This is what the 2017 ND football team hath wrought: The Irish just tied the school record for offense in a game, and the vast majority of ND’s fan base is annoyed with the result of what was a 48-37 win over Wake Forest.
Unfortunately, it probably won’t matter to many on the outside that this game was essentially in garbage time for a quarter and a half and that Wake is really good at garbage-time offense. The optics aren’t great. The good news is that ND was probably long overdue for a ‘stinker’ by their standards. If it comes today and not next Saturday, that should work out just fine.
Full disclosure: My day job kept me from watching the first half. I had to dig up a shoddy webstream of the ND student radio broadcast. (To put it as nicely as I can, those guys haven’t come close to scratching their ceiling as broadcasters.) However, most of what I heard was good.
No Adams? No problem
Well, we all wanted Josh Adams to win the Heisman Trophy. It seems hard to believe that will happen after an injury knocked him out of the game and ND made the wise move to keep him out, even after he was medically cleared, due to the Irish’s big lead. What this game did show off was that ND has a pretty impressive amount of depth. Not many offenses set school yardage records while playing without their best players.
Five different Irish ran for 30+ yard gains, and none of them were Adams. Chase Claypool put on a monster show, going for nearly 200 yards receiving. Tony Jones Jr. and Deon McIntosh both showed that they’re more than capable. Ian Book even came in and performed well in extended duty. #33Trucking might not win a Heisman, but the motto is very fitting.
It’s very fortunate that Adams appeared to be alright and that Brandon Wimbush was able to return to the game after taking a shot at the goal line late in the first half. Both, you’d imagine, will be good to go for next week’s battle at Miami, which was just announced as a Saturday Night Football telecast.
Brandon Wimbush is becoming a monster
Wake Forest caveats apply, but Brandon Wimbush was absolutely terrific today. He only completed 50% of his passes, but in the second half alone I saw a few drops. And in any case, 50% is less troubling when you’re going for over 9 yards per attempt.
And on the ground? My goodness. I told my wife that the difference between Wimbush and our old pal Everett Golson was that Golson could run if he had to. Wimbush can run whenever he wants. I wasn’t watching during the Tony Rice era, so it’s safe to say Wimbush is the best running QB I’ve ever seen at ND. He had 110 rushing yards.
The drive Wimbush helped put together at the end of the second quarter, when he led the Irish 99.87 yards down the field for a backbreaking score, was a thing of beauty and exactly what ND fans wanted to see from their quarterback.
Brian Kelly said postgame that Wimbush’s injury was a ‘hand contusion’. One would assume that he’ll be fine next week.
Let’s just not talk about the defense
As I said, a stinker was probably due, especially from a defensive unit that had played so impressively the past 2 weeks in particular. Let’s just chalk up Wake Forest’s mostly garbage-time offensive success to familiarity with Mike Elko’s system and never speak of it again.
Don’t look now, but the carnage is coming
An 11-1 ND would probably have an excellent argument for getting in the College Football Playoff regardless of what else happened. But some chaos never hurts. While not everything good that could’ve happened today did (NC State…illegal shift…c’mon man), the B1G East essentially eliminated itself with Ohio State’s befuddling no-show at Iowa and Michigan State (hey, we remember you!) edging Penn State at the buzzer. The entire conference is basically down to Wisconsin – who even at 13-0 would have a pastry-soft resume given what’s going on out East. With the Pac-12 all but eliminated as it is, a second league playing itself out would put ND in a very enviable position going forward. There are 3 games to go, and those are the most important. I think the Irish will get in if they win them all.
(Photo credit: USA Today)
I had no problem with the NC State illegal shift call. It was the right call, and frankly I saw it and knew the flag was coming even before it was thrown. I still think the game helped us (just not as much as it could have). The “common opponents” factor just gave us a huge boost that NC State took Clemson to the wire, but couldn’t come close to hanging with us.
Yeah not really a bad thing except that Clempson would be a tougher playoff draw than anyone they would have let in with a loss.
Oh, the call was correct. It was just such a silly error and with awful timing obviously.
I wasn’t in the slack convo, but was it just me, or did Dexter give away a TD? It looked like he was running at only about 60% speed thinking the closest defender was the guy to his left (and behind), and so instead of turning on the jets and streaking for a long TD he gets tackled by a guy directly behind him that he didn’t know was there *and* comes up gimpy to boot. Seriously, how hard is it to put one’s head down and just run?
Pretty sure he pulled up with something during that run. I don’t remember him getting many (if any) carries after that.
Agree on this. Something was clearly wrong. I thought that even before the long run.
He definitely pulled up. I really hope he’s alright.
In Kelly’s press conference, he said Williams aggravated something on that run, so he wasn’t showboating. Too bad because a healthy Dexter takes that one to the house.
Well as always very sorry to hear that he’s still dealing with injuries, but happy to know it wasn’t because of showboating. Thanks for the responses all.
