The last time I sat down and went full stream of consciousness for your entertainment, the Irish had just suffered their worst loss in the post-Holtz era. People were pissed. Three months later, they are riding a 10-game winning streak and get to host the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff game. It’s been quite the season but we somehow ended up right where we expected to be. Most Irish fans are thrilled that Marcus Freeman will be Notre Dame’s head coach for the foreseeable future which was not the prevailing opinion on September 15.
However, the current circumstances are a bit different from pre-season expectations. Notre Dame’s opponent will be Indiana’s flagship public university which comes to South Bend with the wind at their backs. I have a lot of feelings on the X’s and O’s behind this game as well as the Jimmies and the Joes but that’s for Eric to breakdown in his game preview. I wanted to take a look at the fan psyche before kickoff and examine the anxieties behind yet another big matchup. This is no ordinary game and no ordinary opponent so it’s time for some more stream of consciousness!
The Recent Past
There’s only one place to start: Notre Dame has played many big games but the Irish rarely meet the moment. I don’t need to list all of the failures against the cream of the crop of college football, but the Irish have had six what I call “championship opportunities” since 2012 where the reward for winning would’ve been an NY6 trophy, conference championship, or the BCS crystal ball. In five of those games (2012 Alabama, 2015 Ohio State, 2018 Clemson, 2020 Clemson in ACC title game, 2020 Rose Bowl), the Irish were blown off the field and lost by an average score of 36-14. The 2022 Fiesta Bowl is an outlier where Notre Dame merely choked away a 21-point lead to a pretty suspect Oklahoma State team. Progress!
As the 2023 Ohio State debacle demonstrates, the Irish find ways to embarrass themselves even when they play well enough to win. In 2014, Notre Dame had a chance to do something truly special in knocking off #2 FSU and Jameis Winston in Tallahassee. Yet that game ended with our fans irate about the nuances of officiating offensive pass interference and Brian Kelly’s postgame whining became something of a national joke. The 2015 team went to #9 Stanford with a playoff berth on the line and played a fantastic offensive game. All they had to do was keep the Cardinal out of field goal range with only 20 seconds left on the clock. Instead, it took only three plays and free penalty yardage for Brian VanGorder’s defense to collapse.
It would’ve been impossible for the Irish to play any worse than they did in some spots such as 2017 Miami, 2019 Michigan, or 2023 Louisville. The quarterbacks melted down, the usually stout defense faltered and the game was not in doubt by the start of the fourth quarter. Mind you, Notre Dame was the favorite in all three games and those performances were against teams with equal or lesser talent. That same kind of team that will be standing on the opposite sideline this Friday.
Please win, but more importantly please don’t lose
Notre Dame’s big game failures have come in all shapes and sizes, but a loss here would feel different. For me and so many other fans, losing to IU in this situation would be something of a final insult. Just one more kick in the pants in a long line of groin injuries and frankly, a bridge too far. This might just be my own paranoia but this matchup against IU has some sketchy vibes. When the potential opponents were Alabama or Miami, my mindset was “Man, it would be so great to win that game.” Now, it’s a subtle shift from “please win” to “please don’t lose.”
The Hoosiers are just happy to be here while all of the pressure is on the Irish to handle business. Notre Dame has 58 four and five star players on this team while Indiana has ten. Notre Dame’s best defensive player is Xavier Watts who is a two-time consensus All-American, Bronko Nagurski Award winner, and the personal tormentor for USC fans everywhere. IU’s best defensive players were all suiting up in the Sun Belt last year. Notre Dame is a top-five winningest program in college football history. Indiana holds the distinction for having more losses than any program in the nation. It’s one thing to give it everything you’ve got but fall short against Georgia. It’s another to lose in your own stadium to the distant afterthought you share the state with.
I believe this is why a lot of Irish fans would’ve rather played Alabama. It doesn’t even matter if IU is better than Bama, the potential embarrassment of losing this game would be far more catastrophic than losing to Bama. I live in northern Indiana and will be in the building on Friday night along with many other local Irish fans. We grew up with IU fans with the unspoken understanding that Indiana will never have the right to talk trash against Notre Dame football. Now there are somewhat credible fears that at least 30% of Notre Dame Stadium will be red on Friday and those guests won’t be quiet in the event we lose. This isn’t an existential game for the program or for Marcus Freeman but it does feel existential for many fans. Obviously this isn’t really that important to the bigger picture, but some of us are hanging on by a thread here!
