Ohio State took a huge tumble, Oklahoma survived a Bedlam shootout, and several other top teams maintained their position for the College Football Playoffs. We have a couple 2-loss teams lurking but really needing major help this weekend and beyond.
Top 11
1 Georgia (E, 9-0, 24-10 W vs. South Carolina)
The Dawgs stay perfect with a less than convincing win over the Gamecocks.
2 Alabama (E, 9-0, 24-10 W vs. LSU)
The Tide also win 24-10 whoa this is freaky.
3 Notre Dame (+1, 8-1, 48-37 W vs. Wake Forest)
We were 4-8 last year this is awesome.
4 Clemson (+2, 8-1, 38-31 W at NC State)
The defending champs come through with a quality road win.
5 Oklahoma (E, 8-1, 62-52 W at Oklahoma State)
The Sooners also with a quality road win, albeit with significantly less defense.
6 Miami (+5, 8-0, 28-10 W vs. Virginia Tech)
GameDay is coming to town following the Canes shutting down the Hokies.
7 TCU (+1, 8-1, 24-7 W vs. Texas)
The Frogs quietly take care of the Horns and remain in the top two spots of the Big 12.
8 Washington (+5, 8-1, 38-3 W vs. Oregon)
Off the radar since the early season the Huskies are now moving up thanks to attrition elsewhere.
9 Wisconsin (+1, 9-0, 45-17 W at Indiana)
A late surge masks another unimpressive performance by the Badgers.
10 Michigan State (NR, 7-2, 27-24 W vs. Penn State)
Sparty bounces back from a tough loss and now has wins over 3 currently ranked teams.
11 Auburn (NR, 7-2, 42-27 W at Texas A&M)
The Tigers are easily the 3rd best SEC right now but face a brutal finish down the stretch.
Next 2
Ohio State (-9, 7-2, 55-24 L at Iowa)
Just Urban Meyer’s 3rd loss in the Big Ten regular season and maybe his worst ever?
Oklahoma State (-6, 7-2, 62-52 L vs. Oklahoma)
The Cowboys couldn’t keep pace with the Sooners and will need help to win the Big 12 now.
G5 Top 3
1 UCF (E, 8-0, 31-24 W at SMU)
Finally a test and their offense looked human in a tough conference road game.
2 Memphis (E, 8-1, 41-14 W at Tulsa)
A Friday night competition and easy win for Memphis.
3 USF (E, 8-1, 37-20 W at UConn)
Our top three G5 teams are pretty much set in stone for this season.
You Were Bad
Kent State
Lost to fellow MAC doormat Bowling Green by 28 points.
UCLA
Rosen didn’t make the trip to Utah, the Bruins lost by 31 points.
Florida
Zaire couldn’t help as the Gators are embarrassed by 29 points at Missouri.
Kansas
Allowed Baylor to pick up their first win of the season, and it wasn’t close.
Maryland
Lost to Rutgers.
Week 11 Preview
Enemy Watch
Updated CFB Rankings used.
Akron (+6.5) at Miami, Ohio
North Carolina (+9.5) at Pittsburgh
Temple (-2.5) at Cincinnati
#9 Washington (-6.5) at Stanford
#12 Michigan State (+15) at #13 Ohio State
#23 NC State (-3) at Boston College
Wake Forest (+1) at Syracuse
#1 Georgia (-2.5) at #10 Auburn
SMU (+4.5) at Navy
#11 USC (-13.5) at Colorado
You know which team has fallen off a cliff this year? Pitt, has anyone paid attention to them this year? Let’s hope they hold on against a wretched Tar Heels team.
If you had Luke Fickell being a disaster hire for Cincinnati you may be close to collecting your pay out. The Bearcats are in the conversation as the worst team in the AAC.
Since the Stanford home field seemingly only exists when Notre Dame comes to town I’d gladly take the Huskies and the points this weekend. Where would we stand on Stanford if they fall to 6-4?
Michigan State can’t get any respect!
Boston College has been surprising this year but I’m a little shocked this line is so low. They have to be factoring in NC State coming off a pair of tough losses.
We want Georgia to lose, right? Is that what we’ve figured out is in the formula?
There aren’t many lines out there right now with Navy QB Zach Abey questionable. You should take SMU anyway.