Defense definitely had a stinker. I ended up being able to watch most of the game. Think I read that BK said Adams wasn’t in concussion protocol but had a rough week or something. “Lot of exams this week” is what I believe he said…which is the most ND thing ever lol. Anyway – a win is a win I guess. Clemson and OU seem to be biggest obstacles to our playoff path now. Would’ve been fantastic if one (or both!) would’ve lost. Oh well – just keep winning, it’ll work itself out.
Looking at this game and how poor the defense played. Maybe it will be a blessing because it will give the coaches a ton of film to critique. I did not see them being able to move the ball with the ease in which they did. Wake is a really good tough nosed football team The game was really never in jeopardy though but it was still a terrible effort on defense. Elko can’t be happy. Regardless, I don’t see the committee dropping us what so over.
Wimbush showed a ton of heart today. Kelly said he tried to keep him out in the second half but Wimbush would simply not allow it. He insisted on coming back into the game. He was easily the best player on the field today. He is showing that he is getting better from the pocket. Wimbush was a liability throwing the ball earlier this season. Thats no longer the case as BK talked about after the game. He has quickly removed that label. What I Iike is unless a straight run play is called for him. He will stand tall in the pocket, eyes always up looking to make a play from the the pocket. He will wait until the absolute last second to take off. Despite this he still went for over a hundred yards rushing. Wimbush had a phenomenal game today.
Kelly also said that Adams was cleared to play as we all know but he also said he was off today. It’s a shame Adams didn’t play. He could have put up some monster numbers today. Hopefully he puts this behind him because Miami isn’t going to be easy at all. They are going to be undefeated and ready for us. Can’t wait for it
I cannot second hard enough your comments on Winbush. He was f’ING laser sharp in some pretty nasty conditions against a pretty tough defense. Oh and he looked like Michael Vick running the ball. Second straight week he has been absolutely lethal throwing the ball. All those daMN drops tO’Day and last week. Hard to believe he’s at 50% these past two weeks. He has just been dealing.
Can we go take Miamis turnover chain from them next week please.
Miami looks kind of like the 2012 Irish. Great defense with a lot of close calls against inferior teams.
I like our chances. No gimmicks with this Irish team needed.
Had a similar thought. Last week against UNC was their Pitt game, lucky to win.
I like the Solid Verbal’s description of Miami as a “luck runs out” team. They keep winning, but every week it seems like they have to pull a victory out of their ass, and at some point you’re not going to be able to.
The best description of them I’ve seen is “2012 Notre Dame”. Hopefully the comparison ends this week rather than continuing until they get destroyed by Bama in the Championship game…
Weird comments about Adams. I’m not faulting him or the staff but it seems odd. If he’s not 100% then rest him, but he got five carries first. He’s not hurt but then why isn’t he 100%? And how many games has he played when he’s not 100%? Lots. So I don’t get it. If he’s so burned out then why’s he over on the sideline looking like he’s trying to loosen up? Just give him the day off. If you’re thinking about putting him in if the game gets close it might be better to roll with Tjj or deon, who are apparently 100%.
i agree the comments were very weird. He didn’t have a concussion and wasn’t even put in the concussion protocol, but he just didn’t feel right and wasn’t 100%. I couldn’t follow either. maybe he had a little head cold. maybe he had a head cold and took some sudafed. but in that case i think he would have rushed for like 300 yards and killed literally everyone on the field. Man that Sudafed makes me crazy. Like psychotic. It’s bad. Am i the only one?
I’m getting more and more worried that Mouth set up an international amphetamine smuggling operation during his abscence from the blog.
Has your 18 Stripes Premium account basically become a wine of the month club for hard drugs too?
Why do you think Im up here in Canada right now?
They did mention on the broadcast that Adams went into the medical tent at some point, so they were definitely checking him for something. At that point and with the game heading squarely in our direction, I think the staff made the conservative and correct call to give him a rest. Much important to have him 100% for Miami than racking up yards against Wake.
Things that Adams, who seems like a quiet guy that doesn’t want the spotlight, has had occur in the last week+
-Beat NC State handily
-Had his team authoritatively named #3 in the country.
-Had his school start a national campaign for him to win the most prestigious individual award in all of football.
-Celebrated his 21st birthday
-Had a bunch of exams (apparently)
I want to see him locked in and ready to go every week, but I can understand why it might not be the case for a kid that’s just 21.
ADAMS WAS HUNGOVER FOR THE GAME AND WIMBUSH BROKE HIS HAD AT FINNYS ON FRIDAY, KELLY HAS LOST CONTROL OF THE TEAM
I also think the comments were weird, and my best guess is nothing was really wrong with Adams. I think Kelly decided to be conservative and keep him out of the game but didn’t want to openly harm his Heisman chances. Not the best timing when the campaigning is in full swing but clearly our offense was fine without him.
