This off-season will provide a lot of opinions and content regarding quarterback Tyler Buchner and his future as the No. 1 quarterback for the Irish in 2022. Since the mobile Californian has already established he’s a big threat as a runner (7.30 yards per carry on 336 yards as a true freshman) a lot of attention surrounds Buchner’s passing ability, or lack thereof.
I wanted to address some of these issues as we await the Fiesta Bowl because the impression and judgement of Buchner’s passing ability has been one of the most peculiar things I’ve witness in recent memory.
He’s Not Playoff Caliber
Let’s start here. On the one hand, I get it. Notre Dame football and especially its fans believe the Irish to be close to the top teams in the country and at the ever-important position of quarterback also wish to see an experienced difference-maker taking snaps. Buchner isn’t that right now, so there’s some frustration and doubt.
As I’ll address below that’s not entirely fair to Buchner, certainly colors a lot of his critics and their perception of the quarterback today, while questioning what he could develop into down the road.
I find setting the bar this high for a young quarterback completely impractical and actually very strange. Buchner has a lot of enticing tools and has flashed more than enough potential to make it worth investing a lot in his future.
There was nothing about Buchner’s play that makes me believe his talent level specifically would lead to fewer than 10 wins next year. And if someone disagrees with that I would ask what are the realistic alternatives out there where we’re going to boil the 2022 schedule down to only Ohio State and Clemson with the rush to win those games absent Buchner being top priority?
Transfer Portal
If we include Ron Powlus III there will be 4 quarterbacks on scholarship in 2022. In terms of numbers you certainly don’t need a 5th body. Now, if you aren’t inclined to include Powlus as a realistic option than maybe you’d want to seek out another option.
If Notre Dame thinks its a playoff contender next year I understand the urge to bring in a proven commodity at quarterback. Yet, trying to figure out who would instantly jump Buchner–and frankly Pyne too–won’t be very easy.
2022 may be an ideal year for a serviceable grad transfer willing to sit on the bench and pick up a degree. Hope for Buchner’s future was immense when he was being recruited and given his role in 2021 I think he exceeded expectations after missing his senior season. To have a wandering eye for another talent against such a highly-rated young quarterback on campus doesn’t make a ton of sense.
Lack of Trust
In the larger picture, Buchner still hasn’t played a ton. In 10 games he’s run the ball 46 times and thrown the ball 35 times. Factor in some hand-offs to running backs and I’d guess he’s been under center for something like 100 to 125 snaps. That’s effectively 2 games worth of data. Looking at it through this lens of 2 games he’s just about averaged 150 yards passing and rushing with 3 touchdowns per contest. For a 13-game season this is 4,121 total yards and 39 touchdowns.
Obviously, projecting like this isn’t super realistic (Buchner probably won’t challenge the most rushing yards by any player for a season!) but it does show Buchner was productive in limited snaps. For whatever reason, critics have watched Buchner run more than he passes and made the logical leap towards the coaching staff not trusting him enough to pass more often.
However, Buchner was a collegiate true freshman who tweaked his throwing motion in 2020 and was coming off missing his senior season with an injury as a high school sophomore, as well. If he came out passing more it would’ve been either a case of prodigal talent or willful neglect of his strengths by the coaching staff.
Plus, Buchner is a great runner…why wouldn’t you have him run a lot?
This is all to say, what Buchner has achieved so far in 2021 seems extremely normal and healthy. That’s why I don’t understand some of the consternation about his play (and comparisons to Andrew Hendrix, I can’t believe it) and doubts about the future.
There’s Plenty of Passing Promise!
I went back and looked at all of Buchner’s 35 passes in the regular season. I generally liked what I remembered from Buchner’s arm and after another evaluation came away a little more impressed.
Here’s the spray chart of all his throws:
o = completion, x = incomplete, D = drop, I = interception.
Yes, Buchner wasn’t asked to do a lot outside of the short passing game.
I’m happy with his fundamentals and throwing motion. Remember, this was a big concern all of this past off-season and Buchner didn’t show glaring mechanical issues as a freshman. His delivery is a little unusual, but I really like the quick and compact release with a strong arm.
The big thing for me is accuracy. For most freshmen quarterbacks I would’ve expected some struggles with accuracy and a handful or more of throws that missed wildly. That we haven’t seen this from Buchner is reassuring.
I counted 4 drops** on the season, 2 pretty bad ones and 2 more iffy calls. Take this 3rd down throw for example:
Buchner doesn’t stride through the throw entirely and relies on his arm strength to push the ball out quickly. It is thrown behind Avery Davis even if he gets his hands on the ball. For a true freshman that’s not a terrible throw although you’d like something better. I also noticed at times Buchner struggled with touch, especially on medium-length throws where most of his errors came from during the season. A common trait for young quarterbacks, he tends to muscle the ball to the receiver on occasion.
Buchner has thrown 3 interceptions so far. One he was hit while throwing against Cincinnati, one was a miscommunication with fellow freshman Deion Colzie against Virginia Tech, and the last was a slightly high (but catchable IMO) ball to Logan Diggs also against the Hokies. Buchner also nearly threw another interception against Virginia Tech, too:
Here his timing and accuracy are just a little off on a throw he didn’t need to hurry nor throw with so much velocity. With more experience, you’d hope Buchner gets a lot better in this area.
The thing about this Virginia Tech game is while there were some struggles from Buchner it was also the game where he flashed some great moments and didn’t let bad moments affect his confidence. His good work included this beautiful deep ball to Kevin Austin:
While Buchner certainly relied on a lot of easy RPO dump-offs his small sample size with longer passes was pretty impressive, and the numbers don’t even include a couple of really well thrown longer throws that were flagged for pass interference.
