I’m totally going to overthink this.
In the haste of leading up to the 2020 football season and the questions about whether there’d even be a season to be played, we did not feature a Heisman preview at 18 Stripes. Back in May 2020 I did look at the Notre Dame players who have almost won the Heisman, though. Two years ago we previewed the 2019 Heisman odds and Joe Burrow was not mentioned even once. We weren’t the only ones to miss that badly.
We’ll try to do better this time.
The Betting Favorites
QB Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma
QB Sam Howell, North Carolina
QB D’Eriq King, Miami
Rattler has been the prohibitive favorite since last year ended and all of the rookie NFL quarterbacks announced their intentions to move on to the pro game. One of my personal tips has always been to stay away from anyone who is this strong of a favorite. Rattler will have a huge target on his back (the Big 12 is going to be pissed off with the conference realignment news!) all season long and slip-ups are generally not forgiven as much when you’re put this high up on a pedestal.
Howell and King are typically well inside the top 7 to 10-ish odds for quarterbacks with experience, although everyone should be wary of ACC signal callers from teams that don’t have true national title expectations. King especially feels like a hard no for me as he’s coming off a major knee injury and could be wrecked in the opening week against Alabama.
The High Ceiling Unknowns
QB DJ Uiagalelei, Clemson
QB Bryce Young, Alabama
QB CJ Stroud, Ohio State
QB Emory Jones, Florida
DJU is my pick to win the Heisman. He’ll get a spotlight immediately against Georgia, faces an entirely manageable schedule, and Clemson’s roster (Justyn Ross is cleared to play which is nice to see) is set up for him to absolutely sling it all over the yard. Get ready for the “Wow, Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence never won the Heisman but Uiagalelei did in his first season” takes.
Young is an interesting pick just because there are so many new faces emerging for Alabama and he’ll be the focus of attention for many across the country.
Big things are expected for Stroud after a redshirt last year and picking the Ohio State quarterback is rarely a bad choice in the Ryan Day system. However, the inclusion of top 2022 recruit Quinn Ewers reclassifying and coming to Columbus this month (plus 2021 5-star Kyle McCord!) has a distinctly strong whiff of controversy that could torpedo Stroud if we’re strictly talking Heisman.
I generally like Dan Mullen’s ability to get the most out of his quarterback’s but right now Jones feels like a really good athlete that needs to prove a ton more in the passing game to get in this conversation.
Blue Blood Picks
QB Kedon Slovis, USC
QB JT Daniels, Georgia
QB Jack Coan, Notre Dame
A pick for Slovis is basically a pick for Clay Helton, and well, maybe that’s not super smart. Their system is going to allow Slovis to get his numbers but USC isn’t exactly loaded on offense around him and when was the last time a Trojan’s team off the national title radar really surprised?
Slovis’ former teammate Daniels is an intriguing pick if the Dawgs can get past Clemson in the opener. One of those quarterbacks coming out of that game may be the Heisman front-runner for most of September.
Is Coan talented enough to win the Heisman? What kind of numbers would he have to put up to be discussed? There’s a scenario where he’s the face of a blossoming passing game with the Irish sweeping through the difficult middle part of the schedule and suddenly this is a thing, although he’d really have to overshadow Kyren Williams.
If Your Team is Much Better
QB Matt Corral, Ole Miss
QB Graham Mertz, Wisconsin
QB Bo Nix, Auburn
QB Sean Clifford, Penn State
QB Cade McNamara, Michigan
Corral is one of the hot names for the Heisman to watch. He edges out Slovis for the most passing yards per game returning from 2020 Power 5 quarterbacks and likely eclipses 4,000 total yards and 40 touchdowns pretty easily this year in Kiffin’s system. But, can they win enough?
Mertz looked to be a shoe-in for this list after his start with Wisconsin last year but came crashing down hard thereafter. He’s an intriguing choice who should be backed up by a very good defense but if all those Wisconsin backs couldn’t win the Heisman can their quarterback in an offense that lacks fireworks?
The passing for Bo Nix has been subpar for 2 years but maybe a new system revitalizes his career? It’s at least worth considering as I think the SEC West could be much more wide open than people are expecting.
Nothing about Clifford has impressed me that much and any Heisman hope feels like he’s filling a vacuum before the season begins and folks thinking Penn State will be better. I don’t know how anyone looks at Michigan’s momentum right now and thinks McNamara is a good pick beyond recruiting pedigree.
Your Team Will Never Be Good Enough
QB Malik Willis, Liberty
QB Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina
These quarterbacks combined for 4,748 passing yards, 46 passing touchdowns, only 9 interceptions with 1,513 rushing yards, 21 rushing touchdowns, and 21-2 records last year. Willis is getting a lot of NFL love but it’s practically impossible for either of these guys to be on the Heisman ballot given their weak schedules.