Also for whatever reason Kelly had been cagier this season about injuries. After the NC game he admitted Wimbush was never going to play after playing dumb all week.
The “prevent” defense in the second half didn’t prevent much. Our secondary has me worried, but I think we can rush the QB more effectively in a non-prevent formation.
The bottom line vs. Miami is that if we deserve to be in the playoff we’ll win.
I’m not too worried about the secondary really. Defense just had a bad game. Bad weather, prime spot for a letdown after NCSt and before Miami. Kind of just meh all around defensively. This is the second Miami game I’ve watched now. I’m really not that impressed. They have some good athletes for sure, but I don’t know if they can score consistently. Defense seems good but VT is not doing itself any favors. Agree with your bottom line though.
Miami has looked like warmed over dog feces all year. This is the best game they’ve played by far. If they play like this, it will be a game for a bit. If they play like every other game, we’ll win by 35.
It seems you’ve angered Mark Richt’s mom.
Maw Richt has that 18S After Dark subscription.
This needs more upvotes, folks.
Regarding the defense, to what extent do you think Clawson knew exactly how to attack this defense? I was wondering that during the game. I don’t know enough about Wake to know if they changed much during this game relative to earlier.
Of course, the downside to this theory is that this would have given a blueprint to any other team to study. So, maybe we should hope that it was just a blah day for us.
Thinking the exact same thing.
That’s probably part of it, although I still think we failed to execute. They were also holding all over the place and I don’t think it was called once.
So….I was wrong about Miami getting killed by VT. They’ve done their bit to make next week HYPE. Hopefully they got it all out of their system tonight.
KG you watching this VT game? Curious what you think about Miami. I honestly just can’t really tell how good they are. I know nothing about VT aside from them being 7-1 but they don’t look good tonight. Miami is definitely playing well but like I said above, VT not doing itself any favors here.
VT is solidly meh, from what I’ve seen. 2nd Tier ACC, which means possibly could win the division and be a sacrifice to Clemson in the ACCCG. (Don’t ask me which division is which). I think Miami is awful, but I think they’re super hyped to play an in-division foe, the only one who can keep them out of the ACCCG. Whether that translates to next week as well, who knows. They’ve looked tissue paper soft all year. Before this game, I’d have said we’d beat them worse than USC. I still think we win, but I”m less confident in a true beatdown.
Also, Herbstreit just said we were undefeated. Dipstick.
Lol GAMEDAY GONNA BE SO HYPE WITH TWO UNDEFEATED TEAMS
Miami looking like Miami of old with the roughing the passer well after the throw.
Uh, and that should have been a personal foul on the hit on the VT QB after the interception, if Max Redfield against Michigan got one.
Yea looking a little undisciplined here at the end
HE JUST SAID IT AGAIN! Fowler had to correct him.
I basically consider us undefeated as well
Miami has athletes but not much discipline.
glad to see SC not looking quite so toothless anymore
Yeah, they look like men vs boys tonight both sides of the ball. Makes our crushing them look even better, cause they look awesome tonight against what’s been a hot Arizona team.
Feels good to think this might have been our worst performance of the year and we beat a (slightly, but still) above-average P5 team by 11 while setting an all-time offense record.
Yeah, I remember when our letdown games were things like losing to Syracuse on senior day or getting blown out by Arizona State. I’ll gladly take a sloppy game that results in a backdoor cover.
Losing to Syracuse on *my* senior day.
Not that I’m bitter.
As a fellow Weis victim, I feel you.
We lost to UConn on my senior day, but luckily I was able to get drunk enough that I don’t actually recall that game.
Though Pete Sampson has a very not correct take here: https://twitter.com/PeteSampson_/status/927022907624165377
The FiveThirtyEight model (yes yes, I know, it has some issues, but it’s still better than anything else we plebes can access) has barely budged in terms of ND’s playoff odds – I believe it had ND at 26% before today, and if USC wins ND will be back at 26% after today. Wisconsin, Clemson, Oklahoma and TCU winning today conjunctively basically counterbalanced all the good things that happened, so overall today was a wash from the ND playoff perspective. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Just keep winning, I suppose, at let the chips fall as they may. I do think getting Ohio State out of the playoff picture makes things easier in the event that we do make the playoff, so we got that going for us.
To be fair to Pete, this was a very good week to keep ND in the top 4 for the next set of rankings (and the set of rankings after that, provided we beat Miami). It was not a very good week for the overall ND positioning over the longer-term, though; in that regard, it was probably a wash.
Rooting interest next week, in chronological order, plus my subjective ranking of plausibility:
Stanford over Washington (late Friday night) – possible, though looks like UW found another gear again last night
Michigan State over Ohio State (noon) – Ohio State might kill them to make up for their poor showing this week. Let’s hope JT Barrett’s spirit is broken.
Auburn over Georgia (3:30) – definitely possible. Sneaky-important game for us.
