This one stings a little bit, but it’s only one loss. It doesn’t define our season. The next opponents coming up this season, best of luck to you, because we’re coming.

-DE Khalid Kareem Post 23-17 Loss At Georgia

 

Last time Notre Dame took on Virginia was the famous 2015 contest where a top ten Notre Dame team was looking to fight off a feisty Virginia team on the road. The team showed off their Road Warrior chops by overcoming a desperate coaching staff (Mike London resigned immediately after the season) throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the Irish. They also had to overcome the loss of their QB in Malik Zaire, which if you have The Athletic read Matt Fortuna’s story on Zaire posted yesterday, and scrambled to keep pace with the UVa squad that ended up taking the lead late in the game. Then this happened. It was a turning point for the Irish that DeShone Kizer could continue the aspirations of the team and they could become what Kelly wants this team to become; Road Warriors.

A little more than four years later the Irish find themselves once again at a crossroads. Fresh off a loss in Athens, the Irish need to immediately rebound. They take on a replenished Hoos squad that has flourished in new coach Bronco Mendenhall’s fourth year under the program. Mendenhall is working to continue and improve his team’s record since he’s arrived (going 2-10, 6-7, and 8-5 the past three seasons). They walk into Notre Dame Stadium looking to walk out 5-0 for the first time since 2004. Let’s take a look into how they can potentially knock off the Irish.

Virginia at Notre Dame (-12.5)

Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, September 28, 2019
Time: 3:30 PM ET
TV: NBC

Virginia’s journey to get to this game has been interesting. They started their 2019 campaign going on the road to Pittsburgh, trying to avenge the game that essentially kept them out of the ACC Championship.  They handled the Panthers easily and also took care of business against William & Mary. Their season got interesting in their past two games. Virginia struggled early with both Florida State and Old Dominion, where they were outscored 31-17 in those first halves. So they have needed to show their grit earlier in the season, but it has shown us what this Cavaliers team can be and who they lean on.

Virginia’s Offense

Virginia’s biggest offensive weapon is not a secret to anyone who has watched Virginia the past two seasons; it’s Bryce Perkins. The JUCO transfer QB has been a game changer for the program by being a dynamic presence with his arm and his legs since he took over the offense around this time last season. Perkins not only leads the team in passing, but he also leads the team in rushing as well, averaging almost as much per attempt as the starting RB, Wayne Taulapapa. This doesn’t seem bizarre on its surface since Perkins was less than 100 yards from surpassing last year’s starting RB Jordan Ellis a season ago. However, the efficiency for Perkins and Taulapapa does not match the prior year’s output. Both are averaging less than four yards a carry, which Perkins and Ellis did with ease a season ago. This has led to Virginia’s rushing offense being ranked 11th in the ACC, alongside their week one opponent Pitt.

Also, under comparing last year’s offense to this years, Perkins has yet to really lock on a #1 target after losing Olamide Zaccheaus and his 93 receptions from last year. Senior Joe Reid has seemingly emerged as the #1 target and hasn’t really needed to separate himself from secondaries, averaging 9.3 yards per reception. Two other long field targets are Haise Dubois, a 6’ 3’’ senior also looking to emerge as a more consistent option, and Terrell Jana. The biggest bugaboo of this offense has been extending drives. They went 1-11 on 3rd down against Old Dominion and 5-12 against Florida State.

To no surprise, SP+ does not like the Virginia offense, ranking it 80th, putting it behind struggling teams like South Carolina (struggling to find their footing offensively with a new freshman QB) and Michigan (who as we all know had a public pantsing in the Big Nooner last week). Also, it is pretty funny to me that Virginia’s offense is ranked directly behind in-state rival Virginia Tech, once again losing another battle against the Hokies.

Virginia’s Defense

Virginia has some real talent at all three levels on the defensive side of the ball. Up front, they are a unit that is currently tied for the lead nationally in sacks. Per Football Outsiders, their front seven has gotten a sack on 13.5% of pass rushes, taking out garbage time. The leader of that line play, in terms of production, is senior LB Jordan Mack, who’s 5.0 sacks this season is almost doubling his career output in the first couple of games alone. They are also equally efficient in stopping the run. They are holding teams to 3.53 yards per game rushing (adjusted to take out sacks because sacks are apparently rushes for a QB? What a dumb concept). They held Cam Akers (probably the best RB they will face unless they make the ACC Championship Game) to just 78 yards on 18 carries. This should be the best offensive line Virginia plays thus far and in the regular season so it’s worth keeping an eye on the trenches to see how they perform.

The biggest performer to look out for is LB (and reigning ACC Linebacker of the Week) Charles Snowden, who helped spark the comeback against ODU last week with his 15 tackles, 3.5 going for a loss, and adding 2 sacks. When push comes to shove on this team, this backbone of the LB core has really shown up and helped when the offense has been lacking. The other playmaker in the back end of the defense is future Day 2 draft pick Bryce Hall. The 6’ 1’’ CB may lack the size to take on someone like Chase Claypool, but not unlike Julian Love, he makes up for in instincts and physicality. This is the major matchup for me on this side of the ball as I want to see if a) Claypool can continue his performance from last week and b) if Hall can keep up and show off why scouts seem to peg him as a second or third-rounder.

SP+ is kinder to the Virginia defense, putting them 18th in the nation, and rightfully so. The ranking puts the defense around the neighborhood of Arizona State, Temple, and Miami (FL). It will be interesting to see if the defense play like it does against Old Dominion, where they clearly had the skill advantage and flexed it over the course of the game, or against Florida State, where the defense struggled against teams with equal or better talent.

Prediction

I want to circle back around to the quote I led the preview with. The idea of a letdown game has been common among Notre Dame fans, mostly because they seem to exist after games like last week’s Georgia game. In 2012, the Irish struggled with BYU and Pitt after big emotional wins vs Stanford and at Oklahoma respectively. Even more recently, we saw the Irish struggle with Navy at home after getting embarassed in Miami. When I was listening to College Football podcast The Solid Verbal, one of the co-hosts Ty Hildenbrant, a noted Notre Dame fan, already wanted to say he was picking Virginia plus whatever the spread was. He stayed true in his predictions citing that this seems to be a situation where Notre Dame will win, but it will be close.

Discussion of this game happened yesterday among the 18S staff and it was something I was leaning towards but hearing them spell it out made sense. I think this game is similar to the 2017 NC State game. Kareem’s quote shows a focus for the team that has not given up on their goals for the season and is not going to let up and that Virginia is the next victim standing in the way of their goal. I feel dubious about the offense and what they can do against a defense like Notre Dame, which has the talent (and then some) of Florida State with better execution. The question of course will be to contain Perkins, but I have faith that Clark Lea, who has shown the ability to adjust fairly well, will use a similar gameplan that he had for the second half of the Louisville game to neutralize the Virginia star as much as they can.

The other major question is which Ian Book shows up; the conservative one in the first half and 3rd quarter vs Georgia, or the one who had to run the quick tempo offense late in the game. I think if they run more up tempo, and with the return of Jahmir Smith and Michael Young along with another week of Cole Kmet, I think Book will have his choice of options to get the ball out.

Notre Dame 41

Virginia 17

I think the Irish walk away with an easy win going away and covering as the offense wears down the Cavalier defense in the second half. Maybe we can get another Hamilton pick-six to energize the crowd again. Look out Virginia, the Irish are coming.