Too Close for Comfort
Tennessee (+10.5) at Missouri
This year is testing my theory not to bet on SEC games with rather large lines between seemingly two bad teams. I know the Tigers just dismantled Florida and everything, but still.
Upset Pick of the Week
New Mexico (+18.5) at Texas A&M
Okay, not completely serious here. Bob Davie has quietly turned in a bad season following up a really quality campaign last fall. However, can you imagine the Aggies having all these troubles with the Lobos tricky option offense and actually losing?
National Spotlight
#15 Oklahoma State (-6.5) at #21 Iowa State
Florida State (+17) at #4 Clemson
#20 Iowa (+12.5) at #8 Wisconsin
#2 Alabama (-14.5) at #16 Mississippi State
#6 TCU (+7) at #5 Oklahoma
Things are starting to tighten up in the rankings so much so that Iowa State lost their 3rd game last weekend and still remain the Top 25.
The Clemson game is a prototypical “lines I never would’ve imagined before the season” turned all the way up to 11.
There’s no way Iowa is going to win in Madison coming off their emotional victory against Ohio State. This has depressingly sad Wisconsin-stays-undefeated all over it. Still, everyone should take those points.
That home cooking in Starkville is getting respect! Michigan State is still pissed off, see above.
Since the Big 12 was stupid and didn’t go back to divisions this weekend’s game with TCU and OU may be rematched in a few short weeks. Put another way, the Frogs could have 2 games to try and eliminate the Sooners from playoff contention.
How fortunate and good was this Notre Dame schedule? I get a lot is probably luck and happy accidents, but after this weekend they’ll have played 3 of the other 10 teams in the country, according to this ranking (and, really, USC might even be a snub here from at least the next 3 after bouncing back well from their ND humbling). All the stars aligned on a special season in so many ways.
And it’s also pretty sweet that the weekend the 2 best Big 12 teams play, there’s almost no chance to get a huge bump for them being as ND plays #7 on the road. That works out well too so that even the optics and swell of public support and all won’t really be behind Oklahoma jumping up too much if they’re to win, since if ND wins, they’ve arguably had the more impressive win to take down a previously undefeated P5 team on the road!
What puts Washington ahead of Wisconsin? 1 loss vs 0 loss. Trash schedule vs trash schedule (although Wisconsin has beaten a team that people seem to be ranking in the top 25, Northwestern). In Washington’s loss to ASU, they only scored 7. ASU has only held one other team under 30 all year.
And then, UCF is also undefeated, has blown out all but one team, hasn’t lost, and has also played a trash schedule. Basically, I’d put Washington below any undefeated team, because their resume is garbage.
Better statistically almost across the board. Better coach, more talent, better QB. 6 spots higher in FEI.
Better team, maybe not more deserving.
Hornibrook throws for a full yard more per attempt and has a higher passer rating. I don’t think he’s anything special, but I don’t think Browning is either.
Washington has played 1 team that currently has a winning record and scored 7 points. I just don’t understand what people see in this team. Of course, I also don’t understand how S&P+ has them 4 spots ahead of ND. I’m not entirely convinced that the advanced stats models properly account for how easy it is to blow out bad teams.
I don’t know, Washington might win the Pac-12 it’s not like they’re a Sun Belt team.
And I’m gonna need Hornibrook to throw for over 200 yards against a B1G more than once a year before I start thinking he’s better than Browning. This isn’t a real discussion is it!??? I feel like any of us could step in and throw deep once and a while and have a 1.5:1.0 TD/INT ratio in Wisconsin’s offense.
Meh, Browning beating up on Montana, Fresno State, and Oregon State just doesn’t impress me. I’m looking at his career game log, and he’s put up a good game against a good defense maybe once in his entire career. Hornibrook might not be good, but I haven’t seen anything that would make me want to watch Browning in a big game either.
Also, if we’re going to talk about teams winning their conference, Wisconsin is much more likely than Washington at this point. It’s not like they’re a Sun Belt team.
We can all love Chris Peterson and want him to eventually make his way to ND while acknowledging that his team isn’t actually one of the 8 best in the country.
I admire your passionate defense of Wisconsin. Having them at 9 instead of 8 in UW’s spot seems like an extremely cold take compared to this tortured QB comparison you’re making.
And it’s Petersen.