Florida State over Clemson (3:30) – This is not happening, and unless I hear it is close at the end I will not even turn this game on so as to avoid having to think about cheering for the Noles.
Mississippi State over Bama (7pm) – Not happening. Next.
TCU over Oklahoma (8pm) – Unlikely, but possible. Basically, just needs whoever wins this game to lose the Big 12 championship game. Rooting interest tie goes to the team that didn’t pick up a big non-conference win (Arkansas doesn’t count)
ND over Miami (8pm) – let’s get it.
I actually think we want OSU to win. OSU/MSU is for the B1G Title Bid and all that REALLY matters out of the B1G anymore is that Wisconsin takes an L. Despite the fact that MSU may beat OSU next weekend, OSU is the better team and has the better shot at knocking off Wisconsin in the Badgers first game against a real opponent.
Hm, possibly. It really depends on whether Wisconsin beats Michigan, because if they do and we need somebody else to win the B1G championship game, you’re absolutely correct. FiveThirtyEight thinks, though, all other things being equal, Michigan State winning the game is (marginally) better for us, presumably for resume-building purposes. Who to cheer for in that game is one of the closer calls w/r/t ND benefit of ranked games next week, though.
I think either OSU or MSU would beat Wisconsin. Ideally, Iowa beats Wisconsin in two weeks after Wisconsin beats Michigan this week by 60.
Although if Michigan beats Wisconsin, I guess I could live with that as well.
“Although if Michigan beats Wisconsin, I guess I could live with that as well.”
No you can’t. Trust me.
Can we talk about Iowa? Like “what do we talk about when we talk about Iowa?” kind of talk. Serious folks. Where in the hell did 55-24 over tOSU come from?
Has Iowa ever scored 55 points before? Have they ever even won a game when allowing 24?
Yes yes EXACTLY. This is exactly the kind of talk I wanted to have. Honest. Bracing. No taboos, not afraid to ask the tough Iowa questions. Thank you juicebox.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2EwSP_yPa0w
“so is it like when they give the ball to sick kids and let them score touchdowns because they feel sorry for them?”
For what it’s worth, MSU is a 14.5 pt dog against OSU this weekend. The betting public would tell you there is a significant difference in the chances that Wisconsin loses in the B1G title game if they play MSU vs if they play OSU. I think MSU can beat Wisco, but the odds are better in our favor if OSU wins this weekend.
Also, I’m with you, I think Wisco will lose at some point, but I’m all for the safety of rooting for them to lose multiple times (to Minnesota if possible?)
The offense is the real deal, it’s nice to expect them to score each time we get the ball. The oline is living up to its billing at last, and that’s the special sauce that makes things go.
Having said that, I do think Wimbush was erratic, late on some throws and off target a bit too often. Still a terrific qb and 2 of his good long throws were bad drops that would have set up touchdowns. St Brown in particular needs to be a tougher receiver.
Defense kind of melted at the end, which was scary. I’m not buying the excuse that Wake knows the defense. Colman missed tackles all game long. Tranquil and Tillery had weak games too. Hopefully it was a combination of big lead and too much bend don’t break and they’ll be back in form at Miami.
Must, must must, must beat Miami. Bring your A games guys.
Defense gave up a 80+ yard drive at the very beginning of the game too. Held them to 3, but still. The problem was more than just giving up a couple garbage time TDs to make it look closer than it was. I agree with you about out of position, sloppy tackling, and bad angles. Hopefully they pull their heads out before a big game next week
Just woke up over here; AFN is replaying the game. Agree with most above, and I confess last night in the 4th Q I threw a pillow and gave voice to some quite bad words; but on replay the D did have a few very good series earlier on (including the 3 and out to open the second half) which contributed to the win in a major way, before they went into that weird slump. I like the “Elko’s prevent defense tendencies too well known to his old boss” theory. Sort of.
Anyway — all teams have let down games (check out tOSU for latest example, oh happiness) and as was said so well above, how good it is that this defensive slump ended with an 11 point win over a good opponent.
Finally — I have a recipe for some happiness. Watch the replay after 10:00 to go in the 3Q only looking at when we have the ball. Very much fun — maybe the best play to savor is when Brandon drags their defensive middle linebacker three yards for a key first down. He got the game ball BK said, and he really deserved it. Very tough kid.
Ian Book pretty damn good QB as well!
I would pay like 50 francs (are those still a thing?) to see angry More Noise throwing pillows and cursing en francais. “Zut alors! Merde! Merde! Merde! Merde! Merde! Merde! Merde!” Je suis desole, More Noise–pas sûr pour le travail!
Surprised so many ND fans are down on this performance. Wake is perfectly decent, 24th in S&P+ (ahead of NC State) and Wolford is having a really good year. This always looked like a letdown spot after two big games and before Miami but ND was in control throughout.