The Games You Want the Most
We’ve talked a lot about how hard it is to win in modern college football and that beating the teams you’re supposed to beat is worth celebrating. Of course, there is a lot of merit to that viewpoint and the Irish have done this well despite some glaring exceptions. Since 2017, Notre Dame is 84-18 with a 82% winning percentage which is better than the historical average of this program. We are lucky to no longer be stuck with a revolving door of failed coaches who can do no better than 6-6.
But (and this is a question for all of you dear readers), doesn’t it all feel so hollow? The Irish usually win the games that you don’t have to plan your weekend around, the ones that require about 10-15% of your attention. It’s the games you circle when the schedule is released years in advance that are the problem. The games where you know a win would satisfy you for at least one full presidential term. That is where Notre Dame has fallen short 99% of the time since 1993.
ESPN writer Bill Connelly once said that all true college football fans deserve to have that one moment of being a champion or achieving something your program has never done before.* Have Notre Dame fans had a single moment like that in the past 30 years? Maybe Stanford and USC in 2012? This is the malaise that we’ve had to deal with for most of our adult lives. It’s become a nationally accepted talking point that the Irish can’t win the big one and whenever we’ve had a chance, the team has either blown it or gotten blown out. To paraphrase Mike Valenti of 2006 Michigan State fame, every sterotype about Notre Dame football comes true in these spots.
This is the Moment
However, this might be slowly changing. Marcus Freeman has proven that he can get a team to play their absolute best when the lights are brightest. The entire country watched an offensive line with only six starts on record bulldoze an SEC defense in College Station. The Ohio State loss last year was a massive missed opportunity, but the fact that the Irish should have won that game engenders confidence. Yes, he has lost to some truly henious teams and recruiting hasn’t been gangbusters as promised. But you can just tell the players on the field look faster, tougher and more skilled. They look like they belong.
There’s a sense of urgency that follows Freeman into the playoffs. The field finally feels open after years of domination by an untouchable ruling caste of three or four teams. There is no Eddie Lacy or Trevor Lawrence waiting should the Irish run the table. The average F+/- rating for the top two teams from 2018-2023 was 2.48 but this year Ohio State and Oregon average a 2.12.** For the sake of reference, the last national champion to grade out 2.12 or lower was 2016 Clemson which was hardly a perfect team.
Notre Dame just has to win this game and they probably should. They have better players than Indiana, are at home, and because it’s Notre Dame vs freakin’ Indiana. The problem is that this game definitely qualifies as “one you want the most” and we’ve established that the Irish are batting less than .100 in that category. Yet, failure really isn’t an option here. It would honestly make me physically ill to see IU take the field against a wounded Georgia in New Orleans. God forbid they end up in the title game after beating one of the sketchy teams in the semifinal.
I realize much of this column has been moaning about the trials and tribulations of fandom which is something you sign up for when you decide to follow a team. I know that it comes off as whining. But dammit aren’t you just tired of this team letting you down? Torturing you with winning seasons only to not win anything of note? Constantly forcing you into painful interactions with Michigan fans when they catch you wearing green? No, we crave something more. Often I sit and yearn and wonder why those bozos up north got a title.
As I alluded to earlier, I think a loss here would seriously damage my relationship with this team and I know for a fact that I am not alone in feeling that way. Notre Dame fans have been beaten down for a long time now and you just cannot lose to Indiana in this spot. Their fans are thrilled, they’re playing with house money after they got to experience some well-earned catharsis from this season. Notre Dame fans can finally feel the same way if the Irish win this game and head to Bourbon Street with a C+ version of Georgia on deck.
It’s been 31 years since Lou Holtz hoisted the Cotton Bowl trophy signifying ND’s last major postseason win. Beating IU would at least get that monkey off the program’s back but the 2024 team is in a position to strive for even more. Realistically, this is Notre Dame’s best opportunity for a national championship since that 1993 team. Their best can beat anyone in the country and Nick Saban ain’t walking through that door. The 2020 team lost to Alabama because Saban recruited Najee Harris who can jump over people and now we have a guy like that.
This is the defining game for Marcus Freeman’s tenure at Notre Dame so far. He was promoted to head coach to not just get us into these games, but start winning them. Those of us who bemoaned the fact that ND always draws the hardest possible postseason matchup have been rewarded with an entirely beatable opponent. The Irish have a chance to write some wrongs on Friday and turn the page on a turbulent period in program history.
Just don’t lose. Please don’t lose.
*I’m legally obligated to point out that the U.S. Supreme Court carved out an exception specifically for Michigan fans under the grounds that they don’t deserve it.
**I hope people realize how insanely good those top teams from 2018-2023 were. That 2.48 average is higher than every national champion’s final rating from 2007-2017 with the exceptions of 2008 Florida and 2012 Alabama. It will be a long time before we see that level of play again.