The touch on longer throws certainly seems there, and it’s something that is difficult to teach. Later in the game against the Hokies, Buchner went back to Austin in 1-on-1 coverage:
That’s a well-placed ball where you’d like to see Austin fight through the corner for the chance at a touchdown. Some may see an incompletion or a blanketed receiver. My point is fundamentally, Buchner has shown he has the skills at a young age to complete these passes.
There are 4 more throws I want to highlight. First, this flag route to Davis coming out of the slot yet again versus Virginia Tech:
That’s an impressive and confident throw over the middle delivered on time and with accuracy behind linebackers who are back-pedaling in coverage.
Being mobile, Buchner has done a pretty good job being able to throw on the run and outside of the pocket.
Here he escapes a defender following a poor block by Diggs to pick up a first down throw to Austin. Coincidentally, Buchner’s interception to Diggs in this game looked very similar to this play.
This was the throw of the season for Buchner:
It’s early in a score-less game against your main rival and Buchner delivers an absolute dime in traffic down the seam to Michael Mayer. Once again, tucking it in behind the linebackers and this time with enough velocity to complete it in front of the defensive back.
Lastly, Buchner was cool and calm on this slant to Austin:
This is nothing special but it’s nice to see a true freshman complete a slant on 3rd down in a close game in the red zone. It was open and he delivered a nice accurate ball that nearly goes for the touchdown.
***
I’ll be honest, even if Buchner didn’t have good wheels and all we saw of him this year were his throws I’d still have plenty of excitement. That he can be a deadly runner just makes it better.
I think we know Buchner will largely live off short passes of the RPO variety, especially early in his career. His running ability will open up a lot more for the running backs and in turn will eventually create bigger throwing windows in the passing game.
To me, it’s just been odd seeing the reaction to Buchner in 2021. Most freshmen quarterbacks I’ve seen at Notre Dame do not look very good but the fact remains fans typically show little patience and are quick to write off young quarterbacks. The same thing happened for Ian Book when it became apparent Brandon Wimbush could barely throw a football anymore. There just wasn’t enough to like (supposedly) in Book’s small sample size and fans didn’t want to see him take over, mainly because he ceiling didn’t seem awfully high.
In contrast, Buchner seems like he’s ticking off the boxes of meeting expectations early as a top 100 player and the future at Notre Dame. His ceiling does seem high! If he’s a receiver or linebacker I’d say all Irish fans would be ecstatic right now but due to the nature of the position we evaluate quarterbacks in a much different light. Lorenzo Styles has 16 catches and hasn’t scored a touchdown yet but almost every Irish fan is elated for his future. Buchner has done more as a freshman at a tougher position and still there’s mixed reaction to his future.
The tools are absolutely there as a passer for Buchner. Do I think he’ll become a great quarterback? I think it’s highly likely he’ll develop into a very good player in college. It’s like a bigger Ian Book with better athleticism and a much better arm. And while the opener at Ohio State next season could be rough, once Buchner gets several starts under his belt I would expect some big things.
**From Buchner’s 14 incompletions we have 4 drops, 3 interceptions (1 in which he was hit while throwing), and one pass batted down at the line. That leaves just 7 other incompletions, one of which he was also hit while throwing. Looking strictly at incompletions doesn’t give you the full picture without including things like decision-making or taking sacks but there’s such a small amount of missed throws that to me are heavily outweighed by impressive throws from the young quarterback.
Man, count me in the camp of super bullish pro Buchner, aka SBPB.
thrown right into the quagmire, he displayed a lot of what you want in the signal caller. Moxie, toughness, competitive. Not too shabby for an 18 year old thrown right into the fray.
My question is, what level of production would have quelled any bench buchner thoughts? Usurp coan, throw for 3k, run for another 600, finish 6th in the heisman voting?
#teamSBPB
Well put, and I agree. I went to 2 games this season and carefully watched Buchner throw in warmups. Any “he can’t throw the ball” commentary almost certainly comes from those who haven’t really paid attention or seen him throw live. He has arm talent and can make all the throws, it’s just a matter of consistency, development and becoming a college level player.
Hell, Notre Dame spent the lead up to the 2017 and 2018 seasons trying to build up Wimbush and from this year’s Va Tech game and throwing an accurate RPO pass vs UNC alone, Buchner already has proven to be a more reliable and accurate passer than Wimbush ever was (and completion % reflect that too). Bright side is they are at least now ahead of the Wimbush days.
I don’t know if Buchner is a future first round pick and guy you can win with in the playoffs, but that big picture look isn’t terribly useful at this point either considering ND doesn’t have nearly enough top 100-150 players right now to be worried about truly being championship level right now as Freeman starts to build to that. I do think Buchner is a capable QB and exciting if he can develop and take the next steps to build upon his talent, the offense next season could be fun to watch grow.
I watched Wimbush warm up against BC (what a game!) and it was sooo obvious that he could not pass. He was hitting guys in the feet on casual warm up throws. So Buchner simply not sucking in warm ups is actually encouraging to hear!
His throwing motion reminds me of Johnny Unitas.
Wow, quite the compliment. A piece of family lore and a favorite story is about my grandpa playing semi-pro football with Unitas in Pittsburgh in the ’50s. The Steelers had drafted Unitas but cut him (whoops) he spent a year scraping by before he got picked up with the Colts and was off and on his way. Definitely regarded in my family as a real great guy and person!