Some numbers to consider:
Washington S&P+: 3rd overall, 29th offense, 1st defense
Wisconsin S&P+: 6th overall, 30th offense, 6th defense
Washington FEI: 11th overall, 9th offense, 3rd defense, 101st SOS
Wisconsin FEI: 16th overall, 28th offense, 6th defense, 91st SOS
Washington Sagarin: 7th overall, 67th SOS
Wisconsin Sagarin: 9th overall, 68th SOS
Washington FPI: 5th overall, 16th offense, 5th defense, 63rd SOS
Wisconsin FPI: 10th overall, 22nd offense, 10th defense, 73rd SOS
UCF’s SOS by S&P+ is 108th, by Sagarin is 92nd, and by FPI is 93rd. I don’t think much of Washington’s schedule either, but there’s a pretty high probability they would’ve done at least as well against UCF’s schedule so that comparison isn’t very meaningful.
If your argument is that Washington is clearly a step below the other top teams, sure, I agree. If your argument is that Wisconsin clearly belongs ahead of them, I can’t agree with that. Wisconsin is lucky as hell that Florida Atlantic happened to end up much better than Barry thought they would be when he scheduled them – they’re 24th in S&P+ this year after posting an average ranking of 99th over the previous five seasons. If not for Kiffykins turning them around over the last 4-5 weeks, Wisconsin’s SOS would probably be down in UCF territory or below.
We’ll see how they do against Iowa this weekend. If they win big, the committee will put them ahead of Washington and one-loss Miami. Not ahead of one-loss Oklahoma, ND, or Clemson, but their resume still wouldn’t remotely stack up to any of those. Until then, though, I don’t have a problem with putting them behind based on their schedule, especially since they tried to make it softer than it is. With Iowa, Michigan, and the Big Ten title game ahead of them, I think the committee is in “show me” mode with them, and I don’t have a problem with it.
EDIT: Also, per your conference championship note, I think Wisconsin would be a considerable underdog to Ohio State and Washington would be a pick ’em or perhaps slight favorite over USC.
All of the SOS numbers you show essentially say Washington and Wisconsin have played the same schedule. Wisconsin is undefeated against that schedule, Washington has one loss. They scored 7(!!!) against the #100 S&P+ Defense. F+ has both Northwestern and FAU (two wins for Wisconsin) better than any team Washington has played!
Good lord, I can’t believe I’m arguing for Wisconsin over anybody. But man, nothing Washington has done is impressive to me. Win out, and I guess that’s a solid finish to the year. But them winning out would shock me. I think the odds of ND losing out are higher than Washington winning out.
I think it’s a philosophical thing. Again, FAU’s relative quality is a complete accident, and I think the committee is making a point about their scheduling philosophy. If FAU was at its usual level their SOS would be comfortably below Washington’s. The committee did the same thing with Baylor a few years ago when they were undefeated and had opened with something like Lamar, Austin Peay, and UTEP.
And I know this is highly subjective, but I believe Washington would truck Wisconsin head to head.
Bottom line, I don’t think it’s a travesty Washington is ranked above Wisconsin, but I do think they’re both paper tigers.
The fact that Hornibrook is not a particularly good quarterback probably has something to do with that gut feeling.
I have no animus towards Wisconsin (in fact I’d love for them to win the B1G every year), but I’m convinced they’re a decent team who is going to get absolutely shellacked by the first ranked team they play.
Don’t sleep on Iowa, man. Their three losses are all close and to ranked teams – #12 MSU by 7, #14 PSU with the clock at triple zeros, and #25 Northwestern in OT. They also beat #21 Iowa State early in the season and of course just hammered #13 OSU.
There’s absolutely a letdown risk there, but there’s also a substantial possibility that they’re just a good team. Not a great team, but not scrappy little underdogs who caught big bad OSU on an off day either. I’m not going to call a win, but it wouldn’t surprise me and I’d definitely take those points.
Me on Iowa: ZZZZZZZZZZ
Why did ESPN spend much time talking about Wisconsin last night? Didn’t they learn from Iowa 2015? Heaven forbid if the Big Ten isn’t heavily in the playoff conversation. Only in that conference can you have a schedule that weak, yet the media wants you in the playoff. Rece Davis might as well have had a Wisconsin cheerleading uniform on. At least Booger McFarland spoke truth about Wisconsin saying Notre Dame, Clemson and Oklahoma should all be ahead of even a 13-0 Wisconsin
Wow there are some good looking games on this weekend! I’m hoping for a surprisingly big Irish win, of course, but otherwise, chaos
A few thoughts and questions.