Your Non-QB Longshots
RB Breece Hall, Iowa State
WR Chris Olave, Ohio State
DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
RB Kyren Williams, Notre Dame
Hey, a guy from this group won the award last year and he was the first wideout to do so since 1991. Did you know that Breece Hall is the top returning vote getter (6th) from last year’s Heisman race? Can you rely on back-to-back great seasons from a running back that isn’t playing at a blue-blood?
Olave may be grabbing the mantle as the top receiver in the country but his production to date should keep him well down the odds board. Thibodeaux (23.5 TFL in 21 career game) might be the only defender worth mentioning as a long shot if Oregon is in the limelight again.
Robinson and Kyren are actually not terrible picks given their lower odds at most books. Both are on teams that could do well and if so they’d be the most famous faces on each offense.
Decent Known Quantities
QB Michael Penix Jr., Indiana
QB Dillon Gabriel, UCF
QB Brock Purdy, Iowa State
QB Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
The sample size was small (he was injured 5.5 games into 2020) but Penix coming back in 2021 to lead a fun Indiana team could be a Heisman storyline to watch.
The numbers have been there for Gabriel in his career (7,223 passing yards and 67 total touchdowns over the last 2 seasons) although you have to wonder how Gus Malzahn’s offense is going to affect this output and if UCF will remain an AAC power.
Purdy is so much like Ian Book and will have to compete with teammate Hall for Heisman love. You have to think Iowa State has to win the Big 12 and challenge for the playoffs for Purdy to surpass other national stars.
Cincinnati faces Indiana, Notre Dame, and UCF all within a 4-game span from late September. A sweep pretty much means the Bearcats could go undefeated but even if they don’t Ridder has some opportunities to shine.
Wild Guess
QB Haynes King, Texas A&M
QB Casey Thompson, Texas
If you’re into hyping young quarterbacks in the Lone Star State, here you go. Neither quarterback has even won their job yet so maybe wait to make a bet.
Good Numbers, Bad Team Guy
QB Sam Hartman, Wake Forest
QB Malik Cunningham, Louisville
QB Phil Jurkovec, Boston College
Welcome to the ACC! All 3 of these players are likely to go over 3,000 passing yards this season and find pockets of individual success. Their teams also combined for 17 losses last year, less than ideal.
No, Stay Away
QB Anthony Brown, Oregon
One of the strangest off-season topics has been the hype of Anthony Brown presumably taking over the job at Oregon. He was a 2:1 TD to interception guy at Boston College and is a career 55.2% passer. Even with an Oregon system bump I don’t see it at all for him.
You Probably Peaked Already
QB Tanner Morgan, Minnesota
Morgan broke a bunch of school records back in 2019 but his numbers plummeted in 2020 and now most don’t expect Minnesota to make a lot of noise in the Big Ten. If the Gophers do get it turned around this 5th-year senior is potentially someone to watch.
Worth Some Dough
QB Jayden Daniels, Arizona State
QB Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State
I love both of these long-shot picks, to be honest. Daniels has only played in 16 career games but his numbers (3,644 passing yards, 578 rushing yards, 29 total TD, 3 INT) are super impressive. There’s a lot of turmoil surrounding their program right now but if that subsides Daniels may be the Pac-12 Player of the Year.
Sanders I like a little less. He’s got really good numbers through 2 seasons (4,072 passing yards, 897 rushing yards, 34 total TD) but needs to work on his interceptions (19 picks in 20 games). The Cowboys aren’t expected to do super well although things can get crazy in the Big 12 at any point.
PSA: https://www.peacocktv.com/sports/notredame
Not sure if this is better or worse but for those who want more peacock for less $$$ I suppose it is better.
Uiagalelei would be my pick too, we’ve seen he can put up the numbers and if he just wins that first game and looks impressive in it then he is going to be off to the races.
If there was a +1000 bet for “top Bama RB” I would put action on that
They surprised on the downside a few times lately when they were on the National Radar.
I love you Clay Helton, never stop being you.
What are the chances Harbaugh and Helton both get fired after the year?
I think Harbaugh is a goner. Pretty sure Michigan was trying to get rid of him last winter but couldn’t find a landing spot for him.
From reading how he re-worked his contract it does seem like a no brainer that the school can cut him in terms of the money and it makes sense. The read on it def looks like he’s bet on himself for one last chance this year to do something.