Timely tweet this AM!
https://twitter.com/PeteSampson_/status/1472915723966156809?s=20
So, how do you feel about this? Would you be in favor of Slovis is we could bring him in? Do you think he’s a better QB than Buchner? Would sitting on the bench for another season be good for Buchner, or would it make him bolt?
Hmmm, I think the 10 scenarios of Slovis coming to ND all but 1 would end up poorly for Notre Dame.
Already sounds like the beat guys are reporting A) Slovis isn’t interested in ND and B) Buchner continues to impress so it’s a moot point, it seems.
That link isn’t opening in twitter for me. Does it say something about ND going after Slovis?
Related-ish. Looks like Bo Nix is ending up are Oregon.
Per the linked tweet, Slovis says ND contacted him as soon as he entered the portal. Nothing on his interest in that tweet.
Thanks. I definitely have no interest in Slovis. But the staff needs to do their due diligence around QBs. They know a lot more about talent evaluation and the team than I do.
Hey, don’t be so hard on yourself.
Yeah, you’re a tremendous slouch!
I’ve heard his gf plays soccer at Pitt and he was considering strongly going there, but I guess we’ll see.
Pitt does seem to be the rumored destination.
Phil J. transferred to BC when his girl is at BU, too.
Nothing in Notre Dame’s beyond the call, either, so perhaps it was a due diligence thing.
Well I whiffed on my prediction. BK apparently convinced his QB not to transfer.
LSU’s starter from 2021 definitely transfer ed to A&M, and his 5-star TE brother from the 2022 class decommitted to LSU as well and went to A&M.
Kelly got the 2022 commit Walker Howard to sign, if that was what you meant. Howard’s dad was one of the best LSU qb’s though, it would have had to be a pretty legendary screw up for Kelly to not get him to sign.
Kelly got Myles Brennan, another QB to stay, but I think the one that left in Max Johnson was much more significant (especially for the brother being a package deal and leaving too).
Howard was a lot closer to decommitting from LSU than you might think
Brian Kelly almost had a spectacular failure in recruiting? Hmm seems tough to believe 🙂
And C) Notre Dame isn’t interested in Slovis, if Rees’s “we feel really good about the quarterbacks on our roster” is any indication.
The people who are down on Buchner are the same people who whined about us letting Jurko get away; and Buchner has looked 100% better than Jurko ever did while wearing blue and gold. No, he doesn’t have the floor of the absolutely elite QBs in the country, but his ceiling is higher than anybody in the transfer portal. If the goal is a national championship, give me the high ceiling QB every time.
Great point about PJ — it seemed a lot of fans were disappointed when he left as they loved his potential (even though he did not show much in limited snaps at ND). With Buchner, could it be that since people saw him take more snaps he’s no longer in “Potential World” and is now in “Reality World”? That is, when a QB is pretty much an unknown, people love him (i.e., backup QB syndrome), but if you see him play a little that excitement goes away pretty quickly (even if that QB still has potential and just needs time to develop).
I think that Buchner looked decent for a freshman, with good tools — let’s see him develop.
I don’t think this is accurate at all! To overgeneralize a bit: the 247 message boards, who basically were very down on losing PJ at the time, are all in on Buchner and by and large think it’s crazy they even called Slovis. They’re generally consistent about one thing: recruiting rankings are what matter.
The main point I’ve been trying to make vis-a-vis next year is that by going with Buchner is very likely putting a ceiling on what the 2022 team can do. If Austin and/or Foskey and/or Ademelolae don’t come back, then there’s already a ceiling and it’s probably fine and best for the program over the long term to roll with Buchner.
But, even with Eric’s reassuring and well-argued post, nonetheless I remain convinced that we’re basically punting on next season in terms of realistic playoff hopes if we roll with Buchner. The message board reporting is that when the coaches were considering the portal options, they were going to try to pitch Buchner on redshirting next season if they decided to recruit Slovis. Notwithstanding what they’re saying publicly now, that’s not a huge vote of confidence!
What transfer QB raises the ceiling higher than Buchner’s ceiling? Genuinely curious, as I don’t see anybody out there who could do that. I could have seen an argument for Spencer Rattler, but if Lincoln Riley couldn’t get him to reach his ceiling, I don’t see Tommy Rees doing it. I don’t see Slovis’ ceiling being higher than Buchner’s ceiling; certainly not high enough to make this current roster a National Title contender.
Can you imagine if Rattler came to ND and Rees got him to outperform what Riley could do with him? Rees would end up with a contract better than Kelly’s.
I think our playoff odds going into the season would have been higher for next year if Slovis or Rattler transferred in, particularly Rattler, even if it meant Buchner left (which was no sure thing; see above re: the staff thinking they could pitch Buchner on redshirting).
I get the argument to go with Buchner, I do really. My approach would be that if we’re trying to be a top-5 program we should always maximize our odds of making the playoff, and I really think there is some over-optimism here about what Buchner can be *next year* specifically.
As a little backup to my position, there was a discussion about this topic on the last II podcast. While those guys are generally cheery and optimistic about prospects, and often reflect back what they are hearing from the coaches, and all three of O’Malley, Prister, and Sampson were all essentially like “while we think Buchner can be the guy, he’s not the passer we or ND thought they were getting.”
I’m not going to trust a bunch of random message boards about whether or not the staff could have pitched Buchner on redshirting; that’s an insane idea, and nothing about the current landscape of college football makes me think that would have worked.
If Rattler wasn’t good enough for Lincoln Riley, I don’t believe Tommy Rees could have made it work with him. But I do understand why people would prefer him to Buchner.