1. Why are you saying hold on Pitt? They are playing an opponent we beat, wouldn’t we want Pitt to lose to UNC?
2. FSU @Clem spread is only 2 more pts than MSU @tOSU. FSU seems clearly worse than MSU and Clemson seems clearly better than tOSU. Something is fishy.
3. What is the largest ever spread when the higher ranked team has been the underdog? Seems crazy that MSU is +15. I certainly think tOSU should win and easily, but 15 is huge for a team with essentially the same resume (just doesn’t do the wins or losses as extreme).
I think MikeyB might be on to something in his comment about how easy it is to blowout bad teams. I’m starting to think the margin of victory from good to bad teams is more exponential than linear. I feel like this has been changing recently.
My theory is the general proliferation of recruiting news and just ease of communication and travel has allowed the top teams to poach more and more talent from smaller, or even just different, areas. Kids that would normally make middle of the road teams or bad teams more competitive, but are now making the depth at tOSU better, thus allowing them to destroy these bad teams. But the top end, starter talent isn’t actually getting much better, so when they face another good team, there is much less of a difference in talent that actually sees the field.
My theory is not fully thought out. Not sure it ever makes complete sense. But I am going to blindly argue it as loudly as possible.
I’m all for blindly arguing your point. That’s what this country is built on man.
Agree with your point 1 – plus, even if it had absolutely zero bearing on anything related to ND, wouldn’t we like to see Pitt lose, just because?
I think that game is pretty meaningless for us. North Carolina winning might help our SOS marginally, but at 1-8, they have no shot at getting to a winning record and thus counting as a decent win (i.e. not “quality” but not bad).
I also think Eric’s “let’s hope” above was generic, as in “for their sake let’s hope they don’t circle the toilet.” But they’re Pitt, so…
Yup yup!
But E, why wouldn’t we want Pitt circling the toilet?
“For their sake.” He’s a good Christian, Juice.
I’m fine with seeing Pitt suck as a tangential shot at Michigan State
From the Narduzzi connection? I think there’s a general vibe around college football that Michigan State’s defensive success had little to do with Narduzzi, judging by how things have gone at Pitt. How many 40+ games have they allowed now? Feels like about 20.
MSU’s defense was so absurd with him there, it’s really shocking to me how bad Pitt has been. I don’t like Dantonio at all (and don’t think he’s much of an offensive coach), but man he must be one of the top 5 defensive coaches in the country.
lol Pitt lost
The team might be ass, but the bright blue unis looked good
[lights the Murtaugh signal]
We all have our blind spots?
We definitely want Georgia to lose to Auburn, because if that happens we then know at about 7:15 on Saturday that we don’t have to sweat the SEC championship game. Even if it’s 11-1 Georgia vs. 12-0 Bama, the loser of that game will not be ranked ahead of 11-1 Notre Dame: Georgia would have 2 losses, and Bama’s schedule is sneaky bad (plus, if they lose to Georgia, they will necessarily have lost by the either more or, at worst from ND’s perspective, the same number of points as us).
We’re two non-ND games away from being fully “win and we’re in”, and Auburn beating Georgia would be one of those games (the other would be a loss by Clemson, Wisconsin, or Oklahoma).
I’ve been vocal in the 18S back room that I think the SEC runner-up is out regardless. I know some will think I’m insane, but I’m pretty confident that unless there’s massive chaos with multiple two-loss conference champs, the SEC runner-up won’t have a good enough resume to get in over anyone, including ND.
I submit to you, therefore, that the two losses needed are Washington (probably against Wazzu or USC) and Wisconsin probably against Iowa, Michigan, or the winner of MSU/OSU). Those two eliminations would leave a 0/1-loss SEC champ, a 1-loss Big 12 champ, and a 1-loss ACC champ as clear playoff entrants, and ND clearly better than anyone else vying for the last spot.
I think, w/r/t Washington, we’re already at “win and we’re over you” status, even with the preference for conference champs (same for TCU, though that would be a slightly closer call than UW methinks). IMO, if you’re right about the SECCG (I disagree, but there’s no real precedent on that so who knows), then my view is that we’re only one Clemson, Wisconsin, or Oklahoma L from being fully win-and-in.
