If you’ve missed it last week, it’s a great chance to catch up on the annual preseason rankings of the top 25 Notre Dame football players over at Inside the Irish. You can see the consensus ranking that includes our ballot and Douglas Farmer’s astute commentary over there, but if you’ve read this far, you may be interested in the 18 Stripes ballot. Our ranking was a composite of Eric, Brendan, and my votes, which we did independently. You’ll likely find it was very close to the final composite ballot, thanks to wisdom of the crowd or whatever the opposite is.
Our 18 Stripes ballot, in descending order:
#25 Te’Von Coney: This one is a tricky mix of skill and opportunity. I think Coney is definitely one of the 25 best players on the roster, but has the challenge of competing for time with strong upperclassmen for snaps at linebacker.
#24 Tommy Kraemer: The redshirt freshman is tremendously talented, but figures to struggle at times in his first games of live action. Still, he’s secured the starting right tackle job on what is likely the strongest unit on the team, and his long-term upside is tremendous.
#23 Jonathan Bonner: There will be plenty of opportunities at defensive tackle, and while effort is a concern with some other players at the position, it doesn’t appear to be one for Bonner. The big question here is how well the junior can hold up against the run as he’s a bit undersized, but he should bring some nice interior pass-rushing ability at the very least.
#22 Nick Coleman: There’s a lot of boom or bust potential with Coleman, but he seems to be having a revival at free safety, with the strong caveats that it’s only been in practice so far. If he can provide some stability on the back end of the defense it will go a long way in allowing Mike Elko to be more aggressive with his front seven.
#21 CJ Sanders: Entering his junior year, Sanders has mostly lived up to expectations as a dangerous returner but disappointed a little in his contributions on offense. The Chip Long era could lead to a revival for slot receivers where Sanders could blow up – I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish as the team’s third-leading receiver, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he was passed up at some point by Chris Finke.
#20 Dexter Williams: You could argue that if ranking solely by ability level three running backs would make this list. With only so many touches and three hungry mouths, our group seems to project Tony Jones Jr. to maybe receive the short end of the stick. We’ve been waiting for Williams’ explosiveness to start being a game to game occurrence, and in Chip Long’s offense it might finally be time.
#19 Chase Claypool: Along with other receivers, I think Claypool’s ranking here is a little divisive and depends on who you see emerging as the primary threats along with Equanimeous St. Brown. Claypool has a world of physical ability and it’s probably a question of when, not if, he translates that into more consistency.
#18 Jay Hayes: This selection seems like a high-ceiling pick for 2017 – there’s a lack of other quality options at strong-side DE, and Hayes seems to be doing the right things this offseason. Hayes should be a plus run-blocker, with potential to jump up this list if he adds some pass-rushing production as well.
#17 Alex Bars: Moving to right guard, Bars seems primed for a “bounce-back” type of narrative this season, although he was serviceable at right tackle last year. The bar is set high on the offensive-line, but Bars could easily be the third best member of that unit, which should be one of the nation’s best.
#16 Shaun Crawford: If he stays healthy, an obviously huge if, Crawford seems like he has a terrific chance at ending the season as a top ten player. His skillset and disruptive ability from the secondary is unique on this roster, and early returns from fall camp have been very positive in terms of his recovery.
#15 Nick Watkins: At the thin cornerback position, the veteran Watkins has a chance to establish himself as the top corner on the team. The senior appears to be fully recovered from the broken arm that sidelined him for the entirety of the 2016 season, and should be a physical presence in the secondary. Will his experience translate into the assignment of opponents’ top receivers, or will talented young corners pass him up?
#14 Jerry Tillery: Enigmatic seems like a good word for Tillery, and “effort” seems like a mandatory topic to bring up in trying to project him. He wouldn’t be the first player to have things really click as an upperclassman, but things were extremely ugly the last time we saw him on the field at USC. He may be one of the single most important players on the roster in terms of how much his performance will dictate Notre Dame’s success this year.
#13 Kevin Stepherson: Boom or bust embodied, Stepherson is a fantastic talent that seems to stay in the coach’s doghouse (much like #14). I’d bet on him finishing this season as the Irish’s second-leading receiver (he was 3rd last season as a true freshman), but with a lot of competition I could see his snaps ebbing and flowing over the course of the season if he can’t prepare and focus the way coaches expect.
#12 Greer Martini: The senior seems primed for a strong year, and strikes me as a player that could take a big leap transitioning from Brian Van Gorder to Mike Elko and Clark Lea as coaches. While not flashy, Martini should be a dependable force in the front seven with few weaknesses.
#11 Sam Mustipher: Last season was a challenge, including trying to make shotgun snaps in a hurricane, but Mustipher performed admirably most of the year. Centers under Harry Hiestand have progressed well in the second and third years as starters, and Mustipher should make significant progress this year. His importance to the 2017 team has only increased over the offseason with the departure of Tristen Hoge.