My approach is that I would be trying to maximize my chances of winning a national title. I don’t think ANY QB, be it Buchner or anybody in the portal, is good enough to elevate ND there in 2022. I think the best bet to get ND there in 2023 is either Buchner or a QB who is not in the portal this year (i.e. a recruit or a transfer next year).
I think Slovis raises your 2022 floor but puts a very hard cap on your 2022 and 2023 ceilings; he just doesn’t have national title upside, which I truly believe Buchner does if everything breaks right.. I think Rattler probably lowers both your floor and your ceiling, based on what happened this year at OU, but again, I definitely am open to views that are opposed to that.
The “they were thinking of pitching him on redshirting” thing came from a reporter, not posters.
And as “bad” as Rattler was for Riley, he is ranked #15 by PFF as a passer (two spots behind Caleb Williams) this year. He was #4 overall as a passer by PFF last year. Rattler would easily raise the floor AND the ceiling for whatever season he would have played for ND.
Oklahoma just needs their QBs to be perfect with a relatively average/bad defense. And they just happened to have ANOTHER elite talent on the bench that turned out to be better than Rattler.
The love affair with bad QB’s (let alone ones known to be cancerous, bad teammates with a ton of external baggage) is pretty confounding. No, no, a million times no.
Rattler also only threw only 11 TD to 5 INT while playing over half a season in the Oklahoma Heisman QB machine offense, got benched and had less yards/attempt last season than Buchner. What are we even doing here???
And still had a better season by Y/A, Comp %, TD/INT and rushing than Slovis has either of the past 2 years.
Everything about Rattler is better than everything about Slovis. And still, he is probably Jack Coan level (very similar QB ratings this year). I’d take Rattler, he could win us 10 games, but I think Buchner, or almost anyone, could win 10 games as well.
Now that I have actually looked at Slovis’ numbers and game logs from the past two years, I am a hard pass on him. He has been getting consistently worse and has maybe 4/15 games the past two years that I would call good. Plus, he was passed by Jaxson Dart (who had the same rating as Slovis this year, i.e. not good).
If it’s the Rattler that showed up against Texas or really anyone but FCS Western Carolina in 2021 (where he threw 5/11 TD’s this season), I don’t think Notre Dame would win many games…And he’s already committed to South Carolina, so why is his name even being pined for?
And there’s also off the field impacts with him, who will be pouty at best when things go downhill for him personally or he faces any adversity, and could sabotage team chemistry at worst as his college hopes slip away. This is a player I wouldn’t touch with a 10 foot pole.
You’re right about Slovis too, he’s not been worth anything in 2+ years and several injuries ago.
Why they are so desired but a highly rated youngster like Buchner has no potential to improve is very mysterious and such an unusual hill to dig in and die on.
THIS!!! Everyone needs to stop focusing on ‘next year’ and start focusing on the next few years. What is best for ’22 might actually be detrimental to ’23, ’24, etc. That’s where I landed with Coan. May have been best for ’21, but we’re right back were we started. I think a full year starting could have made Buchner a much better player in ’22.
Let’s not forget that we were pretty damn close to a playoff berth with Coan. I doubt we’d have been there without him.
But so what? We didn’t make it and now we’re right back where we were at the start of ’21. Coan was never going to win us a playoff game. So instead of actually knowing what we have in Buchner we’re another year behind the curve.
Every year matters. These are people coaching and playing for their current and future jobs. This isn’t a video game where you can sacrifice a year with no consequences.
Why are we instantly jumping to trying to develop a highly rated recruit in Buchner is already equating to sacrificing a year? That’s more the issue to not be willing to even consider that Buchner can provide better path than players who have flamed out (sometimes spectacularly) at other schools.
A QB transfer is no guarantee to always work out either, you could be the coach/coordinator who brings in Zaire to FL or Wimbush to UCF and be just as likely to lose your job just the same from a veteran QB who turns out to not perform.
But that’s exactly what they did with Coan. He was never going to lead us anywhere this year. What game did he win us that Buchner couldn’t have? He got benched more than once and didn’t become good until the OL got straightened out.
He did lead us somewhere this year. If you didn’t enjoy this season, that’s on you bud.
This…… “But so what” ??? Why do you think they play the games? You try to win every game. Every year is a start over.
100% agree. Tell the seniors and the coaches, who put food on their family’s table with the games they win, to sacrifice this year for next. You always fight the battle in front of you.
No one is asking them to sacrifice this year for next. Playing Buchner likely wouldn’t have been a season sacrifice. What games did Coan win that Buchner couldn’t have? The early season struggles and the loss are completely on Coan’s struggles.
I don’t agree with this take, personally. It suggests that Buchner has been spinning his wheels all year because Coan was running the show. I’m sure Buchner has progressed, and that the coaches have a pretty good idea of his progress.
Braden Lenzy told Eric Hansen quite bluntly that the reason that he didn’t play in his freshman year was that he couldn’t catch. He also was quite adamant that Kelly has never kept freshmen off the field for any reason except that they weren’t far along enough to be able to contribute, and cites Lorenzo Styles as an example.
So I’m going to say that the reason that Buchner wasn’t the Number one guy is that he wasn’t ready to be.
I don’t disagree with what you’re saying, I just disagree with the results. Buchner probably wasn’t ready, especially early on, but what did Coan do to change any of that? 11-1 or 9-3 doesn’t make that much of a difference for next year. Buchner having 11 starts at least lets us know where we stand for ’22.
It makes a BIG difference for the players and the coaches.
It doesn’t make a big difference for fans.