Wimbush continues to improve enough to make you shrug off the completion percentage while lighting it up on the ground and the rest of the rushing attack didn’t miss a beat without Adams. Defense could have played better but Wake had every reason not to get embarrassed and we were still less than a minute away from covering.
Next week will be awesome. Can’t remember a top ten matchup recently that didn’t make me pretty nervous as an Irish fan. Miami could continue its magical run but this team is as set as any to just take care of business.
It’s the having to win pretty part that makes me nervous. I’m thrilled with the win, and the play this season. I just know there are eyes on the team that are comparing the actual play of the game as well as the score.
Yes, but it was fine in that regard. Control of the game throughout, 700+ yards with our Heisman candidate on the bench. When Clemson scrapes by a team we beat last week by a lot and no one can say our defensive performance was worse than what happened in Bedlam. UGA and Bama both had comparable wins, just at lower scores. The other games mattered more, and we got some help, but not all the help we wanted.
Yeah, “bad” for our D is still 20 points better than average for Oklahoma’s.
Too many people are concerned with #stylepoints. It doesnt matter anymore. We have too many fans that are still in BCS mode where that kind of crap mattered
I think I’m with you MLafort. What’s gotten lost on Irish fans I think is that we absolutely torched a very good defense. We scored 48 and it really looked like we could have picked our score. Receivers dropped some long ones that hit them in the hands. And the coaching staff kind of unnecessarily went for it on 4th and failed a couple times. I actually don’t dislike the decision to go for it on those 4th downs that much, but they should have treated 3rd down like they had the extra down and gotten some positive momentum and a couple yards on 3rd. Defense–the controversial 5 factors question will be when garbage time began. Seems like it could have been late 3rd quarter, but then the game gets closer after that. Not close enough to have been in doubt, but two scores close. We held them to 10 points for like 2.75 quarters, so I’m not that down on them. It’s just they lost focus late.
It should be a given that you are going for it on 4th and 2 from the 40 (and it correctly has been this season with BK), so it annoys me when coaches don’t seem to take that into account on 3rd down play calling.
Preaching to the choir, brother.
Man juicebox, you and I are really in sync today, brother.
Internet high five. I see you.
Although…. I also wouldn’t mind trying to pin them deep. But either or, man. Either treat 3rd down like you know you’re going for it on 4th and get some positive momentum and a few yards, or punt it. No reason to try to get the whole 5 yards on 3rd if you know you’re going for it. Friggin QB sneak it twice for all I care.
I think it is all the HYPEness in my life now. You inspired me to increase the HYPE and it is paying dividends.
Did this torpedo #33Trucking? I was thinking that he still has a shot with a big game at Miami and maybe Stanford. Am I just being a ridiculous homer in thinking that?
I agree with earlier comments about how odd the situation is. They just handed out 10,000 free hats for a Heisman campaign and then just sat him because nothing was really wrong but he needed a rest. Whaaaa? Unfortunately, I worry that Josh will face many questions about durability in the draft.
Yes, and no. Barkley, Barrett and Love all tanked their campaign much more this weekend. But Adam’s season total stats continue to be hurt by all the rest he’s getting (which as a team first, winning is the goal fan, I’m fine with). I think he has a shot, but only if others continue to fail, I don’t think he can pass anyone by performance alone at this point. Frankly unless Baker is the *cause* of future losses, I don’t see him falling off the podium at this point.
Yeah I’m betting on Mayfield at this point.
I don’t think it torpedoed it, but Adams has a tough climb. Imo he’s a “boring” candidate (consistent, fast, but not many highlight moments). While boring occasionally wins (eg Mark Ingram) it seems to need a let down from everyone else.
Not many highlight moments? How many 60+ TD runs does he have again?
Yes, but Heisman winners usually have draw-dropping moments that voters remember. I can think of Reggie Bush vs Fresno State, Manziel vs Alabama, Newton vs Florida, L. Jackson vs FSU, etc, just off the top of my head. To be clear, I’m not saying Adams doesn’t have his moments, but long runs up the middle don’t excite most people. The Heisman trophy is a beauty pageant award in many ways.
*jaw-dropping
Haha, this is possibly the best fat-finger moment in the history of OFD/18S. And I say that completely without hyperbole.
I move to immediately add “draw-dropping” to the 18S lexicon.
I feel like he could have moved himself from someone people were mentioning to a legitimate top 3 with another big game today, especially with Barkley, Barrett and Love sort of playing themselves out as mentioned above. I feel that, along with other players having lackluster performances, Baker Mayfield played himself into the trophy today. He’ll be hard, if not impossible, to catch from here on out.
