College football–and college sports in general–are really going through some unprecedented times right now. The NIL rules have shaken up over 100 years of amateur tradition, the NCAA is on unsteady ground as an institution, while the conference expansion roulette heating up really feels like it’s about to re-draw the map in a lasting way that makes Texas A&M or Nebraska leaving the Big 12 years ago look relatively quaint.

For Notre Dame the attempts by Texas and Oklahoma to join the SEC feels like whiplash coming off the heels of a future 12-team playoff system that was extremely friendly to Notre Dame and seemed to have locked in independence for the Irish. In fact, all the way back on June 12th I wrote exactly that–expansion for the playoffs saved Notre Dame as an independent for my lifetime.

Here are some thoughts on the recent conference expansion rumors that could change the current landscape:

Ya’ll Go Ahead Then

Conferences trying to add new members, increase their membership, and attempt to increase their monetary value is something that personally doesn’t move the needle much for me as a Notre Dame fan. I see why the likes of Texas or Oklahoma would make the jump out of greed but I also view it more with bemusement than anything.

There are limits to a conference’s power within the traditional structure of college football (and sports in general) and the more the leagues increase in size the more difficult you’re making it for certain programs within your own cabal. For example, life may be tougher for the Sooners in the SEC but they don’t really view it that way since they are a current power and believe (maybe rightfully) that they’ll get even stronger with the increased exposure and money. It’s the likes of Texas A&M and Tennessee, traditionally second-tier members, who will feel the squeeze even more and win a lot less.

But their checks will be a bit larger.

Of course, the circular arguments we could see with 3 or 4 SEC teams making the playoffs is frustrating for some. The other side of that coin is that while a 9-3 Oklahoma might not seem worthy from the SEC you’d have to advocate for non-conference winning 10-2 Washington or 10-2 Penn State in their place instead. Then, it’s not so easy to say no to the SEC!

The Waiting Game

Notre Dame is still uniquely positioned right now and can afford to wait and see how the dust settles. Of course, many Irish fans are worried what all of this will mean to our team but this is so much scarier for the remnants of a Texas and Oklahoma-less Big 12 and most of the smaller Power 5 programs in other conferences, too.

If I had the power I’d like to figure out today if the future is going to evolve toward re-drawn Super Conferences where it’s possible the Power 5 gets reduced to just 4 or maybe even just 3 conferences.

We basically have the following scenarios:

1) Expansion leads to 4 Power leagues

2) Expansion leads to 3 Power leagues

3) Expansion keeps 5 Power leagues as Big 12 adds new members

Choice 1 would be preferable from a Notre Dame perspective. If the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, and Pac-12 want to bloat themselves into 16-team, 18-team, or 20-team conferences be my guest! In the current environment it’s difficult for the elite teams to get even more elite and all this would do is squeeze the non-elite teams in the conference even more.

Choice 3 isn’t really that bothersome although giving a bigger platform to AAC teams (who will surely be raided quickly in this scenario) probably just complicates the sport. Now more than ever, the highest level of college football does not need upwards of 75 teams given power status. A lot of these schools still struggle to pay the bills and joining a poor man’s Big 12 likely doesn’t help their cause, and maybe make it worse.

Choice 2 is interesting and long-term isn’t good news for Notre Dame as it would start to consolidate too much power into a shrinking amount of conferences. However, I’m not sure how we’d even get to that point in the near (thinking 20 years or so) future where a conference like the ACC or Pac-12 would cease to exist along with the Big 12 being gone.

Super League & No NCAA

The greatest fear with conference expansion would be it happening very quickly, to an enormous degree, while the NCAA ejects itself from the sport as we see a Super League beginning to take shape. For example, let’s imagine the SEC grabbing Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State, and Clemson in addition to Texas and Oklahoma.

There’s worry that a “semi-pro” league would form with Notre Dame on the outside looking in and it would force Notre Dame to make a very important choice for the future of its football program.

I tend to think the semi-pro fears are overblown (I believe we’ll continue to see academics and concrete attachments to universities beyond just wearing their school colors) so in the worst case scenario of a Super League coalescing I would hope Notre Dame acted quickly to join.

Being a part of a Super League, especially if they create their own separate championship, is the only reason Notre Dame should get rid of its independence in football. Some may disagree as such a move would go against the mission of the university but participating in a second-rate competition with peers of Penn State, Wisconsin, Washington, USC, Stanford, Oregon, Miami and the like will slowly shrink the Fighting Irish into a has-been program without the cachet to consider itself a national program.

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Don’t forget about the 12-team playoff in all of this. Jack Swarbrick mentioned recently that while there’s a massive lack of stability among the college football landscape he’s more committed than ever to independence given the playoff restructuring while coming off the lone campaign in the ACC during 2020.

I’ll say with some confidence that a Super League probably isn’t forming. It would certainly take a long time and so much coordination between parties that right now don’t have the same interests. It’d also take a lot of contract-breaking and is something that would grow ever-more complicated with teams from multiple conferences joining up together.

No one can even guarantee that a Super League would even work for an extended period of time. Who’s to say the SEC could balloon to 20 teams but a few years later Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU, Tennessee, and South Carolina decide to go do something else? I know that’s sacrilegious and absurd for some people to believe but it could happen.

Extremely long-term, I’m thinking 50 years or longer, these larger conferences and particularly a stronger SEC will slowly drain Notre Dame’s legacy as a football power. If the SEC really is raking in so much more money than everyone else it will have an effect that would be difficult to reverse. As I said, it’s a much larger problem for the non-SEC teams who think they are still relevant today but it’ll hurt Notre Dame too.

By some estimates, Notre Dame could be leaving as much as $35 million to $40 million on the table by not being in a conference due to upcoming new TV deals. For a program that makes upwards of $120 million per year in revenue that’s a significant amount of cash to turn away. However, as long as Notre Dame has access to the playoffs and a Super League doesn’t form it’s a price, quite literally, they are willing to pay.

The school is in the early stages of expanding Fighting Irish Television (FITV) which will eventually offer a subscription price. It’s easy to lament the current deal with NBC (reportedly worth a paltry $15 million per year through the 2025 season) but a lot of insiders expect FITV to re-define the model for a school like Notre Dame and its relationship with fans leading to an expected windfall of $30 million* or more per year. In other words, Notre Dame is hoping FITV makes up for the gap in pay for not being in the ACC full-time or permanent members in the Big Ten, Pac-12, or SEC.

*I’d probably push back that the revenue will be this large, at least right away. But, I have been on the train for a long time that college football is going to evolve into a much more different experience for fans in the coming decades and stuff like this is the future. 

The FITV experiment, should it prove to be a success early on, is an ace in the back pocket for Notre Dame. We’ll likely see increased effort from the ACC to grab Notre Dame for football but the league has very little negotiating power. The exit fee for Notre Dame to leave its agreement with the ACC is rumored to be incredibly high so that likely means Notre Dame to the SEC or elsewhere is off the table for now. Yet, without Notre Dame added to its portfolio (to say nothing of the potential impact of losing Clemson or Florida State) the ACC does not have the bargaining power to negotiate a larger TV deal (their current deal with ESPN runs through 2036 anyway!) that would even come close to making the Irish consider joining due to lost money as an independent.

For Notre Dame it’s still just a case of access to the playoffs means the future is stable while the risks taken are more for other conference members who are betting on a new league or left in the lurch in a crumbling home around them.