Sure, but a one-year patch like Coan was totally necessary to bring in a veteran voice while Buchner was a true freshman who didn’t play football at all in 2020. It would have been irresponsible to not bring in Coan,and grabbing him is basically an admission that the 2018-2020 QB recruiting didn’t work…Which, it didn’t (Jurkovec transferred, Clark too injured, Pyne not good enough)
Situation is quite different now in early 2022 than it was in early 2021, there’s no need for a decent-to-good-but-not-NFL-caliber transfer QB. It’s time to ride with Buchner and see if he’s going to be a player or not.
Imagine this pep talk: “Hey guys we’re going with Tyler today because we think it’ll give us the best chance to win a year from now. Now go out there and play hard.” That’d fire em up !
Because that’s the only way to frame it right? It’s impossible to say that while they know Tyler might have his struggles, starting him is best for the team as a whole, and that it will pay off more and more as the season goes on. Or that once it was obvious Coan wasn’t anything special that Tyler was going to finish out the season.
That might have been the pep talk for playing Buchner vs. Florida State, but should not be the case at all for 2022.
How about “We got our boy Tyler making his first of MANY starts for us tonight (everyone in the room would go nuts) so how about we go out there, support our new QB, woop some Seminole ass and show them what everyone is in store for in the coming weeks!”. See how easy it is to turn it into a positive?
Buchner was barely getting reps during fall camp, though. It would’ve been a huge effort to just hand the keys over to him from game one.
Understood but I feel it would have been better for the program as a whole. My entire point is that this year, with Coan was never going to be a playoff year and we’re at 11-1 which is better than most of us predicted but Coan had little to do with that. Obviously we don’t know how it would have gone if Buchner had started game 1 but I think we’d be in a better spot moving forward if he had. What game did Coan actually WIN us?
FSU for sure. Toledo probably. UNC maybe.
Wouldn’t this consternation make more sense if ND was 8-4 or worse?
It’s just too difficult to say we should’ve thrown Buchner to the wolves from day one because we’d be set up better for 2022. This line of thinking automatically takes as a given that more playing time for Buchner at all costs is good for the team and good for Buchner long-term.
I feel like college football strongly suggests that cannot be a given at all.
I wish Buchner played a little more but wholesale starting the entire season never seemed realistic at all. He has 3 more years to develop, it’s fine IMO.
Sure, we’re nitpicking after an 11-1 season, I get that, but the problem to me is we’re going into ANOTHER season where we’re not sure who our starting QB is and “contemplating” a transfer QB as a short term solution.
It’s good for the team in the sense that you understand better who Buchner is and what he can do. I get why Coan was given the starting job and the hesitation about starting Buchner from the jump, but unless the REAL expectation is a playoff birth and a win, I’d roll the dice and possible be 9-3 but have a better grasp on who is going to QB ’22 than be 11-1 and doing the same ole song and dance again.
This is true, if your primary goal is to try and find this out as soon as possible even if it increases the likelihood that the “roll of the dice” is harmful to Buchner.
The primary goal should not be fast-tracking players to see if they can sink or swim so we can find out if they can dominate as sophomores.
I think what has happened to Buchner so far in reality makes him more ready for 2022 than if we gave him too much to handle, started him the whole season, and went into 2022 with lost confidence and other problems.
Also, isn’t it kind of funny that Ohio State and Alabama both had redshirt freshmen quarterbacks excel this year? Like, Buchner got his feet wet and could be really good next year too.
Sure but you’re assuming Buchner would sink and that’s fine. I think his skillset is ideal for starting early. RPO, quick passes, more screens, qb runs. I think the offense could have thrived around Buchner, Williams, Tyree and Myers.
As I stated in another comment, this entire argument is changed by the realization that Buchner missed his last 2 years of HS ball. I still think he could have been a better option than Coan but it also makes more sense to me why he didn’t start.
I don’t understand how “see if they can sink or swim” can process as “assuming Buchner would sink.” I’m also unclear on how “we feel really good about the quarterbacks on our roster” can mean “we’re … ‘contemplating’ a transfer QB as a short term solution.”
That said, from what I saw of Buchner last year, he was sometimes absolutely brilliant, and sometimes pretty erratic. I think he would have done ok as the starter, but I also think if he had been ready for a larger role than he had he would have gotten it.
I’m reminded of all the foofarau about not playing Braden Lenzy in his freshman year, when we needed the next Will Fuller. I was interested to see Lenzy’s blunt statement in his recent interview that the reason he didn’t play in his freshman year is that he couldn’t catch.
Maybe Buchner really is about as consistent as he showed himself to be this year: not bad, could be better. I expect that he will have his breakout year next year, and I’m looking forward to it. I can’t see my way to agreeing with the notion that Buchner has in some way been held back by not playing him last year and letting the chips fall where they may. I am sure that he has improved a great deal this season.
Missing the last two years of high school left him completely unprepared to start at a high level D1 program. He looked like a dear in the headlights often, which was to be expected given his lack of experience.
If he’s as good as you think he won’t be here three years. If he’s not, he likely transfers.
I don’t see enough data to be very confident, but at this point he’s the best option we have.
The fact is we need a Heisman or near Heisman qb to win a NC.
But then we need a cadre of high draft round receivers, which we don’t have either.
it is what it is.
I don’t lose a lot of sleep worrying about QB play at Notre Dame being Heisman-level quality or else it’s a disappointment.
To say Coan had little to do with it is just changing reality. Also we missed the playoffs by a hair, so that part of your argument is untrue too. Everyone payed attention a couple Saturdays ago because we absolutely had a chance.