#10 Daelin Hayes: The spring game did little to diminish the hype for the rising sophomore and blue chip defensive end. Encouragingly, it seems like Hayes has held his own (and then some, at times) in pass-rushing battles with Mike McGlinchey and shown improvement against the run. Expectations may need to be kept in check a little bit for a player who had just 8 tackles last season, but he’s the best hope this fall for a defense that’s been starving for a stronger pass rush.
#9 Drue Tranquill: For a player who was much maligned in 2016, there seems to be almost unanimous confidence that Tranquill is due for a fantastic season. He seems tailor-made for the rover position, and could have a Harrison Smith-like “oh, he was playing the wrong position all along” type of leap. If Mike Elko’s defense is going to take a step forward in havoc rate this year, Tranquill will play a huge role.
#8 Julian Love: While there may be some questions about where exactly Love will line up between cornerback and safety, what’s certain is that he will rarely leave the field. As a true freshman Love showed great promise and balance defending the run and pass. Best case scenario is a probably combination of health and improvement by Donte Vaughn and Troy Pride allowing Love to move to safety full-time, but either way he’ll be an impact player on defense.
#7 Alize Mack: The junior tight end is definitely a top-10 talent, but does it turn into top-10 production this year? Chip Long has preached utilizing the tight ends more heavily in the Irish offense, but it’s been a long dry spell for tight ends (since Troy Niklas) as significant weapons in the Brian Kelly era. Mack should be a red zone threat, but will have to compete with Durham Smythe and the duo of talented freshman for snaps this fall.
#6 Brandon Wimbush: The number six spot seems like the right spot for an extremely talented yet unproven quarterback on this roster. Wimbush has done all of the right things as a leader since DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire left, and has all the optimal physical tools to succeed in this offense. It’s more likely a question of how quickly, not when, he can put it all together at Notre Dame and become a star.
#5 Equanimeous St. Brown: The top receiving target on the Irish offense, ESB took a gigantic leap from his freshman to sophomore season, leading the Irish with 961 yards receiving on 16.6 yards per reception. The fantastic thing for Notre Dame is that there’s still room for growth – in consistency and also with more volume in 2017. Last season Chip Long identified Memphis receiver Anthony Miller as the top receiving weapon, and he racked up 95 receptions for 1434 yards and 14 scores. The Irish may not throw as much, but a stat line not far off is well within the range of possibilities for St. Brown.
#4 Josh Adams: The top back in what should be a run-heavy offense, a healthy Adams looks poised for a huge year. After an incredible true freshman campaign where he averaged 7.2 yards per carry, Adams struggled with injuries early in 2016 and wasn’t quite as explosive as the main running threat. Down the stretch though, Adams looked back to 2015 form though – rushing for 100 yards on 7.7 YPC against Virginia Tech and 180 yards on 10.6 YPC at USC.
#3 Mike McGlinchey: It seems strange that last year McGlinchey was likely one of the top three performers at Notre Dame yet it seemed like a slight disappointment. He had huge shoes to fill moving to a left tackle position that had been held down with excellence by Ronnie Stanley, but his strong work on the right side made a seamless transition seem possible. There were some periods of struggle in 2016, but this is still one of the top tackles in the nation who is only getting better, and in the offseason has cemented himself as one of the strongest voices on the team.
#2 Nyles Morgan: It might be a slight upset to put Morgan ahead of McGlinchey, but as a junior he was already Notre Dame’s leader in tackles and sacks from the middle linebacker position. What does the next step look like? Playing for Mike Elko in 2016, Wake Forest MLB Marquel Lee put up a ridiculous 20 TFL with 7.5 sacks – set the best-case scenario there.
#1 Quenton Nelson: Our unanimous top pick, Nelson has no holes in his game. He’s a mauling guard in the run game, and almost immovable in pass protection. He’s likely the most consistent player on the roster in terms of performing at a high level week in and week out. Ideally the identity of the Notre Dame offense looks a lot like Nelson – tough, consistent, strong, and with a slight preference for just running the ball down the other team’s throat.
What did we learn?
No one really knows who will step up at receiver: After St. Brown, right now it’s anyone’s guess as to which receivers (including the tight ends) will receive the most snaps and targets. Our order seems like the safest bet, with Mack and Stepherson as the next most frequent targets, but that’s dependent on health and getting out of the doghouse respectively. Chase Claypool and CJ Sanders could easily be passed up by some combination of Cameron Smith, Miles Boykin, and Chris Finke (maybe even Freddy Canteen?) There are a whole lot of mouths to feed at the position, without any clear answers right now.
