Once upon a time, Justin Fuente was the caliente young head coach in college football, hired at 39 years old by Virginia Tech after a short but impressive stint at Memphis while finishing on a 19-6 run with the Tigers. Then, Fuente won 10 games and finished No. 16 in the nation in his debut season in Blacksburg and his stock seemed ready to explode as one of the top candidates to pick up a blue-blood job in the years to come.
The Hokies finished ranked No. 24 following 2017 but since November of that year they’ve began a downward trend now having lost 11 out of their last 25 games. And this with entirely manageable schedules supplemented by a struggling ACC league.
For example, Fuente defeated No. 22 Pittsburgh back on October 27, 2016 and has since faced only 6 more ranked opponents (all losses) in the 39 games since. This visit to Notre Dame will be Virginia Tech’s first ranked regular season opponent since the Irish last year, and before that, Miami back in November 2017.
Virginia Tech (+17.5) at Notre Dame
Notre Dame Stadium
South Bend, Indiana
Date: Saturday, November 2, 2019
Time: 2:30 PM ET
TV: NBC
These very easy schedules partly explains why Tech is in a 4-way tie for their division lead in the ACC and are behind those 3 other teams in SP+ ranking. Of their 20 wins since the beginning of 2017, a full 4 of them have come against FCS opponents and 4 additional wins against Group of 5 teams. Since November 2017, the Hokies are only 8-11 against Power 5 programs with only two of those victories (2018 8-5 Duke and 2018 8-5 Virginia) coming against teams with a winning record.
Virginia Tech’s Offense
The Hokies’ offense in 2019 has been defined lately by a couple players who entered the transfer portal but ultimately decided to return to Blacksburg. At running back, Deshawn McClease had 6 carries last year against Notre Dame and finished as the primary backup for 2018. This season, he decided to stay and leads the Hokies with 475 rushing yards.
Va Tech was all set to run things back with senior Ryan Willis at quarterback following the former Kansas transfer winning the job last year. He made it to the Duke game this year in which the Hokies were blown out and Willis only completed 7 passes before being benched the following week.
In stepped redshirt sophomore Hendon Hooker (great name, btw) who has started the last 3 games, all wins, and brings an added rushing dynamic that wasn’t present with Willis behind center.
Hooker exited Virginia Tech’s last game against UNC with a knee injury shortly before halftime and Willis stepped in for a couple series before being replaced by redshirt freshman Quincy Patterson–who by the looks of it–is primarily a running quarterback. In a game that went to a sixth overtime, Virginia Tech ran the ball 32 times and only threw it 7 times with Patterson in at quarterback.
The reports out of Blacksburg are that Hooker is healthy and ready to go against Notre Dame.
Expect a lot of running as Hooker has 41 rushing attempts in 2.5 games as starter to just 59 pass attempts. It’s been a small sample size but he’s breathed life into the Hokies offense and he’d be leading the ACC in passing efficiency if he qualified right now.
Virginia Tech’s Defense
Last year was a debacle as Virginia Tech’s traditionally stingy defense plummeted from 9th in SP+ in 2017 to 77th in 2018. They were young, had a lot of turnover, and it obviously did not go well. Everyone came back for 2019 so has there been improvement!??
Eh, not really. The Hokies enter Saturday slightly improved at 65th in SP+ defense and have allowed an average of 39 points in the 4 games against Power 5 opponents this year.
Virginia Tech is impressively average practically across the board. Look up any stat and they are either in the 50’s or 60’s nationally, no really try it out.
Linebacker Rayshard Ashby will be someone to keep an eye on. He had a couple tackles for loss last year against Notre Dame and is currently tied for 8th nationally in tackles per game and has an impressive 10 tackles for loss thus far in 2019.
Prediction
Are middling teams the same as bad teams? That’s an age-old question in college football that mostly has a lot to do with how you view your own program. The Fighting Irish are coming off a stinging loss to a Michigan program that was given plenty of negative connotations prior to last Saturday night so perhaps our view and descriptive language of some opponents will change for the rest of 2019.