Coan’s numbers are pedestrian at best, 20 TDs and 6 ints while being sack 30 TIMES! Obviously not all of the sacks were his fault but plenty of them were. That puts him tied for 38th in TDs this year. BTW there were 3 freshman ahead of him on the list.
Our line had a good bit to do with many of the sacks. Not saying Coan was championship caliber, but he did over perform my expectations and I’d guess that of most fans.
I don’t see it being different. We still don’t know if we have a qb we can make the playoffs with, and there’s no depth at the position.
I just want to point out that in his first meeting with the players as their HC (the crazy mob in the locker room), Marcus Freeman literally said “We’re not looking at a year or two down the road, we’re focused on winning right now with this group standing here.” If he rolls with Buchner next year (which he should), then he’s not waving the white flag on the season — he believes that Buchner gives them the best option to win right now. (Apologies if I misunderstood your comment, but I just wanted to clear the air on that.)
Why is everyone assuming going with Buchner even this year was waving the white flag? Coan cost us 1 game, was the reason for struggles in at least 2 others, and “won” zero games.
Yeah this is not right. The 2021 team would have lost to Florida State and Toledo (at least) with Buchner/Pyne only.
Here’s another way to look at this: if Coan weren’t inexplicably screwed out of his COVID season and could come back next year, is there any doubt that he would still be QB1 going into the season? No, not really. And is Coan better than Slovis or Rattler? No not really.
Look, it’s all a moot point; they’re both going to other schools. But let’s not pretend like it would have been an obvious mistake if they recruited Slovis.
Also, the coaches clearly thought they would win more games with Coan. And they won 11, so they weren’t wrong.
How do you know they weren’t wrong? I understand how ridiculous it would be to expect Buchner to go undefeated, but until he was given the opportunity you can’t say it was the correct decision.
If you honestly think that Buchner would have lead us to an undefeated regular season, then there is no point continuing this discussion.
Also, Buchner played against Cincinnati. He went 0-2 with 1 INT and 4 carries for 8 yds.
No I don’t believe that, never said I did. I DO believe we could have lead us to 11-1 though. My point is that 11-1 doesn’t PROVE the coaches right no matter how far fetched 12-0 might have been.
So you are arguing against everyone on this board for something you don’t even believe?
I’ve never argued they would have gone 12-0 with Buchner. I argued that I think starting Buchner would have been better for the program as a whole, especially going into ’22, and that Coan was nothing special this year and I believe Buchner could have done just as well, if not better than Coan. All of that can be true while also believing that we MAY have even lost more games if Buchner started. I think we’re LUCKY to be 11-1 with Coan. Do you think they should have gone 12-0 with Coan?
The “who should start” argument was settled back in the fall. It was certainly a real argument for a couple weeks back then but, it isn’t now. Kelly said Coan was #1 and he proved to be correct.
I think eyerish is saying that he didn’t “prove to be correct” since we don’t have any data about what would have happened if Buchner had been #1. But that is far from supporting his apparent argument that the coaches made a wrong choice in bringing in Coan and not going with Buchner.
Fortunately, this is not a math proof. And even statistically, if one showed that something was statistically significant within a 99% confidence interval, most people would consider that proving it, but alas, plenty of people would say that it doesn’t prove it.
I consider it proven beyond any reasonable doubt.
Let’s simplify all of this.
I see 2 ways that Buchner could have started games this year.
It sounds like you believe 1 is true, and 2 should have been the case even without 1. Is that accurate? Is there another possibility that I am missing?
1 is something that 99% of people see as very clearly not the case. Especially, As tlndma mentions, the people explicitly selected and paid by the university to make such judgements and decisions. They then won 11 games on the assumption that 1 was false.
2 has happened 1 time, to my knowledge. Holgorsen’s first year at Houston. He asked a bunch of upper classmen to RS so they’d be better the year after. I don’t think it was looked upon positively by many people. It certainly didn’t pay off last year. Now they seem to be pretty good. So maybe it is in fact worth it. But, I think is generally frowned upon unless it is getting you a high draft pick.
Sort of. First let me say I did forget that Buchner missed his last 2 years of HS football. That obviously matter, A LOT. So that does change my overall opinion.
Kelly got the LSU job in part because he finished 11-1. Another reason he wouldn’t willingly flush the year to gamble on Buchner.
I get your argument, but I don’t think it’s likely. What you think suggests that the coaches erred in their thinking, since they obviously thought differently. I’m siding with the coaches in this one.
One of the reasons we went 11-1 is that after Cinci, we played 7 straight teams who did not have winning seasons. Both we and Cinci had really soft schedules this year.
This is a textbook example of a straw man argument. You might as well say “if you honestly believe in purple cows, there’s no point continuing this discussion.”
Buchner going 12-0 (improving on our season) would have been pretty comparable to a purple cow.
Ok, I get where you’re coming from now. but he isn’t saying that Buchner would have improved on our season. He’s saying that giving Buchner all those reps would improve on our NEXT season, regardless of W/L record. I disagree entirely, but I think that’s what he’s saying.
I can. I might be wrong, though. But then, so might you. Why are you so convinced that you’re right?
If you understand how ridiculous that is, then why are you asking the question?
It took them a while to land there, but Kelly and Rees did a commendable job this season finding a balance between maximizing short- and long-term focus at the QB position. I don’t honestly know how anyone could take issue with how they handled it (this includes preserving Pyne’s redshirt year) unless you weren’t paying attention or are just arguing for argument’s sake.
Are you this much into fantasy? You have zero factual evidence to support your opinion.