Less than ideal in terms of talent + proven production: Going through this exercise each of the past few years one of the interesting parts for me is finding the smaller tiers here suddenly I really have no strong feeling who the next best player should be. This year one of those inflection points was after the top five – Nelson, Morgan, McGlinchey, Adams, and St. Brown are all talented upperclassmen who have proven to be tremendous assets. After that there’s a whole lot of talented players that for one reason or another (youth, injury) haven’t proven themselves yet, like Wimbush, Mack, Stepherson, Love, Hayes). At most positions recruiting has been strong enough that there’s at least a few talented options to choose between, but ideally the cupboard is a little more stocked with players that have shown over the course of a season or two that they’re dependable in succeeding in most matchups.
Little faith in the safeties: With only one safety checking in, with Nick Coleman at #22, safety continues to look like a weak link in the defense. Having Alohi Gillman eligible could change that, but neither of the other potential candidates – Devin Studstill, Isaiah Robertson, or Jalen Elliott – received votes from our panel.
Stock Up
Shaun Crawford: I’ve always been a huge believer in what a healthy Crawford can do, and it appears he’s moving like both season-ending injuries never happened. If the coaches are confident enough to roll Crawford out without a limited snap count early, I’d put money on the junior to lead the cornerbacks in havoc.
Alex Bars: Fall camp heroics mean nothing until the opponents are wearing non-gold helmets, but Bars was a consistent standout praised by Kelly and others for his work at guard. He has the pedigree, experience, and skillset to be an all-conference caliber performer moving inside.
Jay Hayes: If you had to bet your mortgage on Hayes or Tillery being a real force on the defensive line this year, who would you pick? This is a little bit of a talent versus effort debate, but Hayes is plenty talented in his own right. I think it’s a close contest, so ranking Hayes as far down as 18 feels low to me compared to where I think he ends up at the end of the year.
Stock Down
Alize Mack: Hamstring injuries are scary, and if Mack is hampered for an extended amount of time he’ll have a tough time validating top 10 player status. Add in Durham Smythe, Cole Kmet, and Brock Wright competing for snaps, and I think there’s a lot of potential obstacles for Mack to live up to his ranking.
Chase Claypool: This feels to me like more of a hope than realistic ranking at #19 (I’m biased – Claypool didn’t make my personal list at all). The Canadian sophomore is extremely talented, but he’s working with a frame similar to Miles Boykin without the benefit of more time in the program focusing on receiver. Add in the emergence of Cameron Smith, and I think Claypool has a better chance of ending up outside the top five Irish receivers in yardage than in.
Dexter Williams: My nomination of Williams here has virtually nothing to do with Williams and everything to do with Tony Jones Jr. There’s two risks here that would hurt Williams’ standing – first that Jones cuts into Williams carries and impact, and second that he even possibly surpasses Williams as the #2 option at running back.
I love it! I can’t wait for the season to start,
If Nick Coleman is our best safety this year, well, yikes.
And if he’s not, also yikes.
Maybe it’s camp hype or my predilection toward higher-floor players over higher-ceiling players, but I’d have pounded the table for Myles Boykin making the list. I’m thinking he could be our third-most productive receiver, with slot receivers eating each others’ lunch to a degree.
Meh, outside of the Red Zone I actually hope we don’t see him that much. There are too many guys (high ceiling guys) who could provide so much more to this offense.
My list:
1. Nelson
2. Morgan
3. St. Brown
4. Wimbush
5. Adams
6. McGlinchey
7. Mack
8. Love
9. Stepherson
10. Martini
11. Crawford
12. Mustipher
13. D. Hayes
14. Claypool
15. Tillery
16. Tranquill
17. Sanders
18. D. Williams
19. Watkins
20. Bars
21. Ewell
22. Kraemer
23. Finke
24. Coney
25. Tagovailoa-Amosa
Comments coming henceforth…
Rate Glinch a little lower than most just because I don’t think he’s 100% proven to be an elite tackle and he’ll be facing some really good linemen this year.
No safeties in my list.
I pretty much don’t like any of my picks from 16 to 19, I feel like by years end they could be in a far different place.
Ewell was obviously submitted prior to fall camp.
Since camp has started it would seem Bars should be higher. Kmet might be a dark horse pick. I might want to add Vaughn but I’m generally afraid to rank corners too high. Even Love at 8 seems crazy.
I think the problem with all the returning receivers with the exception of St. Brown is route running. Smith, Canteen and the freshmen can’t be evaluated.
I think McKinley may top Claypool and Boykin, but you are hearing very little of any of the three of them through fall camp. In spring they are all we heard about. We hear little about Stepherson other than he can’t play on talent alone, and I think the next comment I hear on Canteen will be the first.
As for safeties, one of Studstill, Eliot or Robertson will emerge. After watching Coleman chase WRs down the field in the early part of last year, hard to believe he is now the starting SS. He should have relatively good cover skills in that position though. So if you go with Love and Coleman at S, we would have 4 DBs capable of man-to-man coverage. I think Watkins and Vaughn could both have lock-down potential. Could make blitzing more doable, which should help cover any shortcoming on the back 4.