The other thing that I haven’t heard mentioned by talking heads yet, but I thought of and could take hold, is that anyone can run behind this line, as demonstrated by our 380 yds rushing without Adams
EH, Mayfield is a product of the “defense-optional” conference he plays in. It’s a joke
I don’t think it hurt him that much, although I never really thought Adams had more than an outside shot at winning the Heisman. I think he deserves it, because he’s an absolute monster on the field who has only been slowed by 1) the best defense in the country, and 2) injury. As to the argument that anyone can run behind our line, anyone can, to an extent (see: our 4th string back putting up 5.5 YPC), but no one else on the roster has the game breaking ability that Adams possesses. We had something like three long runs where the running back was caught from behind; Adams takes those to the house, and then we’re taking about some preposterous 800 yard day for the offense.
That being said, he was a late entry into the Heisman race, and would always have to deal with the sports media who shifted away from Darnold and began abusing themselves weekly to highlights of Barkley and Mayfield. I fully expect that jackass from the dirt burglars to get it, and while that’s annoying, at least it prevents something good from happening to a program that facing the death penalty a few years ago for harboring a serial pedophile.
Any predictions about Miami in the polls? I think the top 5 are unchanged, but I could see Miami jumping Wisconsin and possibly TCU as well.
Random comments from the weekend:
1.Khalil Tate is unreal. Glad to see SC win for our sake, but he looks like he could be the next Cam Newton.
2. I’m really enjoying ESPN’s narrative around “the Big10 is already out the playoffs.” They are not even pretending to respect Wisconsin, haha.
Wiscy will lose to Michigan or Iowa. If they don’t, they’ll be unbeaten with a couple pretty good wins and will be in. They’ll be out with 1 loss, I think.
Our chief competitors are 1 loss Clemson, 1 loss XII champ, especially if it’s OU, and 13-0 Wisconsin. 12-1 Washington could come on strong at the end if they play well to finish the season. UGA and Bama both getting in hurts us too. I’m rooting for Auburn to beat one or both of them
After yesterday’s losses for OSU & PSU, I think that really hurts a 13-0 Wisconsin’s argument. Their best win would be in the B10 Championship over a team with at least 2 losses. A few more teams ahead of UW need to lose before a 13-0 UW gets in, in my opinion.
I think the committee will seriously ding Oklahoma for the absence of defense. And now their marquis win (tOSU) ain’t looking that great. So what do they have? Wins over Texas and a mediocre, no-defense-playing Okie Light. I don’t think the committee will be that impressed by the end of the year.
They will get TCU this week. Then probably TCU again in the Big12 championship. TCU should fairly easily end up with 10 wins, OSU could drop one to KSU or ISU, but could also have 10 wins.
And even though that tOSU win isn’t looking great, they are still probably favorites to win the B1G.
Props to Miami for turning what was already a big game into a monster next week. With the win over VT, they probably will jump to #6 (ahead of Wisc/TCU and PSU/OSU), making this a fun #3 vs #6 game. They *MIGHT* even jump Oklahoma or Clemson, which will actually be a really interesting data point from the committee. Last week the committee clearly said that 8-0 while beating a bunch of nobodies is not as good as 7-1 but beating multiple high end teams. Now we have Miami at 9-0, beating one good team (VT) vs Oklahoma at 8-1 with wins over Oklahoma St/Ohio St and Clemson at 8-1 with wins vs Auburn/NC State/VT. Is beating Auburn/NC State and losing to Cuse better or worse than not losing to anyone but not notching the good wins? We shall see on Tuesday…
This is an interesting perspective.
Nit: Miami is 8-0, they cancelled a bodybag game early in the season thanks to the real hurricane. Otherwise, great points. They’re clearly ahead of Wisconsin now. I don’t think they can jump Clemson – three quality wins and an excusable loss trump one of the same quality wins – but it’ll be very interesting to see what happens vis-a-vis Oklahoma. I’m guessing they’ll still stay above Miami but it’s really hard to call.
I’m not sure, but I get the sense that the committee is sometimes reluctant to bump a team too much if their next game is a big one. Like, hey, we’re going to get another really good data point in a few days, so let’s just hold off on that. That makes me think Miami is more likely to stay behind Oklahoma. But it’s close, for sure.
I think after we demolish Thug U next week, nothing anyone could do will displace us if we win out. Everyone below us, OU, Wiscy, Clem, TCU will all be playing for #4 and hoping that the loser of the SECCG will get knocked out. I dont see a scenario where ND doesnt have a massively stronger resume after next week than anyone else in CFB
Yea, totally disagree. Undef Wisconsin, Clemson, Oklahoma, and 1L Georgia could/will all be ahead of us.
Oklahoma kind of had a mixed day yesterday. They picked up the W in Stillwater, but their lone loss just picked up another loss and their marquee win to date (other than Ok State) picked up an embarrassing loss. Basically, Oklahoma hates the state of Iowa today.
Heh, I didn’t make the Iowa connection. That’s funny.
I don’t think the Iowa/OSU game will hurt Oklahoma all that much. Yes, it moves OSU off the “elite win” category, but assuming OSU finishes at least 2-1, they’ll still be highly ranked (~15-20, if not better) as everyone else around them also picks up Ls.