IDK, it’s not like Coan lit the world on fire against FSU. I mean his stats are nice but he struggle for long stretches of that game. Coan was sacked 4 times against FSU and 6 times against Toledo. I doubt
Buchner gets sacked that many times in those 2 games. I’d argue we would have beat Cincy if Buchner starts. I think some of you are vastly underestimating the impact a mobile QB like Buchner has on the offense and the stresses it puts on a defense. Look what Ridder’s mobility did to our D.
We can’t really say what Coan would do next year if available since we have no clue what Freeman wants from the offense. Maybe Freeman thinks that he can rely on his D and wants an explosive, big play offense. Coan definitely isn’t going to provide that.
If you think we beat Cincy with Buchner, then you should have no worries going into next year.
Outside of OSU, I don’t have a lot of worry about next year.
I want what you’re smoking.
Buchner was pure shit vs Cinci. I just rewatched it to see if I missed something. I didn’t.
This goes a bit too far for me. I think Buchner would win the starting job over Coan next year. And yeah, Buchner is better than Slovis or Rattler. As I believe we will see this fall.
There’s practically no such thing as an “obvious mistake” when it comes to recruiting. But I think it would have been a mistake to bring Slovis in, assuming he wanted to come.
Buchner’s interception in that game didn’t help us much either. Nor did the offensive line — which certainly contributed to that interception. That loss was a team effort. As for the rest of your comment, it seems slanted to me. Coan “won” the Toledo game IMO, although one could argue that he “lost” it first.
I just see zero evidence that we would have done better without Coan and with Buchner starting. And the most obvious evidence to the contrary is that Coan started and Buchner didn’t. I think the many comments (before Kelly ditched us at the prom, so to speak) that last year was Kelly’s best coaching job so far (maybe Rees’s really, of course) were accurate. They won all but one of their games with a hot mess of a team, put it all together in the bye week and turned into a contender. That hugely exceeded the preseason expectations of most.
I’m not saying thats pure coach speak but what else is he supposed to say? He’s either lying if he says he’s only focused on this year, or he’s going to end up being a bad coach. Player evaluation and progress in and of itself means he’s looking a year or two down the road.
Who else could he “roll with”at this point?
How does Slovis raise our floor in ’22? His best year was his freshman year and he’s gotten worse every year since.
Here’s a rough transcript of that conversation because it was one of the reasons for my article:
I thought it was very strange from O’Malley, to be honest. And, Prister and Sampson walk him back quite a bit.
I think the only way to be disappointed is if someone thought Buchner would be a generationally great passer fresh out of high school. Otherwise, not much of that makes sense.
Yeah, O’Malley makes the weird jump to “why are we so certain he would be a playoff level passer next season” when no one has ever stated that is the expectation, especially as a sophomore and first time starter. You can like a guy and think there is a solid chance he is the future at the position right now when he’s walking in, and him not be a complete finished product. Maybe that’s a tough nuance to grasp?
I think some get a weird mental block since tOSU is Game 1 of the season, and if you don’t have a polished QB then Notre Dame is certain to lose and then the whole operation is down in flames.
(Doesn’t explain the weird fascination on QBs who aren’t very good/haven’t been good in years, but I can see the starting point)
I think O’Malley is comparing Buchner’s high school film to what we saw in games this year. Yes, that was significantly different. Meanwhile he’s forgetting that everyone, including him, said it was against weak competition in his junior year and to keep that in mind. Then he didn’t get to play his senior season after transferring. So the kid had an even bigger jump to make. So, I understand O’Malley’s worries but, what exactly was O’Malley expecting ?
Buchner has nine months as “the guy” to get ready to start. I expect he’ll have a rough day in Columbus. Most QBs do.
Playing OSU in the opener next season has pushed the QB conversation into a silly place, IMO. I understand that everyone hopes to win the game. Hell, I live a mile from campus amongst those people — I will take losing it harder than just about anyone. But we’re treating game 1 like we’re jumping immediately into the CFB playoffs in a must-win situation, and it’s an unfair expectation for any quarterback starting his first game at ND.
Fwiw, I think Buchner would give Ohio State fits if we played them today. Things may change with a new DC and other retooling, but their defense should be much less of a concern for now.
Given blue chip ratios and # of top 100 players, there are no hopes once ND gets into the playoffs anyways next season. This line of thinking also only punts on Buchner being unable to show any improvement or get any growths, which feels unnecessarily down on a talented player. Young players get better and make jumps from year to year all the time.
Punting on playoff hopes is what we should have done THIS YEAR! It would have put Buchner in a much better place for next year.
I think the actual message board reporting you’re referring to – only 247, in this case – was more nuanced than that. Tom Loy said, “They do believe they can get him if they want him, but they don’t want to risk losing Tyler Buchner either. The fact is, if they get Slovis, Buchner likely redshirts.” He didn’t say the staff planned to take Slovis so they could redshirt Buchner. The implication I take from that is that Loy himself, who has always held Slovis in high regard, assumes Slovis would win the job if he transferred.
Loy again, later yesterday morning: “When all this came out this morning, before [Pitt] was expected, I’m told Notre Dame was set to contact the people involved and let them know that they were going to roll with Buchner – Pyne next year. [They could still look for a transfer QB], but not someone expected to take the job over Buchner, who they see as the future.”
ISD’s Matt Freeman said yesterday, “Notre Dame has had contact with him, but the staff has also not made a decision on if they want to pursue Slovis. Tommy Rees doesn’t want to lose Tyler Buchner and there will be more conversations to be had, but I believe there is a great deal of confidence that Buchner is ready to take over the team in 2022.” Christian McCollum at ISD also said he wasn’t sure that Slovis ever really had a transfer offer from ND.