According to SP+ this game with Virginia Tech will be the second most difficult* remaining for Notre Dame…but just barely.
*Navy has very quietly moved up to 39th in SP+ and faces UConn tonight before a bye gives them time to prepare for a visit to Notre Dame. The Middies will likely be 7-1 and possibly ranked in the AP Poll (they’re 27th in votes coming into the weekend) when they visit South Bend.
There are a cluster of an incredible 9 ACC teams ranked 41st (Virginia) through 63rd (Duke) with Virginia Tech slotted in at 57th as the 8th best team in their league. That’s slightly better than the aforementioned Duke, plus Boston College (68th) in addition to the Pac-12’s Stanford struggling at 71st overall from Notre Dame’s remaining schedule.
3 pre-game questions…
How Will the Irish Respond Following Humiliation?
There’s been plenty of talk about how Notre Dame will recover from the Michigan loss and carry on for the rest of the season. Our concern is just this game on Saturday with Virginia Tech, though.
A lot of Irish fans have thrown in the towel, bemoaned there’s nothing left to play for, and mentally have parachuted off to other things in life. Some expect the team to pack it in, as well. I do not, this program has failed on the big stage but generally picks itself up off the ground and carries on well enough, especially at home.
Will Book & The Offense Receive Boo’s from the Home Crowd?
So, about that home crowd.
This is a big moment for Ian Book if he wishes to convince anyone he should remain the starting quarterback. This is a game you absolutely do not want to start out cold and punting or turning the ball over in front of a restless crowd.
In last year’s game against the Hokies if you remember the Irish started hot then went into a lull offensively before pulling away in the second half. That lull last year spanned 4 series, 38 yards on 19 snaps, 2 punts, one turnover on downs, and included Book’s first interception of the year.
That kind of start would not be ideal in front of a home crowd eager to see Notre Dame pick itself up off the mat from the Ann Arbor rain.
One Last Hurrah for Bud Foster
You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become a villain. So it feels for Bud Foster who is in his 32nd year on the Virginia Tech staff, 24th year as defensive coordinator, and will be retiring at the end of the 2019 season.
Foster spent the late 1990’s and the greater part of the 2010’s as one of the country’s most coveted assistants but never made the leap to a head coaching position and finishes his career leading rather mediocre defenses in 5 out of his 6 last seasons as Virginia Tech has fallen off the national radar with no AP Top 15 finishes in the last 9 seasons.
Other than the Hokies regular season finale in Charlottesville–in which they look to extend their winning streak over Virginia to 16 straight games–this visit to South Bend might be Bud Foster’s last meaningful moment in the national spotlight.
***
At first blush, well over a two-score spread felt insane coming off the Michigan loss and while gauging the temperature across the internet it would seem like most Irish fans would not bet the cover this weekend.
I’m coming around to the line making more sense. Virginia Tech has been thoroughly mediocre this year losing to Boston College, having a hard time putting Old Dominion away, an even more difficult time putting away Furman, all before a 35-point home loss to Duke.
The insertion of Hendon Hooker changes things, maybe. Among their 3-game winning streak is a FCS win (seriously what is with this scheduling, Hokies?), a win against Miami in which they allowed 27 first downs, 7.2 yards per play, and were -226 in total yardage, plus a literal statistical stalemate six overtime game (thank goodness they are coming off a bye!) in which someone had to lose versus North Carolina.
That’s not a real impressive win streak. I like the Irish to have a solid bounce-back in a game where they are nursing a two-score lead for most of the afternoon.
If we aren’t leading at halftime (or if we’re leading, but it’s like 10-7), do you think there’s any chance we see Kelly open the 2nd half with Jurko. I think it would be a very Kelly move to put him in for 2 series, see us score 0 points, and then go back to Book.