And now to playoff comparisons. Assuming each team wins out (and inferring what that means for some of our opponents, who would be ahead? (* denotes hasn’t happened yet)
ND – W vs Miami* (2Ls), NC State (~3L), USC (3L), MSU (3L), Stanford* (4-5L), L to Georgia
Oklahoma – W vs OSU (2-3L), Ok St (2L), TCU* (3L), TCU* (3L), West Virginia* (4-5L), L to Iowa St
That’s awfully close…Certainly what our opponents all do the rest of the way (does Miami hang with/beat Clemson? Does NC St drop another game? Does OSU/MSU win next week and does OSU beat Wisco or does OSU drop a 3rd or 4th game?), but anyone telling you Oklahoma has no shot to be above 11-1 ND is wearing some pretty awesome rose colored glasses.
For the record, you can do the same exercise with Clemson, Georgia, Wisconsin and TCU. Washington should land behind us, but that’s legitimately the only conf champ that has a very limited shot to pass us.
Yeah, if it comes down to 1-loss Oklahoma or 1-loss Clemson vs. us, and the standard for us to make it is that we have to be “unequivocally” better than them, we’re not getting in based on resume. It will have to be eye test, and the Committee has not had a scenario where they used the eye test+that standard applied and a team was deemed “unequivocally” better than a conference champ (Ohio State had a better resume than Penn State last year).
So, in short, I don’t think we’d get in over Clemson or Oklahoma. The “unequivocal” standard would not apply to UGA, so that would be a closer call (our probably slightly better resume plus not having lost recently vs. their actually having beaten us).
Totally disagree with your totally disagreement. The committee has already declared that ND is better in their eyes than all the teams you mentioned. Undef Wiscy still has no stunning victories. They have a decent one in the B10 Title, but thatll be against a “meh” team with a “meh” record. Clemson is close, but they barely squeaked by a team we crushed. OU has barely squeaked by multiple teams and our beatdown of Miami this weekend will get much more visibility than Bedlam did.
The issue is that none of the rankings systems until the last one (including, of course, the current set of rankings) will incorporate the standard by which we need to be deemed better than the conference champions, which is that we need to be “unequivocally” better. Once that is factored in, the rankings will shuffle.
Doesn’t matter where we are now. All of those teams will gain more big victories over the course of the rest of the season than we will. Oklahoma already got one. Clemson will get the same Miami one we get (and Miami will be a 2L team after it, same as OSU).
Yeah, it does matter where we are. It also matters who is BEHIND us because it shows you how the committee has deemed certain teams with the “eye test.” You say other teams will get bigger wins, so will we. We will get the biggest of them as well this week and the momentum of us beating an UNDEFEATED THUG team on gameday location in primetime will be bigger than Clem doing it the next week with no one paying attention. It will give us upward momentum that will be hard to stop. We will look better beating them than Clem will. But the issue isnt “is Clem better than us,” we just have to get in. The committee has said that at this point ND is considerably better than anyone besides Clemson. It will take a loss for us to be considered below that.
Unfortunately, the current rankings don’t matter that much beyond reflecting what has happened to this point. The Committee doesn’t appear to use the past week’s ranking as a starting point like the polls do. In 2014, TCU won a game 55-3 and dropped from 4rd to 6th between the second-to-last and final rankings. Like Ohio State that year, Clemson and Oklahoma will have more opportunity towards the end of the year to make a statement than ND does. The Stanford game will not be viewed as a quality win unless they beat Washington, and even if that is the case it won’t be as big of a win as conference championship games.
I would say “fortunately” the current rankings don’t matter. Obviously for ND, this year, that isn’t great. But overall these rankings are soooo much better than the AP poll since each week they look at the entirely of a teams resume, not just if they should drop because they lost.
Yes, agreed with that wholeheartedly. I just meant unfortunately from ND’s perspective in this particular instance.
There’s no such thing as momentum. And the committee doesn’t watch gameday like a rabid fan, frothing at the mouth. Also, nobody ever said anything about “considerable.” In fact, they said that 3-10 was incredibly close. Oh, and when Clemson beats Miami, it will be in the ACC title game with only 3 other meaningful games being played all weekend.
I’m all for the optimistic fan schtick, but c’mon…
I do! This requires just about everything to go wrong for us other than winning our own games, but it’s a very plausible scenario: Let’s say for the sake of argument that UGA loses the SECCG close but otherwise wins out. UW demolishes Stanford on Friday and then beats USC in the Pac-12 champ game (I’ll try to make this scenario realistic and say that USC will win its next two games). We beat Stanford by fewer than UW does. That will mean Stanford is a 7-5 football team, and will not be viewed by the Committee as a quality win for ND. Miami not only loses to us, but loses to Pitt in the season finale, and then gets beat by Clemson in the ACCCG by more than we beat them next week. Oklahoma wins out, and Ohio State wins the rest of its regular season games but loses to UW in the B1G championship game.