Sampson should have a mailbox post up in a couple of days and, not surprisingly, people asked him to opine on the Slovis thing, so we’ll see what he says.
FWIW Slovis didn’t reciprocate the interest, and the reason he didn’t was that if he did come the staff expected him to compete for the starting job with Buchner rather than just have the starting job. I think they’d like a depth guy, someone better than those guys hit the portal, they touched base, and mutually agreed it wasn’t going to work.
Not really… I wanted Jurko over Book, but I’ve also been saying that Buchner should have gotten WAY more reps this season.
The TB12 bat signal seems to have gone out this Monday.
I’m optimistic about Buchner, the minor concern that I have is that neither Pyne nor Angeli are expected to run the ball very well, so if they’re needed it’ll swing what the offense wants to do by a lot, but that isn’t a reason to hold TB back if he’s the best option for QB1. I’d expect to enter spring practices with TB12 taking top QB snaps, but not the declared starter for the OSU game.
I’m pro Buchner as well. While his passing has been so-so up to now, he has thrown some nice passes which is encouraging and his arm strength seems to be good. His running skills should keep defenses honest, helping to create one-on-one coverages with the
WRsTEs running routes (I fixed that after remembering that ND won’t have any WRs in the coming years). In addition, him being a running threat also seems to help the RBs.As long as he keeps showing improvement, I’d like to see him get a chance to run the show.
https://twitter.com/ISDUpdate/status/1472992352402874369?s=20
This is why I was hoping that ND was going to fully turn the keys over fully to TB after the Cincinnati game. Selfishly, I didn’t want to have a entire offseason of message board comments and blog posts saying either Buchner can’t throw and the sky is falling.
No point in discussing what didn’t happen though. I agree with you E, I think TB has a lot of great tools and is going to have a lot of success. I hope he gets 90% of the first team reps in the spring.
Side note, but count me firmly in the crowd who has been so jealous of the Ohio State teams over the last 15 years who had a dual threat QB who would complete a 12 yard pass to their target and then they would run it 55 yards for a touchdown (IE TB to Tyree against Toledo this year). That’s what makes TB so exciting to me. He has the arm talent to throw deep and the legs to open up the playbook and get all of the playmakers on offense involved. Give me 15 plays like over the course of next season and I feel like we’ll be very satisfied with this offense.
I have a feeling that a lot of the can Buchner can throw come from three things. First, the mention that Rees/BK tweaked his throwing motion coupled with a general belief on NDNation that those two kill QBs and that is the sign that they have already killed Buchner.
Second, people remember the INTs he threw against Va Tech, and especially the one that almost was, more than they remember the good throws.
Third, basically after Va. Tech he really wasn’t a primary thrower and some people, I am sure, are taking that as a sign that Kelly/Rees believe he can’t throw. At the end of the day, other than Va. Tech, his part in the passing game was basically on training wheels.
PErsonally, I think he would be fine. I don’t think there is anyone in the portal I would start ahead of him.
A lot of good points. And really, to add, Va Tech was the only time Buchner was really a passer (because Coan was ineffective, ND was behind and in a tough game), the rest of the time Buchner was just a situational QB to use his legs to open up more. If Coan wasn’t bad, that would have been all we really would have seen this season.
I think there would be more “can he be the next in line like Stroud or Young” to step out with very little experience as a redshirt freshman to be the starter at a top-end program. Probably some unknown since he played so little over the past few years, but that was pretty much why they got Coan as a bridge. No real need to get another bridge QB who is going to be good but not great.
Especially in the hiring of Freeman, who knows as a 1st year HC if he will be the best in-game coach. He’s going to mess some things up and learn on the job. Kelly leaving for Freeman makes the floor record shakier next year, just based on experience and steadiness. Why not go bold and see what Buchner can do? (Esp. since I assume he’s probably going to transfer if another veteran QB is brought in, presumably to start, since those guys wouldn’t go to ND to compete when they can go to Oregon, Pitt, Texas A&M, etc and start).
Sorry for being off topic here, but does anyone know how the NCAA and/or ND is handling covid testing at this point? There’s been a whole bunch of recent sporting events disrupted recently. Would be a logistical mess it would seem if lots of kids start testing positive during bowl season.
Outstanding writeup, Eric. That pass to Austin removed any doubts that I might have about Buchner’s ability. Not that I had any doubts about his excellence in the long term, but how quickly he will learn from his few bad decisions is perhaps an open question.
Kedon Slovis transfers to Pittsburgh.
If he sticks around two years using his COVID year of eligibility he’ll get to come to Notre Dame Stadium again, so he’s got that going for him.
Looking around at a few stats, Buchner’s passer rating is higher than Bryce Young’s and Baker Mayfield’s in their freshman years, and his rushing YPC was a yard and a half higher than Lamar Jackson’s. I won’t be at all surprised if next year he is Notre Dame’s first really elite QB in quite a few years.
Good stuff, Bob.
And I want to echo Bob’s and others — this is really a terrific piece, Eric. An important issue into which you have done a deep dive, much to the benefit of a healthy dialogue on all of this. My memories of great ND QBs go back to Ralph Gugliemo and Paul Hornung, and your piece has nourished my hopes that young Mr. Buckner will be the next great one!
Mine only go back as far as Terry Hanratty and Coley O’Brien. 🙂 Perhaps calling Coley “great” is stretching a point, though. I don’t think he was probably pro caliber. But he was certainly a great guy. My father was a prof at NDLS while Coley was going there, so I got to know him a bit.
Seriously?
And that GT RB Smith is transferring to Alabama – the rich get richer.
Rumor is they’re not done yet either.