Though, to Eric’s point, our disagreement about the SECCG does fundamentally frame who you should be cheering for in this Georgia-Auburn game – if you think we’re in over 12-1 Georgia and are worried more about 12-1 Washington or 12-1 TCU, then you should cheer for Georgia to win (so that our loss looks as good as possible). If, like me, you view 12-1 non-champ Georgia as more of a threat than 12-1 UW or 12-1 TCU, then you should cheer for Georgia to lose. FWIW, the FiveThirtyEight model thinks Georgia losing is good for us.
If Georgia is a one-loss runner-up, they’ll have two quality wins in ND and Auburn and one borderline win in Mississippi State. If Alabama is a one-loss runner-up, they’ll have one quality win in Auburn and one borderline in Mississippi State. I don’t think either of those stacks up to quality wins over Miami, USC, and Michigan State and a borderline win over NC State, plus I think there will be a “you just had your chance” effect as well.
But, like you say, there’s no precedent for a conference championship game loser getting in, so we have no idea.
I agree with the “you just had your chance.” It would just be a giant middle finger to every other conference in the country. Especially in a year where outside those 2 teams, the SEC isn’t any good.
The third best team in the SEC scored 6 pts against Clemson. Their 4th best team has a comparable resume to Troy.
Yep. I understand everyone’s fear that the SEC will get too much credit, especially given that Georgia and Alabama are both legitimately good this year, but the committee would have to invalidate everything it has said about what’s important.
The SEC winner is clearly and deservedly in the playoff, so let’s look at the potential competitors for the other three spots:
13-0 Wisconsin, Big Ten title, quality wins over Ohio State and Iowa
12-1 Washington, Pac 12 title, quality wins over USC and Washington State
12-1 Oklahoma, Big 12 title, quality wins over TCU, TCU, Oklahoma State, and Ohio State
12-1 Clemson, ACC title, quality wins over Auburn, Miami, Virginia Tech, and NC State
11-1 Notre Dame, no conference title, quality wins over Miami, USC, Michigan State, and NC State
And now the potential resumes for the SEC runners-up:
12-1 Alabama, no conference title, quality wins over Auburn and Mississippi State
12-1 Georgia, no conference title, quality wins over Notre Dame, Auburn, and Mississippi State
The committee would have to put either one of those teams in ahead of THREE on the first list, despite a clearly weaker resume than all of them. Georgia vs. ND is obviously the closest call, but in the end I think our three top 15 wins to their one and the fact that our loss occurred in week 2 and theirs in week 14 would push us in front.
Regardless, if the SEC runner-up gets in, the committee would basically be saying “we think this team is better than you despite your conference championship, stronger schedule, and better group of quality wins.” It doesn’t compute.
And the more I think about it, I’m not even 100% sure Auburn would look that impressive. 8-4 with probably only 1 win over a ranked team? If they get blown out by both Bama and Georgia, I think they fall out of the top 20.
Just so happy to point out a nit:
Ohio State (-9, 7-2, 55-24 W at Iowa) should be a “L”
They deserve everything they get! Bwahahahaha….
(Let’s see if this works, I’m a tad rusty…)
Anyone seen this pre-Miami hype video from ND? It’s awesome
https://youtu.be/cNvdhbJnwZY
This is shaping up to be a huge game. I hope the team hates Miami as much as I do
I have gotten this from two friends already; which makes me hope it’s going viral among ND fans.
These comments from my buddy (and former rhythm guitar, keyboardist, and vocalist from our Farley Hall boys band, yes grandkids, there was a day when…) David James:
“This is a great song from the 1916 Irish Revolution – Oro se do bheatha ‘bhaile- go to this site for translations:
http://www.irishmusicdaily.com/oro-se-do-bheatha-bhaile-translations
“Spring,” in the chorus, refers to Easter when the “rising” took place, and the “welcome home” refers to exiles, mostly Americans, who went back to help fight in the revolution.
The words “Gráinne Mhaol” refer to the semi-mythical Gráinne O’Mally, a legendary pirate in Irish early history. The last verse says, “May it please God that we might see, even if we only live for weeks after, Gráinne Mhaol and a thousand warriors routing all the foreigners.”
Anyway, David is still in South Bend and you can catch him playing Irish music at Fiddler’s Hearth every now and then, also on a radio show he hosts on Wednesday evenings, I believe. In the meantime:
May it please God that we might see 33 warriors routing all the Hurricanes!
You just gave me another reason to go to Fiddlers!