That leaves:
13-0 Bama (in)
13-0 Wisconsin (I feel confident enough that an undefeated P5 team is always going to make it, so they’re in. They may not be #2 in the rankings, but they’ll find a way to put them in the top-4)
Leaving two spots for: 12-1 Clemson, 12-1 UW, 12-1 Oklahoma, 12-1 UGA, 11-1 ND
Resumes would be (making a few assumptions re: other opponents, obviously):
Clemson: beat 8-4 Auburn (will likely be top-25), 10-2 VaTech, 8-4 NC State, 10-3 Miami, plus FSU/Wake/South Carolina could all be above-.500 P5 teams. Loss is close to .500 Syracuse team, but without starting QB.
UW: beat 7-5 Stanford, 9-3 Wazzou, 10-3 USC. Rest of their schedule kinda trash tbh. Loss is ugly game to .500ish Arizona State.
Oklahoma: beat 10-3 Ohio State, 10-3 TCU, 10-3 TCU again, 10-2 Oklahoma State, 8-4 West Virginia. Loss to 8-4 Iowa State.
UGA: beat 11-1 ND, 9-3 Mississippi State, 8-4 Auburn, 8-4 South Carolina, perhaps some other .500 or better teams. Loss close to #1 Alabama.
ND: beat 10-3 USC, 10-3 Miami, 9-3 Michigan State, 8-4 NC State, 7-5 Stanford… perhaps some other .500 or better teams. Lose close to #[?] Georgia.
If that all was the case, I think the top 4 would be (in order): Bama, Oklahoma, Clemson, Wisconsin. We’d probably be #5 or #6 depending about how they felt about the head-to-head with Georgia. I think the only one whose resume we’d be clearly better than is UW, and you need to remember that the standard is that we need to be “unequivocally better” than all the conference champs to get in over them.
The sole argument we’ll get in that plausible scenario that could lead the committee to say we’re “unequivocally” better is the eye test. So let’s beat the hell out of Miami.
With that said, though, it just takes a loss by two of those teams ahead of us to basically lock up a playoff spot for an 11-1 ND, so I’m not saying that not making the playoff is *likely* if we go 11-1. I’m just saying that we definitely do not control our own destiny right now.
I think all of that is some pretty solid analysis; I also think, as you allude to here, that it’s incredibly unlikely that we’ll end up in that scenario. Using ESPN’s FPI projections, the probability that only Wisconsin, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Washington will all win out is 1.5%.
I agree that, mathematically speaking, we don’t control our own destiny. Practically speaking, however, if we win out I think there’s a very high probability that we’ll be in.
Agree. I started writing down how/where I thought teams w:ould end (including all scenarios of 0L or 1L of a given team). Here was where I was last week and am now:
That’s a very good list, but IMO undefeated Wisconsin will get in over 1-loss Bama or Georgia (i.e., you should swap #4 and #5) based on the “unequivocal” standard. A team that just lost its most recent game is unlikely to be viewed as “unequivocally” better than an undefeated P5 team, weak schedule notwithstanding.
#4 is SEC Winning Georgia or Bama, but with a loss to Auburn on their resume. At this point, I think they’d get the nod over Wisconsin, but it’d be very close (as would a bunch of these).
Aha, I misread. Then we’re in agreement – just a question of who is the 3 and the 4 seed in that instance, not who is in. I don’t really have a sense of that, but I feel pretty confident in saying that at this point Wisconsin controls its own destiny notwithstanding its eh schedule, which you rankings imply.
And, to my point about last week and which your rankings so helpfully demonstrate, all-in-all it wasn’t that good of a week for ND – we just lost the possibility of Ohio State getting in over us. Sampson’s “this week was great!!!” take is just wrong.
I will say, I still think we’ll be alright. Oklahoma needs to win two games vs TCU, Wisconsin will finally have to play someone (anyone!) and I think we’re better than Clemson and that comparison will be very, very tight.
As dannan/hooks said below, it’s highly unlikely that we have six undefeated/1-loss teams, so if you told me we won out to get to 11-1, I’d say odds are good that we get in. That said, the other piece of “it’s unlikely that there are 6-7 teams with <= 1 loss" is that we also need to avoid being one of the ones that drops out! Go Irish, Beat Canes!
Agreed. I liked Andy Staples’ outlook here. This Miami game is so huge for both teams, just like old times!
https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/11/06/playoff-rankings-scenarios-georgia-auburn-washington
Seven 0 or 1 loss teams is highly unlikely.
Agreed, which is why 11-1 with the resume Notre Dame has would be enough to get them in. Dissecting scenarios is fun and all, but we’ll see how it plays out. ND is in great shape even if we can’t agree that it’s a lock at this point. As the #3 team in the committee, I find it very difficult to give any credence to getting jumped by 2 teams in the last month of the season if they knock off a undefeated Miami team on the road.