But their over/under is 7.5 (and +100 for the over) so Vegas is seeing about a 7-5 as the most likely season. That probably merits a change but if he can get to like 8-4 with perhaps a non-humiliation against tOSU, is that enough to stay? Or maybe 7-5 with a win in a low bowl game? (Assuming he doesn’t get canned the day after tOSU drops them to 7-5..)
Let’s go UM! 8-4! 8-4! 8-4! Throw in a bowl win against some bad team with a big name and 4 more years!
I’d say 2011, Kiffin’s second season. They started ranked 25 and were unranked for most of the first half of the season, but finished 10-2 and ranked in the top 10. They would have played for the PAC-12 title if they were eligible and probably would have gone to a BCS game.
Before that, probably 2002, Carroll’s second season. Similar thing — started at 20, blasted Iowa in the Orange Bowl and finished ranked 4.
Brock “Noted Notre Dame Killer” Purdy, as he was known for three weeks leading up to the bowl game, which, if still being played today, now in the fourteen thousandth quarter, would still not feature an Iowa State touchdown.
For all the hype ISU got going into that game, they sure looked silly the whole time.
Those are my favorite kind of ND wins, granted ISU was 7-6, but details schmeetails.
And yes, still out of the end zone 2 years later. Nerds
Turns out “best defense in the Big 12” is about the same as “hottest person at the Star Trek convention.”
I’ve seen some scandalous/sultry cosplays, but I’m picking up what you’re putting down
It should also be noted that in certain ND-centric circles, people openly pine for Matt Campbell — the coach who got freaking de-pantsed by the Irish in the bowl game just last year — to replace Brian Kelly.
Just a friendly reminder that our fanbase includes some hardcore morons.
Why would it be a moronic opinion that Matt Campbell couldn’t be a good Notre Dame candidate just because the team he coached lost to a ND team that had a superior talent level?
If Marcus Freeman was still the Cincy DC and ND puts up 35 on them in a win is it moronic to want him? Clark Lea’s Vandy team would get run off the field by the Irish, you must be an IDIOT to think Clark Lea is a possible Kelly replacement.
Matt Campbell has a single 2-loss season in his 9 year head-coaching career. Last year was arguably his best year as a head coach, and his team lost 3 games, including a loss to a Sun Belt school by 3 scores. I can’t imagine a scenario where getting rid of Kelly and replacing him with Campbell improves the program.
Imagining Campbell not bringing the Iowa State personnel to South Bend would be a good place to start (and kinda my whole point).
And, btw, I have no problems with thinking “Campbell hasn’t shown enough to be the best candidate” which is reasonable. But just because his team lost to ND doesn’t disqualify his future potential spot.
Campbell builds an excellent culture and has a 70-43 record. Not perfect, but he’s done very well at Toledo and then revived one of the worst P5 jobs at Iowa State. I’m not saying hand him the job the instant it’s possible, but I see nothing that’s disqualified him from consideration and is at least worth checking out.
Well I don’t exactly think that’s the point you were responding to; there are people who, at least prior to that game, ACTIVELY wanted Kelly to leave and Campbell to come in. That, to me, is absolutely insane.
I don’t think Rufus was saying don’t hire Matt Campbell if he wins the next 3 national titles and Kelly retires.
I wasn’t talking about unnamed shadow people that want Kelly out now and Campbell in now, I was responding to what was said about Campbell getting “freaking de-pantsed by the Irish” not being terribly relevant to Campbell’s future as a viable ND football candidate.
I think they quite literally do not know the Camping World Bowl occurred.
Seriously.
For more overthinking: who are the players you’d want on your roster if you could pick anybody in the country?
For this season only, I think I’d go Rattler #1, Thibodeaux #2, then a big fall-off to maybe Howell or our beautiful safety Kyle H.
If eligibility and 2023/2024 were allowed for consideration, I think it’s DJU #1, Quinn Ewers #2, then Bryce Young or Rattler?
I’m not convinced that Rattler is actually that good, given that he plays in the Coors Field of CFB conferences. Think I’d rather have Ugoogly.
DJU and his wide receiver Ross would make us instant title contenders.
Ewers has never played a down of college ball, who knows how he’ll turn out?
Might be too much bias based on how they performed vs ND in 2020, but I’d take DJ over Howell in any context. Way more arm talent, size, pretty much just lacks experience, and even that didn’t seem to be an impediment. He carved up a Clark Lea defense like no one else. Tons of weapons on the outside but people forget Etienne went 18 carries for 28 yards in the first game. Clemson couldn’t run it at all that night, their offense was all DJ and he looked like an old pro.
UNC couldn’t run it either and Howell couldn’t do much at all, and that was with Hamilton ejected for most the game too.
Three top-rated QBs of recruiting era: Vince Young, Quinn Ewers, Trevor Lawrence. I like the odds there.