacking off during practice because they knew they wouldn’t get benched due to the thin depth chart. That cannot be the case with Leonard. If he can’t rise to the level of game manager against Purdue then we need to see the fresh blood we’ve been stockpiling.

Marcus Freeman

Let me make something very clear: the Northern Illinois Huskies missing their best defensive player and led by a 25-33 head coach should never, EVER beat Notre Dame the way they did on Saturday. Marcus Freeman is not a fresh face to Notre Dame anymore, he’s been on campus since early-2021. Year Three has always proven to be a remarkable benchmark for coaches in South Bend: we will know exactly what kind of coach you will be by the end. What are we supposed to gather from the first two games this season?

It’s even more frustrating to have this conversation now because Freeman orchestrated a huge leap last year that didn’t show up in the win column. 2023 was the first season in 50 years that Notre Dame finished in the top-ten in both points scored and points given up per game (by the way, that 1973 team won the national title). Four players made the AP All-American 1st and 2nd teams, tying Georgia for the most in the country. The 2023 team compiled a final F+/- rating of 1.72, their best finish ever. Notre Dame ranked ahead of Washington, Texas, Alabama, and Florida State in overall FEI, the teams ranked 2-5 in the final CFP rankings. By almost every measure, this was arguably the best Irish team since the Holtz era.

And they still lost three games thanks to critical deficiencies at wide receiver, the interior offensive line, and at offensive coordinator. They lost to Ohio State due to criminal mismanagement with the game on the line while the offense turned in disinterested performances against Louisville and Clemson. I’m starting to feel a little differently about those last two games which came after impressive wins against #17 Duke and Pitt. Were we beaten thanks to bad tactics or talent or did Freeman just prepare the team the same way he did against NIU? It’s a relevant question.

I think I speak for most fans when I say that we can’t do this emotional whiplash of beating a ranked SEC team on the road immediately followed by losing as a four-touchdown favorite. We already had to worry about no-showing in big games under Kelly and now we have to worry about doing that against the worst teams on our schedule? Freeman has done good things in big games that’s made even national sportswriters sit up and pay attention. But it means nothing if the team undoes all of that goodwill the very next week.

Now What

Who the hell knows? This is uncharted territory for Notre Dame football. We’ve had plenty of letdowns over the past thirty years but none so sudden and so shocking as this one. Everything was laid out in front of this team but they couldn’t even take care of business against a MAC school with a sub .500 record the last five seasons. Marcus Freeman is now 5-3 in home games in which ND is a 17.5-point favorite or more. At least we knew what was wrong with those Davie-Willingham-Weis teams when they were beaten: they were badly-coached and lacked high-end talent at key spots. I’ll repeat the headline, what’s our excuse now?

What I do know is that Marcus Freeman has forever lost the benefit of doubt. He has received unprecedented support from the university in terms of NIL investment, coaches’s pay, and new facilities. Notre Dame hired away the offensive coordinator of the #1 offense in America last year and held onto one of the most respected defensive coordinators in all of football. We knew he would need a lot of support to succeed as a first-time head coach at Notre Dame and he has gotten damn-near everything he needs. He has no one to blame but himself for the current situation. We all desperately want for him to win, but for some reason he can’t do it consistently enough.

The team has lost games against inferior opponents every year he’s been the coach with incoherence on offense being the prime culprit. It’s a sick joke that his first game as head coach was a pretty good offensive performance undone by the worst defensive effort I have ever seen from a Notre Dame team. I often wish we could just freeze time forever after Michael Mayer scored to put the Irish up by 21 in the Fiesta Bowl. We were all thinking the same thing: Marcus Freeman is going to win an NY6 bowl in his first game! And right after getting a commitment from a 5-star safety who is totally not going to flip!

The high-water mark of the Marcus Freeman era.

I know this is the most obvious statement ever but it would’ve been so much better to have just won against NIU by a single point. In this parallel universe a 2-0 Irish team would’ve lost a lot of national goodwill but at least we would have avoided the most catastrophic loss of the post-Holtz era. At least a special season would still be in the works and Notre Dame could have recalibrated against a good test this week in Purdue. Instead, we’re talking about whether the current coach will ever rebound from such a wretched and humiliating performance.

I don’t know what’s going to happen, but I’m just done with the excuses. I can promise you that if Freeman is eventually let go that Notre Dame will and should never hire another first-time head coach. We now have decades of evidence proving that this job is not for everyone. We need a coach who can recruit with the best, develop NFL-level players while maintaining academic prestige, and can make the right tactical decisions in important moments.

And we sure as hell need a coach who can find a way to beat Northern Illinois.