Note that is potentially relevant: the forecast for Saturday is currently 40 degrees, 12+ mph sustained winds, and a 35% chance of precipitation at kickoff.
Nope. PJ right now is where Book was in 2017 – he’s going to come in if the starter completely loses it. I’m not sure what we saw from him last week that would indicate he’ll do great things – he tripped on his own two feet and was fortunate to avoid a fumble on his first series, actually fumbled on his second series, and then led a penalty-aided scoring drive against Michigan’s backups.
I get the frustration with Book, and I share it in that frustration. I’m just not sold that Phil is the answer today, nor am I sold that throwing rest of the season away for the other 83 guys on the team just to get him reps is appropriate. His time will come soon enough.
I don’t think it would be the right move, it just seems like a very Kelly move.
I agree the question is not Book or PJ, as much as Book is going to frustrate me to no end going forward, there’s still a clear gap there. In some sense, given what we’ve seen with PJ the more interesting question for me is that when the change comes (probably next year?) will it be to PJ, or an underclassman?
The only other QB on the roster is Clark. Book is probably good enough to beat every team left on the schedule, assuming the rest of the tesm shows up. However, his ceiling is what it is. Roughly where what we have seen. THere may be some upside, but I don’t see the potential for a quantum leap.
PJ has been impressive at times, but also very worrisome at others. Clark looked good against Virginia.
While I doubt there is any real risk of Book being an NFL draft pick at this point, this year or next, if there is a risk he tries or would enter the portal, PJ has to get playing time to be ready for next year. It also has to be real playing time, not back-ups in garbage time. This would be equally true if we were 7-0 and Book was playing his way into being an NFL pick.
I would think it a non-zero chance, that all things held equal in an open competition that Brendan Clark would beat Jurkovec for a spot. Clark being totally unproven at the college level but he’s got a fairly good arm and athleticism at least.
Clark’s passes against UVA looked as good, or slightly better than Jurkovec’s passes.
Yeah, I saw Clark play in HS, obviously everyone’s a stud at that level but he rewrote records. I think his talents sort of fit the RPO and he can make the accurate quick pass that some other QBs have struggled with. (Assuming ND keeps that scheme). Not to say Jurkovec can’t, but his spiral does wobble and his feet aren’t great yet.
It’s pretty weird, I could see a case for any of the 3 QBs on the roster now to be the starter next year, depending on how things go in the next five months. (Obviously Clark isn’t going to start if Book stays, but who knows if he will). Nothing at this point would really surprise me. That’s kinda unsettling but what can ya do?
You know I wish the staff wouldn’t keep recruiting the same type of record setting high school QBs who get on campus and absolutely fall apart. Or maybe they should just get an actual QB coach.
Prister at II said on Thurs. podcast, that he does not think it a sure thing anymore that Jurkovec will be ahead of Clark on the depth chart come next fall.
Wow, all this focus on qb. Nobody mentioning the offensive line that was THE reason we couldn’t stay with Michigan from an offense standpoint.
So Book (and Patterson) sucked throwing in a rainstorm. Somehow Michigan’s lines didn’t mind the rain and beat the crap out of both our lines.
Which line will show up tomorrow?
I’ll give the line a bit of a pass. Michigan was stacking the box and just overloading the line. Their linebackers were firing into gaps as soon as the ball was snapped, playing run all the way. They figured out that Book can’t throw past the first down line or make reads if a slant isn’t open.
Kiwi, you’ve criticized the line just about every game this season, while defending Book at every turn.
It’s getting really weird.
VaTech’s QB is named Hooker, but it’s the Irish quarterback Kiwi wants to take home for the night.
I read somewhere that if you take out the UNM & BGSU games, Book’s QB rating is really bad.
Cant blame the line for Book’s mostly eh play today. He had plenty of time to pass, and for the first three quarters looked like he was *just* good enough to not get benched (and that’s in no small part due to a very timely, very bad late hit call).